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Carol L. Luukkonen

Publications and source records attributed to Carol L. Luukkonen.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2025

Harmonization of a water withdrawal dataset for the conterminous United States

The U.S. Geological Survey is developing nationally consistent water-use modeling approaches to replace previous methods relying on locally specific reported and estimated data. These national assessments require datasets that incorporate water withdrawal variability across the United States and over long periods. However, source data often have unclear definitions, missing or varied units, differing temporal resolutions, varied data quality, and inconsistent formats, which hinder automation and require individualized processing. The public-supply datasets described in this paper were used in machine learning models to estimate annual and monthly public-supply water use for 2000–2020 for the conterminous United States (CONUS) and in a model to estimate public-supply deliveries. Public-supply withdrawal data were acquired for the CONUS and the District of Columbia; however, 11 states had annual data for only 1 year, and 10 states had no monthly data. Annual withdrawal data were acquired for 81% of public-supply water service areas, and monthly withdrawal data were acquired for 47% for at least 1 year from 2000 to 2020. These datasets and methods provide the most comprehensive collection of reported public-supply withdrawals to date and can be used by water-use managers, the scientific community, and the broader public. The extensive data processing described herein can be applicable to datasets representing other categories of water use.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2025

Public supply water delivery analysis and estimation for the conterminous United States

Public supply water withdrawals represent 14% of all withdrawals in the conterminous United States (CONUS), supplying approximately 87% of the population with fresh water. Deliveries for public water supply are crucial for associating water use amounts with populations because they often differ from total withdrawals due to wholesales, transfers, losses, and other factors. Understanding these differences helps identify the drivers for each type of delivery. The goal of this study was to compile all available public water supply delivery data for the CONUS and develop a data-driven model to estimate deliveries for all water service areas within the CONUS. Annual deliveries were estimated between 2010 and 2020, encompassing total water deliveries; combined commercial, industrial, and institutional deliveries (CII); and domestic deliveries. Data were compiled for 2,744 water service areas to produce the most comprehensive public water supply delivery data set for the CONUS to date. Three ensemble modeling approaches were developed to estimate total, CII, and domestic per capita (DPC) deliveries using a gradient boosted regression tree modeling approach. Estimates of daily domestic and CII per capita deliveries were generated from these models for approximately 18,800 water service areas, covering most public water systems in the CONUS. Domestic delivery was found to be lowest in the midwestern region and higher in the southern and southwest regions of the United States. Results indicate that climate and land use can be associated with regional differences in DPC delivery. Population metrics and land use were identified as significant contributors to CII delivery estimates.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2025

Water use across the conterminous United States, water years 2010–20

Withdrawals of water for human use are fundamental to the evaluation of the Nation’s water availability. This chapter provides an analysis of public supply, crop irrigation, and thermoelectric power water use for the conterminous United States (CONUS) during water years 2010–20. These three categories account for about 90 percent of water withdrawals in the Nation. The values presented here are based on modeling approaches that estimate water use at temporal (monthly) and spatial scales (12-digit hydrologic unit code—small watersheds sized 50–100 square kilometers) compatible for integration into a broader national assessment of water availability. Models also provide an understanding of factors that influence water use. An estimated 244,817 million gallons per day (Mgal/d; 28,677 million cubic meters per month [Mm 3 /mo]) were withdrawn on average within the CONUS during water years 2010–20 from fresh water and saline water for crop irrigation, public supply, and thermoelectric power, with shares of 43, 14.5, and 42.5 percent for each of these categories, respectively. In the same period, estimated withdrawals and consumptive use (1) for public supply were 35,400 and 4,219 Mgal/d (4,081 and 486 Mm 3 /mo), respectively; (2) for crop irrigation were 105,497 and 75,698 Mgal/d (12,147 and 8,716 Mm 3 /mo), respectively; and (3) for thermoelectric power from fresh water were 82,656 and 2,904 Mgal/d (9,952 and 345 Mm 3 /mo), respectively. Withdrawals for these categories of water use are highly spatially variable, with western States dominated by crop irrigation and eastern States dominated by thermoelectric-power water use. Public supply accounts for the largest percentage of water use in several heavily populated northeastern States. Reliance on groundwater compared to surface water depends on the availability of water sources and the type of water use. For public supply, withdrawals from groundwater are greater than withdrawals from surface water in the Western aggregated hydrologic regions, whereas the balance shifts to more surface water for the rest of the CONUS. In all aggregated hydrologic regions, the predominant source of water for crop irrigation is groundwater. Most thermoelectric power facilities in the eastern half of the CONUS use surface water from freshwater and saline sources; most thermoelectric power facilities in the western half of the CONUS use groundwater.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2024

