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Craig D. Allen

Publications and source records attributed to Craig D. Allen.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Simulated increases in fire activity reinforce shrub conversion in a southwestern US forest

Fire exclusion in historically frequent-fire forests of the southwestern United States has altered forest structure and increased the probability of high-severity fire. Warmer and drier conditions, coupled with dispersal distance limitations, are impeding tree seedling establishment and survival following high-severity fire. High-severity patches are commonly dominated by non-forest vegetation, a state that can be reinforced by subsequent fire events. We sought to determine the influence of fire probability on post-fire vegetation development in a severely burned landscape in New Mexico, USA. We used LANDIS-II to simulate three fire probability scenarios—historical fire probability, contemporary fire probability, and the mean of the two—with contemporary climate. As fire probability increased, the mean size of the largest fires and the mean landscape fire severity increased. These changes in fire characteristics resulted in decreased total aboveground biomass and photosynthetic capacity on the landscape after 50 years. Additionally, the distribution of individual species biomass shifted, with early successional species, especially those that resprout after fire, increasing as a fraction of total biomass with increasing fire occurrence. Counter to empirical data, our simulations did not show a conifer establishment limitation, suggesting a source of uncertainty that will need to be addressed to improve projections of forest dynamics under future climate. Even without limited conifer regeneration, continued increases in fire frequency are likely to favor resprouting species and result in a loss of forest biomass and ecosystem productivity in this southwestern forest landscape.

New Mexico↗

Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world

Forest dynamics arise from the interplay of environmental drivers and disturbances with the demographic processes of recruitment, growth, and mortality, subsequently driving biomass and species composition. However, forest disturbances and subsequent recovery are shifting with global changes in climate and land use, altering these dynamics. Changes in environmental drivers, land use, and disturbance regimes are forcing forests toward younger, shorter stands. Rising carbon dioxide, acclimation, adaptation, and migration can influence these impacts. Recent developments in Earth system models support increasingly realistic simulations of vegetation dynamics. In parallel, emerging remote sensing datasets promise qualitatively new and more abundant data on the underlying processes and consequences for vegetation structure. When combined, these advances hold promise for improving the scientific understanding of changes in vegetation demographics and disturbances.

Science↗

Spatio-temporal variability of human-fire interactions on the Navajo Nation

Unraveling the effects of climate and land-use on historical fire regimes provides important insights into broader human-fire-climate dynamics, which are necessary for ecologically-based forest management. We developed a spatial human land-use model for Navajo Nation forests across which we sampled a network of tree-ring fire history sites to reflect contrasting historical land-use intensity: high human use, primarily in the Chuska Mountains, and low human use, primarily on the central Defiance Plateau. We tested for and compared human- and climate-driven changes in the fire regimes by applying change point detection, regression, and superposed epoch analyses. The historical fire regimes and fire-climate relationships reflect those of similar forests regionally, and are similar between the two Navajo landscapes until the early 1800s. We then determined that a previously identified, localized, early (1830s) decline in fire activity was geographically widespread across higher human use sites. In contrast, fires continued to burn uninterrupted through this period at the lower use sites. Though the 1830s included significantly wet and cold periods that could have contributed to fire regime decline, human factors pose a more spatio-temporally consistent explanation. A rise in Navajo pastoralism in the 1820s-1830s was concentrated seasonally in the heavy use sites. By the 1880s, livestock numbers more than doubled, grazing became far more spatially widespread, and frequent fire regimes of Navajo forests collapsed. The last widespread fire recorded on either landscape was in 1886. In the Chuska Mountains, livestock and fire co-existed for over 50 years between the initial 1832 fire decline and the end of frequent fires after 1886, an exceptional pattern in the western US. Though unique in its timing, character, and spatial dynamics, the collapse of historical fire regimes in Navajo forests contributed to now over a century without frequent surface fire, leaving Navajo forests at risk for large, uncharacteristic high-severity fires.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

Climate, environment, and disturbance history govern resilience of western North American Forests

