Geology topics

Cynthia Kroll

Publications and source records attributed to Cynthia Kroll.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Lessons in business recovery following the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence, Türkiye informed by women entrepreneurs

On 6 February 2023, Southern Türkiye was hit by devastating earthquakes, directly affecting over 14 million people in 11 cities, causing more than 50,000 deaths and the destruction of more than 800,000 buildings. This article goes beyond the physical damage imposed by the catastrophe to discuss the effects of the earthquakes on the operations of women-owned businesses. The mixed-method study with entrepreneurs belonging to a women’s business association operating in a moderately disrupted part of the region explores their struggles and recovery expectations. Thirty-five questionnaires were analyzed to identify the reasons for business closure, challenges, and needs faced in the post-disaster period and their recovery strategies. In addition, 23 entrepreneurs participated in roundtable discussions to provide a broader context to their responses to survey topics as well as lessons learned. Across both the survey and roundtables, while many respondents reported minor physical damage to their building, they also experienced financial and personal challenges from disruption to equipment, infrastructure, services, supply chains, institutional decisions, employee well-being, and customer base. Many used their business resources and personal savings to assist employees and others in the community. The women entrepreneurs often felt their recovery needs were ignored by government and private relief organizations and encountered barriers to receiving assistance from public and private institutions. Organizing together as women in business, even informally, provided mutual support during the crisis and recovery periods and catalyzed their role in support of their communities. The results illuminate functional community recovery as a balance of recovery of built infrastructure functionality and recovery of the broader social and economic fabric of the community.

southern Turkey↗

USGS2023

Methods and lessons for business resilience and recovery surveys

Surveys are important tools in business resilience and recovery research because of their ability to capture disaggregated economic information; however, they can be difficult and costly due to business operational dynamics and the larger challenges of disaster research. The COVID-19 pandemic serves as a recent example where demand for business data was high across both research and practice. Yet, the methods and modes for collecting data were limited due to safety, health, and ethical concerns. This research seeks to address the lack of tailored guidance for conducting business resilience and recovery surveys by collecting and synthesizing instruments and best practices from previous survey efforts. These previous surveys were undertaken by a diverse group of organizations with varied research questions, objectives, and hazard events of interest. This paper discusses six broad lessons: clearly define purpose, objectives, and concepts; recognize that response rates will be low, consider disaster dynamics in the research design, address bias that can be exacerbated by disasters, take care to acknowledge the unique ethical considerations of disaster resilience surveys in the business and economic context, and verify and validate data at all stages of the survey process. These lessons, in addition to the published instruments themselves, support researchers or practitioners who wish to conduct their own business resilience and recovery surveys in the future.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗

USGS2022

The economic effects of the HayWired Scenario using the association of Bay Area governments regional growth forecast—A focus on network disruption and resilience

This paper describes how impacts to infrastructure networks within the San Francisco Bay Area may exacerbate the effects of building damage and how policies addressing these networks can improve resilience before and after the earthquake. The analysis uses existing modeling techniques that underlie the Association of Bay Area Government’s (ABAG) 2015 regional economic forecast of the San Francisco Bay region, California to estimate how a moment magnitude (MW) 7.0 earthquake scenario along the Hayward Fault, HayWired, would change the trajectory of that forecast. The ABAG forecast released in January 2015 is built on the framework of a Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) model for the San Francisco Bay region and projects growth in the bay area through 2040. Using the simulation tools in the REMI model, the analysis applies the direct output losses flowing from building damages from the HayWired scenario (estimated using the FEMA Hazus model) to ABAG’s economic and demographic 2015 regional forecast. Also the analysis estimates direct, indirect, and induced effects on gross regional product (GRP), employment and population, and also highlights the effects of the physical infrastructure damage to roads, bridges, and rail to the region’s economy. Communications infrastructure, if resilient or restored, can help counteract the losses generated by building and transportation network damage. The REMI model results show that in the first year, employment would drop by almost half a million jobs, whereas GRP would decline by 8 percent. The two counties near the epicenter of the earthquake would have greater losses, of 15 percent in jobs and 13 percent in GRP. Counties with less physical damage may still have economic slowdowns due to transportation disruption. Much of the economy could recover within a few years, but a full return to the projected trajectory could take more than five years for the region and closer to a decade for the most severely affected counties. Recovery and rebuilding investments will be crucial to repairing the economic base of the region and returning it to its projected growth trajectory. State and local policies, as well as business and personal preparedness and employer flexibility in allowing remote work can reduce the length and severity of effects. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses using the model identify some critical factors that would lead to different levels of change. For example, a shortage of construction workers could result in a deeper, longer recession as rebuilding is postponed. Should major technology employers decide to relocate substantial portions of operations or expand outside of the region, the recovery period from the earthquake induced recession could stretch to six or seven years and the region’s trajectory could be permanently damped relative to the ABAG 2015 forecast for 2040.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2021

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Societal Consequences

The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), anticipates the impacts of a hypothetical moment magnitude 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The fault runs along the east side of California’s San Francisco Bay and is among the most active and dangerous in the United States, passing through a densely urbanized and interconnected region. A scientifically realistic scenario is one way to learn from a large earthquake before one occurs in the bay region. The USGS and its partners in the HayWired Coalition are working to energize residents and businesses to engage in new and ongoing efforts to prepare the region for such a future earthquake.

California↗