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Carson A. Baughman

Publications and source records attributed to Carson A. Baughman.

14 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Abrupt onset and persistent downstream effects of acid rock drainage on rivers across northwest Arctic Alaska

Arctic streams and rivers are increasingly vulnerable to degradation from permafrost thaw that releases toxic elements via natural acid rock drainage. However, the spatial and temporal evolution of acid rock drainage on river chemistry across diverse mineral settings remain poorly constrained. Here, water chemistry in six watersheds across Alaska's Brooks Range (2022–2024) quantified the effects of acid rock drainage on river chemistry. Point-source acid rock drainage inputs (seeps and impaired tributaries) exhibited lower pH (median; pH: 3.2 and 6.9, respectively), higher sulfate (SO 4 2− : 3,025 and 390 mg L −1 , respectively), and elevated major and trace element concentrations (sum of 23 metals: 451 and 9.2 mg L −1 , respectively), compared to upstream unimpaired mainstem rivers (pH = 8.3, SO 4 2− = 68 mg L −1 ; metals = 0.1 mg L −1 ). Across watersheds, these inputs increased mainstem concentrations of major and trace elements (e.g., Fe, Al, Mn, Zn, Ni, Cd, and rare earth elements) and SO 4 2− ; however, mainstem river pH remained stable due to sufficient buffering. Within the Salmon River, concentrations of filter-passing and particulate fractions of constituents (SO 4 2− , Fe, Zn, Ni, and Cd) were elevated ≤70-fold at >100 km downstream of acidic inputs, documenting long-range transport. Temporal analyses of SO 4 2− and Zn concentration (2015–2024) revealed abrupt increases (≤263%) in two watersheds between 2019 and 2020, aligning with antecedent record warm and snowy winter conditions. Collectively, our results document the abrupt onset of acid rock drainage across Arctic rivers with potential for long-range downstream transport and implications for biogeochemical cycles and ecological and human health.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Metal mobilization from thawing permafrost to aquatic ecosystems is driving rusting of Arctic streams

Climate change in the Arctic is altering watershed hydrologic processes and biogeochemistry. Here, we present an emergent threat to Arctic watersheds based on observations from 75 streams in Alaska’s Brooks Range that recently turned orange, reflecting increased loading of iron and toxic metals. Using remote sensing, we constrain the timing of stream discoloration to the last 10 years, a period of rapid warming and snowfall, suggesting impairment is likely due to permafrost thaw. Thawing permafrost can foster chemical weathering of minerals, microbial reduction of soil iron, and groundwater transport of metals to streams. Compared to clear reference streams, orange streams have lower pH, higher turbidity, and higher sulfate, iron, and trace metal concentrations, supporting sulfide mineral weathering as a primary mobilization process. Stream discoloration was associated with dramatic declines in macroinvertebrate diversity and fish abundance. These findings have considerable implications for drinking water supplies and subsistence fisheries in rural Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

The dominance and growth of shallow groundwater resources in continuous permafrost environments

Water is a limited resource in Arctic watersheds with continuous permafrost because freezing conditions in winter and the impermeability of permafrost limit storage and connectivity between surface water and deep groundwater. However, groundwater can still be an important source of surface water in such settings, feeding springs and large aufeis fields that are abundant in cold regions and generating runoff when precipitation is rare. Whether groundwater is sourced from suprapermafrost taliks or deeper regional aquifers will impact water availability as the Arctic continues to warm and thaw. Previous research is ambiguous about the role of deep groundwater, leading to uncertainty regarding Arctic water availability and changing water resources. We analyzed chemistry and residence times of spring, stream, and river waters in the continuous permafrost zone of Alaska, spanning the mountains to the coastal plain. Water chemistry and age tracers show that surface waters are predominately sourced from recent precipitation and have short (<50 y) subsurface residence times. Remote sensing indicates trends in the areal extent of aufeis over the last 37 y, and correlations between aufeis extent and previous year summer temperature. Together, these data indicate that surface waters in continuous permafrost regions may be impacted by short flow paths and shallow suprapermafrost aquifers that are highly sensitive to climatic and hydrologic change over annual timescales. Despite the lack of connection to regional aquifers, continued warming and permafrost thaw may promote deepening of the shallow subsurface aquifers and creation of shallow taliks, providing some resilience to Arctic freshwater ecosystems.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2024

A comparison of contemporary and historical hydrology and water quality in the foothills and coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Arctic Slope, northern Alaska

