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Claudia C. Faunt

Publications and source records attributed to Claudia C. Faunt.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Knowledge, transparency, and refutability in groundwater models, an example from the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system

This work demonstrates how available knowledge can be used to build more transparent and refutable computer models of groundwater systems. The Death Valley regional groundwater flow system, which surrounds a proposed site for a high level nuclear waste repository of the United States of America, and the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), where nuclear weapons were tested, is used to explore model adequacy, identify parameters important to (and informed by) observations, and identify existing old and potential new observations important to predictions. Model development is pursued using a set of fundamental questions addressed with carefully designed metrics. Critical methods include using a hydrogeologic model, managing model nonlinearity by designing models that are robust while maintaining realism, using error-based weighting to combine disparate types of data, and identifying important and unimportant parameters and observations and optimizing parameter values with computationally frugal schemes. The frugal schemes employed in this study require relatively few (10–1000 s), parallelizable model runs. This is beneficial because models able to approximate the complex site geology defensibly tend to have high computational cost. The issue of model defensibility is particularly important given the contentious political issues involved.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2013

Construction of 3-D geologic framework and textural models for Cuyama Valley groundwater basin, California

Groundwater is the sole source of water supply in Cuyama Valley, a rural agricultural area in Santa Barbara County, California, in the southeasternmost part of the Coast Ranges of California. Continued groundwater withdrawals and associated water-resource management concerns have prompted an evaluation of the hydrogeology and water availability for the Cuyama Valley groundwater basin by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Water Agency Division of the Santa Barbara County Department of Public Works. As a part of the overall groundwater evaluation, this report documents the construction of a digital three-dimensional geologic framework model of the groundwater basin suitable for use within a numerical hydrologic-flow model. The report also includes an analysis of the spatial variability of lithology and grain size, which forms the geologic basis for estimating aquifer hydraulic properties. The geologic framework was constructed as a digital representation of the interpreted geometry and thickness of the principal stratigraphic units within the Cuyama Valley groundwater basin, which include younger alluvium, older alluvium, and the Morales Formation, and underlying consolidated bedrock. The framework model was constructed by creating gridded surfaces representing the altitude of the top of each stratigraphic unit from various input data, including lithologic and electric logs from oil and gas wells and water wells, cross sections, and geologic maps. Sediment grain-size data were analyzed in both two and three dimensions to help define textural variations in the Cuyama Valley groundwater basin and identify areas with similar geologic materials that potentially have fairly uniform hydraulic properties. Sediment grain size was used to construct three-dimensional textural models that employed simple interpolation between drill holes and two-dimensional textural models for each stratigraphic unit that incorporated spatial structure of the textural data.

California↗
USGS2012

Groundwater depletion and sustainability of irrigation in the US High Plains and Central Valley

Aquifer overexploitation could significantly impact crop production in the United States because 60% of irrigation relies on groundwater. Groundwater depletion in the irrigated High Plains and California Central Valley accounts for ∼50% of groundwater depletion in the United States since 1900. A newly developed High Plains recharge map shows that high recharge in the northern High Plains results in sustainable pumpage, whereas lower recharge in the central and southern High Plains has resulted in focused depletion of 330 km 3 of fossil groundwater, mostly recharged during the past 13,000 y. Depletion is highly localized with about a third of depletion occurring in 4% of the High Plains land area. Extrapolation of the current depletion rate suggests that 35% of the southern High Plains will be unable to support irrigation within the next 30 y. Reducing irrigation withdrawals could extend the lifespan of the aquifer but would not result in sustainable management of this fossil groundwater. The Central Valley is a more dynamic, engineered system, with north/south diversions of surface water since the 1950s contributing to ∼7× higher recharge. However, these diversions are regulated because of impacts on endangered species. A newly developed Central Valley Hydrologic Model shows that groundwater depletion since the 1960s, totaling 80 km 3 , occurs mostly in the south (Tulare Basin) and primarily during droughts. Increasing water storage through artificial recharge of excess surface water in aquifers by up to 3 km 3 shows promise for coping with droughts and improving sustainability of groundwater resources in the Central Valley.

