Geology topics

Craig T. Connolly

Publications and source records attributed to Craig T. Connolly.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Landscape controls river continuum dissolved organic carbon in northeastern Alaska

Rivers draining continuous permafrost landscapes on the North Slope of Alaska span from the mountains to the coast, integrating gradients in vegetation, soil organic matter, and hydrologic flow. We investigated how these landscape transitions influence dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations, radiocarbon ages, and export along the river continuum over seasonal timeframes in northeastern Alaska. Water samples were collected from the Canning River and its tributaries from the spring freshet through late summer via multiple campaigns during 2011–2024. A simulation from the Permafrost Water Balance Model (PWBM) estimated terrain-specific contributions to freshwater and DOC export. River DOC concentrations peaked during the spring and declined in summer, with episodic increases linked to summer rainfall. Summer river DOC concentrations from the Brooks Range remained low (0.41–0.64 mg C L −1 ) but increased downstream (0.5–3.0 mg C L −1 ), becoming younger from the mountains (805 yBP) to the river delta (525 yBP) as flow from DOC-enriched streams draining the foothills (6–18 mg C L −1 ; Modern yBP) entered the Canning. The PWBM simulation revealed that while the mountains dominate the Canning's annual (90%) and spring-summer (88%–93%) freshwater export, the foothills disproportionately influence its annual (56%) and spring-summer (44%–58%) DOC export. DOC yields from the coastal plain were also high but had little influence due to its small contributing area. Our findings highlight the outsized role of the foothills in modulating river-integrated DOC export to coastal ecosystems. Considering the impact of these landscapes on carbon source and runoff will aid in anticipating future DOC fluxes from Arctic rivers.

Alaska↗

USGS2026

Surface variable‐based machine learning for scalable arsenic prediction in undersampled areas

In the United States, private wells are not federally regulated, and many households do not test for Arsenic (As). Chronic exposure is linked with multiple health outcomes, and risk can change sharply over short distances and with well depth. Coarse maps or sparse sampling often miss exceedances. Most existing models operate at ∼1 km resolution and use groundwater chemistry or detailed geologic logs, which limits their use in undersampled areas where improved guidance is most needed. We overcome these limitations by developing a machine learning model for Minnesota, USA, that predicts As exposure risk using only surficial variables from remote sensing and global data sets. Variables related to surface water hydrology and geomorphology are selected based on mechanistic links that control redox conditions and As mobilization. Local training was essential, and surficial geology variables that are more sensitive to local conditions were needed to maximize model accuracy. The resulting complete model was sufficiently sensitive to generate accurate and detailed risk maps and depth profiles of As concentrations above the 10 μg/L maximum contaminant level. Accuracy depended on local training data density. We identified a training data density of 0.07 wells/km 2 as a practical target for stable county-level performance. Maps of exceedance probabilities highlight priority areas for testing that are particularly important in rural communities that have received less sampling. These results support public health action by guiding where to install wells and where to test them, how much new sampling is needed, and where treatment outreach is most urgent.

Minnesota↗

USGS2024

The dominance and growth of shallow groundwater resources in continuous permafrost environments

Water is a limited resource in Arctic watersheds with continuous permafrost because freezing conditions in winter and the impermeability of permafrost limit storage and connectivity between surface water and deep groundwater. However, groundwater can still be an important source of surface water in such settings, feeding springs and large aufeis fields that are abundant in cold regions and generating runoff when precipitation is rare. Whether groundwater is sourced from suprapermafrost taliks or deeper regional aquifers will impact water availability as the Arctic continues to warm and thaw. Previous research is ambiguous about the role of deep groundwater, leading to uncertainty regarding Arctic water availability and changing water resources. We analyzed chemistry and residence times of spring, stream, and river waters in the continuous permafrost zone of Alaska, spanning the mountains to the coastal plain. Water chemistry and age tracers show that surface waters are predominately sourced from recent precipitation and have short (<50 y) subsurface residence times. Remote sensing indicates trends in the areal extent of aufeis over the last 37 y, and correlations between aufeis extent and previous year summer temperature. Together, these data indicate that surface waters in continuous permafrost regions may be impacted by short flow paths and shallow suprapermafrost aquifers that are highly sensitive to climatic and hydrologic change over annual timescales. Despite the lack of connection to regional aquifers, continued warming and permafrost thaw may promote deepening of the shallow subsurface aquifers and creation of shallow taliks, providing some resilience to Arctic freshwater ecosystems.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS2021

Geochemistry of coastal permafrost and erosion-driven organic matter fluxes to the Beaufort Sea near Drew Point, Alaska

Accelerating erosion of the Alaska Beaufort Sea coast is increasing inputs of organic matter from land to the Arctic Ocean, and improved estimates of organic matter stocks in eroding coastal permafrost are needed to assess their mobilization rates under contemporary conditions. We collected three permafrost cores (4.5–7.5 m long) along a geomorphic gradient near Drew Point, Alaska, where recent erosion rates average 17.2 m year −1 . Down-core patterns indicate that organic-rich soils and lacustrine sediments (12–45% total organic carbon; TOC) in the active layer and upper permafrost accumulated during the Holocene. Deeper permafrost (below 3 m elevation) mainly consists of Late Pleistocene marine sediments with lower organic matter content (∼1% TOC), lower C:N ratios, and higher δ 13 C values. Radiocarbon-based estimates of organic carbon accumulation rates were 11.3 ± 3.6 g TOC m −2 year −1 during the Holocene and 0.5 ± 0.1 g TOC m −2 year −1 during the Late Pleistocene (12–38 kyr BP). Within relict marine sediments, porewater salinities increased with depth. Elevated salinity near sea level (∼20–37 in thawed samples) inhibited freezing despite year-round temperatures below 0°C. We used organic matter stock estimates from the cores in combination with remote sensing time-series data to estimate carbon fluxes for a 9 km stretch of coastline near Drew Point. Erosional fluxes of TOC averaged 1,369 kg C m −1 year −1 during the 21st century (2002–2018), nearly doubling the average flux of the previous half-century (1955–2002). Our estimate of the 21st century erosional TOC flux year −1 from this 9 km coastline (12,318 metric tons C year −1 ) is similar to the annual TOC flux from the Kuparuk River, which drains a 8,107 km 2 area east of Drew Point and ranks as the third largest river on the North Slope of Alaska. Total nitrogen fluxes via coastal erosion at Drew Point were also quantified, and were similar to those from the Kuparuk River. This study emphasizes that coastal erosion represents a significant pathway for carbon and nitrogen trapped in permafrost to enter modern biogeochemical cycles, where it may fuel food webs and greenhouse gas emissions in the marine environment.

Alaska↗