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Clifford Thurber

Publications and source records attributed to Clifford Thurber.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

Three-dimensional seismic velocity models for the San Francisco Bay region, California from joint body-wave and surface-wave tomography validated by waveform simulation

A high-resolution seismic velocity model for both P and S waves is essential for the San Francisco Bay (SFB) region to accurately simulate earthquake ground motions and assess seismic hazards in this high-risk region. We present new three-dimensional P-wave and S-wave velocity (Vp and Vs) models of the SFB region developed using joint tomographic inversion with a rich set of earthquake and active-source body-wave data and ambient-noise surface-wave data. We designed a dynamic balance strategy to effectively balance the contributions of body-wave and surface-wave data during each iteration of the inversion. Owing to the complementary resolution of body-wave and surface-wave data, our new models are significantly improved compared to previous tomographic models. Major geologic features in the SFB region, including low-velocity basins, high-velocity Franciscan Complex, granite, and gabbro rocks, and across-fault velocity contrasts, are imaged in our Vp and Vs models. Compared to the geology-based U.S. Geological Survey velocity model, our new model has better defined structures for some important areas that are of great concern for seismic hazard assessment, such as the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, and the 2014 magnitude 6.0 South Napa earthquake area. We validated our model by simulating waveforms for a set of moderate-magnitude earthquakes. The good performance of our model in waveform simulation indicates its potential for improving ground motion simulation and seismic hazard assessment in the SFB region.

California↗

The progression of basaltic–rhyolitic melt storage at Yellowstone Caldera

Yellowstone Caldera is one of the largest volcanic systems on Earth, hosting three major caldera-forming eruptions in the past two million years, interspersed with periods of less explosive, smaller-volume eruptions 1 . Caldera-forming eruptions at Yellowstone are sourced by rhyolitic melts stored within the mid- to upper crust. Seismic tomography studies have suggested that a broad region of rhyolitic melt extends beneath Yellowstone Caldera, with an estimated melt volume that is one to four times greater than the eruptive volume of the largest past caldera-forming eruption, and an estimated melt fraction of 6–28 per cent 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 . Seismic velocity is strongly influenced by temperature, pressure and melt; however, magnetotelluric data are primarily sensitive to the presence of melt, making these data ideal for constraining volcanic systems. Here we utilize magnetotelluric data to model the resistivity structure of Yellowstone Caldera’s crustal magma reservoir and constrain the region’s potential for producing major volcanic eruptions. We find that rhyolitic melts are stored in segregated regions beneath the caldera with low melt fractions, indicating that the reservoirs are not eruptible. Typically, these regions have melt volumes equivalent to small-volume post-caldera Yellowstone eruptions. The largest region of rhyolitic melt storage, concentrated beneath northeast Yellowstone Caldera, has a storage volume similar to the eruptive volume of Yellowstone’s smallest caldera-forming eruption. We identify regions of basalt migrating from the lower crust, merging with and supplying heat to the northeast region of rhyolitic melt storage. On the basis of our analysis, we suggest that the locus of future rhyolitic volcanism has shifted to northeast Yellowstone Caldera.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

Evidence for low effective stress within the crust of the subducted Gorda plate from the 2022 December Mw 6.4 Ferndale earthquake sequence

Stress levels on and adjacent to megathrust faults at seismogenic depths remain a key but difficult to constrain parameter for assessing seismic hazard in subduction zones. Although strong ground motions have been observed to be generated from distinct, high-stress regions on the downdip end of the megathrust rupture areas in many great earthquakes, we lack direct constraints on the stress level in the lower seismogenic portion of the Cascadia megathrust. On 2022 December 20, a M w 6.4 strike-slip earthquake occurred near Ferndale, California in southern Cascadia and likely ruptured the Gorda slab crust in the lower seismogenic portion, providing an opportunity to assess the stress level in this region. Here, we relocate the Ferndale mainshock and the first two weeks of aftershocks using a high-resolution 3-D velocity model and estimate rupture dimensions, directivity, and stress drop for several M w 4-5 aftershocks and recent earthquakes. The aftershocks define a strike-slip fault in the slab crust striking ENE, consistent with the mainshock focal mechanism. The orientation of this fault is about 45 ° off the ideally oriented fault plane given the stress state in the slab. The aftershock zone is extensive and broad in the forward direction of the mainshock rupture but still constrained within the volume of high Vp/Vs within the slab crust. Our stress drop estimates are generally lower for M w 4-5 earthquakes located within the slab crust compared to those a few km deeper in the slab mantle. Combined, our results support a relatively low effective stress level in the vicinity of the megathrust in the lower portion of the seismogenic zone in southern Cascadia, likely due to elevated fluid pressures. Consequently, the ground motion in the onshore region above this low-stress seismogenic portion in southern Cascadia may not be as intense as that observed during great earthquakes in other subduction zones.

