Geology topics

Chase M. Freeman

Publications and source records attributed to Chase M. Freeman.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Surveying waterfowl broods in wetlands using aerial drones

Effective waterfowl management relies on the collection of relevant demographic data to inform land management decisions; however, some types of data are difficult to obtain. For waterfowl, brood surveys are difficult to conduct because wetland habitats often obscure ducklings from being visually assessed. Here, we used Unoccupied Aerial Systems (UAS) to assess what wetland habitat characteristics influenced brood abundance in Suisun Marsh, California, USA. Using a thermal imaging camera, we surveyed 17 wetland units encompassing 332 ha of flooded area on seven waterfowl hunting clubs during the waterfowl breeding season. Additionally, using a combination of multispectral imagery collected from the UAS flights and LiDAR data from the previous year, we mapped habitat composition within each unit to relate to brood observation counts. From June 3-7, 2019, we identified 113 individual broods comprised of 827 ducklings. We found a positive relationship between the number of broods observed and the proportion of the unit that was flooded. We also found a positive relationship between the number of broods observed and the area of effective habitat, a metric of flooded habitat within a specific distance of flooded vegetation. Brood surveys using UAS could complement the traditional Breeding Population Survey and provide local managers with fine-scale and timely information regarding shifts in brood abundance in the region.

California↗

USGS2023

Understanding marsh elevation and accretion processes and vulnerability to rising sea levels across climatic and geomorphic gradients in California, USA

Tidal marshes build elevations by below- and aboveground organic and mineral soil processes. Marsh elevation and accretion data can be used to determine if marshes are keeping pace with sea-level rise. Using a network of 54 deep rod surface elevation tables with paired feldspar marker horizon plots, we tracked elevation and accretion trends across 16 marshes in California, USA. All sites had overall positive gains across years that included severe drought conditions and extreme rain events. Marsh elevation relative to tidal datum ( z *) was the key predictor for elevation and accretion rates, with higher change rates at lower z * sites. Marsh sites are clustered into three regional groups (Northern California, San Francisco Bay area, and Southern California), primarily defined by maximum temperature and annual rainfall differences. Elevation, accretion, and shallow subsidence rates were not significantly different between clusters, but their explanatory variables did vary. High-temperature days were a key predictor for elevation, accretion, and shallow subsidence rates in the state-wide analysis and San Francisco Bay regional analysis. The largest elevation gains were observed in the San Francisco Bay-Delta and some of the smallest in Humboldt Bay, with Morro Bay having the lowest accretion rate overall. Central and Southern California marshes were keeping pace or out-pacing sea-level rise, while none of the Humboldt Bay marshes were keeping pace. Marsh surface elevation data can inform management intervention and be a leading indicator for sea-level rise vulnerability. Long-term monitoring across geomorphic settings can help inform management and anticipate marsh change.