Data and knowledge gaps of a water bottling facility inventory and select water-use dataset, United States

In 2023, the U.S. Geological Survey developed a national inventory of water bottling facilities for the United States, including information about locations, water sources, water use, and a collection of other attributes. The purpose of the inventory was to provide information about water bottling facilities needed to assess and improve understanding of local-, regional-, and national-scale hydrologic and socioeconomic effects resulting from water extraction for bottling. Beverage types coded in the North American Industry Classification System under subsector 312 (Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing) were compiled; however, facility information was often not publicly available, time intensive to search manually, and difficult to verify because there are no nationally available facility lists. A separate evaluation of facilities in the Great Lakes region identified some facilities that were missing and some with incorrect information. Ancillary facility attributes were primarily available from a proprietary business dataset and water-use data could only be acquired for a small subset of facilities. These limitations and deficiencies may affect the types of analyses that can be done using the inventory information. Therefore, the following data-quality aspects are used to describe the information compiled in the facility and water-use tables: completeness, uniqueness, validity, timeliness, accuracy, consistency, and accessibility. The resulting implications of the data and knowledge gaps are that users of the data may need to make additional evaluations of the inventory information for some analyses.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2024

Next generation public supply water withdrawal estimation for the conterminous United States using machine learning and operational frameworks

Estimation of human water withdrawals is more important now than ever due to uncertain water supplies, population growth, and climate change. Fourteen percent of the total water withdrawal in the United States is used for public supply, typically including deliveries to domestic, commercial, and occasionally including industrial, irrigation, and thermoelectric water withdrawal. Stewards of water resources in the USA require estimates of water withdrawals to manage and plan for future demands and sustainable water supplies. This study compiled the most comprehensive conterminous United States water withdrawal data set to date and developed a machine learning framework for estimating public supply withdrawals and associated uncertainty for the period 2000–2020. The modeling approach provides service area resolution estimates to allow for annual and monthly water withdrawal estimation while incorporating a complex array of driving factors that include hydroclimatic, demographic, socioeconomic, geographic, and land use factors. Model results reveal highly variable and lognormally distributed per-capita water withdrawal, spanning from 30 to 650 gallons per capita per day (GPCD), across community, regional, and national scales, with pronounced seasonal variations. Analysis of estimated withdrawal trends indicates that the national annual average withdrawal experienced a decline at a rate of 0.58 GPCD/year during the period from 2000 to 2020. Model interpretation reveals a complex interplay between public supply withdrawal and key predictors, including population size, warm-season precipitation, counts of large buildings and houses, and areas of urban and commercial land use. The developed models can forecast future public supply driven by various climate, demographic, and socioeconomic scenarios.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2022

Analysis of groundwater and surface water in areas of isoxaflutole application, Tuscola and Kalamazoo Counties, Michigan

The herbicide 5-cyclopropyl-4-(2-methylsulfonyl-4-trifluoromethylbenzoyl) isoxazole, also known as isoxaflutole (IXF), was conditionally approved for use on corn in Michigan in 2015. The fate of IXF and its degradates in different environmental settings and the processes by which these compounds move to groundwater or to surface-water bodies have been previously studied, but little information about possible persistence and buildup of this herbicide and its degradates in Michigan’s groundwater and surface water is available. Therefore, from 2015 to 2020, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, studied IXF and two of its degradates in two locations where IXF was applied. IXF and its degradates were rarely detected in shallow groundwater downgradient from IXF applications. In contrast, one or more of the three target IXF compounds were detected in 40 percent of surface-water samples. The degradates 1-(2-methylsulfonyl-4-trifluoromethylphenyl)-2-cyano-3-cyclopropyl propan-1-dione), also known as diketonitrile isoxaflutole (DKN), and 2-methylsulfonyl-4-(trifluoromethyl) benzoic acid (BAA), the benzoic acid analogue of IXF, were detected more frequently than the parent compound. At surface-water sites, DKN and BAA reached maximum concentrations within about the first 5 weeks after IXF application after rainfall-runoff events. Concentrations subsequent to post-application maxima decreased through time approximately following first-order, exponential loss kinetics. Carryover of DKN and BAA, from an application year to the following spring, occurred at several surface-water sites, and springtime concentrations were typically 1–5 percent of maximum, post-application concentrations. Virtually no detections were recorded later in the growing season during non-application years. Results indicate rapid loss of IXF and very few detections of the parent compound from the study areas. The degradates DKN and BAA were more frequently detected in surface runoff up to about 1 year after IXF application, but no evidence of longer-term accumulation was found.