California↗

Seismic tomography 2023

Seismic tomography is the most abundant source of information about the internal structure of the Earth at scales ranging from a few meters to thousands of kilometers. It constrains the properties of active volcanoes, earthquake fault zones, deep reservoirs and storage sites, glaciers and ice sheets, or the entire globe. It contributes to outstanding societal problems related to natural hazards, resource exploration, underground storage, and many more. The recent advances in seismic tomography are being translated to nondestructive testing, medical ultrasound, and helioseismology. Nearly 50 yr after its first successful applications, this article offers a snapshot of modern seismic tomography. Focused on major challenges and particularly promising research directions, it is intended to guide both Earth science professionals and early‐career scientists. The individual contributions by the coauthors provide diverse perspectives on topics that may at first seem disconnected but are closely tied together by a few coherent threads: multiparameter inversion for properties related to dynamic processes, data quality, and geographic coverage, uncertainty quantification that is useful for geologic interpretation, new formulations of tomographic inverse problems that address concrete geologic questions more directly, and the presentation and quantitative comparison of tomographic models. It remains to be seen which of these problems will be considered solved, solved to some extent, or practically unsolvable over the next decade.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Monitoring changes in seismic velocity related to an ongoing rapid inflation event at Okmok volcano, Alaska

Okmok is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian Arc. In an effort to improve our ability to detect precursory activity leading to eruption at Okmok, we monitor a recent, and possibly ongoing, GPS-inferred rapid inflation event at the volcano using ambient noise interferometry (ANI). Applying this method, we identify changes in seismic velocity outside of Okmok’s caldera, which are related to the hydrologic cycle. Within the caldera, we observe decreases in seismic velocity that are associated with the GPS-inferred rapid inflation event. We also determine temporal changes in waveform decorrelation and show a continual increase in decorrelation rate over the time associated with the rapid inflation event. Themagnitude of relative velocity decreases and decorrelation rate increases are comparable to previous studies at Piton de la Fournaise that associate such changes with increased production of volatiles and/ormagmatic intrusion within the magma reservoir and associated opening of fractures and/or fissures. Notably, the largest decrease in relative velocity occurs along the intrastation path passing nearest to the center of the caldera. This observation, along with equal amplitude relative velocity decreases revealed via analysis of intracaldera autocorrelations, suggests that the inflation sourcemay be located approximately within the center of the caldera and represent recharge of shallow magma storage in this location. Importantly, there is a relative absence of seismicity associated with this and previous rapid inflation events at Okmok. Thus, these ANI results are the first seismic evidence of such rapid inflation at the volcano.