California↗

USGS2022

A summary of water-quality and salt marsh monitoring, Humboldt Bay, California

This report summarizes data-collection activities associated with the U.S. Geological Survey Humboldt Bay Water-Quality and Salt Marsh Monitoring Project. This work was undertaken to gain a comprehensive understanding of water-quality conditions, salt marsh accretion processes, marsh-edge erosion, and soil-carbon storage in Humboldt Bay, California. Multiparameter sondes recorded water temperature, specific conductance, and turbidity at a 15-minute timestep at two U.S. Geological Survey water-quality stations: (1) Mad River Slough near Arcata, California (U.S. Geological Survey station 405219124085601) and (2) Hookton Slough near Loleta, California (U.S. Geological Survey station 404038124131801). At each station, discrete water samples were collected to develop surrogate regression models that were used to compute a continuous time series of suspended-sediment concentration from continuously measured turbidity. Data loggers recorded water depth at a 6-minute timestep in the primary tidal channels (Mad River Slough and Hookton Slough) in two adjacent marshes (Mad River marsh and Hookton marsh). The marsh monitoring network included five study marshes. Three marshes (Mad River, Manila, and Jacoby) are in the northern embayment of Humboldt Bay and two marshes (White and Hookton) are in the southern embayment. Surface deposition and elevation change were measured using deep rod surface elevation tables and feldspar marker horizons. Sediment characteristics and soil-carbon storage were measured using a total of 10 shallow cores, distributed across 5 study marshes, collected using an Eijkelkamp peat sampler. Rates of marsh edge erosion (2010–19) were quantified in four marshes (Mad River, Manila, Jacoby, and White) by estimating changes in the areal extent of the vegetated marsh plain using repeat aerial imagery and light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-derived elevation data. During the monitoring period (2016–19), the mean suspended-sediment concentration computed for Hookton Slough (50±20 milligrams per liter [mg/L]) was higher than Mad River Slough (18±7 mg/L). Uncertainty in mean suspended-sediment concentration values is reported using a 90-percent confidence interval. Across the five study marshes, elevation change (+1.8±0.6 millimeters per year [mm/yr]) and surface deposition (+2.5±0.5 mm/yr) were lower than published values of local sea-level rise (4.9±0.8 mm/yr), and mean carbon density was 0.029±0.005 grams of carbon per cubic centimeter. From 2010 to 2019, marsh edge erosion and soil carbon loss were greatest in low-elevation marshes with the marsh edge characterized by a gentle transition from mudflat to vegetated marsh (herein, ramped edge morphology) and larger wind-wave exposure. Jacoby Creek marsh experienced the greatest edge erosion. In total, marsh edge erosion was responsible for 62.3 metric tons of estuarine soil carbon storage loss across four study marshes. Salt marshes are an important component of coastal carbon, which is frequently referred to as “blue carbon.” The monitoring data presented in this report provide fundamental information needed to manage blue carbon stocks, assess marsh vulnerability, inform sea-level rise adaptation planning, and build coastal resiliency to climate change.

California↗

USGS2022

Assessing small-mammal trapping design using spatially explicit capture recapture (SECR) modeling on long-term monitoring data

Few studies have evaluated the optimal sampling design for tracking small mammal population trends, especially for rare or difficult to detect species. Spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models present an advancement over non-spatial models by accounting for individual movement when estimating density. The salt marsh harvest mouse (SMHM; Reithrodontomys raviventris ) is a federal and California state listed endangered species endemic to the San Francisco Bay-Delta estuary, California, USA; where a population in a subembayment has been continually monitored over an 18-year period using mark-recapture methods. We analyzed capture data within a SECR modeling framework that allowed us to account for differences in detection and movement between sexes. We compared the full dataset to subsampling scenarios to evaluate how the grid size (area) of the trap design, trap density (spacing), and number of consecutive trapping occasions (duration) influenced density estimates. To validate the subsampling methods, we ran Monte Carlo simulations based on the true parameter estimates for each specific year. We found that reducing the area of the trapping design by more than 36% resulted in the inability of the SECR model to replicate density estimates within the SE of the original density estimates. However, when trapping occasions were reduced from 4 to 3-nights the density estimates were indistinguishable from the full dataset. Furthermore, reducing trap density by 50% also resulted in density estimates comparable to the full dataset and was a substantially better model than reducing the trap area by 50%. Overall, our results indicated that moderate reductions in the number of trapping occasions or trap density could yield similar density estimates when using a SECR approach. This approach allows the optimization of field trapping efforts and designs by reducing field efforts while maintaining the same population estimate compared to the full dataset. Using a SECR approach may help other wildlife programs identify sampling efficiencies without sacrificing data integrity for long term monitoring of population densities.

