Geology topics

Carl Walters

Publications and source records attributed to Carl Walters.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2015

Surprise and opportunity for learning in Grand Canyon: the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program

With a focus on resources of the Colorado River ecosystem below Glen Canyon Dam, the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program has included a variety of experimental policy tests, ranging from manipulation of water releases from the dam to removal of non-native fish within Grand Canyon National Park. None of these field-scale experiments has yet produced unambiguous results in terms of management prescriptions. But there has been adaptive learning, mostly from unanticipated or surprising resource responses relative to predictions from ecosystem modeling. Surprise learning opportunities may often be viewed with dismay by some stakeholders who might not be clear about the purpose of science and modeling in adaptive management. However, the experimental results from the Glen Canyon Dam program actually represent scientific successes in terms of revealing new opportunities for developing better river management policies. A new long-term experimental management planning process for Glen Canyon Dam operations, started in 2011 by the U.S. Department of the Interior, provides an opportunity to refocus management objectives, identify and evaluate key uncertainties about the influence of dam releases, and refine monitoring for learning over the next several decades. Adaptive learning since 1995 is critical input to this long-term planning effort. Embracing uncertainty and surprise outcomes revealed by monitoring and ecosystem modeling will likely continue the advancement of resource objectives below the dam, and may also promote efficient learning in other complex programs.

Arizona, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS2013

An individual-based model for population viability analysis of humpback chub in Grand Canyon

We developed an individual-based population viability analysis model (females only) for evaluating risk to populations from catastrophic events or conservation and research actions. This model tracks attributes (size, weight, viability, etc.) for individual fish through time and then compiles this information to assess the extinction risk of the population across large numbers of simulation trials. Using a case history for the Little Colorado River population of Humpback Chub Gila cypha in Grand Canyon, Arizona, we assessed extinction risk and resiliency to a catastrophic event for this population and then assessed a series of conservation actions related to removing specific numbers of Humpback Chub at different sizes for conservation purposes, such as translocating individuals to establish other spawning populations or hatchery refuge development. Our results suggested that the Little Colorado River population is generally resilient to a single catastrophic event and also to removals of larvae and juveniles for conservation purposes, including translocations to establish new populations. Our results also suggested that translocation success is dependent on similar survival rates in receiving and donor streams and low emigration rates from recipient streams. In addition, translocating either large numbers of larvae or small numbers of large juveniles has generally an equal likelihood of successful population establishment at similar extinction risk levels to the Little Colorado River donor population. Our model created a transparent platform to consider extinction risk to populations from catastrophe or conservation actions and should prove useful to managers assessing these risks for endangered species such as Humpback Chub.

Arizona↗

USGS2011

Effects of fish size, habitat, flow, and density on capture probabilities of age-0 rainbow trout estimated from electrofishing at discrete sites in a large river

We estimated size-specific capture probabilities of age-0 rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in the Lee's Ferry Reach of the Colorado River, Arizona, by backpack and boat electrofishing at discrete shoreline sites using both depletion and mark-recapture experiments. Our objectives were to evaluate the feasibility of estimating capture probability for juvenile fish in larger rivers; to determine how it is influenced by fish size, habitat, flow, density, and recovery period; and to test population closure assumptions. There was no mortality among the 351 rainbow trout that were captured by electrofishing, marked, and held for 24 h. Of a total of 2,966 fish that were marked and released, only 0.61% were captured outside of mark-recapture sites, and total emigration from mark-recapture sites was 2.2-2.6%. These data strongly suggest that populations within discrete sites can be treated as effectively closed for the 24-h period between marking and recapture. Eighty percent of capture probability estimates from 66 depletion experiments and 42 mark-recapture experiments ranged from 0.28 to 0.75 and from 0.17 to 0.45, respectively, and the average coefficient of variation of estimates was 0.26. There was strong support for a fish size-capture probability relationship that accounted for the differences in vulnerability across habitat types. Smaller fish were less vulnerable in high-angle shorelines that were sampled by boat electrofishing. There was little support for capture probability models that accounted for within-day and across-month variation in flow. The effects of fish density on capture probability were challenging to discern, variable among habitat types and estimation methodologies, and confounded with the effect of fish size. As capture probability estimates were generally precise and the closure assumption was met, our results demonstrate that electrofishing-based mark-recapture experiments at discrete sites can be used to estimate the abundance of juvenile fish in large rivers.

Arizona↗