Alaska↗

Tracking changes in volcanic systems with seismic Interferometry

The detection and evaluation of time-dependent changes at volcanoes form the foundation upon which successful volcano monitoring is built. Temporal changes at volcanoes occur over all time scales and may be obvious (e.g., earthquake swarms) or subtle (e.g., a slow, steady increase in the level of tremor). Some of the most challenging types of time-dependent change to detect are subtle variations in material properties beneath active volcanoes. Although difficult to measure, such changes carry important information about stresses and fluids present within hydrothermal and magmatic systems. These changes are imprinted on seismic waves that propagate through volcanoes. In recent years, there has been a quantum leap in the ability to detect subtle structural changes systematically at volcanoes with seismic waves. The new methodology is based on the idea that useful seismic signals can be generated “at will” from seismic noise. This means signals can be measured any time, in contrast to the often irregular and unpredictable times of earthquakes. With seismic noise in the frequency band 0.1–1 Hz arising from the interaction of the ocean with the solid Earth known as microseisms, researchers have demonstrated that cross-correlations of passive seismic recordings between pairs of seismometers yield coherent signals (Campillo and Paul 2003; Shapiro and Campillo 2004). Based on this principle, coherent signals have been reconstructed from noise recordings in such diverse fields as helioseismology (Rickett and Claerbout 2000), ultrasound (Weaver and Lobkis 2001), ocean acoustic waves (Roux and Kuperman 2004), regional (Shapiro et al. 2005; Sabra et al. 2005; Bensen et al. 2007) and exploration (Draganov et al. 2007) seismology, atmospheric infrasound (Haney 2009), and studies of the cryosphere (Marsan et al. 2012). Initial applications of ambient seismic noise were to regional surface wave tomography (Shapiro et al. 2005). Brenguier et al. (2007) were the first to use ambient noise tomography (ANT) to map the 3D structure of a volcanic interior (at Piton de la Fournaise). Subsequent studies have imaged volcanoes with ANT at Okmok (Masterlark et al. 2010), Toba (Stankiewicz et al. 2010), Katmai (Thurber et al. 2012), Asama (Nagaoka et al. 2012), Uturuncu (Jay et al. 2012), and Kilauea (Ballmer et al. 2013b). In addition, Ma et al. (2013) have imaged a scatterer in the volcanic region of southern Peru by applying array techniques to ambient noise correlations. Prior to and in tandem with the development of ANT, researchers discovered that repeating earthquakes, which often occur at volcanoes, could be used to monitor subtle time-dependent changes with a technique known as the doublet method or coda wave interferometry (CWI) (Poupinet et al. 1984; Roberts et al. 1992; Ratdomopurbo and Poupinet 1995; Snieder et al. 2002; Pandolfi et al. 2006; Wegler et al. 2006; Martini et al. 2009; Haney et al. 2009; De Angelis 2009; Nagaoka et al. 2010; Battaglia et al. 2012; Erdem and Waite 2005; Hotovec-Ellis et al. 2014). Chaput et al. (2012) have also used scattered waves from Strombolian eruption coda at Erebus volcano to image the reflectivity of the volcanic interior with body wave interferometry. However, CWI in its original form was limited in that repeating earthquakes, or doublets, were not always guaranteed to occur. With the widespread use of noise correlations in seismology following the groundbreaking work by Campillo and Paul (2003) and Shapiro et al. (2005), it became evident that the nature of the ambient seismic field, due to its oceanic origin, enabled the continuous monitoring of subtle, time-dependent changes at both fault zones (Wegler and Sens-Schönfelder 2007; Brenguier et al. 2008b; Wegler et al. 2009; Sawazaki et al. 2009; Tatagi et al. 2012) and volcanoes (Sens-Schönfelder and Wegler 2006; Brenguier et al. 2008a) without the need for repeating earthquakes. Seismic precursors to eruptions based on ambient noise we

Book chapter↗

Imaging P and S attenuation in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta region, northern California

We obtain 3-D Qp and Qs models for the Delta region of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers, a large fluvial-agricultural portion of the Great Valley located between the Sierra Nevada batholith and the San Francisco Bay - Coast Ranges region of active faulting. Path attenuation t* values have been obtained for P and S data from 124 distributed earthquakes, with a longer variable window for S based on the energy integral. We use frequency dependence of 0.5 consistent with other studies, and weakly favored by the t* S data. A regional initial model was obtained by solving for Q as a function of velocity. In the final model, the Great Valley basin has low Q with very low Q (<50) for the shallowest portion of the Delta. There is an underlying strong Q contrast to the ophiolite basement which is thickest with highest Q under the Sacramento basin, and a change in structure is apparent across the Suisun Bay as a transition to thinner ophiolite. Moderately low Q is found in the upper crust west of the Delta region along the faults in the eastern North Bay Area, while, moderately high Q is found south of the Delta, implying potentially stronger ground motion for earthquake sources to the south. Very low Q values in the shallow crust along parts of the major fault zones may relate to sediment and abundant microfractures. In the lower crust below the San Andreas and Calaveras-Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault zones, the observed low Q is consistent with grain-size reduction in ductile shear zones and is lowest under the San Andreas which has large cumulative strain. Similarly moderately low Q in the ductile lower crust of the Bay Area block between the major fault zones implies a broad distributed shear zone.

