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Chris Geremia

Publications and source records attributed to Chris Geremia.

11 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Predicted genetic consequences of alternative population control strategies for North American plains bison in Yellowstone National Park

North American plains bison ( Bison bison bison ) in Yellowstone National Park are descendant from a population low of 23 indigenous individuals from the late 1800s, and 21 individuals introduced from outside herds in the early 1900s to strengthen the possibility of recovery. Within the park, the herd has rebounded and now averages around 5,000 animals. The herd is managed as a closed population within the park and adjacent areas in Montana, USA, which involves annual removals of animals to control numbers. We used genetic simulation to first isolate the effects of population size on retention of genetic diversity, and second to predict the genetic consequences of different population control strategies that vary in the number of bison removed annually, and their relatedness, while considering varying degrees of male dominance and environmental catastrophes. We found through simulation of a stable population that a herd size >2,500 had a high probability (>0.9) of retaining genetic diversity at levels compatible with long-term conservation (>90% of the initial genetic variation over 200 years), but a herd of 3,500 or more had a high likelihood (>0.9) of retaining levels of genetic variation (95%) suggested for maintaining evolutionary potential. When simulating the removals based on plausible management strategies available to the National Park Service, we found that maintaining a herd size of 3,500 or more, limiting removals to less than 40% of the population at a time, keeping a balanced sex ratio, and preferentially removing related individuals would likely retain more than 95% of existing genetic variation. With a herd size of 3,500 animals or more, population catastrophes and male dominance only influenced genetic retention in the most extreme cases, such as a catastrophic population decline of over 95%, a prolonged decline from 90% to 10% over 5 years, or extreme male dominance where 1% of males produced all offspring each year.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2025

Expression and mechanisms of behavioral plasticity in large mammals

Behavioral plasticity, the alteration of behavior in response to stimuli, is becoming increasingly important in the context of human-induced rapid environmental change. Theoretical and empirical studies suggest that the expression and magnitude of behavioral plasticity are likely facilitated or constrained primarily by two factors: environmental variation and endogenous traits such as body size. The contextual role of these factors on behavioral plasticity, however, is poorly understood; there are relatively few studies that have compared the magnitude and potential drivers of behavioral plasticity at different levels (i.e., population and individual) across species, especially in free-ranging animals with diverse behavioral traits such as large mammals. Here, we quantify and test potential hypotheses for the mechanisms underpinning behavioral plasticity at the individual and population level in response to variation in summer temperatures for 1068 animal-years in 17 populations across nine species of large mammals. All populations displayed behavioral plasticity in response to increased temperatures, modifying their relative selection for heat-relieving habitat attributes (e.g., elevation) and heat-generating behavior (i.e., movement speed). We found strong support for the hypothesis that the variability of the physical environment is an important driver of behavioral plasticity—both mean population behavioral plasticity and variation among individuals within each population in plasticity were lower with increased heterogeneity of habitat attributes such as tree cover. Yet, the variability in environmental conditions (i.e., the magnitude of the temperature increase) had no effect on behavioral plasticity within and among populations. We did not detect an effect of endogenous traits on the expression of behavioral plasticity; however, we note that data availability limited our tests of this hypothesis to a select few endogenous traits (body size, feeding guild, and sex of the tracked individuals) that predominantly vary at the species level, for which we had one to three replicate populations per species. Our results provide an integrative and generalizable understanding of the expression of behavioral plasticity among populations of large mammals in temperate environments and emphasize the important but nuanced role of environmental variation in determining the scope of behavioral plasticity in these populations.

Wyoming↗
USGS2025

Beyond habitat: Memory versus environment in shaping animal space use

For nearly half a century, ecologists have sought to explain animal space use through characteristics of the environment (i.e., habitat). Recent evidence suggests animals also use memory of previous experiences to decide when and where to move. Yet, the relative influence of the two in explaining animal space use has not been resolved. Using six large ungulate species in the Rocky Mountains (USA), we evaluated the performance of a habitat selection model with 16 environmental variables and another with two variables representing previous use (i.e., memory). While memory outperformed the environment for two species and the environment outperformed memory for four species, the influence of memory and the environment was overall comparable. The environment best explained the space use of specialists, while memory best explained species with strong site fidelity. Our work challenges traditional habitat selection theory, showcasing that animals build their spatial preferences through experience just as much as merely responding to their environment.

