Geology topics

Christopher V. Maio

Publications and source records attributed to Christopher V. Maio.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Current and projected flood exposure for Alaska coastal communities

Globally, coastal communities experience flood hazards that are projected to worsen from climate change and sea level rise. The 100-year floodplain or record flood are commonly used to identify risk areas for planning purposes. Remote communities often lack measured flood elevations and require innovative approaches to estimate flood elevations. This study employs observation-based methods to estimate the record flood elevation in Alaska communities and compares results to elevation models, infrastructure locations, and sea level rise projections. In 46 analyzed communities, 22% of structures are located within the record floodplain. With sea level rise projections, this estimate increases to 30–37% of structures by 2100 if structures remain in the same location. Flood exposure is highest in western Alaska. Sea level rise projections suggest northern Alaska will see similar flood exposure levels by 2100 as currently experienced in western Alaska. This evaluation of record flood height, category, and history can be incorporated into hazard planning documents, providing more context for coastal flood exposure than previously existed for Alaska. This basic flood exposure method is transferable to other areas with similar mapping challenges. Identifying current and projected hazardous zones is essential to avoid unintentional development in floodplains and improve long-term safety.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Barrier island reconfiguration leads to rapid erosion and relocation of a rural Alaska community

Coastal erosion is one of the foremost hazards that circumpolar communities face. Climate change and warming temperatures are anticipated to accelerate coastal change, increasing risk to coastal communities. Most erosion hazard studies for Alaska communities only consider linear erosion and do not anticipate coastal morphologic changes. This study showcases the possibility and consequence of accelerated erosion by examining a shift from stability to rapid erosion that forced the rural Alaska Native village of Meshik (now Port Heiden) to abandon the original town site and relocate inland. A combination of remote sensing, coastal surveys, and community-based monitoring are used to map coastal morphologic changes and identify erosion drivers. The community’s shoreline was stable until a protective barrier island eroded away. The exposure to open ocean waves, coupled with unconsolidated, low-density sediments, led to rapid erosion rates averaging of 5.8 ± 0.6 m/y from the 1970s to 2020s. The sudden and rapid erosion put great stress on Meshik and resulted in the loss of homes, erosion of a safe boat harbor, and pollution of the beach and bay. Erosion of the barrier island coincided with a period of greater storm activity and sea ice decline, but the exact cause for its erosion could not be determined. Many polar communities are built on or behind barriers and are on easily erodible soils such as sands and thawing permafrost. This study highlights the need to study, monitor, and predict morphologic change and regime shifts that can bring catastrophic impacts to coastal communities.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Coastal permafrost erosion

Highlights • Since the early 2000s, erosion of permafrost coasts in the Arctic has increased at 13 of 14 sites with observational data that extend back to ca. 1960 and ca. 1980, coinciding with warming temperatures, sea ice reduction, and permafrost thaw. • Permafrost coasts along the US and Canadian Beaufort Sea experienced the largest increase in erosion rates in the Arctic, ranging from +80 to +160%, when comparing average rates from the last two decades of the 20th century with the first two decades of the 21st century. • The initiation of several national and international research networks in recent years has enabled closer coordination and collaboration of measurements and a better understanding of pan-Arctic permafrost coastal dynamics.

Arctic Report Card↗

USGS2019

Salt marsh ecosystem restructuring enhances elevation resilience and carbon storage during accelerating relative sea-level rise

Salt marshes respond to sea-level rise through a series of complex and dynamic bio-physical feedbacks. In this study, we found that sea-level rise triggered salt marsh habitat restructuring, with the associated vegetation changes enhancing salt marsh elevation resilience. A continuous record of marsh elevation relative to sea level that includes reconstruction of high-resolution, sub-decadal, marsh elevation over the past century, coupled with a lower-resolution 1500-year record, revealed that relative sea-level rose 1.5 ± 0.4 m, following local glacial isostatic adjustment (1.2 mm/yr). As sea-level rise has rapidly accelerated, the high marsh zone dropped 11 cm within the tidal frame since 1932, leading to greater inundation and a shift to flood- and salt-tolerant low marsh species. Once the marsh platform fell to the elevation favored by low-marsh Spartina alterniflora , the elevation stabilized relative to sea level. Currently low marsh accretion keeps pace with sea-level rise, while present day high marsh zones that have not transitioned to low marsh have a vertical accretion deficit. Greater biomass productivity, and an expanding subsurface accommodation space favorable for salt marsh organic matter preservation, provide a positive feed-back between sea-level rise and marsh platform elevation. Carbon storage was 46 ± 28 g C/m 2 /yr from 550 to 1800 CE, increasing to 129 ± 50 g C/m 2 /yr in the last decade. Enhanced carbon storage is controlled by vertical accretion rates, rather than soil carbon density, and is a direct response to anthropogenic eustatic sea-level rise, ultimately providing a negative feedback on climate warming.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2018

A decade of remotely sensed observations highlight complex processes linked to coastal permafrost bluff erosion in the Arctic

Eroding permafrost coasts are indicators and integrators of changes in the Arctic System as they are susceptible to the combined effects of declining sea ice extent, increases in open water duration, more frequent and impactful storms, sea-level rise, and warming permafrost. However, few observation sites in the Arctic have yet to link decadal-scale erosion rates with changing environmental conditions due to temporal data gaps. This study increases the temporal fidelity of coastal permafrost bluff observations using near-annual high spatial resolution (<1 m) satellite imagery acquired between 2008 and 2017 for a 9-km segment of coastline at Drew Point, Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska. Our results show that mean annual erosion for the 2007 to 2016 decade was 17.2 m yr-1, which is 2.5 times faster than historic rates, indicating that bluff erosion at this site is likely responding to changes in the Arctic System. In spite of a sustained increase in decadal-scale mean annual erosion rates, mean open water season erosion varied from 6.7 m yr-1 in 2010 to more than 22.0 m yr-1 in 2007, 2012, and 2016. This variability provided a range of coastal responses through which we explored the different roles of potential environmental drivers. The lack of significant correlations between mean open water season erosion and the environmental variables compiled in this study indicates that we may not be adequately capturing the environmental forcing factors, that the system is conditioned by long-term transient effects or extreme weather events rather than annual variability, or that other not yet considered factors may be responsible for the increased erosion occurring at Drew Point. Our results highlight an increase in erosion at Drew Point in the 21st century as well as the complexities associated with unraveling the factors responsible for changing coastal permafrost bluffs in the Arctic.

Alaska↗