California↗

Three-dimensional seismic velocity structure and earthquake relocations at Katmai, Alaska

We invert arrival time data from local earthquakes occurring between September 2004 and May 2009 to determine the three-dimensional (3D) upper crustal seismic structure in the Katmai volcanic region. Waveforms for the study come from the Alaska Volcano Observatory's permanent network of 20 seismic stations in the area (predominantly single-component, short period instruments) plus a densely spaced temporary array of 11 broadband, 3-component stations. The absolute and relative arrival times are used in a double-difference seismic tomography inversion to solve for 3D P- and S-wave velocity models for an area encompassing the main volcanic centers. The relocated hypocenters provide insight into the geometry of seismogenic structures in the area, revealing clustering of events into four distinct zones associated with Martin, Mageik, Trident-Novarupta, and Mount Katmai. The seismic activity extends from about sea level to 2 km depth (all depths referenced to mean sea level) beneath Martin, is concentrated near 2 km depth beneath Mageik, and lies mainly between 2 and 4 km depth below Katmai and Trident-Novarupta. Many new features are apparent within these earthquake clusters. In particular, linear features are visible within all clusters, some associated with swarm activity, including an observation of earthquake migration near Trident in 2008. The final velocity model reveals a possible zone of magma storage beneath Mageik, but there is no clear evidence for magma beneath the Katmai-Novarupta area where the 1912 eruptive activity occurred, suggesting that the storage zone for that eruption may have largely been evacuated, or remnant magma has solidified.

Alaska↗

Volcanoes: observations and impact

Volcanoes are critical geologic hazards that challenge our ability to make long-term forecasts of their eruptive behaviors. They also have direct and indirect impacts on human lives and society. As is the case with many geologic phenomena, the time scales over which volcanoes evolve greatly exceed that of a human lifetime. On the other hand, the time scale over which a volcano can move from inactivity to eruption can be rather short: months, weeks, days, and even hours. Thus, scientific study and monitoring of volcanoes is essential to mitigate risk. There are thousands of volcanoes on Earth, and it is impractical to study and implement ground-based monitoring at them all. Fortunately, there are other effective means for volcano monitoring , including increasing capabilities for satellite-based technologies.

Book chapter↗

Earthquake studies reveal the magmatic plumbing system of the Katmai volcanoes

The 1912 eruption of Novarupta was the largest of the 1900s (Fierstein and Hildreth 2001, Hildreth et al. 2003). A century later, fundamental questions remain regarding the source of the magma for that eruption. A previous seismic study of the Katmai area (Jolly et al. 2007) identified a single large area of anomalous structure in the subsurface centered beneath Katmai Pass (Figure 2), but the magma source for the 1912 eruption is thought to have been beneath Mt. Katmai (Hildreth et al. 2003). This mystery was a prime motivation for the research project described here. In summer 2008, scientists and staff from the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) and the University of Wisconsin- Madison installed 11 temporary seismic recording instruments around the Katmai Pass area, complementing the existing AVO seismic network stations (Figure 3). The primary goal of the deployment was to record data from local earthquakes in order to yield an improved model of the three-dimensional structure of the upper crust beneath and surrounding Katmai Pass, using an analysis method known as double-difference seismic tomography (Zhang and Thurber 2003). The method yields a threedimensional image of the velocity of seismic waves in the subsurface, and also produces improved estimates of the locations of the earthquakes beneath the seismic stations. Our main finding is that there is not a single large anomalous zone centered beneath Katmai Pass; rather there are several separate anomalous zones, one each beneath Katmai, Trident-Novarupta, and Martin-Mageik. Furthermore, the earthquakes are tightly clustered beneath the various volcanic centers, and are found to be systematically deeper than previously thought. Linear trends of earthquakes are also revealed, similar to features observed at other volcanoes, possibly outlining previously unidentified fault structures or indicating the path of migrating magma or magmatic fluids and gases.

Alaska↗

Aftershock distribution as a constraint on the geodetic model of coseismic slip for the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

Several studies of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake have linked the spatial distribution of the event’s aftershocks to the mainshock slip distribution on the fault. Using geodetic data, we find a model of coseismic slip for the 2004 Parkfield earthquake with the constraint that the edges of coseismic slip patches align with aftershocks. The constraint is applied by encouraging the curvature of coseismic slip in each model cell to be equal to the negative of the curvature of seismicity density. The large patch of peak slip about 15 km northwest of the 2004 hypocenter found in the curvature-constrained model is in good agreement in location and amplitude with previous geodetic studies and the majority of strong motion studies. The curvature-constrained solution shows slip primarily between aftershock “streaks” with the continuation of moderate levels of slip to the southeast. These observations are in good agreement with strong motion studies, but inconsistent with the majority of published geodetic slip models. Southeast of the 2004 hypocenter, a patch of peak slip observed in strong motion studies is absent from our curvature-constrained model, but the available GPS data do not resolve slip in this region. We conclude that the geodetic slip model constrained by the aftershock distribution fits the geodetic data quite well and that inconsistencies between models derived from seismic and geodetic data can be attributed largely to resolution issues.

California↗