Geology topics
Craig D. Allen
Publications and source records attributed to Craig D. Allen.
Effects of biotic disturbances on forest carbon cycling in the United States and Canada
Forest insects and pathogens are major disturbance agents that have affected millions of hectares in North America in recent decades, implying significant impacts to the carbon (C) cycle. Here, we review and synthesize published studies of the effects of biotic disturbances on forest C cycling in the United States and Canada. Primary productivity in stands was reduced, sometimes considerably, immediately following insect or pathogen attack. After repeated growth reductions caused by some insects or pathogens or a single infestation by some bark beetle species, tree mortality occurred, altering productivity and decomposition. In the years following disturbance, primary productivity in some cases increased rapidly as a result of enhanced growth by surviving vegetation, and in other cases increased slowly because of lower forest regrowth. In the decades following tree mortality, decomposition increased as a result of the large amount of dead organic matter. Net ecosystem productivity decreased immediately following attack, with some studies reporting a switch to a C source to the atmosphere, and increased afterward as the forest regrew and dead organic matter decomposed. Large variability in C cycle responses arose from several factors, including type of insect or pathogen, time since disturbance, number of trees affected, and capacity of remaining vegetation to increase growth rates following outbreak. We identified significant knowledge gaps, including limited understanding of carbon cycle impacts among different biotic disturbance types (particularly pathogens), their impacts at landscape and regional scales, and limited capacity to predict disturbance events and their consequences for carbon cycling. We conclude that biotic disturbances can have major impacts on forest C stocks and fluxes and can be large enough to affect regional C cycling. However, additional research is needed to reduce the uncertainties associated with quantifying biotic disturbance effects on the North American C budget.
The effects of α-cellulose extraction and blue-stain fungus on retrospective studies of carbon and oxygen isotope variation in live and dead trees†
Tree-ring carbon and oxygen isotope ratios from live and recently dead trees may reveal important mechanisms of tree mortality. However, wood decay in dead trees may alter the δ 13 C and δ 18 O values of whole wood obscuring the isotopic signal associated with factors leading up to and including physiological death. We examined whole sapwood and α-cellulose from live and dead specimens of ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ), one-seed juniper ( Juniperous monosperma ), piñon pine ( Pinus edulis ) and white fir ( Abies concolor ), including those with fungal growth and beetle frass in the wood, to determine if α-cellulose extraction is necessary for the accurate interpretation of isotopic compositions in the dead trees. We found that the offset between the δ 13 C or δ 18 O values of α-cellulose and whole wood was the same for both live and dead trees across a large range of inter-annual and regional climate differences. The method of α-cellulose extraction, whether Leavitt-Danzer or Standard Brendel modified for small samples, imparts significant differences in the δ 13 C (up to 0.4‰) and δ 18 O (up to 1.2‰) of α-cellulose, as reported by other studies. There was no effect of beetle frass or blue-stain fungus ( Ophiostoma ) on the δ 13 C and δ 18 O of whole wood or α-cellulose. The relationships between whole wood and α-cellulose δ 13 C for ponderosa, piñon and juniper yielded slopes of ~1, while the relationship between δ 18 O of whole wood and α-cellulose was less clear. We conclude that there are few analytical or sampling obstacles to retrospective studies of isotopic patterns of tree mortality in forests of the western United States.
Climate-induced tree mortality: Earth system consequences
One of the greatest uncertainties in global environmental change is predicting changes in feedbacks between the biosphere and the Earth system. Terrestrial ecosystems and, in particular, forests exert strong controls on the global carbon cycle and influence regional hydrology and climatology directly through water and surface energy budgets [ Bonan , 2008; Chapin et al. , 2008]. According to new research, tree mortality associated with elevated temperatures and drought has the potential to rapidly alter forest ecosystems, potentially affecting feedbacks to the Earth system [ Allen et al. , 2010]. Several lines of recent research demonstrate how tree mortality rates in forests may be sensitive to climate change—particularly warming and drying. This emerging consequence of global change has important effects on Earth system processes (Figure 1).