California, Colorago, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico↗
USGS2012

Planned updates and refinements to the Central Valley hydrologic model with an emphasis on improving the simulation of land subsidence in the San Joaquin Valley

California's Central Valley has been one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world for more than 50 years. To better understand the groundwater availability in the valley, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed the Central Valley hydrologic model (CVHM). Because of recent water-level declines and renewed subsidence, the CVHM is being updated to better simulate the geohydrologic system. The CVHM updates and refinements can be grouped into two general categories: (1) model code changes and (2) data updates. The CVHM updates and refinements will require that the model be recalibrated. The updated CVHM will provide a detailed transient analysis of changes in groundwater availability and flow paths in relation to climatic variability, urbanization, stream flow, and changes in irrigated agricultural practices and crops. The updated CVHM is particularly focused on more accurately simulating the locations and magnitudes of land subsidence. The intent of the updated CVHM is to help scientists better understand the availability and sustainability of water resources and the interaction of groundwater levels with land subsidence.

California↗
USGS2011

Comment on “An unconfined groundwater model of the Death Valley Regional Flow System and a comparison to its confined predecessor” by R.W.H. Carroll, G.M. Pohll and R.L. Hershey [Journal of Hydrology 373/3–4, pp. 316–328]

Carroll et al. (2009) state that the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS) model, which is based on MODFLOW, is “conceptually inaccurate in that it models an unconfined aquifer as a confined system and does not simulate unconfined drawdown in transient pumping simulations.” Carroll et al. (2009) claim that “more realistic estimates of water availability” can be produced by a SURFACT-based model of the DVRFS that simulates unconfined groundwater flow and limits withdrawals from wells to avoid excessive drawdown. Differences in results from the original MODFLOW-based model and the SURFACT-based model stem primarily from application by Carroll et al. (2009) of head limits that can also be applied using the existing MODLOW model and not from any substantial difference in the accuracy with which the unconfined aquifer is represented in the two models. In a hypothetical 50-year predictive simulation presented by Carroll et al. (2009), large differences between the models are shown when simulating pumping from the lower clastic confining unit, where the transmissivity is nearly two orders of magnitude less than in an alluvial aquifer. Yet even for this extreme example, drawdowns and pumping rates from the MODFLOW and SURFACT models are similar when the head-limit capabilities of the MODFLOW MNW Package are applied. These similarities persist despite possible discrepancies between assigned hydraulic properties. The resulting comparison between the MODFLOW and SURFACT models of the DVRFS suggests that approximating the unconfined system in the DVRFS as a constant-saturated-thickness system (called a “confined system” by Carroll et al., 2009) performs very well.

Death Valley↗
USGS2010

Death Valley regional groundwater flow system, Nevada and California: Hydrogeologic framework and transient groundwater flow model