California↗

USGS2022

Atmospheric river storm flooding influences tidal marsh elevation building processes

Disturbances are a key component of ecological processes in coastal ecosystems. Investigating factors that affect tidal marsh accretion and elevation change is important, largely due to accelerating sea-level rise and the ecological and economic value of wetlands. Sediment accumulation rates, elevation change, and flooding were examined at five marshes along a riverine-tidal gradient in the northern San Francisco Bay-Delta, California, USA during an Atmospheric River storm event in 2017 using Surface Elevation Tables (SETs), feldspar marker horizons (MH), and continuous water-level sensors. Our results showed that localized marsh flooding increased during the storm event, but not evenly across sites. Marsh surface elevation increased the most at the tidal freshwater marsh site in response to the storms, with an average surface elevation gain of 45.6 ± 13.1 mm, and the least at a tidal saline marsh with an average surface elevation gain of 4.0 ± 1.2 mm. A marsh located on the large embayment did not exhibit an immediate response to the storm but had a surface elevation gain of 21.5 ± 13.7 mm 6 months after the storm. During the storm period, marsh distance to the bay was the strongest predictor of elevation change, followed by SET-MH elevations. Conversely, during non-storm periods, SET-MH elevation was a relatively strong predictor of elevation change. Atmospheric Rivers appear to be a major factor affecting short-term spatial and temporal variability in flooding and sedimentation rates in tidal marsh systems. Incorporating information about storms into monitoring could increase our understanding of how episodic storms can impact marshes.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

USGS2021

Climate change vulnerability assessment for the California coastal national monument—Trinidad and Point Arena-Stornetta units

Executive Summary The California Coastal National Monument protects islets, reefs, and rock outcropping habitats in six onshore units, including the Trinidad and Point Arena-Stornetta Units. The California Coastal National Monument provides crucial habitat for resident and migratory species of seabirds, marine mammals, and invertebrates, which includes several federally listed threatened and endangered species. Also, the California Coastal National Monument encompasses important tribal, cultural, and historical sites along the coastline of California. We used three approaches to assess the climate change vulnerability of the Trinidad and Point Arena-Stornetta Units: (1) a qualitative approach using peer-reviewed literature and previous work done in the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the North-central California Coast and Ocean (Hutto and others, 2015), (2) interactive workshops with local stakeholders to identify specific resources, and (3) spatial analysis to estimate sea-level rise vulnerability for the rocky shoreline and key resources within the units. Information from stakeholder workshops held (in 2017) in the cities of Point Arena and Trinidad identified climate change impacts as an important management concern for the resilience, health, and ecosystem services of the California Coastal National Monument units. Impacts that were identified included sea-level rise, changes in precipitation and fog, warming oceans, and loss of species (birds, fisheries, marine mammals). Boat surveys were done for each unit to estimate the number of rocky features and the biota using the rocks. At the Trinidad Unit, 138 rocks were surveyed and 17 different wildlife species were observed, whereas at the Point Arena-Stornetta Unit, 40 rocks were surveyed and 10 different wildlife species were observed. Individual rocky features surveyed within the units were then ranked on sea-level rise exposure and vulnerability scales with 1 being the least vulnerable/exposed and 5 the most. Forty-nine and fifty-eight percent of surveyed rocks had a sea-level rise exposure ranking of 4 or 5 (high) for the Trinidad Unit and Point Arena-Stornetta Units respectively. Forty-eight percent of offshore rocks had a sea-level rise vulnerability score of 3 or greater (high) for the Trinidad Unit, and forty-three percent of rocks had a vulnerability score of 3 or greater for the Point Arena-Stornetta Unit. When examining guild use of vulnerable rocks (vulnerability score greater than 3), at the Trinidad Unit alcid species (here defined as common murres and pigeon guillemots) were observed on only 28 percent of vulnerable rocks, shorebirds on 30 percent, sea lions on 40 percent, gulls on 43 percent, seabirds on 58 percent, and mammals on 75 percent, whereas at the Point Arena-Stornetta Unit alcid species were observed on 0 percent of vulnerable rocks, gulls on 33 percent, seabirds on 57 percent, and mammals on 50 percent. Sea-level rise has the potential to submerge small low-relief offshore rocks and make them uninhabitable for birds and marine mammals but could provide more intertidal and subtidal rocky habitats. We found that nearly half of the offshore rocks at both sites are vulnerable and have the potential to realize this outcome; however, the larger and tall-relief rocks at these sites are less vulnerable to sea-level rise and are expected to continue to provide habitat for avian species.