Wyoming↗
USGS2025

Assessing shifting technology in genetic monitoring of the North American plains bison Federal conservation herds

Human expansion is a major driver of both declining wildlife abundance and the contraction of species’ distributions, increasing the risk of genetic erosion and the need for genetic monitoring. Rapidly advancing technology has expanded the types of genetic data that are available for wildlife conservation. However, inferences from different genetic markers could result in different management decisions and, thus, must be considered carefully. Rebounding from near extinction in the early 1900s, the majority of North American plains bison ( Bison bison bison ) are managed as small and isolated herds. Microsatellite-based analyses have been used to inform management of the US Federal bison conservation herds since the early 2000s. Transitioning from monitoring with tens of multiallelic loci (e.g., microsatellite loci) to thousands of biallelic loci (e.g., single nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]) could increase genotyping efficiency and improve the precision of population genetic inference but would require an understanding of the inferential differences between genetic marker types. We compared microsatellite-based measures of genetic diversity, differentiation, and population structure for 20 bison conservation herds (17 Federal, 1 Tribal, 2 Canadian) to inference from SNP-based analyses for the Tribal herd and 15 of the Federal herds. Data from both genetic marker types found that all herds have remarkably high genetic diversity given the severity of the bottleneck from which these populations recovered, and that population structure was consistent with founding histories. Importantly, SNPs had greater power to describe differences in genetic diversity and groups of related herds, but only if analyses are based on 250 or more loci. Overall, we found that microsatellite and SNP data can provide comparable conservation insight, but SNPs must be carefully selected to ensure continuity in genetic monitoring and to achieve the increased precision in genetic diversity and differentiation among herds that we observed in this study.

Conservation Genetics↗
USGS2025

Consistent individual differences and plasticity in migration behaviour of three North American ungulates

Migratory herbivores often time spring migration to coincide with the green-up of plants. When the timing of green-up changes across years, herbivores can respond directly and be plastic to changing conditions or populations may adapt via inherent differences among individuals that may allow for an evolutionary response. We quantified plasticity and individual variation in the timing of spring migration and selection for high-quality forage as a function of the timing of spring green-up using behavioural reaction norms for three North American ungulate species. The timing of arrival to summer range (but not departure from winter range) was plastic to the timing of green-up, and both arrival and departure timing were repeatable. Our results suggest that herbivores synchronise migration with the timing of green-up by adjusting the pace of migration and may be buffered against change via individual differences. Quantifying plasticity and differences in responses represents a crucial step to elucidating the fate of species in a changing world.

Wyoming↗
USGS2023

Behavioral responses of terrestrial mammals to COVID-19 lockdowns

COVID-19 lockdowns reduced human mobility, providing an opportunity to disentangle its effects on animals from those of landscape modifications. Using GPS data, we compared movements and road avoidance of 2300 terrestrial mammals (43 species) during the 2020 lockdowns to the same period in 2019. Individual responses were variable, with no change in average movements or road avoidance behavior, likely due to variable lockdown conditions. However, under strict lockdowns,10-day, 95th percentile displacements increased by 73%, suggesting increased landscape permeability. In areas of high human footprint, animals' 1-hour, 95th percentile displacements declined by 12%, and animals were 36% closer to roads, indicating reduced avoidance during lockdowns. Overall, lockdowns rapidly altered some spatial behaviors, highlighting the variable but substantial impact of human mobility on wildlife worldwide.

Science↗
USGS2021

Mapping out a future for ungulate migrations

Migration of ungulates (hooved mammals) is a fundamental ecological process that promotes abundant herds, whose effects cascade up and down terrestrial food webs. Migratory ungulates provide the prey base that maintains large carnivore and scavenger populations and underpins terrestrial biodiversity (fig. S1). When ungulates move in large aggregations, their hooves, feces, and urine create conditions that facilitate distinct biotic communities. The migrations of ungulates have sustained humans for thousands of years, forming tight cultural links among Indigenous people and local communities. Yet ungulate migrations are disappearing at an alarming rate ( 1 ). Efforts by wildlife managers and conservationists are thwarted by a singular challenge: Most ungulate migrations have never been mapped in sufficient detail to guide effective conservation. Without a strategic and collaborative effort, many of the world's great migrations will continue to be truncated, severed, or lost in the coming decades. Fortunately, a combination of animal tracking datasets, historical records, and local and Indigenous knowledge can form the basis for a global atlas of migrations, designed to support conservation action and policy at local, national, and international levels.