The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is a unique landscape in northern Alaska with limited water resources, substantial biodiversity of rare and threatened species, as well as oil and gas resources. The region has unique hydrology related to perennial springs, and the formation of large aufeis fields—sheets of ice that grow in the river channels where water reaches the surface in the winter and freezes. This work aims to update our understanding of water resources and water quality in the springs, streams, rivers, and lakes of this region, returning to sites sampled by the U.S. Geological Survey in the 1970s. We resampled eight streams, four springs, and six lakes for hydrological metrics, water quality, and macroinvertebrates, and recalculated flood-frequency metrics for rivers using updated data and modern techniques. Aufeis field melt rates were also assessed for the past several decades. Although the available data preclude trend determinations in most cases, our analysis and comparison to the historical sampling indicates an increase in dissolved ions for streams and springs, faster and earlier aufeis melt, and similar macroinvertebrate populations.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Unrecorded tundra fires of the Arctic Slope, Alaska USA

Few fires are known to have burned the tundra of the Arctic Slope north of the Brooks Range in Alaska, USA. A total of 90 fires between 1969 and 2022 are known. Because fire has been rare, old burns can be detected by the traces of thermokarst and distinct vegetation they leave in otherwise uniform tundra, which are visible in aerial photograph archives. Several prehistoric tundra burns have been found in this way. Detection of tundra fires in this sparsely populated and remote area has been historically inconsistent and opportunistic, relying on reports by aircraft pilots. Fire reports have been logged into an administrative database which, out of necessity, has been used to scientifically evaluate changes in the fire regime. To improve the consistency of the record, we completed a systematic search of Landsat Collection 2 for the Brooks Range Foothills ecoregion over the period 1972–2022. We found 57 unrecorded tundra burns, about 41% of the total, which now numbers 138. Only 15% and 33% of all fires appear in MODIS and VIIRS satellite-borne thermal anomaly products, respectively. The fire frequency in the first 37 years of the record is 0.89 y −1 for natural ignitions that spread ≥10 ha. Frequency in the last 13 years is 2.5 y −1 , indicating a nearly three-fold increase in fire frequency.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Comparison of historical water temperature measurements with landsat analysis ready data provisional surface temperature estimates for the Yukon River in Alaska

Water temperature is a key element of freshwater ecological systems and a critical element within natural resource monitoring programs. In the absence of in situ measurements, remote sensing platforms can indirectly measure water temperature over time and space. The Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center has processed archived Landsat imagery into analysis ready data (ARD), including Level-2 Provisional Surface Temperature (pST) estimates derived from the Landsat 4–5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS). We compared in situ measurements of water temperature within the Yukon River in Alaska with 52 instances of pST estimates between June 2014 and September 2020. Agreement was good with an RMSE of 2.25 °C and only a slight negative bias in the estimated mean daily water temperature of −0.47 °C. For the 52 dates compared, the average daily water temperature measured by the USGS streamgage was 11.3 °C with a standard deviation of 5.7 °C. The average daily pST estimate was 10.8 °C with a standard deviation of 6.1 °C. At least in the case of large unstratified rivers in Alaska, ARD pST can be used to infer water temperature in the absence of or in tandem with ground-based water temperature monitoring campaigns.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Four decades of land-cover change on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska: Detecting disturbance-influenced vegetation shifts using landsat legacy data

Across Alaska’s Kenai Peninsula, disturbance events have removed large areas of forest over the last half century. Simultaneously, succession and landscape evolution have facilitated forest regrowth and expansion. Detecting forest loss within known pulse disturbance events is often straightforward given that reduction in tree cover is a readily detectable and measurable land-cover change. Land-cover change is more difficult to quantify when disturbance events are unknown, remote, or environmental response is slow in relation to human observation. While disturbance events and related land-cover change are relatively instant, assessing patterns of post-disturbance succession requires long term monitoring. Here, we describe a method for classifying land cover and quantifying land-cover change over time, using Landsat legacy imagery for three historical eras on the western Kenai Peninsula: 1973–2002, 2002–2017, and 1973–2017. Scenes from numerous Landsat sensors, including summer and winter seasons, were acquired between 1973 and 2017 and used to classify vegetation cover using a random forest classifier. Land-cover type was summarized by era and combined to produce a dataset capturing spatially explicit land-cover change at a moderate 30-m resolution. Our results document large-scale forest loss across the study area that can be attributed to known disturbance events including beetle kill and wildfire. Despite numerous and extensive disturbances resulting in forest loss, we estimate that the study area has experienced net forest gain over the duration of our study period due to reforestation within large fire events that predate this study. Transition between forest and graminoid non-forest land cover including wetlands and herbaceous uplands is the most common land-cover change—representing recruitment of a graminoid dominated understory following forest loss and the return of forest canopy given sufficient time post-disturbance.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

A decade of remotely sensed observations highlight complex processes linked to coastal permafrost bluff erosion in the Arctic