A numerical three-dimensional (3D) transient groundwater flow model of the Death Valley region was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for the U.S. Department of Energy programs at the Nevada Test Site and at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Decades of study of aspects of the groundwater flow system and previous less extensive groundwater flow models were incorporated and reevaluated together with new data to provide greater detail for the complex, digital model. A 3D digital hydrogeologic framework model (HFM) was developed from digital elevation models, geologic maps, borehole information, geologic and hydrogeologic cross sections, and other 3D models to represent the geometry of the hydrogeologic units (HGUs). Structural features, such as faults and fractures, that affect groundwater flow also were added. The HFM represents Precambrian and Paleozoic crystalline and sedimentary rocks, Mesozoic sedimentary rocks, Mesozoic to Cenozoic intrusive rocks, Cenozoic volcanic tuffs and lavas, and late Cenozoic sedimentary deposits of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system (DVRFS) region in 27 HGUs. Information from a series of investigations was compiled to conceptualize and quantify hydrologic components of the groundwater flow system within the DVRFS model domain and to provide hydraulic-property and head-observation data used in the calibration of the transient-flow model. These studies reevaluated natural groundwater discharge occurring through evapotranspiration (ET) and spring flow; the history of groundwater pumping from 1913 through 1998; groundwater recharge simulated as net infiltration; model boundary inflows and outflows based on regional hydraulic gradients and water budgets of surrounding areas; hydraulic conductivity and its relation to depth; and water levels appropriate for regional simulation of prepumped and pumped conditions within the DVRFS model domain. Simulation results appropriate for the regional extent and scale of the model were provided by acquiring additional data, by reevaluating existing data using current technology and concepts, and by refining earlier interpretations to reflect the current understanding of the regional groundwater flow system. Groundwater flow in the Death Valley region is composed of several interconnected, complex groundwater flow systems. Groundwater flow occurs in three subregions in relatively shallow and localized flow paths that are superimposed on deeper, regional flow paths. Regional groundwater flow is predominantly through a thick Paleozoic carbonate rock sequence affected by complex geologic structures from regional faulting and fracturing that can enhance or impede flow. Spring flow and ET are the dominant natural groundwater discharge processes. Groundwater also is withdrawn for agricultural, commercial, and domestic uses. Groundwater flow in the DVRFS was simulated using MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey 3D finitedifference modular groundwater flow modeling code that incorporates a nonlinear least-squares regression technique to estimate aquifer parameters. The DVRFS model has 16 layers of defined thickness, a finite-difference grid consisting of 194 rows and 160 columns, and uniform cells 1,500 meters (m) on each side. Prepumping conditions (before 1913) were used as the initial conditions for the transient-state calibration. The model uses annual stress periods with discrete recharge and discharge components. Recharge occurs mostly from infiltration of precipitation and runoff on high mountain ranges and from a small amount of underflow from adjacent basins. Discharge occurs primarily through ET and spring discharge (both simulated as drains) and water withdrawal by pumping and, to a lesser amount, by underflow to adjacent basins simulated by constant-head boundaries. All parameter values estimated by the regression are reasonable and within the range of expected values. The simulated hydraulic heads of the final calibrated transient model generally fit observed heads reasonably well (residuals with absolute values less than 10 meters) with two exceptions: in most areas of nearly flat hydraulic gradient the fit is considered moderate (residuals with absolute values of 10 to 20 meters), and in areas of steep hydraulic gradient along the Eleana Range and western part of Yucca Flat, southern part of the Owlshead Mountains, southern part of the Bullfrog Hills, and the north-northwestern part of the model domain (residuals with absolute values greater than 20 meters). Groundwater discharge residuals are fairly random, with as many areas where simulated flows are less than observed flows as areas where simulated flows are greater. The highest unweighted groundwater discharge residuals occur at Death Valley, Sarcobatus Flat (northeastern area), Tecopa, and early observations at Manse Spring in Pahrump Valley. High weighted-discharge residuals were computed in Indian Springs Valley and parts of Death Valley. Most of these inaccuracies in head and discharge can be attributed to insufficient representation of the hydrogeology in the HFM and(or) discharge estimates, misrepresentation of water levels, and(or) model error associated with grid-cell size. The model represents the large and complex groundwater flow system of the Death Valley region at a greater degree of refinement and accuracy than has been possible previously. The representation of detail provided by the 3D digital hydrogeologic framework model and the numerical groundwater flow model enabled greater spatial accuracy in every model parameter. The lithostratigraphy and structural effects of the hydrogeologic framework; recharge estimates from simulated net infiltration; discharge estimates from ET, spring flow, and pumping; and boundary inflow and outflow estimates all were reevaluated, some additional data were collected, and accuracy was improved. Uncertainty in the results of the flow model simulations can be reduced by improving on the quality, interpretation, and representation of the water-level and discharge observations used to calibrate the model and improving on the representation of the HGU geometries, the spatial variability of HGU material properties, the flow model physical framework, and the hydrologic conditions.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2010

Integrated simulation of consumptive use and land subsidence in the Central Valley, California, for the past and for a future subject to urbanization and climate change

Competition for water resources is growing throughout California, particularly in the Central Valley where about 20% of all groundwater used in the United States is consumed for agriculture and urban water supply. Continued agricultural use coupled with urban growth and potential climate change would result in continued depletion of groundwater storage and associated land subsidence throughout the Central Valley. For 1962-2003, an estimated 1,230 hectare meters (hm3) of water was withdrawn from fine-grained beds, resulting in more than three meters (m) of additional land subsidence locally. Linked physically-based, supply-constrained and emanddriven hydrologic models were used to simulate future hydrologic conditions under the A2 climate projection scenario that assumes continued "business as usual" greenhouse gas emissions. Results indicate an increased subsidence in the second half of the twenty-first century. Potential simulated land subsidence extends into urban areas and the eastern side of the valley where future surface-water deliveries may be depleted.