Millennial precipitation reconstruction for the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico, reveals changing drought signal
Drought is a recurring phenomenon in the American Southwest. Since the frequency and severity of hydrologic droughts and other hydroclimatic events are of critical importance to the ecology and rapidly growing human population of this region, knowledge of long-term natural hydroclimatic variability is valuable for resource managers and policy-makers. An October–June precipitation reconstruction for the period AD 824–2007 was developed from multi-century tree-ring records of Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir), Pinus strobiformis (Southwestern white pine) and Pinus ponderosa (Ponderosa pine) for the Jemez Mountains in Northern New Mexico. Calibration and verification statistics for the period 1896–2007 show a high level of skill, and account for a significant portion of the observed variance (>50%) irrespective of which period is used to develop or verify the regression model. Split-sample validation supports our use of a reconstruction model based on the full period of reliable observational data (1896–2007). A recent segment of the reconstruction (2000–2006) emerges as the driest 7-year period sensed by the trees in the entire record. That this period was only moderately dry in precipitation anomaly likely indicates accentuated stress from other factors, such as warmer temperatures. Correlation field maps of actual and reconstructed October–June total precipitation, sea surface temperatures and 500-mb geopotential heights show characteristics that are similar to those indicative of El Niño–Southern Oscillation patterns, particularly with regard to ocean and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial and north Pacific. Our 1184-year reconstruction of hydroclimatic variability provides long-term perspective on current and 20th century wet and dry events in Northern New Mexico, is useful to guide expectations of future variability, aids sustainable water management, provides scenarios for drought planning and as inputs for hydrologic models under a broader range of conditions than those provided by historical climate records.
Extended megadroughts in the southwestern United States during Pleistocene interglacials
The potential for increased drought frequency and severity linked to anthropogenic climate change in the semi-arid regions of the southwestern United States (US) is a serious concern. Multi-year droughts during the instrumental period and decadal-length droughts of the past two millennia were shorter and climatically different from the future permanent, ‘dust-bowl-like’ megadrought conditions, lasting decades to a century, that are predicted as a consequence of warming. So far, it has been unclear whether or not such megadroughts occurred in the southwestern US, and, if so, with what regularity and intensity. Here we show that periods of aridity lasting centuries to millennia occurred in the southwestern US during mid-Pleistocene interglacials. Using molecular palaeotemperature proxies to reconstruct the mean annual temperature (MAT) in mid-Pleistocene lacustrine sediment from the Valles Caldera, New Mexico, we found that the driest conditions occurred during the warmest phases of interglacials, when the MAT was comparable to or higher than the modern MAT. A collapse of drought-tolerant C 4 plant communities during these warm, dry intervals indicates a significant reduction in summer precipitation, possibly in response to a poleward migration of the subtropical dry zone. Three MAT cycles ∼ 2 °C in amplitude occurred within Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 and seem to correspond to the muted precessional cycles within this interglacial. In comparison with MIS 11, MIS 13 experienced higher precessional-cycle amplitudes, larger variations in MAT (4–6 °C) and a longer period of extended warmth, suggesting that local insolation variations were important to interglacial climatic variability in the southwestern US. Comparison of the early MIS 11 climate record with the Holocene record shows many similarities and implies that, in the absence of anthropogenic forcing, the region should be entering a cooler and wetter phase.
Seeing the forest and the trees: USGS scientist links local changes to global scale
The recent recipient of two major awards, Craig D. Allen, a research ecologist with the U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center, has loved trees since childhood. He is now considered an expert of world renown on the twin phenomena of forest changes and tree mortality resulting from climate warming and drought, and in 2010 was twice recognized for his scientific contributions. In December 2010, Dr. Allen was named a 2010 Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science “for outstanding leadership in the synthesis of global forest responses to climate change, built from worldwide collaboration and a deep understanding of the environmental history of the southwestern United States.” In March 2010, he was honored with the Meritorious Service Award from the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) in recognition of his outstanding vision, initiative, and scientific contributions to the USGS, DOI, and U.S. Department of Agriculture in establishing a model science program to support adaptive land management at the new Valles Caldera National Preserve in north-central New Mexico. Dr. Allen has authored more than 85 publications on landscape ecology and landscape change, from fire history and ecology to ecosystem responses to climate change. He has appeared on NOVA discussing fire ecology and on The Discovery Channel and Discovery Canada explaining the links between drought-induced tree mortality and climate warming, in addition to being interviewed and quoted in innumerable newspaper articles on both topics. But how did this unassuming scientist grow from nurturing maple saplings on 40 acres in Wisconsin to understanding forest system stress worldwide?
Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in the southwestern United States
In recent decades, intense droughts, insect outbreaks, and wildfires have led to decreasing tree growth and increasing mortality in many temperate forests. We compared annual tree-ring width data from 1,097 populations in the coterminous United States to climate data and evaluated site-specific tree responses to climate variations throughout the 20th century. For each population, we developed a climate-driven growth equation by using climate records to predict annual ring widths. Forests within the southwestern United States appear particularly sensitive to drought and warmth. We input 21st century climate projections to the equations to predict growth responses. Our results suggest that if temperature and aridity rise as they are projected to, southwestern trees will experience substantially reduced growth during this century. As tree growth declines, mortality rates may increase at many sites. Increases in wildfires and bark-beetle outbreaks in the most recent decade are likely related to extreme drought and high temperatures during this period. Using satellite imagery and aerial survey data, we conservatively calculate that ≈2.7% of southwestern forest and woodland area experienced substantial mortality due to wildfires from 1984 to 2006, and ≈7.6% experienced mortality associated with bark beetles from 1997 to 2008. We estimate that up to ≈18% of southwestern forest area (excluding woodlands) experienced mortality due to bark beetles or wildfire during this period. Expected climatic changes will alter future forest productivity, disturbance regimes, and species ranges throughout the Southwest. Emerging knowledge of these impending transitions informs efforts to adaptively manage southwestern forests.
A 15 000-year record of climate change in northern New Mexico, USA, inferred from isotopic and elemental contents of bog sediments
Elemental (C, N, Pb) and isotopic ( δ 13 C, δ 15 N) measurements of cored sediment from a small bog in northern New Mexico reveal changes in climate during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. Abrupt increases in Pb concentration and δ 13 C values ca. 14 420 cal. YBP indicate significant runoff to the shallow lake that existed at that time. Weathering and transport of local volcanic rocks resulted in the delivery of Pb-bearing minerals to the basin, while a 13 C-enriched terrestrial vegetation source increased the δ 13 C values of the sedimentary material. Wet conditions developed over a 300 a period and lasted for a few hundred years. The Younger Dryas period (ca. 12 700–11 500 cal. YBP) caused a reduction in terrestrial productivity reflected in decreasing C/N values, δ 15 N values consistently greater than 0‰ and low organic content. By contrast, aquatic productivity increased during the second half of this period, evidenced by increasing δ 13 C values at the time of highest abundance of algae. Dry conditions ca. 8 000–6 000 cal. YBP were characterised by low organic carbon content and high Pb concentrations, the latter suggesting enhanced erosion and aeolian transport of volcanic rock. The range in δ 13 C, δ 15 N and C/N values in the sedimentary record fall within the range of modern plants, except during the periods of runoff and drought. The sedimentary record provides evidence of natural climate variability in northern New Mexico, including short- (multi-centennial) and long-(millennial) term episodes during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene.
A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests
Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world's forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.
Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change
Past and present climate has shaped the valued ecosystems currently protected in parks and reserves, but future climate change will redefine these conditions. Continued conservation as climate changes will require thinking differently about resource management than we have in the past; we present some logical steps and tools for doing so. Three critical tenets underpin future management plans and activities: (1) climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future; (2) climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats; (3) specific management actions may help increase the resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable. Science-based management will be necessary because past experience may not serve as a guide for novel future conditions. Identifying resources and processes at risk, defining thresholds and reference conditions, and establishing monitoring and assessment programs are among the types of scientific practices needed to support a broadened portfolio of management activities. In addition to the control and hedging management strategies commonly in use today, we recommend adaptive management wherever possible. Adaptive management increases our ability to address the multiple scales at which species and processes function, and increases the speed of knowledge transfer among scientists and managers. Scenario planning provides a broad forward-thinking framework from which the most appropriate management tools can be chosen. The scope of climate change effects will require a shared vision among regional partners. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as an ecological challenge.
Fire in the southwest: Integrating fire into management of changing ecosystems
No abstract available.