Before the advent of intensive forest management and fire suppression, western North American forests exhibited a naturally occurring resistance and resilience to wildfires and other disturbances. Resilience, which encompasses resistance, reflects the amount of disruption an ecosystem can withstand before its structure or organization qualitatively shift to a different basin of attraction. In fire-maintained forests, resilience to disturbance events arose primarily from vegetation pattern-disturbance process interactions at several levels of organization. Using evidence from 15 ecoregions, spanning forests from Canada to Mexico, we review the properties of forests that reinforced qualities of resilience and resistance. We show examples of multi-level landscape resilience, of feedbacks within and among levels, and how conditions have changed under climatic and management influences. We highlight geographic similarities and important differences in the structure and organization of historical landscapes, their forest types, and in the conditions that have changed resilience and resistance to abrupt or large-scale disruptions. We discuss the role of the regional climate in episodically or abruptly reorganizing plant and animal biogeography and forest resilience and resistance to disturbances. We give clear examples of these changes and suggest that managing for resilient forests is a construct that strongly depends on scale and human social values. It involves human communities actively working with the ecosystems they depend on, and the processes that shape them, to adapt landscapes, species, and human communities to climate change while maintaining core ecosystem processes and services. Finally, it compels us to embrace management approaches that incorporate ongoing disturbances and anticipated effects of climatic changes, and to support dynamically shifting patchworks of forest and non-forest. Doing so could make these shifting forest conditions and wildfire regimes less disruptive to individuals and society.

western North America↗

Mechanisms of a coniferous refugium persistence under drought and heat

Predictions of warmer droughts causing increasing forest mortality are becoming abundant, yet few studies have investigated the mechanisms of forest persistence. To examine the resistance of forests to warmer droughts, we used a five-year precipitation reduction (~45% removal), heat (+4 °C above ambient) and combined drought and heat experiment in an isolated stand of mature Pinus edulis-Juniperus monosperma . Despite severe experimental drought and heating, no trees died, and we observed only minor evidence of hydraulic failure or carbon starvation. Two mechanisms promoting survival were supported. First, access to bedrock water, or 'hydraulic refugia' aided trees in their resistance to the experimental conditions. Second, the isolation of this stand amongst a landscape of dead trees precluded ingress by Ips confusus , frequently the ultimate biotic mortality agent of piñon. These combined abiotic and biotic landscape-scale processes can moderate the impacts of future droughts on tree mortality by enabling tree avoidance of hydraulic failure, carbon starvation, and exposure to attacking abiotic agents.

Environmental Research Letters↗

To what extent is drought-induced tree mortality a natural phenomenon?

Aim Catastrophic forest mortality due to more extreme rainfall deficits and higher temperatures under future climate scenarios has been predicted. The aim of this study is to explore the magnitude of historical drought-induced tree mortality under pre-warming conditions. Location North-eastern Australia. Time period 1845–2017. Major taxa studied Trees. Methods Field survey, historical analysis and climate analysis. Results We present evidence of 18%–30% tree mortality from recent droughts across three regions of north-eastern Australia with rainfall deficits less severe than earlier historical droughts. The corrected temperature record represents modest warming at the stations with long records in the vicinity of the study areas. In terms of rainfall deficit the most severe drought on record occurred in the early 20th century, and historical evidence confirms that this drought and earlier droughts before the advent of pastoralism coincided with substantial tree mortality. Main conclusions Dramatic declines in woody biomass in response to drought historically occurred more than once a century and are a natural phenomenon in semi-arid Australia. The magnitude of drought-induced tree mortality under natural climate fluctuations requires further investigation in other continents. Widespread drought-induced tree mortality is not just a recent global change phenomenon and has been underestimated as a natural ecological process. However, even more severe forest die-off events from more extreme hotter droughts are predicted if Earth’s warming proceeds as currently projected.

