Geology topics

Cyril J. Michel

Publications and source records attributed to Cyril J. Michel.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Evaluating reservoir passage and survival of juvenile Chinook Salmon to support reintroduction upstream of Shasta Dam, California

Objective Juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that are released upstream of Shasta Reservoir migrate more than 35 km to reach Shasta Dam, although survival through this system is poorly understood. We conducted a reservoir-scale acoustic telemetry study to quantify downstream movement and survival under seasonally variable environmental conditions to inform decisions about juvenile collection strategies for Chinook Salmon reintroduction above Shasta Dam. Methods A total of 656 hatchery-origin juvenile Chinook Salmon were acoustic-tagged, released near the mouth of the McCloud River, and monitored in Shasta Reservoir and the Sacramento River from September 2024 through March 2025 using an array of telemetry receivers. Results Most tagged fish failed to move downstream through the McCloud River Arm of Shasta Reservoir and arrive at Shasta Dam. Survival probabilities were estimated at 0.268 to the downstream end of the McCloud River Arm and 0.119 to Shasta Dam. For fish that did reach the dam, elapsed time from release to arrival was 66.4 d, and fish typically arrived and departed during daylight hours. Nine tagged juveniles were detected downstream of the dam, and three were later detected more than 500 km downstream. Conclusions The consistently low survival and restricted downstream movement provide important information indicating that downstream collection of juvenile Chinook Salmon should be focused in the lower McCloud River and the upper portion of the McCloud River Arm of Shasta Reservoir rather than at Shasta Dam.

California↗

USGS2020

Fish predation on a landscape scale

Predator–prey dynamics can have landscape-level impacts on ecosystems, and yet, spatial patterns and environmental predictors of predator–prey dynamics are often investigated at discrete locations, limiting our understanding of the broader impacts. At these broader scales, landscapes often contain multiple complex and heterogeneous habitats, requiring a spatially representative sampling design. This challenge is especially pronounced in California’s Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta, where managers require information on the landscape-scale impacts of non-native fish predators on multiple imperiled native prey fish populations. We quantified relative predation risk in the southern half of the Delta (South Delta) in 2017 using floating baited tethers that record the exact time and location of predation events. We selected 20 study sites using a generalized random tessellation stratified survey design, which allowed us to infer relationships between key environmental covariates and predation across a broader spatial scale than previous studies. Covariates included distance-to-nearest predators, water temperature, turbidity, depth, bottom slope, bottom roughness, water velocity, and distance-to-nearest riverbank and nearest aquatic vegetation bed. Model selection determined the covariates that best predicted relative predation risk: water temperature, time of day, mean predator distance, and river bottom roughness. Using this model, we estimated predation risk for the South Delta landscape at a 1-day and 1-km resolution. This effort identified hot spots of predation risk and allowed us to generate predicted survival for migrating fish transiting the South Delta. This methodology can be applied to other systems to evaluate spatio-temporal dynamics in predation risk, and their biotic and abiotic predictors.

California↗

USGS2020

Outmigration survival of wild Chinook salmon smolts through the Sacramento River during historic drought and high water conditions

Populations of wild spring-run Chinook salmon in California’s Central Valley, once numbering in the millions, have dramatically declined to record low numbers. Dam construction, habitat degradation, and altered flow regimes have all contributed to depress populations, which currently persist in only a few tributaries to the Sacramento River. Mill Creek (Tehama County) continues to support these threatened fish, and contains some of the most pristine spawning and rearing habitat available in the Central Valley. Despite this pristine habitat, the number of Chinook salmon returning to spawn has declined to record low numbers, likely due to poor outmigration survival rates. From 2013-2017, 334 smolts were captured and acoustic tagged while out-migrating from Mill Creek, allowing for movement and survival rates to be tracked over 250 kilometers through the Sacramento River. During this study California experienced both a historic drought and record rainfall, resulting in dramatic fluctuations in year-to-year river flow and water temperature. Cumulative survival of tagged smolts from Mill Creek through the Sacramento River was 9.5% (±1.6) during the study, with relatively low survival during historic drought conditions in 2015 (4.9% ± 1.6) followed by increased survival during high flows in 2017 (42.3% ± 9.1). Survival in Mill Creek and the Sacramento River was modeled over a range of flow values, which indicated that higher flows in each region result in increased survival rates. Survival estimates gathered in this study can help focus management and restoration actions over a relatively long migration corridor to specific regions of low survival, and provide guidance for management actions in the Sacramento River aimed at restoring populations of threatened Central Valley spring-run Chinook salmon.

California↗

USGS2019

Estimating spatial–temporal differences in Chinook salmon outmigration survival with habitat- and predation-related covariates

Low survival rates of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) smolts in California’s Central Valley have been attributed to multiple biological and physical factors, but it is not clear which factors have the largest impact. We used 5 years of acoustic telemetry data for 1709 late-fall Chinook salmon smolts to evaluate the effect of habitat- and predation-related covariates on outmigration survival through the Sacramento River. Using a Cormack–Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model, we estimated survival rates both as a function of covariates (covariate model) and as a function of river location and release year (spatial–temporal model). Our covariate model was overwhelmingly supported as the preferred model based on model selection criteria, suggesting the covariates adequately replicated spatial and temporal patterns in smolt survival. The covariates in the selected model included individual fish covariates, habitat-specific covariates, and temporally variable physical conditions. The most important covariate affecting salmon survival was flow. We describe the importance of these parameters in the context of juvenile salmon predation risk and suggest that additional research on predator distribution and density could improve model estimates.

California↗

USGS2018

Flow-mediated effects on travel time, routing, and survival of juvenile Chinook salmon in a spatially complex, tidally forced river delta

We evaluated the interacting influences of river flows and tides on travel time, routing, and survival of juvenile late-fall Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) migrating through the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta. To quantify these effects, we jointly modeled the travel time, survival, and migration routing in relation to individual time-varying covariates of acoustic-tagged salmon within a Bayesian framework. We used observed arrival times for detected individuals and imputed arrival times for undetected individuals to assign covariate values in each reach. We found travel time was inversely related to river inflow in all reaches, yet survival was positively related to inflow only in reaches that transitioned from bidirectional tidal flows to unidirectional flow with increasing inflows. We also found that the probability of fish entering the interior Delta, a low-survival reach, declined as inflow increased. Our study illustrates how river inflows interact with tides to influence fish survival during the critical transition between freshwater and ocean environments. Furthermore, our analytical framework introduces new techniques to integrate formally over missing covariate values to quantify effects of time-varying covariates.

California↗

USGS2011

Nutrient fluxes and the recent collapse of coastal California salmon populations

Migratory salmon move nutrients both in and out of fresh waters during the different parts of their life cycle. We used a mass-balance approach to quantify recent changes in phosphorus (P) fluxes in six coastal California, USA, watersheds that have recently experienced dramatic decreases in salmon populations. As adults, semelparous Chinook ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and coho ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) salmon imported 8.3 and 10.4 times more P from the ocean, respectively, than they exported as smolts, while iteroparous steelhead (i.e., sea-run rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss ) imported only 1.6 times more than they exported as kelts and smolts. Semelparous species whose life histories led them to import more nutrients were also the species whose populations decreased the most dramatically in California in recent years. In addition, the relationship between import and export was nonlinear, with export being proportionally more important at lower levels of import. This pattern was driven by two density-dependent processes — smolts were larger and disproportionately more abundant at lower spawner abundances. In fact, in four of our six streams we found evidence that salmon can drive net export of P at low abundance, evidence for the reversal of the "conveyor belt" of nutrients.

California↗