A conceptual framework for dryland aeolian sediment transport along the grassland–forest continuum: Effects of woody plant canopy cover and disturbance
Aeolian processes are of particular importance in dryland ecosystems where ground cover is inherently sparse because of limited precipitation. Dryland ecosystems include grassland, shrubland, savanna, woodland, and forest, and can be viewed collectively as a continuum of woody plant cover spanning from grasslands with no woody plant cover up to forests with nearly complete woody plant cover. Along this continuum, the spacing and shape of woody plants determine the spatial density of roughness elements, which directly affects aeolian sediment transport. Despite the extensiveness of dryland ecosystems, studies of aeolian sediment transport have generally focused on agricultural fields, deserts, or highly disturbed sites where rates of transport are likely to be greatest. Until recently, few measurements have been made of aeolian sediment transport over multiple wind events and across a variety of types of dryland ecosystems. To evaluate potential trends in aeolian sediment transport as a function of woody plant cover, estimates of aeolian sediment transport from recently published studies, in concert with rates from four additional locations (two grassland and two woodland sites), are reported here. The synthesis of these reports leads to the development of a new conceptual framework for aeolian sediment transport in dryland ecosystems along the grassland–forest continuum. The findings suggest that: (1) for relatively undisturbed ecosystems, shrublands have inherently greater aeolian sediment transport because of wake interference flow associated with intermediate levels of density and spacing of woody plants; and (2) for disturbed ecosystems, the upper bound for aeolian sediment transport decreases as a function of increasing amounts of woody plant cover because of the effects of the height and density of the canopy on airflow patterns and ground cover associated with woody plant cover. Consequently, aeolian sediment transport following disturbance spans the largest range of rates in grasslands and associated systems with no woody plants (e.g., agricultural fields), an intermediate range in shrublands, and a relatively small range in woodlands and forests. These trends are consistent with previous observations relating large rates of wind erosion to intermediate values for spatial density of roughness elements. The framework for aeolian sediment transport, which is also relevant to dust fluxes, wind erosion, and related aeolian processes, is applicable to a diverse suite of environmental challenges, including land degradation and desertification, dust storms, contaminant transport, and alterations of the hydrological cycle.
Historical and modern disturbance regimes, stand structures, and landscape dynamics in piñon-juniper vegetation of the western United States
Piñon–juniper is a major vegetation type in western North America. Effective management of these ecosystems has been hindered by inadequate understanding of 1) the variability in ecosystem structure and ecological processes that exists among the diverse combinations of piñons, junipers, and associated shrubs, herbs, and soil organisms; 2) the prehistoric and historic disturbance regimes; and 3) the mechanisms driving changes in vegetation structure and composition during the past 150 yr. This article summarizes what we know (and don't know) about three fundamentally different kinds of piñon–juniper vegetation. Persistent woodlands are found where local soils, climate, and disturbance regimes are favorable for piñon, juniper, or a mix of both; fires have always been infrequent in these woodlands. Piñon–juniper savannas are found where local soils and climate are suitable for both trees and grasses; it is logical that low-severity fires may have maintained low tree densities before disruption of fire regimes following Euro-American settlement, but information is insufficient to support any confident statements about historical disturbance regimes in these savannas. Wooded shrublands are found where local soils and climate support a shrub community, but trees can increase during moist climatic conditions and periods without disturbance and decrease during droughts and following disturbance. Dramatic increases in tree density have occurred in portions of all three types of piñon–juniper vegetation, although equally dramatic mortality events have also occurred in some areas. The potential mechanisms driving increases in tree density—such as recovery from past disturbance, natural range expansion, livestock grazing, fire exclusion, climatic variability, and CO 2 fertilization—generally have not received enough empirical or experimental investigation to predict which is most important in any given location. The intent of this synthesis is 1) to provide a source of information for managers and policy makers; and 2) to stimulate researchers to address the most important unanswered questions.
Climate-induced forest dieback: An escalating global phenomenon?
Forests, which today cover 30 percent of the world’s land surface (FAO, 2006), are being rapidly and directly transformed in many areas by the impacts of expanding human populations and economies. Less evident are the pervasive effects of ongoing climatic changes on the condition and status of forests around the world. Recent examples of drought and heat-related forest stress and dieback (defined here as tree mortality noticeably above usual mortality levels) are being documented from all forested continents, making it possible to begin to see global patterns. This article introduces these patterns and considers the possibility that many forests and woodlands today are at increasing risk of climate-induced dieback. A more comprehensive article (Allen et al. , 2009) addresses this topic in considerably greater detail. While climate events can damage forests in many ways ranging from ice storms to tornadoes and hurricanes, the emphasis here is on climatic water stress, driven by drought and warm temperatures.
