Geology topics

Cheryl A. Eddy-Miller

Publications and source records attributed to Cheryl A. Eddy-Miller.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Spatial and temporal drivers of variability in abundance of two stream fishes

An understanding of how and why animal populations vary in space and time informs effective conservation and management. We used spatial and temporal flow metrics to explore flow-ecology relationships for two fish species, Mountain Sucker Pantosteus platyrhynchus (Cope, 1874) and Mottled Sculpin Cottus bairdii Girard, 1850, across 64 sites and 8 years in Wyoming, U.S.A. We found variation in Mottled Sculpin and Mountain Sucker abundance was driven to a greater extent by spatial flow metrics (e.g., drainage area, median summer flow) with differing direction of response between species. The opposing responses to spatial variation in median summer flow could reflect the ability of Mountain Sucker to persist in non-perennial habitats, likely due to their relatively high mobility and recolonization capacity. Responses to temporal flow metrics (e.g., previous year spring flow, previous year autumn flow) were weaker but consistent across species likely due to similar reproductive strategies and timing. The lack of stronger flow effects on population variability in both species likely corresponds to high variability in local habitat characteristics that are mediating population response. These findings underscore how considering spatial context informs conservation planning and suggest that flow-ecology relationships may be mediated by species-specific traits and local habitat conditions.

Wyoming↗

USGS2026

The influence of riparian zone grazing on channel stability in an arroyo

The introduction of large herds of domesticated grazing animals by European immigrants in the late 19th century is one primary hypothesis used to explain the initiation of arroyo cutting in the American West. But studies designed to quantify the effects of grazing on watershed hydrology and sedimentation have had conflicting results that are often scale dependent. We used a before-and-after study design to examine effects of changes in cattle grazing practices on channel stability in Muddy Creek, an arroyo in the Colorado River headwaters. We digitized 620 meander loop cutoff geometries in the alluvial bottom of Muddy Creek and used meander loop cutoff rate as a broad measure of channel stability. Poisson regression modeling indicated that the change in grazing practices caused an order-of-magnitude decrease in meander loop cutoff rate that was independent of other forcings. Repeat measurements of channel geometry showed a decline in bankfull channel width of about 40% after the changes were implemented. Increases in riparian vegetation density are deduced to be the primary mechanism for the increase in channel stability. Prior to the changes in grazing practices, at least one meander loop cutoff occurred each year, some of which were large enough to create headcuts that scale with the depth of downcutting in this arroyo system. Our analysis demonstrates the profound effects that different grazing practices have on channel stability in headwater arroyo systems, and the potential for grazing animals to initiate a cascade of sediment yields to receiving stream networks.

Colorado, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Fluvial sediment dynamics in the Shoshone River and tributaries around Willwood Dam, Park County, Wyoming