California↗
USGS2009

Development of a three-dimensional model of sedimentary texture in valley-fill deposits of Central Valley, California, USA

A three-dimensional (3D) texture model was developed to help characterize the aquifer system of Central Valley, California (USA), for a groundwater flow model. The 52,000-km 2 Central Valley aquifer system consists of heterogeneous valley-fill deposits. The texture model was developed by compiling and analyzing approximately 8,500 drillers’ logs, describing lithologies up to 950 m below land surface. The lithologic descriptions on the logs were simplified into a binary classification of coarse- and fine-grained. The percentage of coarse-grained sediment, or texture, was then computed for each 15-m depth interval. The model was developed by 3D kriging of the percentage of coarse-grained deposits onto a 1.6-km spatial grid at 15-m depth intervals from land surface down to 700 m below land surface. The texture model reflects the known regional, spatial, and vertical heterogeneity in the aquifer system. The texture model correlates to sediment source areas, independently mapped geomorphic provinces, and factors affecting the development of alluvial fans, thus demonstrating the utility of using tcdrillers’ logs as a source of lithologic information. The texture model is upscaled to a layered groundwater flow model for use in defining the hydraulic properties of the aquifer system.

California↗
USGS2009

California's Central Valley Groundwater Study: A Powerful New Tool to Assess Water Resources in California's Central Valley

Competition for water resources is growing throughout California, particularly in the Central Valley. Since 1980, the Central Valley's population has nearly doubled to 3.8 million people. It is expected to increase to 6 million by 2020. Statewide population growth, anticipated reductions in Colorado River water deliveries, drought, and the ecological crisis in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta have created an intense demand for water. Tools and information can be used to help manage the Central Valley aquifer system, an important State and national resource.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2008

Application of MODFLOW’s farm process to California’s Central Valley

Historically, California’s Central Valley has been one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. The Central Valley also is rapidly becoming an important area for California’s expanding urban population. During 1980–2007, the population nearly doubled in the Central Valley, increasing the competition for water. Because of the importance of ground water in the Central Valley, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Ground-Water Resources Program is evaluating ground-water conditions in the valley on the basis of historical and anticipated water use. This study updates the USGS Central Valley Regional Aquifer System and Analysis (CVRASA) model that was originally? calibrated to observed conditions for the period 1961-77. The model developed for this study utilizes MODFLOW-2000, and was calibrated to observed conditions for the period 1961-2003. Key updates include characterization of the aquifer system using a detailed textural analysis of more than 8,500 drillers’ logs; use of the MODFLOW subsidence package (SUB) to simulate aquifer-system compaction; and, most importantly, use of the newly developed MODFLOW Farm Process (FMP) for simulating irrigation and other landscape processes. The FMP provides coupled simulation of the ground-water and surface-water components of the hydrologic cycle for irrigated and non-irrigated areas. A dynamic allocation of ground-water recharge and ground-water pumping is simulated on the basis of residual crop-water demand after surface-water deliveries and root uptake from shallow ground water. The FMP links with the Streamflow Routing Package SFR1) to facilitate the simulated conveyance of surface-water deliveries. Ground-water Pumpage through both single-aquifer and multi-node wells, irrigation return flow, and variable irrigation efficiencies also are simulated by the FMP. The simulated deliveries and ground-water pumpage in the updated model reflect climatic differences, differences among defined water-balance regions, and changes in the waterdelivery system, during the 1961–2003 simulation period. The model is designed to accept forecasts from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to simulate the potential effects on surface-water delivery, ground-water pumpage, and ground-water storage in response to climate change. The model provides a detailed transient analysis of changes in ground-water availability in relation to climatic variability, urbanization, and changes in irrigated agriculture.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2006

A guide for using the transient ground-water flow model of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, Nevada and California

