Geology Reports⌕ Search

Geology topics

Courtney D. Killian

Publications and source records attributed to Courtney D. Killian.

7 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Multiple machine-learning estimation of groundwater levels and trends for the regional Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer

The Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer provides irrigation, public, and domestic water supplies across the south-central United States. Declining groundwater levels require improved characterization of changing conditions. Traditional potentiometric-surface mapping does not use all available water-level data or quantify uncertainty. To address these limitations, we developed a data-driven multiple machine-learning (MML) framework delivered through two open-source R packages. The covMRVAgen1 software assembles covariates to 155,960 monthly groundwater levels from 57,695 wells; the mmlMRVAgen1 software trains Cubist and Random Forest models, blends them, and makes 1-kilometer gridded predictions of monthly potentiometric surfaces for the period January 1980–December 2022. The MML approach provides a methodological foundation for region-scale spatiotemporal groundwater prediction and uncertainty quantification, generating 90-percent prediction limits with appropriate empirical coverage. Model performance is acceptable, with a root-mean-square error of about 4.2 feet, standard deviation of 24.82 feet, and a normalized Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.973.

Arkansas, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missou↗
USGS2025

Groundwater salinity: Applying the specific conductance and water type proxy

Groundwater is increasingly needed for water supplies but may have limited utility in some locations because of its salinity. Salinity, often expressed as total dissolved solid (TDS), is frequently estimated using specific conductance (SC) measurements. However, the commonly used proxy (0.65 multiplied by SC to indicate TDS, common in many handheld meters) can result in inaccurate TDS estimates. First, the TDS–SC relationship is not linear over the entire concentration range of groundwater. Furthermore, the TDS (and salinity)–SC relationships vary substantially depending on the major-ion composition. Here we develop a proxy method utilizing SC and major-ion water type to estimate TDS and salinity specifically for groundwaters. Compared to most surface waters, groundwater tends to have a wider range of salinity (fresh to highly saline) and higher concentrations of bedrock-derived solutes such as carbonate ions, silica, and many other ions. The dataset used to develop the proxies includes water chemistry data from 149,059 discrete groundwater samples. The groundwater proxies, which employ nonlinear log–log relations, utilize five water types (HCO 3 , Cl, Ca-Mg-SO 4 , Na-K-SO 4 , and mixed waters), are accurate (median percent difference between TDS and salinity determined using the proxy compared to discrete measurements was <±0.8%) over a wide range of SC (up to 200 mS/cm), rapid, cost-effective, and can be measured on-site.

Groundwater↗
USGS2023

Machine-learning predictions of groundwater specific conductance in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain, south-central United States, with evaluation of regional geophysical aerial electromagnetic data as explanatory variables

The Mississippi Alluvial Plain, located in the south-central United States, is undergoing long-term groundwater-level declines within the surficial Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (hereinafter referred to as “alluvial aquifer”), which has raised concerns about future groundwater availability. In some parts of the alluvial aquifer, groundwater availability for common uses such as irrigation, public supply, and domestic use is limited by quality (for example, high salinity) rather than quantity of water stored in the aquifer. The Mississippi Alluvial Plain region has an abundance of water-quality measurements in the alluvial aquifer and deeper aquifers; however, large areas lack direct measurements of salinity to evaluate regional groundwater availability. Statistical models can interpolate between wells to fill in spatial data gaps. In 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey trained two boosted regression tree (BRT) machine-learning models on specific conductance data available between 1942 and 2020 to predict spatially continuous surfaces of groundwater salinity at multiple depths for the alluvial aquifer and deeper aquifers. Well construction information, water levels, and surficial variables such as geomorphology and soils were included as explanatory variables in this baseline model. Additionally, subsurface electrical resistivity data from the first aquifer-wide aerial electromagnetic (AEM) survey for the region were incorporated to create a geophysical model. This work expands on prior BRT salinity predictions of the alluvial aquifer and extends predictions south to the Gulf of Mexico, where groundwater salinity is high. AEM survey data were not available for the southern extent of the alluvial aquifer at the time of modeling. A BRT model was trained without (baseline) and with (geophysical) AEM variables to test the ability of the models to predict salinity where explanatory data are missing and response data are sparse. Additionally, model sensitivity to AEM survey data was evaluated to better understand how AEM variables influence specific conductance predictions. Model performance was improved with the addition of geophysical data, which added three-dimensional information, thereby improving salinity predictions at depth. Groundwater specific conductance predictions can help inform other geophysical investigations in the southern extent of the study area, where high groundwater specific conductance can obfuscate changes in aquifer sediment resistivity and could limit groundwater resources for agricultural, public supply, and domestic uses.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2023