Queensland↗

Rapid broad-scale ecosystem changes and their consequences for biodiversity

Biodiversity contributes to and depends on ecosystem structure and associated function. Ecosystem structure, such as the amount and type of tree cover, influences fundamental abiotic variables such as near-ground incoming solar radiation (e.g., Royer et al. 2011), which in turn affects species and associated biodiversity (e.g., Trotter et al. 2008). In many systems, foundational, dominant, or keystone species (or species groups) are important in determining biodiversity, often because of their role in determining ecosystem structure. At spatial scales ranging from ecosystems to regions and larger, structural characteristics of vegetation or other structurally dominant organisms such as corals can influence species diversity, whether focused on alpha diversity (mean species diversity at the habitat level), beta diversity (differentiation among habitats), or gamma diversity (total species diversity across a landscape; Whittaker 1960). Climate change is projected to alter ecosystems at broad scales. In many cases, this will be due to extreme climate events such as droughts, floods and hurricanes, the effects of which can be rapid (IPCC 2012). Consequently, rapid broad-scale changes in ecosystems are of increasing concern. Climate change can directly affect species physiology, phenology, and distribution, as highlighted throughout this book (e.g. Citations to chapters in this volume to be added). Changes in one species can also affect other species (Cahill et al. 2013), particularly when dominant or co-dominant species that collectively provide habitat for other species are impacted (e.g. tree canopy architecture in many forest ecosystems; coral species via their reefs). Several rapid ecological changes have occurred at spatial scales that are sufficiently broad enough to represent biome changes (Gonzalez et al. 2010, Settele et al. 2014; Fig. 1 A). Rapid broad-scale changes differ from other patterns of vegetation dynamics in that they result in a “crash” in one or more populations (Breshears et al. 2008) over large areas of the affected region. Rapid broad-scale changes triggered by climate can include mega-fires; drought-triggered tree die-off and associated pest and pathogen outbreaks (Breshears et al. 2005, Safranyik et al. 2007); and hurricanes and wind-throw events (IPCC 2012, 2014). These rapid broad-scale changes can rapidly alter other factors such as resultant microclimate, which in turn can affect numerous other species and associated biodiversity (Royer et al. 2011; Fig. 1B). Many examples of broad-scale changes are documented in the paleoecology literature (Settele et al. 2014), although the temporal resolution at which those events can be resolved is relatively coarse (often centuries or longer). Such broad-scale changes documented in the paleoecology literature provide examples of types of change are likely to be of increasing concern in the future (Settele et al. 2014). Contemporary events have highlighted that broad-scale changes can occur rapidly (years or less; Breshears et al. 2005, Gonzalez et al. 2010, Settele et al. 2014). These rapid broad-scale changes will have important consequences for biodiversity beyond the direct impacts of climate change through the cascading effects associated with ecosystem structural and functional changes. The objective of this chapter is to alert readers to recent and projected rapid ecosystem changes and their potential consequences for biodiversity at ecosystem, landscape and regional scales.

Book chapter↗

A dirty dozen ways to die: Metrics and modifiers of mortality driven by drought and warming for a tree species

Tree mortality events driven by drought and warmer temperature, often amplified by pests and pathogens, are emerging as one of the predominant climate change impacts on plants. Understanding and predicting widespread tree mortality events in the future is vital as they affect ecosystem goods and services provided by forests and woodlands, including carbon storage needed to help offset warming. Additionally, if extensive enough, tree die-off events can influence not only local climate but also climate and vegetation elsewhere via ecoclimate teleconnections. Consequently, recent efforts have focused on improving predictions of tree mortality. One of the most commercially important genera of trees is Pinus , and the most studied species globally for drought-induced tree mortality is piñon pine, Pinus edulis . Numerous metrics have been developed in association with predicting mortality thresholds or variations in mortality for this species. In this article, we compiled metrics associated with drought and warming related mortality that were developed for P. edulis or for which P. edulis was a key example species used in a calculation or prediction. We grouped these metrics into three categories: (i) those related to simple climate variables, (ii) those related to physiological responses, and (iii) those that require multi-step calculations or modeling using climate, ecohydrological, and/or ecophysiological data; and we identified the spatial-temporal scale of each of these metrics. We also compiled factors shown to modify rates or sensitivities of mortality. The metrics to predict mortality include empirical ones which often have implicit linkages to expected mechanisms, and more mechanistic ones related to physiological drivers. The metrics for P. edulis have similarities with those available for other species of Pinus . Expected future mortality events will provide an opportunity to observationally and experimentally test and compare these metrics related to tree mortality for P. edulis via near-term ecological forecasting. The metrics for P. edulis may also be useful as potential analogs for other genera. Improving predictions of tree mortality for this species and others will be increasingly important as an aid to move toward anticipatory management.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change↗

Research frontiers for improving our understanding of drought‐induced tree and forest mortality