Eroding permafrost coasts are indicators and integrators of changes in the Arctic System as they are susceptible to the combined effects of declining sea ice extent, increases in open water duration, more frequent and impactful storms, sea-level rise, and warming permafrost. However, few observation sites in the Arctic have yet to link decadal-scale erosion rates with changing environmental conditions due to temporal data gaps. This study increases the temporal fidelity of coastal permafrost bluff observations using near-annual high spatial resolution (&lt;1 m) satellite imagery acquired between 2008 and 2017 for a 9-km segment of coastline at Drew Point, Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska. Our results show that mean annual erosion for the 2007 to 2016 decade was 17.2 m yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;, which is 2.5 times faster than historic rates, indicating that bluff erosion at this site is likely responding to changes in the Arctic System. In spite of a sustained increase in decadal-scale mean annual erosion rates, mean open water season erosion varied from 6.7 m yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; in 2010 to more than 22.0 m yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; in 2007, 2012, and 2016. This variability provided a range of coastal responses through which we explored the different roles of potential environmental drivers. The lack of significant correlations between mean open water season erosion and the environmental variables compiled in this study indicates that we may not be adequately capturing the environmental forcing factors, that the system is conditioned by long-term transient effects or extreme weather events rather than annual variability, or that other not yet considered factors may be responsible for the increased erosion occurring at Drew Point. Our results highlight an increase in erosion at Drew Point in the 21st century as well as the complexities associated with unraveling the factors responsible for changing coastal permafrost bluffs in the Arctic.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Remotely sensing the morphometrics and dynamics of a cold region dune field using historical aerial photography and airborne LiDAR data

This study uses an airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) survey, historical aerial photography and historical climate data to describe the character and dynamics of the Nogahabara Sand Dunes, a sub-Arctic dune field in interior Alaska’s discontinuous permafrost zone. The Nogahabara Sand Dunes consist of a 43-km 2 area of active transverse and barchanoid dunes within a 3200-km 2 area of vegetated dune and sand sheet deposits. The average dune height in the active portion of the dune field is 5.8 m, with a maximum dune height of 28 m. Dune spacing is variable with average crest-to-crest distances for select transects ranging from 66–132 m. Between 1952 and 2015, dunes migrated at an average rate of 0.52 m a −1 . Dune movement was greatest between 1952 and 1978 (0.68 m a −1 ) and least between 1978 and 2015 (0.43 m a −1 ). Dunes migrated predominantly to the southeast; however, along the dune field margin, net migration was towards the edge of the dune field regardless of heading. Better constraining the processes controlling dune field dynamics at the Nogahabara dunes would provide information that can be used to model possible reactivation of more northerly dune fields and sand sheets in response to climate change, shifting fire regimes and permafrost thaw.

Remote Sensing↗
USGS2017

Younger-Dryas cooling and sea-ice feedbacks were prominent features of the Pleistocene-Holocene transition in Arctic Alaska

Declining sea-ice extent is currently amplifying climate warming in the Arctic. Instrumental records at high latitudes are too short-term to provide sufficient historical context for these trends, so paleoclimate archives are needed to better understand the functioning of the sea ice-albedo feedback. Here we use the oxygen isotope values of wood cellulose in living and sub-fossil willow shrubs (δ 18 O wc ) ( Salix spp.) that have been radiocarbon-dated ( 14 C) to produce a multi-millennial record of climatic change on Alaska's North Slope during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition (13,500–7500 calibrated 14 C years before present; 13.5–7.5 ka). We first analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of δ 18 O wc in living willows growing at upland sites and found that over the last 30 years δ 18 O wc values in individual growth rings correlate with local summer temperature and inter-annual variations in summer sea-ice extent. Deglacial δ 18 O wc values from 145 samples of subfossil willows clearly record the Allerød warm period (∼13.2 ka), the Younger Dryas cold period (12.9–11.7 ka), and the Holocene Thermal Maximum (11.7–9.0 ka). The magnitudes of isotopic changes over these rapid climate oscillations were ∼4.5‰, which is about 60% of the differences in δ 18 O wc between those willows growing during the last glacial period and today. Modeling of isotope-precipitation relationships based on Rayleigh distillation processes suggests that during the Younger Dryas these large shifts in δ 18 O wc values were caused by interactions between local temperature and changes in evaporative moisture sources, the latter controlled by seaice extent in the Arctic Ocean and Bering Sea. Based on these results and on the effects that sea-ice have on climate today, we infer that ocean-derived feedbacks amplified temperature changes and enhanced precipitation in coastal regions of Arctic Alaska during warm times in the past. Today, isotope values in willows on the North Slope of Alaska are similar to those growing during the warmest times of the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, which were times of widespread permafrost thaw and striking ecological changes.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