System-scale airborne electromagnetic surveys in the lower Mississippi River Valley support multidisciplinary applications

The lower Mississippi River Valley spans over 200,000 square kilometres in parts of seven states, encompassing areas of critical groundwater supplies, natural hazards, infrastructure, and low-lying coastal regions. From 2018 - 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey acquired over 82,000 line-kilometres of airborne electromagnetic, radiometric, and magnetic data over this region to provide comprehensive and systematic information about subsurface geologic and hydrologic properties that support multiple scientific and societal interests. Most of the data were acquired on a regional grid of west-east flight lines separated by 3 - 6 kilometres; however, several high-resolution inset grids with line spacing as close as 200 m were acquired in targeted areas of interest. Approximately 8,000 line-kilometres were acquired along streams and rivers to characterise the potential for surface water-groundwater connection, and another 6,000 line-kilometres were acquired along the Mississippi and Arkansas River levees to characterise this critical infrastructure. Here, we present a summary of the data along with several examples of how they are being used to inform regional groundwater model development, inferences of groundwater salinity, identification of faults in the New Madrid seismic zone, and levee infrastructure.

lower Mississippi River Valley↗
USGS2020

Simulation of water-management scenarios for the Mississippi Delta

To compare the effectiveness of proposed alternative water-supply scenarios on future water availability in the Mississippi Delta, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality are collaborating on the update and enhancement of an existing regional groundwater-flow model of the area. Through this collaboration, the model has been updated to include boundary conditions through March 2014 with the most recent water-use data, precipitation and recharge data, and streamflow and water-level observation data. The updated model has been used to evaluate selected alternative water-supply scenarios to determine relative effects on the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer. Alternative water-supply options evaluated in this report include: (1) irrigation efficiency, (2) on-farm storage and tailwater recovery, (3) instream weirs to increase surface-water availability, (4) intrabasin transfer of surface water, and (5) groundwater transfer and injection. A relative comparison approach was used to calculate the simulated water-level response caused by each scenario. Water-level response is the difference between water levels simulated by the alternative water-supply scenario and those simulated by a base or “no action” scenario. Water-level response in the alluvial aquifer varied for each scenario based on the location, magnitude, and (or) adoption rates of the simulated alternative water-supply option. The groundwater transfer and injection scenario showed the largest water-level response.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri↗
USGS2019

Characterizing groundwater/surface-water interaction using hydrograph-separation techniques and groundwater-level data throughout the Mississippi Delta, USA

The Mississippi Delta, located in northwest Mississippi, is an area dense with industrial-level agriculture sustained by groundwater-dependent irrigation supplied by the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial aquifer (alluvial aquifer). The Delta provides agricultural commodities across the United States and around the world. Observed declines in groundwater altitudes and streamflow contemporaneous with increases in irrigation have raised concerns about future groundwater availability and the effects of groundwater withdrawals on streamflow. To quantify the impacts of groundwater withdrawals on streamflow and increase understanding of groundwater and surface-water interaction, hydrograph-separation techniques were used to estimate baseflow and identify statistical streamflow trends. The analysis was conducted using the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Toolbox open-source software and daily hydrologic data provided by a spatially-distributed network of paired groundwater wells and streamgaging sites. This study found that effects of groundwater withdrawals on streamflow were observed as statistically significant reductions in baseflow in areas with substantial groundwater-altitude declines. Hydrograph-separation and trend analyses may be applicable to assess the impacts of groundwater withdrawals in altered environments and streamflow may be used as a proxy for changes in groundwater availability. Characterizing and defining hydrologic relations between groundwater and surface water will help scientists and water-resource managers refine a regional groundwater-flow model that includes the Mississippi Delta that will be used to aid water-resource managers in future decisions concerning the alluvial aquifer.

Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississip↗