Accumulating evidence highlights increased mortality risks for trees during severe drought, particularly under warmer temperatures and increasing vapour pressure deficit (VPD). Resulting forest die‐off events have severe consequences for ecosystem services, biophysical and biogeochemical land–atmosphere processes. Despite advances in monitoring, modelling and experimental studies of the causes and consequences of tree death from individual tree to ecosystem and global scale, a general mechanistic understanding and realistic predictions of drought mortality under future climate conditions are still lacking. We update a global tree mortality map and present a roadmap to a more holistic understanding of forest mortality across scales. We highlight priority research frontiers that promote: (1) new avenues for research on key tree ecophysiological responses to drought; (2) scaling from the tree/plot level to the ecosystem and region; (3) improvements of mortality risk predictions based on both empirical and mechanistic insights; and (4) a global monitoring network of forest mortality. In light of recent and anticipated large forest die‐off events such a research agenda is timely and needed to achieve scientific understanding for realistic predictions of drought‐induced tree mortality. The implementation of a sustainable network will require support by stakeholders and political authorities at the international level.

New Phytologist↗

Drivers and mechanisms of tree mortality in moist tropical forests

Tree mortality rates appear to be increasing in moist tropical forests (MTFs) with significant carbon cycle consequences. Here, we review the state of knowledge regarding MTF tree mortality, create a conceptual framework with testable hypotheses regarding the drivers, mechanisms and interactions that may underlie increasing MTF mortality rates, and identify the next steps for improved understanding and reduced prediction. Increasing mortality rates are associated with rising temperature and vapor pressure deficit, liana abundance, drought, wind events, fire and, possibly, CO 2 fertilization‐induced increases in stand thinning or acceleration of trees reaching larger, more vulnerable heights. The majority of these mortality drivers may kill trees in part through carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. The relative importance of each driver is unknown. High species diversity may buffer MTFs against large‐scale mortality events, but recent and expected trends in mortality drivers give reason for concern regarding increasing mortality within MTFs. Models of tropical tree mortality are advancing the representation of hydraulics, carbon and demography, but require more empirical knowledge regarding the most common drivers and their subsequent mechanisms. We outline critical datasets and model developments required to test hypotheses regarding the underlying causes of increasing MTF mortality rates, and improve prediction of future mortality under climate change.

New Phytologist↗

Limits to ponderosa pine regeneration following large high-severity forest fires in the United States Southwest

High-severity fires in dry conifer forests of the United States Southwest have created large (>1000 ha) treeless areas that are unprecedented in the regional historical record. These fires have reset extensive portions of Southwestern ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Lawson & C. Lawson var. scopulorum Engelm.) forest landscapes. At least two recovery options following high-severity fire are emerging. One option is for post-fire successional pathways to move toward a return to the pre-fire forest type. Alternatively, an area may transition to persistent non-forested ecosystems. We studied regeneration patterns of ponderosa pine following eight fires in Arizona and New Mexico, USA, that burned in dry conifer forests dominated by ponderosa pine during a recent 18-year regional drought period, 1996 to 2013. Our a priori hypotheses were: 1) the most xeric areas within these severely burned dry conifer forests are least likely to regenerate to the pre-fire forest type due to persistent post-fire moisture stress; and 2) areas farther away from conifer seed sources have a lower likelihood of regeneration, even if these areas are climatically favorable for post-fire ponderosa pine establishment. We evaluated our hypotheses using empirical data and generalized linear mixed-effects models. We found that low-elevation, xeric sites are more limiting to conifer regeneration than higher-elevation mesic sites. Areas >150 m from a seed source are much less likely to have ponderosa pine regeneration. Spatial interpolations of modeled post-fire regeneration of ponderosa pine across the study landscapes indicate expansive areas with low likelihood of pine regeneration following high-severity fire. We discuss multiple post-fire successional pathways following high-severity fire, including potentially stable transitions to non-forest vegetation types that may represent long-term type conversions. These findings regarding landscape changes in Southwest forests in response to fires and post-fire regeneration patterns during early-stage climate warming contribute to the development of better-informed ecosystem management strategies for forest adaptation or mitigation under projected hotter droughts in this region.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

Monitoring global tree mortality patterns and trends. Report from the VW symposium ‘Crossing scales and disciplines to identify global trends of tree mortality as indicators of forest health’