Sedimentation affects many of the aging reservoirs in the United States. Dams and water diversions from rivers have been central elements of infrastructure supporting agricultural irrigation in the arid and semiarid regions of the Western United States for more than a century. The Willwood Irrigation District diversion dam (hereafter referred to as “Willwood Dam”) in Park County, Wyoming, is approximately 12 miles northeast of Cody, Wyo.; has a structural height of 70 feet; and impounds the Shoshone River for diversion into the Willwood Canal. Willwood Dam is part of a larger irrigation scheme supported by water storage in the much larger Buffalo Bill Dam, which is approximately 20 miles upstream. In October 2016, renovation construction activities at Willwood Dam and the Willwood Canal caused an unplanned evacuation of nearly 96,000 cubic yards of fine sediment. The fine sediment release in 2016 raised concerns that ongoing sediment management at Willwood Dam could impose limits on the long-term health of the aquatic ecosystem and fish populations. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality and Willwood Work Groups 2 and 3, initiated an investigation of the dynamics of sediment transport in the Shoshone River and selected tributaries between Buffalo Bill Dam and Willwood Dam. The goal of the study was to quantify sediment transport into and out of Willwood Dam on an annual, seasonal, and event basis to better understand the relative quantities of sediment coming from natural sources and human activities on the landscape. The study ran from March 2019 through October 2021 and used observations of streamflow, turbidity, and acoustic backscatter collected at streamgages upstream and downstream from Willwood Dam to quantify suspended-sediment loads into and out of the dam during irrigation and fallow seasons, precipitation-runoff events, and deliberate sediment releases. Each tributary’s relative contribution to the sediment load upstream from Willwood Dam was examined using discrete measurements of suspended-sediment concentration and bedload during irrigation and fallow seasons, precipitation events, and stable conditions. Analysis of daily precipitation and temperature data indicated that conditions in the study area during the 2019 agricultural year were wetter and colder than period of record normal, and drier and near normal temperatures for the 2020 and 2021 agricultural years. Not all sediment load records between 2019 and 2021 are complete because of rejected observations (outliers), instrument failures or fouling, and instrument removal for calibrations. Statistical modeling of suspended-sediment concentration using paired values of turbidity and acoustic backscatter produced four models that, after refinement, had coefficients of determination indicating that more than 84 percent of the variance was explained by either turbidity or acoustic backscatter. A system of rules was developed to select the model predictions based on the seasonal operations of Willwood Dam, assumptions about the grain sizes mobilized during these operations, and assumed accuracy of the models at the downstream streamgage (Shoshone River below Willwood Dam, near Ralston, Wyo. [streamgage 06284010]) under different operational conditions. The sediment budget between upstream and downstream estimates of loads was interpreted using the mean predicted values bound by their respective model prediction intervals. When mean predicted loads of one streamgage were contained in the prediction intervals of the other streamgage, and vice-versa, difference in the sediment budget were interpreted as “indeterminate.” Modeled sediment load balances demonstrated the depositional and erosional behaviors expected from the conceptual model of dam operations whereby sediment tends to accumulate during irrigation seasons when the dam is spilling over the top, and sediment tends to evacuate during the fallow seasons when it is flowing through the sluice gates at the base of the dam. The sediment load calculations using the rules-based model criteria indicated that between 14,200 and 380,000 tons of suspended sediment moved through the Shoshone River around Willwood Dam during the irrigation seasons of 2019, 2020, and 2021; 380,000 tons of suspended sediment were transported during the cool, wet year of 2019, and 14,200 tons of suspended sediment were transported in 2020, which was relatively dry. During fallow seasons 2019, 2020, and 2021, which had fewer complete records, between 1,140 and 106,000 tons of suspended sediment was estimated to have moved through the river. For all seasons except fallow season 2022, the models estimated that more sediment was released from the dam than entered the dam, but the modeled mean loads at each streamgage were nearly always within the prediction intervals of each other, making the sediment balance indeterminant. Examination of suspended-sediment loads during irrigation seasons indicated that between 65 and 85 percent of fine sediment was transported during annual high flows and storm events, with the remainder transported during steady, lower streamflows. Examination of suspended loads during fallow seasons indicated that deliberate sediment releases through Willwood Dam accounted for between 39 and 67 percent of the total sediment moved during the fallow seasons. Deliberate sediment releases from Willwood Dam had estimated net exports of between 1,360 and 22,400 tons. Between August 2017 and July 2023, suspended-sediment concentration and bedload sediment samples were collected from 9 tributaries to the Shoshone River during 137 sampling events, including stable and precipitation-runoff conditions. During irrigation season precipitation events, the mean total sediment yields ranged from 0.33 to 9.51 tons per day per square mile; during fallow season precipitation events, the mean total yields ranged from 0.04 to 0.95 ton per day per square mile. The mean total sediment yield per unit area across all samples at each tributary site ranged from 0.26 to 3.08 tons per day per square mile. Bedload was a minor fraction of the total load, constituting a mean of 4 percent across all samples; 3 and 6 percent for events and nonevents, respectively, during irrigation season; and 3 and 1 percent for events and nonevents, respectively, during the fallow season. With the exception of one tributary, Dry Creek, these mean yield values were within the range of watershed-scale background sediment yield values estimated from reservoir surveys and previous suspended-sediment studies. Imagery from irrigation seasons 2012, 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2022 was used to determine the planimetric backwater extent of the pool area in the Shoshone River behind Willwood Dam to identify any changes in sediment storage. Active river channel widths in the Shoshone River upstream from Willwood Dam were all similar between years except 2015, which was determined to be statistically different from all other years. Bathymetric data taken in the pool behind Willwood Dam during three different surveys between November 2017 and April 2022 indicated no statistically significant differences in bed elevations between the years. Results from the planimetric and bathymetric survey data provide multiple lines of evidence indicating that sediment did not accumulate behind the dam within the error of the methods used. Examination of how precipitation affects sediment transport in the Shoshone River upstream from Willwood Dam indicated that accumulated rainfall from the natural runoff events captured during the study period varied from a trace to as much as 4.26 inches, with associated predicted suspended-sediment loads varying from 112 to 232,000 tons of suspended sediment. The behavior of the sediment loads relative to accumulated precipitation did not appear to change depending on irrigation or fallow season. A model of suspended-sediment concentrations relative to the 2-day accumulated precipitation indicated that suspended-sediment concentrations in the Shoshone River upstream from Willwood Dam increased exponentially for accumulations of 0.3 inch or more; such storms accounted for 10 percent or less of precipitation events observed during the 1981 to 2018 period of record. The gaps in records, precision of the instrumentation, and large variation in grain sizes in suspended-sediment mixtures downstream from the dam made closing the sediment budgets for most seasons unattainable. The biggest recent change in sediment storage measured using the planimetric area of deposits behind Willwood Dam took place between 2015 and 2017. The main event between these two measurements was the installation of new Willwood Canal gates in October 2016, which resulted in the large unplanned sediment release. Because the sediment budgets were nearly always indeterminate and the planimetric and bathymetric data indicated little change in the bed and bank material, it is likely that the change in sediment storage behind the dam during the study period was small relative to the precision of the statistical models and other uncertainties. This body of evidence suggests that, averaged during the 3-year study period, no major changes in storage took place, and that the current operations may be keeping storage at near-equilibrium. This condition could have been initiated because the middle sluice gate has now been operational since 2014, and the sediment release in October 2016 evacuated a large amount of legacy sediment from storage. Although the uncertainties are large, sluicing events allow for controlled releases of sediment that contributed to the near equilibrium conditions observed over an annual basis during this study.

Wyoming↗

USGS2025

U.S. Geological Survey streamgage network in the Upper Colorado River Basin—Recording the hydrologic history of the Western United States

Introduction Water supply in the Western United States is an essential resource, and the collection of accurate and timely water information is fundamental to effectively managing water resources in the region. Efforts to document the hydrology in the Colorado River Basin are vital to life in the Western United States. These efforts began as far back as the initial John Wesley Powell exploration of the Colorado River and its tributaries in the summer of 1869. Shortly after, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was created in 1879, and the first USGS systematic measurement of streamflow began at the first streamgage, 08279500 Rio Grande at Embudo, New Mexico, in 1889. During its 146-year existence, the USGS has served the citizens of the United States in many roles, notably through long-standing stewardship in water science. For example, the USGS has collected hydrologic information at strategic locations within the Western United States to support water resource management, flood forecasting and response, interbasin water transfers, hydropower generation, municipal and agricultural water supplies, food security, recreation, habitat preservation, international treaty obligations and river compact compliance, and the operation of major water-storage projects, including Lake Powell and Lake Mead bordering Utah and Arizona, and Nevada and Arizona, respectively.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2022

Comparison of water year 2021 streamflow to historical data at selected sites in the Snake River Basin, Wyoming

The headwaters of the Snake River are in the mountains of northwestern Wyoming on lands primarily administered by the National Park Service and the Bridger-Teton National Forest. Streamflow from the Snake River Basin has been measured at some sites for more than 100 years. Water from this drainage basin is used for recreational, agricultural, and municipal uses and power generation. Because of the many uses of the water and the ongoing drought in the Western United States, there is interest in how streamflow in water year 2021 compared to the historical data. Historical streamflow data are defined as the operational period of the streamgage through water year 2020. A water year is named for the year in which it ends; therefore, water year 2021 is October 1, 2020, through September 30, 2021.

