Geology topics

Colleen T. Webb

Publications and source records attributed to Colleen T. Webb.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2019

Predicting functional responses in agro-ecosystems from animal movement data to improve management of invasive pests

Functional responses describe how changing resource availability affects consumer resource use, thus providing a mechanistic approach to prediction of the invasibility and potential damage of invasive alien species (IAS). However, functional responses can be context dependent, varying with resource characteristics and availability, consumer attributes, and environmental variables. Identifying context dependencies can allow invasion and damage risk to be predicted across different ecoregions. Understanding how ecological factors shape the functional response in agro‐ecosystems can improve predictions of hotspots of highest impact and inform strategies to mitigate damage across locations with varying crop types and availability. We linked heterogeneous movement data across different agro‐ecosystems to predict ecologically driven variability in the functional responses. We applied our approach to wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ), one of the most successful and detrimental IAS worldwide where agricultural resource depredation is an important driver of spread and establishment. We used continental‐scale movement data within agro‐ecosystems to quantify the functional response of agricultural resources relative to availability of crops and natural forage. We hypothesized that wild pigs would selectively use crops more often when natural forage resources were low. We also examined how individual attributes such as sex, crop type, and resource stimulus such as distance to crops altered the magnitude of the functional response. There was a strong agricultural functional response where crop use was an accelerating function of crop availability at low density (Type III) and was highly context dependent. As hypothesized, there was a reduced response of crop use with increasing crop availability when non‐agricultural resources were more available, emphasizing that crop damage levels are likely to be highly heterogeneous depending on surrounding natural resources and temporal availability of crops. We found significant effects of crop type and sex, with males spending 20% more time and visiting crops 58% more often than females, and both sexes showing different functional responses depending on crop type. Our application demonstrates how commonly collected animal movement data can be used to understand context dependencies in resource use to improve our understanding of pest foraging behavior, with implications for prioritizing spatiotemporal hotspots of potential economic loss in agro‐ecosystems.

California. Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Missouri,↗

USGS2017

Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales

Our ability to infer unobservable disease-dynamic processes such as force of infection (infection hazard for susceptible hosts) has transformed our understanding of disease transmission mechanisms and capacity to predict disease dynamics. Conventional methods for inferring FOI estimate a time-averaged value and are based on population-level processes. Because many pathogens exhibit epidemic cycling and FOI is the result of processes acting across the scales of individuals and populations, a flexible framework that extends to epidemic dynamics and links within-host processes to FOI is needed. Specifically, within-host antibody kinetics in wildlife hosts can be short-lived and produce patterns that are repeatable across individuals, suggesting individual-level antibody concentrations could be used to infer time since infection and hence FOI. Using simulations and case studies (influenza A in lesser snow geese and Yersinia pestis in coyotes), we argue that with careful experimental and surveillance design, the population-level FOI signal can be recovered from individual-level antibody kinetics, despite substantial individual-level variation. In addition to improving inference, the cross-scale quantitative antibody approach we describe can reveal insights into drivers of individual-based variation in disease response, and the role of poorly understood processes such as secondary infections, in population-level dynamics of disease.

Ecology Letters↗

USGS2016

Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter

Formal decision-analytic methods can be used to frame disease control problems, the first step of which is to define a clear and specific objective. We demonstrate the imperative of framing clearly-defined management objectives in finding optimal control actions for control of disease outbreaks. We illustrate an analysis that can be applied rapidly at the start of an outbreak when there are multiple stakeholders involved with potentially multiple objectives, and when there are also multiple disease models upon which to compare control actions. The output of our analysis frames subsequent discourse between policy-makers, modellers and other stakeholders, by highlighting areas of discord among different management objectives and also among different models used in the analysis. We illustrate this approach in the context of a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in Cumbria, UK using outputs from five rigorously-studied simulation models of FMD spread. We present both relative rankings and relative performance of controls within each model and across a range of objectives. Results illustrate how control actions change across both the base metric used to measure management success and across the statistic used to rank control actions according to said metric. This work represents a first step towards reconciling the extensive modelling work on disease control problems with frameworks for structured decision making.

Epidemics↗

USGS2016

When environmentally persistent pathogens transform good habitat into ecological traps

Habitat quality plays an important role in the dynamics and stability of wildlife metapopulations. However, the benefits of high-quality habitat may be modulated by the presence of an environmentally persistent pathogen. In some cases, the presence of environmental pathogen reservoirs on high-quality habitat may lead to the creation of ecological traps, wherein host individuals preferentially colonize high-quality habitat, but are then exposed to increased infection risk and disease-induced mortality. We explored this possibility through the development of a stochastic patch occupancy model, where we varied the pathogen’s virulence, transmission rate and environmental persistence as well as the distribution of habitat quality in the host metapopulation. This model suggests that for pathogens with intermediate levels of spread, high-quality habitat can serve as an ecological trap, and can be detrimental to host persistence relative to low-quality habitat. This inversion of the relative roles of high- and low-quality habitat highlights the importance of considering the interaction between spatial structure and pathogen transmission when managing wildlife populations exposed to an environmentally persistent pathogen.

Royal Society Open Science↗

USGS2016

Environment, host, and fungal traits predict continental-scale white-nose syndrome in bats

White-nose syndrome is a fungal disease killing bats in eastern North America, but disease is not seen in European bats and is less severe in some North American species. We show that how bats use energy during hibernation and fungal growth rates under different environmental conditions can explain how some bats are able to survive winter with infection and others are not. Our study shows how simple but nonlinear interactions between fungal growth and bat energetics result in decreased survival times at more humid hibernation sites; however, differences between species such as body size and metabolic rates determine the impact of fungal infection on bat survival, allowing European bat species to survive, whereas North American species can experience dramatic decline.

Science Advances↗

USGS2013

A comparison of bats and rodents as reservoirs of zoonotic viruses: are bats special?

Bats are the natural reservoirs of a number of high-impact viral zoonoses. We present a quantitative analysis to address the hypothesis that bats are unique in their propensity to host zoonotic viruses based on a comparison with rodents, another important host order. We found that bats indeed host more zoonotic viruses per species than rodents, and we identified life-history and ecological factors that promote zoonotic viral richness. More zoonotic viruses are hosted by species whose distributions overlap with a greater number of other species in the same taxonomic order (sympatry). Specifically in bats, there was evidence for increased zoonotic viral richness in species with smaller litters (one young), greater longevity and more litters per year. Furthermore, our results point to a new hypothesis to explain in part why bats host more zoonotic viruses per species: the stronger effect of sympatry in bats and more viruses shared between bat species suggests that interspecific transmission is more prevalent among bats than among rodents. Although bats host more zoonotic viruses per species, the total number of zoonotic viruses identified in bats (61) was lower than in rodents (68), a result of there being approximately twice the number of rodent species as bat species. Therefore, rodents should still be a serious concern as reservoirs of emerging viruses. These findings shed light on disease emergence and perpetuation mechanisms and may help lead to a predictive framework for identifying future emerging infectious virus reservoirs.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B↗