From the 21stto the 23rdJune 2017, the Herrenhausen castle inHannover/Germany hosted a diverse and large crowd with morethan 70 tree physiologists, forest ecologists, forest inventoryexperts, remote-sensing scientists, and vegetation modele rs. Par-ticipants from six continent s and from more than 20 countriesgathered to discuss how to improve the scientific determination ofglobal-scale patterns, drivers, and trends of a threatening phe-nomenon: the apparent emergence of recent widespread treemortality events in diverse forests around the world.Continuin g the theme of a workshop held at the Max-PlanckInstitute for Biogeochemistry in Jena (Germany) in 2014 (Hart-mann et al., 2015), the Hanover meeting intended to developapproaches, tools and collaborative actions to accelerate progress inaddressing regional patterns and trends of tree mortality (Williamset al., 2013). Over the last decade climate change related treemortality events have been increasingly reported around the globe(van Mantgem et al., 2009; Carnicer et al., 2011; Peng et al., 2011;Brienen et al., 2015), but to what degree this is a global trend,amplifying under increasing climate change, remains uncertain.

New Phytologist↗

A statement of common ground regarding the role of wildfire in forested landscapes of the western United States

For millennia, wildfires have markedly influenced forests and non-forested landscapes of the western United States (US), and they are increasingly seen as having substantial impacts on society and nature. There is growing concern over what kinds and amounts of fire will achieve desirable outcomes and limit harmful effects on people and nature. Moreover, the increasing complexity surrounding cost and management of wildfires suggests that science should play a more prominent role in informing decisions about the need for fire in nature, and the need for society to adapt to the inevitable occurrence of different kinds and amounts of fire and smoke. Scientists widely view the natural wildfire regime as essential to western US forest ecosystem functioning. However, debates continue over how much low-, moderate-, and high severity fire is “natural” or desirable in these forests. Ongoing disagreement centers on the characteristics and importance of historical proportions and patch size distributions of low-, moderate-, and high-severity fires of dry, moist, and cold forests, and on the ecological consequences of changing fire-patch patterns and relative abundances. Scientists also debate the relative importance of climate and extreme weather versus fuel as drivers of high-severity fire, as well as the effectiveness and value of fuel treatments for reducing risks of undesired fire effects. Climate research shows that we should expect shifting future climates in all ecoregions. These expected changes make it difficult for scientists, land managers, and decision-makers to know the degree to which future forest management should be informed by historical conditions. There also is disagreement about how to make western forests more resilient to future disruptions in both climatic and fire regimes. To complicate matters, areas of scientific agreement -- the “common ground” shared by those in the research community -- are poorly articulated. Thus, the focus of the Fire Research Consensus (FRC) project has been to identify common ground among scientists, and provide a summary that can inform management. Land and fire managers are one audience for this report, as are stakeholders and the interested public. Our analysis, which results from extensive scientific literature reviews and questionnaires sent to western fire scientists and land managers, is summarized in nine key topics: A. Fire history and fire ecology vary with geography. B. Human impacts and management history vary with geography. C. Fire is a keystone process, which occurs in almost all western US forest types. D. Knowledge of historical range of variability (HRV) is useful but does not dictate land management goals. E. Forest structure, composition, and fuels have changed, affecting burn severity and fire extent. F. Climate and fuels both influence current fire sizes and their severities. G. The role of changing climatic conditions is increasingly important. H. Multiple fire ecology and fire history research approaches can be useful for characterizing fire regimes. I. Many existing fire management tools and strategies can be useful moving forward. We found much common ground that will be useful to scientists, managers, citizens, and policy decision-makers. For example, there is wide agreement among scientists that fire is one of the most essential influences on western forests and that more fire is needed on most landscapes, but not all wildfire behavior or extent will do. Fires can produce more positive benefits and fewer negative impacts when they burn with an ecologically appropriate mix and pattern of low, moderate, and high severity. Managers will need assistance and funding to create landscape conditions that favor more desirable fire behavior at broad spatial scales. Note that much societal impact from western wildfires occurs in non-forested landscapes that are not covered in this report, where findings would differ from those reported here for forested landscapes. We summarize additional key points below.