Wyoming↗

USGS2022

Testing the potential of streamflow data to predict spring migration of an ungulate herds

In mountainous and high latitude regions, migratory animals exploit green waves of emerging vegetation coinciding with rising daily mean temperatures initiating snowmelt across the landscape. Snowmelt also causes rivers and streams draining these regions to swell, a process referred to as to as the ‘spring pulse.’ Networks of streamgages measuring streamflow in these regions often have long-term and continuous periods of record available in real-time and at the daily time step, and thus produce data with potential to predict temporal migration patterns for species exploiting green waves. We tested the potential of models informed by streamflow data to predict timing of spring migration of mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) herds in a headwater basin of the Colorado River. Models using streamflow data were compared with those informed by traditional temperature-derived measures of the onset of spring. Non-parametric linear-regression techniques were used to test for temporal stationarity in each variable, and logistic-regression models were used to produce probabilities of migration initiation. Our analysis indicates that models using daily streamflow data can perform as well as those using temperature-derived data to predict past-migration patterns, and nearly as well in potential to forecast future migrations. The best performing model was used to generate probabilities of onset of migration for mule deer herds over the 69-year period-of-record from a streamgage. That model indicated spring migration has been trending toward earlier initiations, with modeled median initiations shifting from a Julian day of 123 in the mid 20 th century to Julian day 115 over the most recent two decades. The period of 1960 to 1979 had the latest modeled median initiations with Julian day of 128. The analyses demonstrate promise for merging existing hydrologic and biological data collection platforms in these regions to explore timing of past migration patterns and predict migration onsets in real-time.

Colorado, Wyoming↗

USGS2021

Discharge and dissolved-solids characteristics of Blacks Fork above Smiths Fork, Wyoming, April 2018 through September 2019

The Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Forum was formed in 1973 to coordinate salinity control efforts among the States in the Colorado River Basin, including Wyoming. The Colorado River Salinity Control Act of 1974 (Public Law 93–320) authorized “the construction, operation, and maintenance of certain works in the Colorado River Basin to control the salinity of water delivered to users in the United States and Mexico.” Water-quality standards for salinity in the lower Colorado River Basin were adopted in 1975. To help meet these standards, the Bureau of Reclamation, Natural Resource Conservation Service, and States within the Colorado River Basin have implemented salinity control projects that focus on reducing salt loading associated with irrigated agriculture by improving water delivery systems and water management practices. The term salinity is synonymous with dissolved solids in this report. The Bureau of Reclamation, in conjunction with the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Forum, was interested in determining the contribution of dissolved solids from Blacks Fork above Smiths Fork to the Colorado River and initiated a study of Blacks Fork above Smiths Fork in 2018. In early 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey installed a streamgage at the most downstream location on the Blacks Fork, upstream from the convergence with Smiths Fork, to characterize the stream. The Blacks Fork above Smiths Fork, near Lyman, Wyoming, streamgage (U.S. Geological Survey identifier 09219200) was operated from April 4, 2018, through September 30, 2019, collecting continuous stream stage and specific-conductance data, from which continuous discharge, dissolved-solids concentrations, and dissolved-solids loads were calculated. Seven sites were selected on Blacks Fork and a tributary to describe a snapshot of the discharge and dissolved-solids characteristics. These sites were sampled during July, August, and September 2018 and June, July, August, and September 2019 report. Discharge at the Blacks Fork above Smiths Fork, near Lyman, Wyo., streamgage (09219200) from April through September in 2018 was lower and less variable than during the same period in 2019. The mean daily (mean of the daily means) discharge during those 6 months in 2018 (15.1 cubic feet per second [ft 3 /s]) was about one-tenth of the discharge during the same period in 2019 (152 ft 3 /s). The cumulative monthly discharge during April through September in 2018 was 5,360 acre-feet, about one-tenth of the discharge during the same period in 2019 which was 54,700 acre-feet. Similar differences in discharge between the 2018 and 2019 periods also are noted at other Blacks Fork streamgages in the area. Continuous specific conductance data and the statistical relation between specific conductance and dissolved-solids concentrations were used to calculate the daily mean dissolved-solids concentrations. Dissolved solids often have an inverse relation with discharge because higher discharges typically have a diluting effect that lowers the dissolved-solids concentrations. In general, when discharges at the Blacks Fork above Smiths Fork streamgage (09219200) are higher, dissolved-solids concentrations are generally lower. However, the high dissolved-solids concentrations that are measured during high discharges indicate that the system has natural variability and the dissolved-solids concentrations are determined by more factors than just discharge. The mean daily dissolved-solids concentration during April through September 2018 was 1,630 milligrams per liter and during the same period in 2019 was 1,100 milligrams per liter. Dissolved-solids loads were calculated as the product of the discharge and dissolved-solids concentration. The daily mean dissolved-solids loads during 2018 were typically lower than during 2019. This result is primarily because the discharge was much lower in 2018 than in 2019. Therefore, although the daily mean dissolved-solids concentrations tended to be higher in 2018, the substantially higher discharges in 2019 had more of an effect on the dissolved-solids loads than the dissolved-solids concentrations. The cumulative dissolved-solids load at the Blacks Fork above Smiths Fork, near Lyman, Wyo., streamgage (09219200) during the 18-month study was 81,200 tons, with a mean daily load of 149 tons per day. During the 6-month period from April through September 2018, the cumulative dissolved-solids load at the streamgage was estimated to be 8,740 tons and, during the same 6 months in 2019, the cumulative dissolved-solids load was estimated to be 60,900 tons. During the fall and winter between the two periods, the cumulative dissolved-solids load was 11,600 tons. Discharge and dissolved-solids concentrations from samples collected during the synoptic sampling events were highly variable among most sites during most synoptic sampling events and also highly variable at most sites among different sampling events. The two sites upstream from the tributary input from Threemile Creek had lower dissolved-solids concentrations than sites including and downstream from the tributary. Sites including and downstream from the tributary had similar values and variability of dissolved-solids loads, with the exception of the farthest downstream site at the Blacks Fork above Smiths Fork, near Lyman, Wyo., streamgage (09219200) that tended to have larger dissolved-solids loads and higher variability among synoptic sampling events.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2021