This report is a guide for executing numerical simulations with the transient ground-water flow model of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, Nevada and California using the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference ground-water flow model, MODFLOW-2000. Model inputs, including observations of hydraulic head, discharge, and boundary flows, are summarized. Modification of the DVRFS transient ground-water model is discussed for two common uses of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system model: predictive pumping scenarios that extend beyond the end of the model simulation period (1998), and model simulations with only steady-state conditions.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2006

Hydrogeologic framework refinement, ground-water flow and storage, water-chemistry analyses, and water-budget components of the Yuma area, southwestern Arizona and southeastern California

The ground-water and surface-water system in the Yuma area in southwestern Arizona and southeastern California is managed intensely to meet water-delivery requirements of customers in the United States, to manage high ground-water levels in the valleys, and to maintain treaty-mandated water-quality and quantity requirements of Mexico. The following components in this report, which were identified to be useful in the development of a ground-water management model, are: (1) refinement of the hydrogeologic framework; (2) updated water-level maps, general ground-water flow patterns, and an estimate of the amount of ground water stored in the mound under Yuma Mesa; (3) review and documentation of the ground-water budget calculated by the Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Department of the Interior (Reclamation); and (4) water-chemistry characterization to identify the spatial distribution of water quality, information on sources and ages of ground water, and information about the productive-interval depths of the aquifer. A refined three-dimensional digital hydrogeologic framework model includes the following hydrogeologic units from bottom to top: (1) the effective hydrologic basement of the basin aquifer, which includes the Pliocene Bouse Formation, Tertiary volcanic and sedimentary rocks, and pre-Tertiary metamorphic and plutonic rocks; (2) undifferentiated lower units to represent the Pliocene transition zone and wedge zone; (3) coarse-gravel unit; (4) lower, middle, and upper basin fill to represent the upper, fine-grained zone between the top of the coarse-gravel unit and the land surface; and (5) clay A and clay B. Data for the refined model includes digital elevation models, borehole lithology data, geophysical data, and structural data to represent the geometry of the hydrogeologic units. The top surface of the coarse-gravel unit, defined by using borehole and geophysical data, varies similarly to terraces resulting from the down cutting of the Colorado River. Clay A is nearly the same as the previous conceptual hydrogeologic model definition (Olmsted and others, 1973), except for a minor westward extension from the city of Yuma. Clay B is extended to the southerly international boundary and increased in areal extent by about two-thirds of the original extent (Olmsted and others, 1973). The other hydrogeologic units generally are the same as in the previous conceptual hydrogeologic model. Before development, the Colorado and Gila Rivers were the sources of nearly all the ground water in the Yuma area through direct infiltration of water from river channels and annual overbank flooding. After construction of upstream reservoirs and clearing and irrigation of the floodplains, the rivers now act as drains for the ground water. Ground-water levels in most of the Yuma area are higher now than they were in predevelopment time. A general gradient of ground-water flow toward the natural discharge area south of the Yuma area still exists, but many other changes in flow are evident. Ground water in Yuma Valley once flowed away from the Colorado River, but now has a component of flow towards the river and Mexicali Valley. A ground-water mound has formed under Yuma Mesa from long-term surface-water irrigation; about 600,000 to 800,000 acre-ft of water are stored in the mound. Ground-water withdrawals adjacent to the southerly international boundary have resulted in water-level declines in that area. The reviewed and documented water budget includes the following components: (1) recharge in irrigated areas, (2) evapotranspiration by irrigated crops and phreatophytes, (3) ground-water return flow to the Colorado River, and (4) ground-water withdrawals (including those in Mexicali Valley). Recharge components were calculated by subtracting the amount of water used by crops from the amount of water delivered. Evapotranspiration rates were calculated on the basis of established methods, thus were appropriate for input to the ground-water flow model developed by the Bureau of Reclamation (William Greer, hydrologist, Bureau of Reclamation, written commun., 2005). Evapotranspiration by crops and phreatophytes were calculated by using crop coefficient methods and meteorological data. Other methods of calculating evapotranspiration rates by using combinations of satellite imagery and ground-based data could be used for higher spatial and temporal resolution. Ground-water return flow during years of low flow on the Colorado River (1972–82, 1987–92, and 1994–96) averaged 79,000 acre-ft per year. Ground-water withdrawal data for 1970–99 were similar to other estimates made by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Yuma area. New water-chemistry data were collected in 12 wells and 8 canals/drains to characterize spatial patterns in chemical constituents, determine isotopic ages of water, infer possible sources of ground water, and locate the vertical intervals of the aquifer that contribute most water to wells. Depth-dependent samples were collected at one of the wells (YM-10). A large quantity of water-quality data were compiled from Bureau of Reclamation and U.S. Geological Survey records and merged into the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System database. New samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, tritium ( 3 H), and carbon-14 ( 14 C) (along with C 13 /C 12 ratios). Light values of oxygen-18 ( 18 O) and deuterium ( 2 H, D) in well 242-2 indicate recharge from the Colorado River. Heavy water samples from wells 242-22, CADC, and Mesa del Sol indicate local recharge sources. Tritium data indicate there is young water in wells in the valleys and near the edge of Yuma Mesa, while older water is found far from the Colorado River. 14 C data indicate that water from wells near the southerly international boundary is at least several thousand years old.