Western United States↗

Long-term persistence and fire resilience of oak shrubfields in dry conifer forests of northern New Mexico

Extensive high-severity fires are creating large shrubfields in many dry conifer forests of the interior western USA, raising concerns about forest-to-shrub conversion. This study evaluates the role of disturbance in shrubfield formation, maintenance and succession in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico. We compared the environmental conditions of extant Gambel oak ( Quercus gambelii ) shrubfields with adjoining dry conifer forests and used dendroecological methods to determine the multi-century fire history and successional dynamics of five of the largest shrubfields (76–340 ha). Across the study area, 349 shrubfields (5–368 ha) occur in similar topographic and climate settings as dry conifer forests. This suggests disturbance, rather than other biophysical factors, may explain their origins and persistence. Gambel oak ages and tree-ring fire scars in our sampled shrubfields indicate they historically (1664–1899) burned concurrently with adjoining conifer forests and have persisted for over 115 years in the absence of fire. Aerial imagery from 1935 confirmed almost no change in sampled shrubfield patch sizes or boundaries over the twentieth century. The largest shrubfield we identified is less than 4% the size of the largest conifer-depleted and substantially shrub-dominated area recently formed in the Jemez following extensive high-severity wildfires, indicating considerable departure from historical patterns and processes. Projected hotter droughts and increasingly large high-severity fires could trigger more forest-to-shrub transitions and maintain existing shrubfields, inhibiting conifer forest recovery. Restoration of surface fire regimes and associated historical forest structures likely could reduce the rate and patch size of dry conifer forests being converted to shrubfields.

New Mexico↗

A multi-species synthesis of physiological mechanisms in drought-induced tree mortality

Widespread tree mortality associated with drought has been observed on all forested continents and global change is expected to exacerbate vegetation vulnerability. Forest mortality has implications for future biosphere–atmosphere interactions of carbon, water and energy balance, and is poorly represented in dynamic vegetation models. Reducing uncertainty requires improved mortality projections founded on robust physiological processes. However, the proposed mechanisms of drought-induced mortality, including hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, are unresolved. A growing number of empirical studies have investigated these mechanisms, but data have not been consistently analysed across species and biomes using a standardized physiological framework. Here, we show that xylem hydraulic failure was ubiquitous across multiple tree taxa at drought-induced mortality. All species assessed had 60% or higher loss of xylem hydraulic conductivity, consistent with proposed theoretical and modelled survival thresholds. We found diverse responses in non-structural carbohydrate reserves at mortality, indicating that evidence supporting carbon starvation was not universal. Reduced non-structural carbohydrates were more common for gymnosperms than angiosperms, associated with xylem hydraulic vulnerability, and may have a role in reducing hydraulic function. Our finding that hydraulic failure at drought-induced mortality was persistent across species indicates that substantial improvement in vegetation modelling can be achieved using thresholds in hydraulic function.

Nature Ecology & Evolution↗

Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback

Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large-scale forest mortality events will have far-reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die-off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long-lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self-thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole-tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large-scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This refined understanding can facilitate better projections of structural overshoot responses, enabling improved prediction of changes in forest distribution and function from regional to global scales.

Global Change Biology↗

Tree mortality across biomes is promoted by drought intensity, lower wood density and higher specific leaf area

Drought events are increasing globally, and reports of consequent forest mortality are widespread. However, due to a lack of a quantitative global synthesis, it is still not clear whether drought-induced mortality rates differ among global biomes and whether functional traits influence the risk of drought-induced mortality. To address these uncertainties, we performed a global meta-analysis of 58 studies of drought-induced forest mortality. Mortality rates were modelled as a function of drought, temperature, biomes, phylogenetic and functional groups and functional traits. We identified a consistent global-scale response, where mortality increased with drought severity [log mortality (trees trees −1 year −1 ) increased 0.46 (95% CI = 0.2–0.7) with one SPEI unit drought intensity]. We found no significant differences in the magnitude of the response depending on forest biomes or between angiosperms and gymnosperms or evergreen and deciduous tree species. Functional traits explained some of the variation in drought responses between species (i.e. increased from 30 to 37% when wood density and specific leaf area were included). Tree species with denser wood and lower specific leaf area showed lower mortality responses. Our results illustrate the value of functional traits for understanding patterns of drought-induced tree mortality and suggest that mortality could become increasingly widespread in the future.

Ecology Letters↗