Michigan↗
USGS2021

Factors affecting uncertainty of public supply, self-supplied domestic, irrigation, and thermoelectric water-use data, 1985–2015—Evaluation of information sources, estimation methods, and data variability

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water-Use Program is responsible for compiling and disseminating the Nation's water-use data. Working in cooperation with local, State, and Federal agencies, the USGS has collected and published national water-use estimates every 5 years, beginning in 1950. These water-use data may vary because of actual changes in water use, because of changes in estimation methods, or because of errors. Comparison and interpretation of these data is difficult without first determining the factors that contribute to data variability. This report describes factors that may affect data quality and documents ways to investigate the variability of public supply, self-supplied domestic, irrigation, and thermoelectric water-use data for the 1985–2015 compilations. The USGS produces national water-use estimates for various categories of water use for every county in the United States. Knowledge about the sources of data for county estimates is important because factors such as estimation methodology and reporting affect data uncertainty Determination of meaningful patterns and trends in the data are contingent on the use of consistent methodology throughout the period of interest. With the many ways that water-use data have been collected, assembled, and estimated, multiple factors likely contribute to data uncertainty, Data used to produce these estimates may be furnished from agencies that collect information from entities who report water use; gaps in reported data are typically estimated to achieve a comprehensive county estimate. For example, public supply and thermoelectric category data are based primarily on furnished site-specific data; whereas crop irrigation is often furnished or estimated at the county scale. Public supply deliveries for domestic use and self-supplied domestic withdrawals are most often estimated by USGS personnel using per capita use rate coefficients. Irrigation may be estimated using crop water requirements, application rates, or other soil water balance methods when furnished reported data are not available. Rates, percentages, medians, and interquartile ranges were used to investigate variability in the water-use data among States, regions, and years. The purposes of these evaluations were to (1) identify extreme values that may reflect changes in information sources, estimation methods, or errors; (2) indicate areas of variable or consistent values that are unexpected; and (3) indicate areas where values change because of local climate or other factors. Where factors are identified that contribute to data variability, such as a change in methodology, additional work could determine uncertainty because of these factors. These evaluations identified the availability of information that is needed to address data limitations. Factors such as estimation methodology affect data quality. Some updates to method codes assigned in 2015 and assignment of method codes to earlier compilation datasets for all categories would provide much needed metadata for users of the data. Improvements in data documentation describing sources of information and estimation methods and additional metadata information from agencies and entities that furnish water-use data, would enable a more complete understanding and depiction of water-use patterns and trends. Additional metadata are needed for users of the data to better understand the water-use data and interpret changes in water use across the United States and with time.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2018

Delineation of contributing areas for 2017 pumping conditions to selected wells in Ingham County, Michigan

As part of local wellhead protection area programs, areas contributing water to production wells need to be periodically updated because groundwater-flow paths depend in part on the stresses to the groundwater-flow system. A steady-state groundwater-flow model that was constructed in 2009 was updated to reflect recent (2017) pumping conditions in the Lansing and East Lansing area in the Tri-County region, Michigan. For this current (2017) study, withdrawals from selected production wells were updated, and the existing model calibration under the new pumping conditions was checked. Results of flow simulations indicate that 10-year time-of-travel areas cover approximately 25 square miles and 40-year time-oftravel areas cover approximately 51 square miles.

Michigan↗
USGS2015

Estimation of monthly water yields and flows for 1951-2012 for the United States portion of the Great Lakes Basin with AFINCH

Monthly water yields from 105,829 catchments and corresponding flows in 107,691 stream segments were estimated for water years 1951–2012 in the Great Lakes Basin in the United States. Both sets of estimates were computed by using the Analysis of Flows In Networks of CHannels (AFINCH) application within the NHDPlus geospatial data framework. AFINCH provides an environment to develop constrained regression models to integrate monthly streamflow and water-use data with monthly climatic data and fixed basin characteristics data available within NHDPlus or supplied by the user. For this study, the U.S. Great Lakes Basin was partitioned into seven study areas by grouping selected hydrologic subregions and adjoining cataloguing units. This report documents the regression models and data used to estimate monthly water yields and flows in each study area. Estimates of monthly water yields and flows are presented in a Web-based mapper application. Monthly flow time series for individual stream segments can be retrieved from the Web application and used to approximate monthly flow-duration characteristics and to identify possible trends.