Tree die-off in response to global change-type drought: Mortality insights from a decade of plant water potential measurements
Global climate change is projected to produce warmer, longer, and more frequent droughts, referred to here as “global change-type droughts”, which have the potential to trigger widespread tree die-off. However, drought-induced tree mortality cannot be predicted with confidence, because long-term field observations of plant water stress prior to, and culminating in, mortality are rare, precluding the development and testing of mechanisms. Here, we document plant water stress in two widely distributed, co-occurring species, piñon pine ( Pinus edulis ) and juniper ( Juniperus monosperma ), over more than a decade, leading up to regional-scale die-off of piñon pine trees in response to global change-related drought. Piñon leaf water potentials remained substantially below their zero carbon assimilation point for at least 10 months prior to dying, in contrast to those of juniper, which rarely dropped below their zero-assimilation point. These data suggest that piñon mortality was driven by protracted water stress, leading to carbon starvation and associated increases in susceptibility to other disturbances (eg bark beetles), a finding that should help to improve predictions of mortality during drought.
Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: Why do some plants survive while others succumb to drought?
Severe droughts have been associated with regional-scale forest mortality worldwide. Climate change is expected to exacerbate regional mortality events; however, prediction remains difficult because the physiological mechanisms underlying drought survival and mortality are poorly understood. We developed a hydraulically based theory considering carbon balance and insect resistance that allowed development and examination of hypotheses regarding survival and mortality. Multiple mechanisms may cause mortality during drought. A common mechanism for plants with isohydric regulation of water status results from avoidance of drought-induced hydraulic failure via stomatal closure, resulting in carbon starvation and a cascade of downstream effects such as reduced resistance to biotic agents. Mortality by hydraulic failure per se may occur for isohydric seedlings or trees near their maximum height. Although anisohydric plants are relatively drought-tolerant, they are predisposed to hydraulic failure because they operate with narrower hydraulic safety margins during drought. Elevated temperatures should exacerbate carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. Biotic agents may amplify and be amplified by drought-induced plant stress. Wet multidecadal climate oscillations may increase plant susceptibility to drought-induced mortality by stimulating shifts in hydraulic architecture, effectively predisposing plants to water stress. Climate warming and increased frequency of extreme events will probably cause increased regional mortality episodes. Isohydric and anisohydric water potential regulation may partition species between survival and mortality, and, as such, incorporating this hydraulic framework may be effective for modeling plant survival and mortality under future climate conditions.
Holocene vegetation and fire regimes in subalpine and mixed conifer forests, southern Rocky Mountains, USA
Our understanding of the present forest structure of western North America hinges on our ability to determine antecedent forest conditions. Sedimentary records from lakes and bogs in the southern Rocky Mountains of Colorado and New Mexico provide information on the relationships between climate and vegetation change, and fire history since deglaciation. We present a new pollen record from Hunters Lake (Colorado) as an example of a high-elevation vegetation history from the southern Rockies. We then present a series of six sedimentary records from ???2600 to 3500-m elevation, including sites presently at the alpine?subalpine boundary, within the Picea engelmannii?Abies lasiocarpa forest and within the mixed conifer forest, to determine the history of fire in high-elevation forests there. High Artemisia and low but increasing percentages of Picea and Pinus suggest vegetation prior to 13 500 calendar years before present (cal yr BP) was tundra or steppe, with open spruce woodland to ???11 900 cal yr BP. Subalpine forest (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa) existed around the lake for the remainder of the Holocene. At lower elevations, Pinus ponderosa and/or contorta expanded 11 900 to 10 200 cal yr BP; mixed conifer forest expanded ???8600 to 4700 cal yr BP; and Pinus edulis expanded after ???4700 cal yr BP. Sediments from lake sites near the alpine?subalpine transition contained five times less charcoal than those entirely within subalpine forests, and 40 times less than bog sites within mixed conifer forest. Higher fire episode frequencies occurred between ???12 000 and 9000 cal yr BP (associated with the initiation or expansion of south-west monsoon and abundant lightning, and significant biomass during vegetation turnover) and at ???2000?1000 cal yr BP (related to periodic droughts during the long-term trend towards wetter conditions and greater biomass). Fire episode frequencies for subalpine?alpine transition and subalpine sites were on average 5 to 10 fire events/1000 years over the Holocene, corresponding to one fire event every ???100 to 200 years. (5) Our Holocene-length sedimentary charcoal records provide additional evidence for the anomalous nature of the 20th-century fire regime, where fires were largely suppressed as a national policy. ?? IAWF 2008.