A machine learning approach to modeling streamflow with sparse data in ungaged watersheds on the Wyoming Range, Wyoming, 2012–17

Scant availability of streamflow data can impede the utility of streamflow as a variable in ecological models of aquatic and terrestrial species, especially when studying small streams in watersheds that lack streamgages. Streamflow data at fine resolution and broad extent were needed by collaborators for ecological research on small streams in several ungaged watersheds of southwestern Wyoming, where streamflow data are sparse. To improve the utility of sparse streamflow data to ecological research in ungaged watersheds, we developed a machine learning approach in R for modeling spatially and temporally continuous monthly streamflow from 2012 through 2017 in three semiarid montane-steppe watersheds (with drainage areas of 26–55 square miles and mean elevations of 8,031–8,455 feet) on the Wyoming Range in the upper Green River Basin. A machine learning streamflow (MLFLOW) model was calibrated and validated with 971 discrete streamflow observations and 24 static and dynamic predictor variables derived from geospatial and time series data on climatic, physiographic, and anthropogenic characteristics affecting streamflow. The predictor variables were temporally and spatially conditioned to amplify the relation of predictor variables to monthly streamflow. The MLFLOW model had satisfactory agreement between observed and predicted streamflow (coefficient of determination [ R 2 ]=0.80, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE]=0.79, NSE with log-transformed data [logNSE]=0.82, and percent bias [PBIAS]=0.7 percent). NSE and logNSE indicated the MLFLOW model performed equally well for high and low flows, and PBIAS indicated the MLFLOW model did not overpredict or underpredict monthly streamflow. Streamflow predictions seemed to well represent the annual hydrograph within the study area during the study period. The most important variables (statistically important in the MLFLOW model) for explaining monthly streamflow were temporally and spatially conditioned dynamic climatic variables, mostly precipitation and snow water equivalent. Importance of the static and dynamic variables did not differ substantially among the three watersheds but differed considerably among the 6 years. Monthly streamflow increased with increasing precipitation, snow water equivalent, and drainage area but decreased with increasing forest cover, elevation, evapotranspiration, and temperature. The MLFLOW model was most sensitive to selection of dynamic climatic variables. Unconditioned dynamic climatic variables alone explained 54 percent of the variance ( R 2 =0.54) in monthly streamflow, whereas adding static physiographic and anthropogenic variables only explained 12 percent more of the variance ( R 2 =0.66). Also, spatial conditioning of all variables together with temporal conditioning of dynamic variables increased the variance explained in the MLFLOW model by another 14 percent ( R 2 =0.80). The MLFLOW model also had greater sensitivity to temporal than to spatial differences in the data. For the MLFLOW model trained with observations from all watersheds and years or for models trained with observations from all except one watershed or 1 year left out sequentially, performance was better in testing on observations from each watershed than from each year separately. Also, performance was better for models fitted to fewer sites than to fewer months of observations. The greatest utility of the modeling approach is the ease of use and the speed of processing input data, running the model, and interpreting the model output, whereas the greatest limitation is the need for spatially and temporally representative streamflow observations to drive the model. Although familiarity with R is necessary, only a working knowledge of hydrology (for selecting appropriate predictor variables and evaluating the quality of streamflow observations) and a rudimentary understanding of machine learning models are needed. Therefore, this modeling approach is practicable for other scientists who work with water but who are not hydrologists.

Wyoming↗

USGS2021

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2018 annual report

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) was established in 2007 as a collaborative interagency partnership to develop and implement science-based conservation actions. During the past 11 years, partners from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), State and Federal land management agencies, universities, and the public have collaborated to implement a long-term (more than 10 years) science-based program that assesses and enhances the quality and quantity of wildlife habitats in the southwest Wyoming region while facilitating responsible development. The USGS WLCI Science Team completes scientific research and develops tools that inform and support WLCI partner planning, decision making, and on-the-ground management actions. In fiscal year 2018, the USGS initiated 3 new projects and continued efforts on 21 ongoing science and web-development projects. The first new project was initiated to support Secretarial Order 3362 which calls on the USGS to assist Western States in mapping big-game migration corridors and developing new mapping tools. During 2018, the USGS hosted a workshop in Laramie, Wyoming, which included more than 70 State and Federal wildlife experts from Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Wyoming. Most of the mapping and migration tool curricula used in the workshop were derived from prior WLCI studies and mapping efforts of big-game migration movement in habitats undergoing large-scale energy development. The second new project was in response for WLCI partners to better understand sedimentation and hydrogeomorphic processes in a cold-desert headwater and the third new project was designed to improve our approach for people to access, manage, and analyze WLCI data and WLCI resource information. The USGS published 18 products (including peer-reviewed journal articles, USGS series publications, and data releases) and provided more than a dozen professional oral and poster presentations at scientific meetings and numerous informal presentations to WLCI partners at meetings and workshops. This report summarizes the objectives and status of each project and highlights the USGS 2018 accomplishments and products.