California↗

USGS2021

Intensity of grass invasion negatively correlated with population density and age structure of an endangered dune plant across its range

Invasive species are a global threat to ecosystem biodiversity and function; non-native grass invasion has been particularly problematic in sparsely vegetated ecosystems such as open dunes. Native plant population responses to invasion, however, are infrequently translated to landscape scales, limiting the effectiveness of these data for addressing conservation issues. We quantified population density, total population size, and age class distribution of the federally-endangered plant species Antioch Dunes evening primrose ( Oenothera deltoides subsp. howellii ), at sites along a non-native grass invasion gradient in California, USA. We then scaled relationships between invasion and plant density across the species’ range using spatial models and remote sensing data. Adult and juvenile O. deltoides subsp. howellii densities were more than 10 times higher in non-invaded areas (grids with 10% total plant cover) when compared to highly-invaded areas (grids with 80% total plant cover). The ratio of O. deltoides subsp. howellii juveniles to adults decreased to less than 1 at 54% total cover, highlighting sensitivity of the regeneration niche to invasion. Spatial models mapped hotspots of O. deltoides subsp. howellii abundance and population structure across the landscape at sub-meter scales. Scaling the impacts of increasing invasion on plant species of conservation concern holds promise when coupled with remote sensing approaches, especially in naturally low-cover ecosystems where readily available metrics (e.g., Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) can be used to quantify invasion. These spatial models inform how future invasive species management may influence population size and spatial distribution of species of conservation concern.

California↗

USGS2020

Habitat of the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris) in San Francisco Bay

Understanding habitat associations is vital for conservation of at‐risk marsh‐endemic wildlife species, particularly those under threat from sea level rise. We modeled environmental and habitat associations of the marsh‐endemic, Federally endangered salt marsh harvest mouse ( Reithrodontomys raviventris , RERA) and co‐occurrence with eight associated small mammal species from annual trap data, 1998–2014, in six estuarine marshes in North San Francisco Bay, California. Covariates included microhabitat metrics of elevation and vegetation species and cover; and landscape metrics of latitude–longitude, distance to anthropogenic features, and habitat patch size. The dominant cover was pickleweed ( Salicornia pacifica ) with 86% mean cover and 37 cm mean height, and bare ground with about 10% mean cover. We tested 38 variants of Bayesian network (BN) models to determine covariates that best account for presence of RERA and of all nine small mammal species. Best models had lowest complexity and highest classification accuracy. Among RERA presence models, three best BN models used covariates of latitude–longitude, distance to paved roads, and habitat patch size, with 0% error of false presence, 20% error of false nonpresence, and 20% overall error. The all‐species presence models suggested that within the pickleweed marsh environment, RERA are mostly habitat generalists. Accounting for presence of other species did not improve prediction of RERA. Habitat attributes compared between RERA and the next most frequently captured species, California vole ( Microtus californicus ), suggested substantial habitat overlap, with RERA habitat being somewhat higher in marsh elevation, greater in percent cover of the dominant plant species, closer to urban areas, further from agricultural areas, and, perhaps most significant, larger in continuous size of marsh patch. Findings will inform conservation management of the marsh environment for RERA by identifying best microhabitat elements, landscape attributes, and adverse interspecific interactions.

California↗

USGS2020

Testing the interactive effects of flooding and salinity on tidal marsh plant productivity