Great Lakes Basin↗
USGS2014

Delineation of contributing areas to selected wells in Ingham County, Michigan

A groundwater-flow model that was constructed in 2009 was updated to reflect recent (2011–12) pumping conditions in the Tri-County region, which consists of Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties, Michigan. As part of local wellhead protection area programs, areas contributing water to local production wells must be periodically updated, because groundwater-flow paths depend in part on the stresses, such as groundwater withdrawals, to the groundwater-flow system. For this current (2013) study, withdrawals from selected city of Lansing production wells were updated, and simulated heads and flows under the new pumping conditions compared favorably to previously measured values. Results of flow simulations indicate that 10-year time-of-travel contributing areas cover approximately 19.4 square miles, and 40-year time-of-travel contributing areas cover approximately 39 square miles.

Michigan↗
USGS2013

Relation between organic-wastewater compounds, groundwater geochemistry, and well characteristics for selected wells in Lansing, Michigan

In 2010, groundwater from 20 Lansing Board of Water and Light (BWL) production wells was tested for 69 organic-wastewater compounds (OWCs). The OWCs detected in one-half of the sampled wells are widely used in industrial and environmental applications and commonly occur in many wastes and stormwater. To identify factors that contribute to the occurrence of these constituents in BWL wells, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) interpreted the results of these analyses and related detections of OWCs to local characteristics and groundwater geochemistry. Analysis of groundwater-chemistry data collected by the BWL during routine monitoring from 1969 to 2011 indicates that the geochemistry of the BWL wells has changed over time, with the major difference being an increase in sodium and chloride. The concentrations of sodium and chloride were positively correlated to frequency of OWC detections. The BWL wells studied are all completed in the Saginaw aquifer, which consists of water-bearing sandstones of Pennsylvanian age. The Saginaw aquifer is underlain by the Parma-Bayport aquifer, and overlain by the Glacial aquifer. Two possible sources of sodium and chloride were evaluated: basin brines by way of the Parma-Bayport aquifer, and surficial sources by way of the Glacial aquifer. To determine if water from the underlying aquifer had influenced well-water geochemistry over time, the total dissolved solids concentration and changes in major ion concentrations were examined with respect to well depth, age, and pumping rate. To address a possible surficial source of sodium and chloride, 25 well, aquifer, or hydrologic characteristics, and 2 groundwater geochemistry variables that might influence whether, or the rate at which, water from the land surface could reach each well were compared to OWC detections and well chemistry. The statistical tests performed during this study, using available variables, indicated that reduced time of travel of water from the land surface to the well opening was significantly correlated with detections of OWCs. No specific well or aquifer characteristic was correlated with OWC detections; however, wells with detections tended to have less modeled confining material thickness (as simulated in the regional groundwater flow model), which is an estimate of the amount of clay or shale between the Glacial and Saginaw aquifers. Additional analyses and collection of other data would be required to more conclusively identify the source and to determine the potential vulnerability of other wells because each BWL well may have a somewhat unique set of characteristics that governs its response to pumping. Therefore, it is possible that a relevant explanatory variable was not included in this analysis. The current patterns of geochemistry, and the relation between these patterns and volume of pumpage for the BWL wells, indicates other wells may be susceptible to OWCs in the future.

