Christopher Kleckner | Geology Reports

USGS2006

Evaluation of aerial survey methods for Dall's sheep

Most Dall's sheep ( Ovis dalli dalli ) population-monitoring efforts use intensive aerial surveys with no attempt to estimate variance or adjust for potential sightability bias. We used radiocollared sheep to assess factors that could affect sightability of Dall's sheep in standard fixed-wing and helicopter surveys and to evaluate feasibility of methods that might account for sightability bias. Work was conducted in conjunction with annual aerial surveys of Dall's sheep in the western Baird Mountains, Alaska, USA, in 2000–2003. Overall sightability was relatively high compared with other aerial wildlife surveys, with 88% of the available, marked sheep detected in our fixed-wing surveys. Total counts from helicopter surveys were not consistently larger than counts from fixed-wing surveys of the same units, and detection probabilities did not differ for the 2 aircraft types. Our results suggest that total counts from helicopter surveys cannot be used to obtain reliable estimates of detection probabilities for fixed-wing surveys. Groups containing radiocollared sheep often changed in size and composition before they could be observed by a second crew in units that were double-surveyed. Double-observer methods that require determination of which groups were detected by each observer will be infeasible unless survey procedures can be modified so that groups remain more stable between observations. Mean group sizes increased during our study period, and our logistic regression sightability model indicated that detection probabilities increased with group size. Mark–resight estimates of annual population sizes were similar to sightability-model estimates, and confidence intervals overlapped broadly. We recommend the sightability-model approach as the most effective and feasible of the alternatives we considered for monitoring Dall's sheep populations.

Alaska↗

USGS2003

Demography of Dall's sheep in northwestern Alaska

Dall’s sheep in northwestern Alaska declined in the early 1990s following the severe 1989-90 and 1990-91 winters. In the Baird Mountains of Noatak National Preserve, estimates of adult sheep declined by 50% from 800 in 1989 to under 400 in 1991. Population counts remained low throughout 1991 to 1996, reaching a minimum of 244 adult sheep in 1996. Few lambs were observed during annual midsummer aerial surveys in 1991 to 1994. We suspect that these declines resulted from a combination of poorer nutritional condition and increased vulnerability of sheep to predation resulting from severe winter conditions. As a result of these declines, both subsistence and sport hunting seasons were closed by emergency order in 1991, resulting in substantial management controversy. The affected publics, although willing to accept the closures, questioned the validity of the sheep survey data and strongly emphasized their interest in restoring harvests as soon as populations increased sufficiently. In 1995 the Northwest Arctic Regional Advisory Council, the local advisory committee for the Federal Subsistence Board, passed a motion supporting efforts to initiate research on sheep populations in the region to better understand the factors limiting sheep populations and to evaluate sheep survey methodologies. Currently estimates of Dall’s sheep population size and composition in the western Brooks Range are based on intensive fixed-wing aerial surveys conducted annually since 1986 in areas including the Baird Mountains. The annual variation in recent Baird Mountains aerial counts cannot be explained with reasonable assumptions about reproduction and survival, suggesting that there is some variability in the proportion of the population observed each year or that a substantial number of sheep move during the survey. Prior to our research, no attempt had been made to estimate visibility bias or precision for these surveys. Our understanding of Dall’s sheep population biology comes largely from studies in central or southern Alaska and the southern Yukon. However, sheep in northwestern Alaska are at the northwestern extreme of their range and live in a less hospitable environment characterized by short growing seasons and long, severe winters. We expect patterns of productivity and survival for sheep in Noatak National Preserve to differ from the more southerly populations. To adequately manage sheep harvests in northwestern Alaska, we need a better understanding of sheep demography. Along with unbiased population estimates, understanding the dynamics of sheep populations in the region will allow population models to be developed that can provide focus for a useful dialog on management goals and strategies and facilitate a cooperative strategy for managing sheep harvests in northwestern Alaska.

Alaska↗