Tidal wetlands support plant communities that facilitate carbon storage, accrete soil, and provide habitat for terrestrial and aquatic species. Climate change is likely to alter estuaries through sea-level rise and changing precipitation patterns, although the ecological responses are uncertain. We were interested in plant responses to physiological stress induced by elevated water salinity and flooding conditions, which may be more prevalent under climate change. . We used a greenhouse experiment and factorial flooding (1, 12, 24, and 48 % time) and salinity (0, 5, 15, 30 PSU) treatments to evaluate the productivity responses of three emergent herbaceous species ( Carex lyngbyei, Triglochin maritima, and Argentina pacifica ) common to tidal marshes of the Pacific Northwest, USA. We measured weekly changes in plant height and final above and belowground biomass for all species after 10 weeks. Increased salinity reduced final above and belowground biomass significantly in all three species, with A. pacifica responding the most, followed by C. lyngbyei and T. maritima . Increased flooding also reduced total biomass in A. pacifica and T. maritima . There was a significant response in C. lyngbyei aboveground biomass and A. pacifica height to the flooding-salinity interaction. These results indicate emergent plant community composition may change in response to novel climate conditions in estuaries, driven by distinct physiological tolerances to salinity and flooding, and highlight the importance of considering multiple climate drivers when projecting ecosystem change. This may be especially true for estuaries that currently have prolonged freshwater phases like those in the Pacific Northwest.

Aquatic Botany↗

USGS2019

Understanding tidal marsh trajectories: Evaluation of multiple indicators of marsh persistence

Robust assessments of ecosystem stability are critical for informing conservation and management decisions. Tidal marsh ecosystems provide vital services, yet are globally threatened by anthropogenic alterations to physical and biological processes. A variety of monitoring and modeling approaches have been undertaken to determine which tidal marshes are likely to persist into the future. Here, we conduct the most robust comparison of marsh metrics to date, building on two foundational studies that had previously and independently developed metrics for marsh condition. We characterized pairs of marshes with contrasting trajectories (of marsh cover ) across six regions of the United States, using a combination of remote-sensing and field-based metrics. We also quantified decadal trends in marsh conversion to mudflat/open water at these twelve marshes. Our results suggest that metrics quantifying the distribution of vegetation across an elevational gradient represent the best indicators of marsh trajectories. The unvegetated to vegetated ratio and flood-ebb sediment differential also served as valuable indicators. No single metric universally predicted marsh trajectories, and therefore a more robust approach includes a suite of spatially integrated, landscape-scale metrics that are mostly obtainable from remote sensing. Data from surface elevation tables and marker horizons revealed that degrading marshes can have higher rates of vertical accretion and elevation gain than more intact counterparts, likely due to longer inundation times potentially combined with internal recycling of material. A high rate of elevation gain relative to local sea-level rise has been considered critical to marsh persistence, but our results suggest that it also may serve as a signature of degradation in marshes that have already begun to deteriorate. This investigation, with rigorous comparison and integration of metrics initially developed independently, tested at a broad geographic scale, provides a model for collaborative science to develop management tools for improving conservation outcomes.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2019

Thin-layer sediment addition to an existing salt marsh to combat sea-level rise and improve endangered species habitat in California, USA

Current tidal marsh elevations and their accretion rates are important predictors of vulnerability to sea-level rise. When tidal marshes are at risk, adaptation measures, such as sediment addition to increase elevations, can be implemented to prevent degradation and loss. In 2016, wildlife managers prescribed a thin-layer sediment addition of locally sourced dredged material from Anaheim Bay to mitigate plausible future impacts of sea-level rise to Seal Beach National Wildlife Refuge, an urbanized, subsiding, sediment limited, and low elevation tidal marsh in southern California, USA. In this study, our objectives were to determine how suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) and fluxes associated with sediment application affected an adjacent eelgrass bed and a more distant deep tidal channel at different time periods throughout the project and how sediment application affected tidal marsh elevation. Due to the sediment addition the tidal marsh elevation increased by 25.4 cm across 3.06 ha. Mean SSC levels at the eelgrass site increased from 4 mg/L during pre-augmentation to 16 mg/L during sediment application. SSC levels also increased up to 40 mg/L with the installation of sediment barriers. Winter storms during construction also had an influence on SSC, with an extreme storm event increasing SSC from 9 mg/L pre-storm levels to 16 mg/L during the storm. However, SSC at the deep site remained constant during all time periods with a mean of 7 mg/L. Our results show that little to zero sediment was exported out of Anaheim Bay during the study period, illustrating that any impacts were localized to the application area. These findings suggest that although long-range export of applied dredge material is unlikely from future thin-layer sediment application at this site, adjacent habitats could experience impacts if erosion control measures are not implemented effectively. Future projects will benefit from similar pre- and post-addition monitoring to establish the long-term efficacy of sea-level rise adaptation measures.