Michigan↗
USGS2010

Model Refinement and Simulation of Groundwater Flow in Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties, Michigan

A groundwater-flow model that was constructed in 1996 of the Saginaw aquifer was refined to better represent the regional hydrologic system in the Tri-County region, which consists of Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties, Michigan. With increasing demand for groundwater, the need to manage withdrawals from the Saginaw aquifer has become more important, and the 1996 model could not adequately address issues of water quality and quantity. An updated model was needed to better address potential effects of drought, locally high water demands, reduction of recharge by impervious surfaces, and issues affecting water quality, such as contaminant sources, on water resources and the selection of pumping rates and locations. The refinement of the groundwater-flow model allows simulations to address these issues of water quantity and quality and provides communities with a tool that will enable them to better plan for expansion and protection of their groundwater-supply systems. Model refinement included representation of the system under steady-state and transient conditions, adjustments to the estimated regional groundwater-recharge rates to account for both temporal and spatial differences, adjustments to the representation and hydraulic characteristics of the glacial deposits and Saginaw Formation, and updates to groundwater-withdrawal rates to reflect changes from the early 1900s to 2005. Simulations included steady-state conditions (in which stresses remained constant and changes in storage were not included) and transient conditions (in which stresses changed in annual and monthly time scales and changes in storage within the system were included). These simulations included investigation of the potential effects of reduced recharge due to impervious areas or to low-rainfall/drought conditions, delineation of contributing areas with recent pumping rates, and optimization of pumping subject to various quantity and quality constraints. Simulation results indicate potential declines in water levels in both the upper glacial aquifer and the upper sandstone bedrock aquifer under steady-state and transient conditions when recharge was reduced by 20 and 50 percent in urban areas. Transient simulations were done to investigate reduced recharge due to low rainfall and increased pumping to meet anticipated future demand with 24 months (2 years) of modified recharge or modified recharge and pumping rates. During these two simulation years, monthly recharge rates were reduced by about 30 percent, and monthly withdrawal rates for Lansing area production wells were increased by 15 percent. The reduction in the amount of water available to recharge the groundwater system affects the upper model layers representing the glacial aquifers more than the deeper bedrock layers. However, with a reduction in recharge and an increase in withdrawals from the bedrock aquifer, water levels in the bedrock layers are affected more than those in the glacial layers. Differences in water levels between simulations with reduced recharge and reduced recharge with increased pumping are greatest in the Lansing area and least away from pumping centers, as expected. Additionally, the increases in pumping rates had minimal effect on most simulated streamflows. Additional simulations included updating the estimated 10-year wellhead-contributing areas for selected Lansing-area wells under 2006-7 pumping conditions. Optimization of groundwater withdrawals with a water-resource management model was done to determine withdrawal rates while minimizing operational costs and to determine withdrawal locations to achieve additional capacity while meeting specified head constraints. In these optimization scenarios, the desired groundwater withdrawals are achieved by simulating managed wells (where pumping rates can be optimized) and unmanaged wells (where pumping rates are not optimized) and by using various combinations of existing and proposed well locations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2010

Estimation of groundwater use for a groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin and adjacent areas, 1864-2005

The U.S. Geological Survey, at the request of Congress, is assessing the availability and use of the Nation's water resources to help characterize how much water is available now, how water availability is changing, and how much water can be expected to be available in the future. The Great Lakes Basin Pilot project of the U.S. Geological Survey national assessment of water availability and use focused on the Great Lakes Basin and included detailed studies of the processes governing water availability in the Great Lakes Basin. One of these studies included the development of a groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin. This report describes the compilation and estimation of the groundwater withdrawals in those areas in Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois that were needed for the Lake Michigan Basin study groundwater-flow model. These data were aggregated for 12 model time intervals spanning 1864 to 2005 and were summarized by model area, model subregion, category of water use, aquifer system, aquifer type, and hydrogeologic unit model layer. The types and availability of information on groundwater withdrawals vary considerably among states because water-use programs often differ in the types of data collected and in the methods and frequency of data collection. As a consequence, the methods used to estimate and verify the data also vary. Additionally, because of the different sources of data and different terminologies applied for the purposes of this report, the water-use data published in this report may differ from water-use data presented in other reports. These data represent only a partial estimate of groundwater use in each state because estimates were compiled only for areas in Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois within the Lake Michigan Basin model area. Groundwater-withdrawal data were compiled for both nearfield and farfield model areas in Wisconsin and Illinois, whereas these data were compiled primarily for the nearfield model area in Michigan and Indiana. Overall water use for the selected areas in Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois was less during early time intervals than during more recent intervals, with large increases beginning around the 1960s. Total estimated groundwater withdrawals for model input range from 18.01 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) for interval 1 (1864-1900) to 1,280.25 Mgal/d for interval 12 (2001-5). Withdrawals for the public-supply category make up the majority of the withdrawals in each of the four states. In Wisconsin and Michigan, the second largest withdrawals are for the irrigation category; in Indiana and Illinois, industrial withdrawals account for the second largest withdrawal amounts. The smallest withdrawals are for miscellaneous uses in Wisconsin and irrigation uses in Indiana and Illinois. Estimated groundwater withdrawals in the Southern Lower Peninsula of Michigan, Northeastern Illinois, and the farfield model area are generally larger than in the other model subregions. Withdrawals in Michigan and Indiana are predominantly from the Quaternary aquifer system, whereas withdrawals in Illinois are predominantly from the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer systems. Withdrawals in Wisconsin are about equal from the Quaternary and Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer systems. Estimated groundwater withdrawals in Michigan and Indiana are predominantly from the unconfined unconsolidated aquifer type. Withdrawals in Illinois are largely from the deep confined bedrock aquifer type, although they decreased considerably in more recent time intervals. Wisconsin withdrawals are about equal from unconfined unconsolidated and deep confined bedrock aquifer types. Groundwater-withdrawal estimates in Wisconsin were compiled for the 47 easternmost counties within the boundary of the Lake Michigan Basin model, of which 32 counties, though not entirely contained, are at least partly within the Lake Michigan Basin. Overall, 6,457 withdrawal locations were estima