Arizona, California↗
USGS2002

Three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model for use with a steady-state numerical ground-water flow model of the Death Valley regional flow system, Nevada and California

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Department of Energy and other Federal, State, and local agencies, is evaluating the hydrogeologic characteristics of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system. The ground-water flow system covers an area of about 100,000 square kilometers from latitude 35° to 38°15' North to longitude 115° to 118° West, with the flow system proper comprising about 45,000 square kilometers. The Death Valley regional ground-water flow system is one of the larger flow systems within the Southwestern United States and includes in its boundaries the Nevada Test Site, Yucca Mountain, and much of Death Valley. Part of this study includes the construction of a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model to serve as the foundation for the development of a steady-state regional ground-water flow model. The digital framework model provides a computer-based description of the geometry and composition of the hydrogeologic units that control regional flow. The framework model of the region was constructed by merging two previous framework models constructed for the Yucca Mountain Project and the Environmental Restoration Program Underground Test Area studies at the Nevada Test Site. The hydrologic characteristics of the region result from a currently arid climate and complex geology. Interbasinal regional ground-water flow occurs through a thick carbonate-rock sequence of Paleozoic age, a locally thick volcanic-rock sequence of Tertiary age, and basin-fill alluvium of Tertiary and Quaternary age. Throughout the system, deep and shallow ground-water flow may be controlled by extensive and pervasive regional and local faults and fractures. The framework model was constructed using data from several sources to define the geometry of the regional hydrogeologic units. These data sources include (1) a 1:250,000-scale hydrogeologic-map compilation of the region; (2) regional-scale geologic cross sections; (3) borehole information, and (4) gridded surfaces from a previous three-dimensional geologic model. In addition, digital elevation model data were used in conjunction with these data to define ground-surface altitudes. These data, properly oriented in three dimensions by using geographic information systems, were combined and gridded to produce the upper surfaces of the hydrogeologic units used in the flow model. The final geometry of the framework model is constructed as a volumetric model by incorporating the intersections of these gridded surfaces and by applying fault truncation rules to structural features from the geologic map and cross sections. The cells defining the geometry of the hydrogeologic framework model can be assigned several attributes such as lithology, hydrogeologic unit, thickness, and top and bottom altitudes.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2001

Preliminary evaluation of the importance of existing hydraulic-head observation locations to advective-transport predictions, Death Valley regional flow system, California and Nevada