Wyoming↗

USGS2020

Discharge and dissolved-solids characteristics and trends of Snake River above Jackson Lake at Flagg Ranch, Wyoming, 1986–2018

The headwaters of the Snake River are in the mountains of northwestern Wyoming. Maintaining the recognized high quality of water in Grand Teton National Park is a National Park Service (NPS) priority. To characterize and understand the water resources of Grand Teton National Park, the NPS established a monitoring program to monitor the quality of area surface waters. Beginning in 2006, water was sampled by the NPS and analyzed for a range of chemical species at the Snake River above Jackson Lake at Flagg Ranch streamgage 13010065 (hereafter referred to as “Snake River at Flagg Ranch”), a site where the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) previously sampled and analyzed water from 1986 through 2004. The USGS, in cooperation with the NPS, evaluated water-quality data collected by both entities to determine if discharge and total dissolved solids (referred to as dissolved solids) have changed in the Snake River at the Flagg Ranch. To understand potential changes with time in dissolved solids, discharge was analyzed between January 1986 and December 2018, which corresponds with the time period when water-quality data were collected. Mean annual discharge varied during this time, with high, low, mean, and median flows generally increasing from 1986 through 1998, decreasing through 2005, and then generally increasing through 2018. Combining water-quality data collected by the USGS and NPS provides a longer, more complete dataset for analyses. During the period of time when NPS was the sampling agency, specific conductance data were collected, but dissolved-solids data were not. The specific conductance data from both agencies were evaluated to determine if combining the data was justified. The interquartile ranges of data collected by both agencies are similar, and rapid, large changes in values during the period of transition between USGS and NPS sampling do not occur. The USGS and NPS datasets are not statistically different in the spring, summer, or fall, but are statistically different in the winter. The winter differences could be a function of the lack of wintertime NPS sampling, which excludes higher-concentration, lower-discharge data or a function of changes in the actual concentration in the stream. Although there is some difference in the winter datasets, the similarity in sampling methods and general overall data characteristics justifies combining the data for trend analyses. Because the dissolved-solids parameter is useful for managers, it is often calculated from specific conductance using a linear regression model when dissolved-solids data are absent. For this study, creating a modeled dataset of dissolved solids for the NPS data collection period of time provided a longer, more complete dataset of dissolved-solids concentrations. The concentrations of dissolved solids over time are identified by season and indicate that samples collected in the fall and winter have higher concentrations than samples collected in spring and summer. Specifically, the mean dissolved-solids concentrations in fall and winter are around 188 milligrams per liter (mg/L), whereas the mean concentrations are around 130 mg/L in spring and summer. This difference is generally attributed to the dilution of spring and summer samples by snowmelt generated runoff during the high-flow period of the year. Trend analyses of dissolved-solids concentrations and loads indicate that an upward trend in concentration from 1986 to 2018 is likely, and a downward trend in load is highly likely. Comparing 1986 to 2018, dissolved-solids concentration is estimated to have increased by 2.25 mg/L (1.4 percent). During that same period, the dissolved-solids load is estimated to have decreased 11.8 million kilograms per year (12-percent decrease). This decrease is consistent with the estimated decrease in annual mean of daily mean discharge. Because 10 percent of the total change in dissolved-solids load is related to a change in the concentration-discharge relationship and 2 percent is related to changes in discharge, the decreased load is related less to changes in discharge and more to landscape scale processes that are affecting the concentration-discharge relationship. As noted above, the data collected by the USGS and NPS are generally comparable with regards to sampling and analytical methods, and data collected by both agencies were used as one dataset for trend analyses. The current NPS sampling schedule, however, is creating a dataset biased towards lower concentration dissolved-solids data, which occurs during higher summer flows, by only sampling during April through November. From 1986 to 2018, the percentage of NPS samples is small enough that the effect on trends is expected to be minimal. Because of the importance of low flow (winter season) data, it is likely that an April through November sampling regime may affect the ability to detect trends or determine seasonality in the future. Collection of winter data in particular is important based on the findings that the changes in the modeled concentration-discharge relationship over time have been most pronounced during the winter (represented by February) months.

Wyoming↗

USGS2019

Streamflow gains and losses in New Fork and Green Rivers, upstream from Fontenelle Reservoir, Wyoming, October 2015

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative is a program created to implement a long-term, science-based program of assessing natural resources while facilitating responsible energy and other development and does studies in much of southwestern Wyoming, including all or parts of Lincoln, Sublette, Fremont, Sweetwater, and Carbon Counties. A synoptic study was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of ongoing contributions to the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative to better understand the streamflow dynamics in the New Fork and Green Rivers in an area with historical, current, and future energy development. Streamflow measurements were collected October 19–22, 2015, at 19 sites on the New Fork and Green Rivers in Wyoming to determine changes in streamflow and, where applicable, describe the inflow and outflow of groundwater. Streamflow in the New Fork River generally increased from 50 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) at the most upstream site near Pinedale, Wyoming, to 350 ft 3 /s at the mouth of the river. Streamflow in the Green River generally increased downstream from 250 ft 3 /s at the most upstream site at Warren Bridge to around 800 ft 3 /s at the most downstream site near La Barge, Wyo., upstream from Fontenelle Reservoir. Estimated streamflow gains and losses were calculated for five reaches on the New Fork River. Four of the five reaches on the New Fork River had a change greater than the associated measurement error and were gaining reaches; the reach with the largest gain was the most upstream reach. One reach, the most downstream reach, had a calculated change in streamflow less than the associated measurement error. Estimated streamflow gains and losses were calculated for four reaches on the Green River. One reach was determined to be a gaining reach, one was a losing reach, and two reaches had changes less than the associated measurement error. Comparing the annual streamflow hydrographs for three long-term streamgages likely showed the effects of applying irrigation water to the upstream areas of land draining to the Green and New Fork Rivers. Streamflows in the New Fork River near Big Piney and the Green River near La Barge, Wyo., are sustained later in the season compared to the upstream site of Green River at Warren Bridge, which has few diversions and minimal irrigation.