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2005

Water use for irrigation in Michigan, 2001

Each year, water-use data for Michigan are compiled or estimated by the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ), working in cooperation with the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS). The resulting information provides a category-by-category profile of over 4,200 facilities throughout the State. The data are reported in the Michigan Water Use Reporting Program, which provides needed information for water-resources planning and enhances public understanding of the value of sustaining water resources within the Great Lakes Basin. The primary goal of the program is to inventory, analyze, and report baseline data for major water uses.

Michigan↗
USGS2004

Simulation of ground-water flow in the Vevay Township area, Ingham County, Michigan

Ground water is the primary source of water for domestic, public-supply, and industrial use within the Tri-County region that includes Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties in Michigan. Because of the importance of this ground-water resource, numerous communities, including the city of Mason in Ingham County, have begun local Wellhead Protection Programs. In these programs, communities protect their groundwater resource by identifying the areas that contribute water to production wells and potential sources of contamination, and by developing methods to manage and minimize threats to the water supply. In addition, some communities in Michigan are concerned about water availability, particularly in areas experiencing water-level declines in the vicinity of quarry dewatering operations. In areas where Wellhead Protection Programs are implemented and there are potential threats to the water supply, residents and communities need adequate information to protect the water supply. In 1996, a regional ground-water-flow model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to simulate ground-water flow in Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties. This model was developed primarily to simulate the bedrock ground-waterflow system; ground-water flow in the unconsolidated glacial sediments was simulated to support analysis of flow in the underlying bedrock Saginaw aquifer. Since its development in 1996, regional model simulations have been conducted to address protection concerns and water availability questions of local water-resources managers. As a result of these continuing model simulations, additional hydrogeologic data have been acquired in the Tri-County region that has improved the characterization of the simulated ground-water-flow system and improved the model calibration. A major benefit of these updates and refinements is that the regional Tri-County model continues to be a useful tool that improves the understanding of the ground-water-flow system in the Tri-County region, provides local water-resources managers with a means to answer ground-water protection and availability questions, and serves as an example that can be applied in other areas of the state. A refined version of the 1996 Tri-County regional ground-water-flow model, developed in 1997, was modified with local hydrogeologic information in the Vevay Township area in Michigan. This model, updated in 2003 for this study, was used to simulate ground-water flow to address groundwater protection and availability questions in Vevay Township. The 2003 model included refinement of glacial and bedrock hydraulic characteristics, better representation of the degree of connection between the glacial deposits and the underlying Saginaw aquifer, and refinement of the model cell size. The 2003 model was used to simulate regional groundwater flow, to delineate areas contributing recharge and zones of contribution to production wells in the city of Mason, and to simulate the effects of present and possible future withdrawals. The areal extent of the 10- and 40-year areas contributing recharge and the zones of contribution for the city of Mason's production wells encompass about 2.3 and 6.2 square miles, respectively. Simulation results, where withdrawals for quarry operations were represented by one well pumping at 1.6 million gallons per day, indicate that water levels would decline slightly over 1 foot approximately 2 miles from the quarry in the glacial deposits and in the Saginaw aquifer. With a reduction of the local riverbed conductance or removal of local river model cells representing Mud Creek, water-level declines would extend further west of Mud Creek and further to the north, east, and south of the simulated quarry. Simulation results indicate that water withdrawn for quarry dewatering operations would decrease ground-water recharge to nearby Mud Creek, would increase ground-water discharge from Mud Creek, and that local water levels would be lowered as a result.