California↗

USGS2018

El Niño increases high‐tide flooding in tidal wetlands along the U.S. Pacific coast.

Periodic oscillations between El Niño and La Niña conditions in the Pacific Basin affect oceanographic and meteorological phenomena globally, with impacts on the abundance and distribution of marine species. However, El Niño effects on estuarine hydrology and tidal wetland processes have seldom been examined rigorously. We used detailed wetland elevation and local inundation data from 10 tidal wetlands located along the Pacific coast of the United States to assess changes in flooding during the 2015–2016 El Niño and to determine decadal‐scale relationships between estuarine sea‐level anomalies and Pacific Basin climate indices for this region. During the 2015–2016 El Niño all sites experienced significant increases in high‐tide water levels exceeding those predicted by astronomical tides, and increased flooding frequency during at least one of the El Niño subperiods relative to pre‐El Niño conditions. The magnitude of positive sea‐level anomalies varied by site (4–15 cm), with local hot spots of high water in southern Oregon, northern California, and Pt. Mugu lagoon in the Southern California Bight. Furthermore, over the last three decades of historic tide records, there were positive relationships between high‐tide sea‐level anomalies and equatorial Pacific Basin sea surface temperature anomalies across the region, and negative relationships with the Northern Oscillation Index. Increases of 1 °C in equatorial sea surface temperature were associated with 3–5 cm of increased high‐tide flooding at the sites. Elevated estuarine flooding associated with future El Niños could impact important tidal wetland processes and could be an additive stressor for wetlands facing accelerating sea‐level rise.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2018

U.S. Pacific coastal wetland resilience and vulnerability to sea-level rise

We used a first-of-its-kind comprehensive scenario approach to evaluate both the vertical and horizontal response of tidal wetlands to projected changes in the rate of sea-level rise (SLR) across 14 estuaries along the Pacific coast of the continental United States. Throughout the U.S. Pacific region, we found that tidal wetlands are highly vulnerable to end-of-century submergence, with resulting extensive loss of habitat. Using higher-range SLR scenarios, all high and middle marsh habitats were lost, with 83% of current tidal wetlands transitioning to unvegetated habitats by 2110. The wetland area lost was greater in California and Oregon (100%) but still severe in Washington, with 68% submerged by the end of the century. The only wetland habitat remaining at the end of the century was low marsh under higher-range SLR rates. Tidal wetland loss was also likely under more conservative SLR scenarios, including loss of 95% of high marsh and 60% of middle marsh habitats by the end of the century. Horizontal migration of most wetlands was constrained by coastal development or steep topography, with just two wetland sites having sufficient upland space for migration and the possibility for nearly 1:1 replacement, making SLR threats particularly high in this region and generally undocumented. With low vertical accretion rates and little upland migration space, Pacific coast tidal wetlands are at imminent risk of submergence with projected rates of rapid SLR.

Science Advances↗

USGS2017

Are coastal managers ready for climate change? A case study from estuaries along the Pacific coast of the United States

