Predicting the persistence of salamanders: consequences of phenological shifts for species of management concern on DoD lands
As climate change effects intensify, key life history events may become decoupled from necessary biotic and abiotic resources. For species of management concern on Department of Defense (DoD) lands, these shifts in phenology may prove difficult to address without a mechanistic understanding of the drivers of such changes. We sought to determine the causes and effects of phenological shifts on species of management concern by using observational and experimental data to develop and test population viability models. Our objectives were to (i) identify the patterns and drivers of adult breeding and juvenile emigration phenology for four pond-breeding salamanders (three of management concern), (ii) determine how shifts in phenology and abiotic resources affect the strength of species interactions, community structure, and population viability, and (iii) provide management options to mitigate shifts in phenology that may impact ongoing conservation and recovery efforts.