When a model is calibrated by nonlinear regression, calculated diagnostic statistics and measures of uncertainty provide a wealth of information about many aspects of the system. This report presents a method of ranking the likely importance of existing observation locations using measures of prediction uncertainty. It is suggested that continued monitoring is warranted at more important locations, and unwarranted or less warranted at less important locations. The report develops the methodology and then demonstrates it using the hydraulic-head observation locations of a three-layer model of the Death Valley regional flow system. The predictions of interest are subsurface transport from beneath Yucca Mountain and 14 Underground Test Areas. The advective component of transport is considered because it is the component most affected by the system dynamics represented by the scale model being used. The problem is addressed using the capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey computer program MODFLOW-2000, with its ADVective-Travel Observation (ADV) Package, and an additional computer program developed for this work. The methods presented in this report are used in three ways. (1) The ratings for individual observations are obtained by manipulating the measures of prediction uncertainty, and do not involve recalibrating the model. In this analysis, observation locations are each omitted individually and the resulting increase in uncertainty in the predictions is calculated. The uncertainty is quantified as standard deviations on the simulated advective transport. The increase in uncertainty is quantified as the percent increase in the standard deviations caused by omitting the one observation location from the calculation of standard deviations. In general, observation locations associated with larger increases are rated as more important. (2) Ratings for largely geographically based groups are obtained using a straightforward extension of the method used for individual observation locations. This analysis is needed where observations are clustered to determine whether the area is important to the predictions of interest. (3) Finally, the method is used to evaluate omitting a set of 100 observation locations. The locations were selected because they had low individual ratings and were not one of the few locations at which hydraulic heads from deep in the system were measured. The major results of the three analyses, when applied to the three-layer DVRFS ground-water flow system, are described in the following paragraphs. The discussion is labeled using the numbers 1 to 3 to clearly relate it to the three ways the method is used, as listed above. (1) The individual observation location analysis indicates that three observation locations are most important. They are located in Emigrant Valley, Oasis Valley, and Beatty. Of importance is that these and other observations shown to be important by this analysis are far from the travel paths considered. This displays the importance of the regional setting within which the transport occurs, the importance of including some sites throughout the area in the monitoring network, and the importance of including sites in these areas in particular. The method considered in this report indicates that the 19 observation locations that reflect hydraulic heads deeper in the system (in model layers 1, 2, and 3) are not very important. This appears to be because the locations of these observations are in the vicinity of shallow observation locations that also generally are rated as low importance, and because the model layers are hydraulically well connected vertically. The value of deep observations to testing conceptual models, however, is stressed. As a result, the deep observations are rated higher than is consistent with the results of the analysis presented, and none of these observations are omitted in the scenario discussed under (3) below. (2) The geographic grouping of the observations found one major area of importance not identified by the individual observation analysis. Five of the 49 groups are categorized as most highly important. The most important groups were those that, when omitted, produced mean increases greater than 10 percent at any UGTA site or Yucca Mountain. Four of the five groups were dominated by one individual observation. However, one group, located in Ash Meadows, had no individual observations ranked of high importance but collectively, when omitted, increased uncertainty substantially. Other groups also located in Ash Meadows, including intermediate depth observations, consistently ranked as more important than all other groups. (3) To demonstrate the importance of omitting a set of low-rated observations, one scenario is considered in which the 100 individually lowest-rated shallow and intermediate-depth observation locations are omitted. The measure of overall prediction uncertainty increased by just 0.59 percent, indicating that the wells associated with these observations probably could prudently be measured less frequently.

California, Nevada↗
USGS1997

A Hydrogeologic Map of the Death Valley Region, Nevada and California, Developed Using GIS Techniques

In support of Yucca Mountain site characterization studies, a hydrogeologic framework was developed, and a hydrogeologic map was constructed for the Death Valley region. The region, covering approximately 100,000 km 2 along the Nevada-California border near Las Vegas, is characterized by isolated mountain ranges juxtaposed against broad, alluvium-filled valleys. Geologic conditions are typical of the Basin and Range Province; a variety of sedimentary and igneous intrusive and extrusive rocks have been subjected to both compressional and extensional deformation. The regional ground-water flow system can best be described as a series of connected intermontane basins in which ground-water flow occurs in basin-fill deposits, carbonate rocks, clastic rocks, and volcanic rocks. Previous investigations have developed more site-specific hydrogeologic relationships; however, few have described all the lithologies within the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system. Information required to characterize the hydrogeologic units in the region was obtained from regional geologic maps and reports. Map data were digitized from regional geologic maps and combined into a composite map using a geographic information system. This map was simplified to show 10 laterally extensive hydrogeologic units with distinct hydrologic properties. The hydraulic conductivity values for the hydrogeologic units range over 15 orders of magnitude due to the variability in burial depth and degree of fracturing.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