A key challenge for coastal resource managers is to plan and implement climate change adaptation strategies inlight of uncertainties and competing management priorities. In 2014, we held six workshops across estuaries along the Pacific coast of North America with over 150 participants to evaluate resource managers' perceived level of understanding of climate change science, where they obtain information, how they use this knowledge, and their preparedness for incorporating climate change into their management decisions. We found that most resource managers understood the types of climate change impacts likely to occur in their estuaries, but often lacked the scientific information to make decisions and plan effectively. Managers stated that time, money, and staff resources were the largest obstacles in their efforts. Managers identified that they learned most of their information from peers, scientific journals, and the Internet and indicated that sea-level rise was their greatest concern. There was, however, variation in managers' levels of readiness and perceived knowledge within and among workshop locations. The workshops revealed that some regions don't have the information they need or the planning capacity to effectively integrate climate change into their management, with eight out of fifteen site comparisons showing a significant difference between their level of preparedness (F 5,26 = 6.852; p = 0.0003), and their willingness to formally plan (F 5,26 = 12.84; p = 0.000002). We found that Urban estuaries were significantly different from Mixed Use and Rural estuaries, in having access to information and feeling more prepared to conduct climate change planning and implementation (F 2,29 = 17.34; p = 0.00001). To facilitate climate change preparedness more comprehensive integration of science into management decisions is essential.

Ocean and Coastal Management↗

USGS2016

Effects of climate change on tidal marshes along a latitudinal gradient in California

Public Summary The coastal region of California supports a wealth of ecosystem services including habitat provision for wildlife and fisheries. Tidal marshes, mudflats, and shallow bays within coastal estuaries link marine, freshwater and terrestrial habitats, and provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Climate change effects such as sea-level rise (SLR) are altering these habitats, but we know little about how these areas will change over the next 50–100 years. Our study examined the projected effects of three recent SLR scenarios produced for the West Coast of North America on tidal marshes in California. We compiled physical and biological data, including coastal topography, tidal inundation, plant composition, and sediment accretion to project how SLR may alter these ecosystems in the future. The goal of our research was to provide results that support coastal management and conservation efforts across California. Under a low SLR scenario, all study sites remained vegetated tidal wetlands, with most sites showing little elevation and vegetation change relative to sea level. At most sites, mid SLR projections led to increases in low marsh habitat at the expense of middle and high marsh habitat. Marshes at Morro Bay and Tijuana River Estuary were the most vulnerable to mid SLR with many areas becoming intertidal mudflat. Under a high SLR scenario, most sites were projected to lose vegetated habitat, eventually converting to intertidal mudflats. Our results suggest that California marshes are vulnerable to major habitat shifts under mid or high rates of SLR, especially in the latter part of the century. Loss of vegetated tidal marshes in California due to SLR is expected to impact ecosystem services that are dependent on coastal wetlands such as wildlife habitat, carbon sequestration, improved water quality, and coastal protection from storms.

California↗

USGS2015

Marshes to mudflats—Effects of sea-level rise on tidal marshes along a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest

Summary In the Pacific Northwest, coastal wetlands support a wealth of ecosystem services including habitat provision for wildlife and fisheries and flood protection. The tidal marshes, mudflats, and shallow bays of coastal estuaries link marine, freshwater, and terrestrial habitats, and provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Climate change effects such as sea-level rise are altering these habitats, but we know little about how these areas will change over the next 50–100 years. Our study examined the effects of sea-level rise on nine tidal marshes in Washington and Oregon between 2012 and 2015, with the goal of providing scientific data to support future coastal planning and conservation. We compiled physical and biological data, including coastal topography, tidal inundation, vegetation structure, as well as recent and historical sediment accretion rates, to assess and model how sea-level rise may alter these ecosystems in the future. Multiple factors, including initial elevation, marsh productivity, sediment availability, and rates of sea-level rise, affected marsh persistence. Under a low sea-level rise scenario, all marshes remained vegetated with little change in the present configuration of communities of marsh plants or gradually increased proportions of middle-, high-, or transition-elevation zones of marsh vegetation. However, at most sites, mid sea-level rise projections led to loss of habitat of middle and high marshes and a gain of low marshes. Under a high sea-level rise scenario, marshes at most sites eventually converted to intertidal mudflats. Two sites (Grays Harbor and Willapa) seemed to have the most resilience to a high rate of rise in sea-level, persisting as low marsh until at least 2110. Our main model finding is that most tidal marsh study sites are resilient to sea-level rise over the next 50–70 years, but that sea-level rise will eventually outpace marsh accretion and drown most habitats of high and middle marshes by 2110.

California, Oregon, Washington↗