Science↗
USGS2020

Ungulate migrations of the western United States, Volume 1

Across the western United States, many ungulate herds must migrate seasonally to access resources and avoid harsh winter conditions. Because these migration paths cover vast landscapes (in other words migration distances up to 150 miles [241 kilometers]), they are increasingly threatened by roads, fencing, subdivisions, and other development. Over the last decade, many new tracking studies have been conducted on migratory herds, and analytical methods have been developed that allow for population-level corridors and stopovers to be mapped and prioritized. In 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey assembled a Corridor Mapping Team to provide technical assistance to western states working to map bison, elk, moose, mule deer, and pronghorn migrations using existing Global Positioning System data. Led by the Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, the team consists of federal scientists, university researchers, and biologists and analysts from participating state agencies. In its first year, the team has worked to develop standardized analytical and computational methods and a workflow applicable to datasets typically collected by state agencies. In 2019, the team completed analyses necessary to map corridors, stopovers, routes and winter ranges in Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming. A total of 26 corridors, 16 migration routes, 25 stopovers, and 9 winter ranges were mapped across these states and are included in this report. This report and associated data release provide the means for the habitats required for migration to be taken into account by state and federal transportation officials, land and wildlife managers, planners, and other conservationists working to maintain big-game migration in the western states.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2019

Migrating bison engineer the green wave

Newly emerging plants provide the best forage for herbivores. To exploit this fleeting resource, migrating herbivores align their movements to surf the wave of spring green-up. With new technology to track migrating animals, the Green Wave Hypothesis has steadily gained empirical support across a diversity of migratory taxa. This hypothesis assumes the green wave is controlled by variation in climate, weather, and topography, and its progression dictates the timing, pace, and extent of migrations. However, aggregate grazers that are also capable of engineering grassland ecosystems make some of the world’s most impressive migrations, and it is unclear how the green wave determines their movements. Here we show that Yellowstone’s bison ( Bison bison ) do not choreograph their migratory movements to the wave of spring green-up. Instead, bison modify the green wave as they migrate and graze. While most bison surfed during early spring, they eventually slowed and let the green wave pass them by. However, small-scale experiments indicated that feedback from grazing sustained forage quality. Most importantly, a 6-fold decadal shift in bison density revealed that intense grazing caused grasslands to green up faster, more intensely, and for a longer duration. Our finding broadens our understanding of the ways in which animal movements underpin the foraging benefit of migration. The widely accepted Green Wave Hypothesis needs to be revised to include large aggregate grazers that not only move to find forage, but also engineer plant phenology through grazing, thereby shaping their own migratory movements.

California↗
USGS2015

State-space modeling to support management of brucellosis in the Yellowstone bison population

The bison ( Bison bison ) of the Yellowstone ecosystem, USA, exemplify the difficulty of conserving large mammals that migrate across the boundaries of conservation areas. Bison are infected with brucellosis ( Brucella abortus ) and their seasonal movements can expose livestock to infection. Yellowstone National Park has embarked on a program of adaptive management of bison, which requires a model that assimilates data to support management decisions. We constructed a Bayesian state-space model to reveal the influence of brucellosis on the Yellowstone bison population. A frequency-dependent model of brucellosis transmission was superior to a density-dependent model in predicting out-of-sample observations of horizontal transmission probability. A mixture model including both transmission mechanisms converged on frequency dependence. Conditional on the frequency-dependent model, brucellosis median transmission rate was 1.87 yr −1 . The median of the posterior distribution of the basic reproductive ratio ( R 0 ) was 1.75. Seroprevalence of adult females varied around 60% over two decades, but only 9.6 of 100 adult females were infectious. Brucellosis depressed recruitment; estimated population growth rate λ averaged 1.07 for an infected population and 1.11 for a healthy population. We used five-year forecasting to evaluate the ability of different actions to meet management goals relative to no action. Annually removing 200 seropositive female bison increased by 30-fold the probability of reducing seroprevalence below 40% and increased by a factor of 120 the probability of achieving a 50% reduction in transmission probability relative to no action. Annually vaccinating 200 seronegative animals increased the likelihood of a 50% reduction in transmission probability by fivefold over no action. However, including uncertainty in the ability to implement management by representing stochastic variation in the number of accessible bison dramatically reduced the probability of achieving goals using interventions relative to no action. Because the width of the posterior predictive distributions of future population states expands rapidly with increases in the forecast horizon, managers must accept high levels of uncertainty. These findings emphasize the necessity of iterative, adaptive management with relatively short-term commitment to action and frequent reevaluation in response to new data and model forecasts. We believe our approach has broad applications.

Wyoming↗