Wyoming↗

USGS2019

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2017 annual report

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) was established in 2008 to address the scientific and conservation questions associated with land use changes because of energy development and other factors in southwest Wyoming. Over the past decade, partners from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), State and Federal land management agencies, universities, and the public have collaborated to implement a long-term (defined here as more than 10 years), science-based program that assesses and enhances the quality and quantity of wildlife habitats in this region while facilitating responsible development. The USGS Science Team completes scientific research and develops tools that inform and support WLCI partner planning, decision making, and on-the-ground management actions. In fiscal year 2017, USGS published 18 products (including peer-reviewed journal articles, USGS series publications, and data releases), prepared an additional 7 products for publication, and presented 14 talks or posters at professional scientific meetings in addition to numerous informal presentations to WLCI partners at meetings and workshops. In this report, we summarize the science themes that describe USGS science for the WLCI and highlight work completed in fiscal year 2017 for each science theme. We also provide information on how USGS science is being used by land managers to better achieve habitat conservation objectives.

Wyoming↗

USGS2018

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2016 annual report

This is the ninth annual report highlighting U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science and decision-support activities conducted for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI). The activities address specific management needs identified by WLCI partner agencies. In fiscal year (FY) 2016, there were 26 active USGS WLCI science-based projects. Of these 26 projects, one project was new for FY2016, and three were completed by the end of the fiscal year (though final products were still in preparation or review). USGS WLCI projects were grouped under five categories: (1) Baseline Synthesis, (2) Long-Term Monitoring, (3) Effectiveness Monitoring, (4) Mechanistic Studies of Wildlife, and (5) Data and Information Management. Each of these topic areas is designed to address WLCI management needs: identifying key drivers of change, identifying the condition and distribution of key wildlife species and habitats and of species’ habitat requirements, development of an integrated inventory and monitoring strategy, use of emerging technologies and development and testing of innovative methods for maximizing the efficiency and efficacy of monitoring efforts, evaluating the effectiveness of habitat treatment projects, evaluating the responses of wildlife to development, and developing a data clearinghouse and information management framework to support and provide access to results of most USGS WLCI projects. In FY2016, we assisted with updating the WLCI Conservation Action Plan and associated databases as part of the Comprehensive Assessment, and we also assisted with the Bureau of Land Management 2015 WLCI annual report. By the end of FY2016, we completed or had nearly completed assessments of WLCI energy and mineral resources and had submitted a manuscript on modeled effects of oil and gas development on wildlife to a peer-reviewed journal. We also initiated a study on the effects of wind energy on wildlife in the WLCI region. A USGS circular on WLCI long-term monitoring was in review at the end of the fiscal year, and seven projects monitoring water and vegetation (including changes in sagebrush cover and patterns of sagebrush mortality) continued through the year. USGS scientists continued many projects in FY2016 that evaluate the effectiveness of habitat conservation actions (including sagebrush, cheatgrass, and aspen habitat treatments) and provide tools in support of mechanistic studies of wildlife. In FY2016, USGS scientists, along with university and State partners, continued work on five focal wildlife species/communities (pygmy rabbits [ Brachylagus idahoensis ], greater sage grouse , mule deer, sagebrush songbirds, and native fish). In FY2016, the USGS Information Management Team presented information to WLCI scientists on how USGS tools and resources can be used to fulfill the requirements of new USGS policies regarding data release, data management, and data visualization.

Wyoming↗

USGS2016

Estimated nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to the Fish Creek watershed, Teton County, Wyoming, 2009–15

Nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, are essential for plant and animal growth and nourishment, but the overabundance of bioavailable nitrogen and phosphorus in water can cause adverse health and ecological effects. It is generally accepted that increased primary production of surface-water bodies because of high inputs of nutrients is now the most important polluting effect in surface water in the developed world.