Presence of rapidly degrading permafrost plateaus in south-central Alaska

Permafrost presence is determined by a complex interaction of climatic, topographic, and ecological conditions operating over long time scales. In particular, vegetation and organic layer characteristics may act to protect permafrost in regions with a mean annual air temperature (MAAT) above 0 °C. In this study, we document the presence of residual permafrost plateaus in the western Kenai Peninsula lowlands of south-central Alaska, a region with a MAAT of 1.5 ± 1 °C (1981–2010). Continuous ground temperature measurements between 16 September 2012 and 15 September 2015, using calibrated thermistor strings, documented the presence of warm permafrost (−0.04 to −0.08 °C). Field measurements (probing) on several plateau features during the fall of 2015 showed that the depth to the permafrost table averaged 1.48 m but at some locations was as shallow as 0.53 m. Late winter surveys (augering, coring, and GPR) in 2016 showed that the average seasonally frozen ground thickness was 0.45 m, overlying a talik above the permafrost table. Measured permafrost thickness ranged from 0.33 to > 6.90 m. Manual interpretation of historic aerial photography acquired in 1950 indicates that residual permafrost plateaus covered 920 ha as mapped across portions of four wetland complexes encompassing 4810 ha. However, between 1950 and ca. 2010, permafrost plateau extent decreased by 60.0 %, with lateral feature degradation accounting for 85.0 % of the reduction in area. Permafrost loss on the Kenai Peninsula is likely associated with a warming climate, wildfires that remove the protective forest and organic layer cover, groundwater flow at depth, and lateral heat transfer from wetland surface waters in the summer. Better understanding the resilience and vulnerability of ecosystem-protected permafrost is critical for mapping and predicting future permafrost extent and degradation across all permafrost regions that are currently warming. Further work should focus on reconstructing permafrost history in south-central Alaska as well as additional contemporary observations of these ecosystem-protected permafrost sites south of the regions with relatively stable permafrost.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

Reconstructing turbidity in a glacially influenced lake using the Landsat TM and ETM+ surface reflectance climate data record archive, Lake Clark, Alaska

Lake Clark is an important nursery lake for sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka ) in the headwaters of Bristol Bay, Alaska, the most productive wild salmon fishery in the world. Reductions in water clarity within Alaska lake systems as a result of increased glacial runoff have been shown to reduce salmon production via reduced abundance of zooplankton and macroinvertebrates. In this study, we reconstruct long-term, lake-wide water clarity for Lake Clark using the Landsat TM and ETM+ surface reflectance products (1985–2014) and in situ water clarity data collected between 2009 and 2013. Analysis of a Landsat scene acquired in 2009, coincident with in situ measurements in the lake, and uncertainty analysis with four scenes acquired within two weeks of field data collection showed that Band 3 surface reflectance was the best indicator of turbidity ( r 2 = 0.55, RMSE << 0.01). We then processed 151 (98 partial- and 53 whole-lake) Landsat scenes using this relation and detected no significant long-term trend in mean turbidity for Lake Clark between 1991 and 2014. We did, however, detect interannual variation that exhibited a non-significant ( r 2 = 0.20) but positive correlation ( r = 0.20) with regional mean summer air temperature and found the month of May exhibited a significant positive trend ( r 2 = 0.68, p = 0.02) in turbidity between 2000 and 2014. This study demonstrates the utility of hindcasting turbidity in a glacially influenced lake using the Landsat surface reflectance products. It may also help land and resource managers reconstruct turbidity records for lakes that lack in situ monitoring, and may be useful in predicting future water clarity conditions based on projected climate scenarios.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

Soil surface organic layers in Arctic Alaska: spatial distribution, rates of formation, and microclimatic effects

Organic layers of living and dead vegetation cover the ground surface in many permafrost landscapes and play important roles in ecosystem processes. These soil surface organic layers (SSOLs) store large amounts of carbon and buffer the underlying permafrost and its contained carbon from changes in aboveground climate. Understanding the dynamics of SSOLs is a prerequisite for predicting how permafrost and carbon stocks will respond to warming climate. Here we ask three questions about SSOLs in a representative area of the Arctic Foothills region of northern Alaska: (1) What environmental factors control the thickness of SSOLs and the carbon they store? (2) How long do SSOLs take to develop on newly stabilized point bars? (3) How do SSOLs affect temperature in the underlying ground? Results show that SSOL thickness and distribution correlate with elevation, drainage area, vegetation productivity, and incoming solar radiation. A multiple regression model based on these correlations can simulate spatial distribution of SSOLs and estimate the organic carbon stored there. SSOLs develop within a few decades after a new, sandy, geomorphic surface stabilizes but require 500&ndash;700&thinsp;years to reach steady state thickness. Mature SSOLs lower the growing season temperature and mean annual temperature of the underlying mineral soil by 8 and 3&deg;C, respectively. We suggest that the proximate effects of warming climate on permafrost landscapes now covered by SSOLs will occur indirectly via climate's effects on the frequency, extent, and severity of disturbances like fires and landslides that disrupt the SSOLs and interfere with their protection of the underlying permafrost.

Alaska↗