Michigan↗
USGS2004

Simulation of the ground-water-flow system in the Kalamazoo County area, Michigan

A ground-water-flow model was developed to investigate the ground-water resources of Kalamazoo County. Ground water is widely used as a source of water for drinking and industry in Kalamazoo County and the surrounding area. Additionally, lakes and streams are valued for their recreational and aesthetic uses. Stresses on the ground-water system, both natural and human-induced, have raised concerns about the long-term availability of ground water for people to use and for replenishment of lakes and streams. Potential changes in these stresses, including withdrawals and recharge, were simulated using a ground-water-flow model. Simulations included steady-state conditions (in which stresses remained constant and changes in storage were not included) and transient conditions (in which stresses changed in seasonal and monthly time scales and storage within the system was included). Steady-state simulations were used to investigate the long-term effects on water levels and streamflow of a reduction in recharge or an increase in pumping to projected 2010 withdrawal rates, withdrawal and application of water for irrigation, and a reduction in recharge in urban areas caused by impervious surfaces. Transient simulations were used to investigate changes in withdrawals to match seasonal and monthly patterns under various recharge conditions, and the potential effects of the use of water for irrigation over the summer months. With a reduction in recharge, simulated water levels declined over most of the model area in Kalamazoo County; with an increase in pumping, water levels declined primarily near pumping centers. Because withdrawals by wells intercept water that would have discharged possibly to a stream or lake, model simulations indicated that streamflow was reduced with increased withdrawals. With withdrawal and consumption of water for irrigation, simulated water levels declined. Assuming a reduction in recharge due to urbanization, water levels declined and flow to streams was reduced based on steady-state simulation results. Transient results indicated a reduction of water levels with the simulated use of water for irrigation over the summer months. Generally the transient simulation with recharge only in the winter provided the best fit to observed water levels collected during synoptic water-level measurements in some wells and to the trends observed in water levels for other wells. Analysis of the regional hydrologic budgets provides an increased understanding of water movement within the ground-water-flow system in Kalamazoo County. Budgets for the steady-state simulations indicated that with reduced recharge, less water was available for streamflow and less water left the model area through the model boundaries. Similarly, with an increase in pumping rates, less water was available to enter streams and become streamflow. When recharge was assumed to remain constant and when it was allowed to vary throughout the year, the amount of water that entered storage was greater than that which left storage. However, when recharge was distributed through October?May only or when recharge rates were reduced from October to May, the amount of water that entered storage was less than that which left storage. Thus, on the basis of model simulations, with reduced recharge or increased withdrawals, water must come from storage, rivers, or from ground-flow-system boundaries to meet withdrawal demands.

Michigan↗
USGS2002

Evaluation of potential impacts on Great Lakes water resources based on climate scenarios of two GCMs

The results of general circulation model predictions of the effects of climate change from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (model CGCM1) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre (model HadCM2) have been used to derive potential impacts on the water resources of the Great Lakes basin. These impacts can influence the levels of the Great Lakes and the volumes of channel flow among them, thus affecting their value for interests such as riparians, shippers, recreational boaters, and natural ecosystems. On one hand, a hydrological modeling suite using input data from the CGCM1 predicts large drops in lake levels, up to a maximum of 1.38 m on Lakes Michigan and Huron by 2090. This is due to a combination of a decrease in precipitation and an increase in air temperature that leads to an increase in evaporation. On the other hand, using input from HadCM2, rises in lake levels are predicted, up to a maximum of 0.35 m on Lakes Michigan and Huron by 2090, due to increased precipitation and a reduced increase in air temperature. An interest satisfaction model shows sharp decreases in the satisfaction of the interests of commercial navigation, recreational boating, riparians, and hydropower due to lake level decreases. Most interest satisfaction scores are also reduced by lake level increases. Drastic reductions in ice cover also result from the temperature increases such that under the CGCM1 predictions, most of Lake Erie has 96% of its winters ice-free by 2090. Assessment is also made of impacts on the groundwater-dependent region of Lansing, Michigan.

Great Lakes basin↗