Teton County↗

USGS2016

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2015 annual report

This is the eighth annual report highlighting U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science and decision-support activities conducted for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI). The activities address specific management needs identified by WLCI partner agencies. In 2015, USGS scientists continued 24 WLCI projects in 5 categories: (1) acquiring and analyzing resource-condition data to form a foundation for understanding and monitoring landscape conditions and projecting changes; (2) using new technologies to improve the scope and accuracy of landscape-scale monitoring and assessments, and applying them to monitor indicators of ecosystem conditions and the effectiveness of on-the-ground habitat projects; (3) conducting research to elucidate the mechanisms that drive wildlife and habitat responses to changing land uses; (4) managing and making accessible the large number of databases, maps, and other products being developed; and (5) coordinating efforts among WLCI partners, helping them to use USGS-developed decision-support tools, and integrating WLCI outcomes with future habitat enhancement and research projects. Of the 24 projects, 21 were ongoing, including those that entered new phases or more in-depth lines of inquiry, 2 were new, and 1 was completed. A highlight of 2015 was the WLCI science conference sponsored by the USGS, Bureau of Land Management, and National Park Service in coordination with the Wyoming chapter of The Wildlife Society. Of 260 participants, 41 were USGS professionals representing 13 USGS science centers, field offices, and Cooperative Wildlife Research Units. Major themes of USGS presentations included using new technologies for developing more efficient research protocols for modeling and monitoring natural resources, researching effects of energy development and other land uses on wildlife species and habitats of concern, and modeling species distributions, population trends, habitat use, and effects of land-use changes. There was also a special session on the effectiveness of Wyoming’s Sage-Grouse Executive Order. Combined, USGS presentations provided WLCI partners with a wealth of information and conservation tools. The project completed in 2015 yielded an index of important agricultural lands in the WLCI region. The index improves upon existing measures of agricultural productivity and provides planners and managers with additional values to consider when making decisions about land use and conservation actions. The two new projects include an analysis of satellite imagery to quantify sagebrush productivity and mortality, and an evaluation of how groundwater and small streams interact in the upper Green River Basin. Initiated in response to concern among WLCI partners that large areas of sagebrush appear to have died recently, the sagebrush study objectives are to assess effects of these mortality events on overall sagebrush ecosystem productivity, evaluate the feasibility of using satellite imagery to detect patterns in sagebrush mortality over time, and identify factors driving these mortality events. The groundwater-streamflow interaction study is being conducted by hydrologists and fish ecologists to better understand how groundwater-streamflow interactions are affected by energy-resource development and how native fish communities are affected by these factors. Expected outcomes of both new projects will provide WLCI partners with additional information and decision-support tools. Highlights of ongoing science foundation activities included simulations of nine alternative build-out scenarios for oil and gas development and an associated online fact sheet that explains how the simulations were conducted, with an applied example for the Atlantic Rim. Also completed in 2015 was an update of the USGS online inventory of mineral resources data, and publication of a USGS uranium resource survey for the WLCI region. Combined, the outcomes of this work provide decisionmakers and managers with important baseline information for existing and (or) future planning and monitoring efforts. Terrestrial monitoring activities in 2015 emphasized the use of satellite data in combination with other technologies and field data to monitor, assess, and (or) forecast distribution patterns and (or) trends in sagebrush ecosystems, seasonal and migration stopover habitats used by mule deer and elk, and semi-arid aspen woodlands. Several professional papers detailing new monitoring models and results have been published. Combined, this and related work will help managers understand distribution patterns and trends among priority habitats, identify areas in need of restoration or conservation, and monitor the effectiveness of habitat-management actions. Aquatic monitoring activities entailed not only the new groundwater-streamflow interaction study already mentioned, but also continued monitoring with streamgages paired with nearby wells in the Green River Basin to assess groundwater effects on streamflow and surface water temperatures. A map that portrays groundwater levels and general direction of flow in the Green River Basin was published as well . Overall, outcomes of USGS hydrological research and monitoring will inform WLCI partners about water resources in the WLCI region and help to explain fish-community responses to energy-resource development. In 2015, USGS terrestrial wildlife ecologists continued to make crucial strides towards better understanding wildlife species responses to energy-resource development and other land-use changes. This body of research includes six taxa that require or heavily depend on sagebrush habitats: sage-grouse, pygmy rabbits, 3 songbird species, and mule deer. Native fish communities are also being evaluated. Approaches include modeling and mapping wildlife species distributions, abundances, and trends; using satellite and other technologies to track wildlife seasonal movements; conducting successive phases of research that build on the knowledge gained through prior phases to reveal the specific factors or thresholds that drive population- or individual-level responses to changes; and conducting population viability analyses. Additionally, wildlife habitat association models for pygmy rabbit and sage-grouse were combined with the oil and gas build-out scenarios to project species responses to alternative energy development scenarios. Outcomes of the wildlife response research are helping decisionmakers and managers identify specific factors that contribute to species population trends, the potential for spatial overlap between important wildlife habitats and proposed energy-resource development, locations of priority habitats for restoration and conservation, and more. Data and WLCI Web site management highlights of 2015 included not only ongoing software upgrades, but also an update of the datasets displayed in two of the online products developed for the WLCI effort: (1) a map of 15,532 oil and natural gas well pad scars and other features associated with oil and gas extraction, and (2) a map of oil and gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar energy production, both for southwestern Wyoming. In addition, a map viewer was developed for a previously published map of coal and wind production in relation to sage-grouse distribution and core management areas in southwestern Wyoming. Combined, these maps place valuable decision-support tools in the hands of WLCI partners. The USGS coordination efforts on behalf of the WLCI in 2015 included significant work on planning and executing the WLCI science conference. They also included ongoing efforts to support Local Project Development Teams and the WLCI Coordination Team (CT) with developing conservation priorities and strategies, identifying priority areas for future conservation actions, supporting the evaluation and ranking of conservation projects, and evaluating the ways in which proposed habitat projects relate to WLCI priorities. In 2015, the USGS also assisted the WLCI CT with updating the WLCI Conservation Action Plan.

Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Hydrogeology, groundwater levels, and generalized potentiometric-surface map of the Green River Basin lower Tertiary aquifer system, 2010–14, in the northern Green River structural basin

In cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, groundwater levels in wells located in the northern Green River Basin in Wyoming, an area of ongoing energy development, were measured by the U.S. Geological Survey from 2010 to 2014. The wells were completed in the uppermost aquifers of the Green River Basin lower Tertiary aquifer system, which is a complex regional aquifer system that provides water to most wells in the area. Except for near perennial streams, groundwater-level altitudes in most aquifers generally decreased with increasing depth, indicating a general downward potential for groundwater movement in the study area. Drilled depth of the wells was observed as a useful indicator of depth to groundwater such that deeper wells typically had a greater depth to groundwater. Comparison of a subset of wells included in this study that had historical groundwater levels that were measured during the 1960s and 1970s and again between 2012 and 2014 indicated that, overall, most of the wells showed a net decline in groundwater levels. The groundwater-level measurements were used to construct a generalized potentiometric-surface map of the Green River Basin lower Tertiary aquifer system. Groundwater-level altitudes measured in nonflowing and flowing wells used to construct the potentiometric-surface map ranged from 6,451 to 7,307 feet (excluding four unmeasured flowing wells used for contour construction purposes). The potentiometric-surface map indicates that groundwater in the study area generally moves from north to south, but this pattern of flow is altered locally by groundwater divides, groundwater discharge to the Green River, and possibly to a tributary river (Big Sandy River) and two reservoirs (Fontenelle and Big Sandy Reservoirs).

Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Effects of water-resource development on Yellowstone River streamflow, 1928-2002

Major floods in 1996 and 1997 intensified public concern about the effects of human activities on the Yellowstone River in Montana. In 1999, the Yellowstone River Conservation District Council, whose members are primarily representatives from the conservation districts bordering the main stem of the Yellowstone River, was formed to promote wise use and conservation of the Yellowstone River’s natural resources. The Yellowstone River Conservation District Council is working with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to understand the cumulative hydrologic effects of water-resource development in the Yellowstone River Basin. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Yellowstone River Conservation District Council, and U.S. Geological Survey began cooperatively studying the Yellowstone River in 2010, publishing four reports describing streamflow information for selected sites in the Yellowstone River Basin, 1928–2002. Detailed information about the methods used, as well as summary streamflow statistics, are available in the four reports. The purpose of this fact sheet is to highlight findings from the published reports and describe the effects of water use and structures, primarily dams, on the Yellowstone River streamflow.

Montana↗

USGS2015

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2014 annual report

This is the seventh report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual activities conducted by the USGS for addressing specific management needs identified by WLCI partners. In FY2014, there were 26 projects, including a new one that was completed, two others that were also completed, and several that entered new phases or directions. The 26 projects fall into several categories: (1) synthesizing and analyzing existing data to identify current conditions on the landscape and using the data to develop models for projecting past and future landscape conditions; (2) monitoring indicators of ecosystem conditions and the effectiveness of on-the-ground habitat projects; (3) conducting research to elucidate the mechanisms underlying wildlife and habitat responses to changing land uses; (4) managing and making accessible the large number of databases, maps, and other products being developed; and (5) coordinating efforts among WLCI partners, helping them use USGS-developed decision-support tools, and integrating WLCI outcomes with future habitat enhancement and research projects. The new (completed) project was the development and publication of a public outreach piece for visitors of Fossil Butte National Monument. The final product was a USGS Fact Sheet that capitalized on previously collected elk-monitoring data to interpret the ecology of the Monument’s elk population and the importance of the Monument’s habitats to this highly visible wildlife species. One of the completed projects entailed developing and evaluating a synthetic approach to high-resolution satellite imagery for use in effectiveness monitoring, which culminated in a journal article. The other completed project was a coalescing of two similar tasks under data and information management that pertain to Web application development and the development of outreach and graphic products into a single integrated project that focuses on developing and maintaining/upgrading Web applications and other tools for visualizing, mapping, and using geospatial data. Major accomplishments for FY2014 included several publications, including Part B of an energy resources map that (with Part A) depicts coal, wind, oil, gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar energy production in the WLCI region. Two published works associated with sage-grouse included a Wildlife Monograph on prioritizing species’ habitats across large landscapes, multiple seasons, and novel areas (using sage-grouse in Wyoming as an example), and a USGS Data Series report that includes both the data used in the habitat-prioritization models and the habitat prioritization models developed for sage-grouse. Our Science Team also published a framework for conducting large, collaborative projects that rely on geospatial data, and a paper that describes the efficacy of fusing satellite data collected at various resolutions for measuring and monitoring vegetation changes. These products are all invaluable tools for maximizing the efficiency and effectiveness of managing species of concern, conducting future landscape-scale assessments, and monitoring status and trends of landscape conditions. Other highlights of FY2014 included a renewed effort to gather and analyze wildlife and habitat status and trend data for the WLCI Interagency Monitoring Database (IAMD) to assess long-term trends and cumulative effects associated with land-use and climate changes. Water-monitoring efforts included drilling four new groundwater-monitoring wells in the Green and New Fork River basins near the proposed Normally Pressured Lance Formation energy development, and continued data collection at established water-monitoring sites. Three additional wells were sampled as part of the Wyoming Groundwater Monitoring Network, bringing the total to 19 Network wells sampled in the WLCI region since 2010. Combined, these water-monitoring efforts can help to identify potential changes in water quality or levels that may result from land-use changes. Major terrestrial monitoring accomplishments included processing satellite imagery from 1985−2010 to develop a historical perspective of long-term vegetation changes, which can serve as a basis for monitoring current and future trends in sagebrush steppe. Such data are crucial tools for agencies tasked with sage-grouse management and conservation. The USGS WLCI Science Team also continued monitoring and testing methods for evaluating WLCI habitat treatments designed to promote aspen regeneration and enhance sage-grouse habitat, and to assess how those treatments influence invasive species distributions and ungulate herbivory. Highlights included analyzing field data collected to elucidate the relationships between sage-grouse habitat use and the proximity of energy infrastructure, and using new instruments to measure productivity responses of aspen woodlands to various factors. Numerous FY2014 accomplishments specifically addressed agency needs to manage and conserve Wyoming’s wildlife species of concern. A pygmy rabbit habitat model and Wyoming distribution map were completed to identify factors associated with rabbit habitat occupancy. Previous work on sage-grouse population dynamics was expanded to better understand the factors that drive long-term viability of sage-grouse populations and to develop a tool that helps to identify key factors limiting sage-grouse persistence in Wyoming. Field work and data analyses continued for elucidating the relationships between sagebrush songbird abundance and productivity, the intensity of energy development, and community dynamics of nest predators. For the mule deer study, mixed mountain shrublands important to migrating and wintering mule deer were mapped and delivered to WLCI partners. Additionally, the relationships between energy development and crucial winter habitat for mule deer were evaluated, and a new phase of work was implemented to better understand relationships between plant phenology and mule deer migration movements. Finally, initial analyses of data collected to evaluate fish-community composition in relation to habitat quality indicate that water quality, as measured by concentrations of hydrocarbons, water temperature, and others parameters, has been diminished in subwatersheds with higher levels of energy development. Overall, the outcomes and products of these wildlife studies contribute significantly to the information and tools needed for addressing effects of land-use changes on Wyoming’s species of concern. Finally, capabilities of the WLCI Web site and the USGS ScienceBase infrastructure were maintained and upgraded to help ensure access to and efficient use of all the WLCI data, products, assessment tools, and outreach materials that have been developed. Of particular note is the completion of three Web applications developed for mapping (1) the 1900−2008 progression of oil and gas development;(2) the predicted distributions of Wyoming’s Species of Greatest Conservation Need; and (3) the locations of coal and wind energy production, sage-grouse distribution and core management areas, and alternative routes for transmission lines within the WLCI region. Collectively, these applications tools provide WLCI planners and managers with powerful tools for better understanding the distributions of wildlife species and potential alternatives for energy development.

Wyoming↗