Geology topics

Carissa L. Wonkka

Publications and source records attributed to Carissa L. Wonkka.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Fueling the fire: Predicting cogongrass (Imperata cylindrica) impacts on fire behavior across environmental and seasonal gradients

Invasive species can fundamentally alter fire regimes by modifying fuel characteristics, yet predicting their impacts on fire behavior remains challenging. Cogongrass ( Imperata cylindrica ), a highly invasive grass spreading across the southeastern US, has been associated with increased fuel loads and fire intensity, but it is unclear how its impacts on fuel load and fire behavior vary across environmental and seasonal gradients. We measured fuel characteristics across 159 cogongrass invaded and non-invaded plots spanning from central Florida to southern Mississippi across multiple seasons. Using these data, we developed custom fuel models in BehavePlus to predict cogongrass effects on surface fire behavior and tree torching across spatial and temporal gradients. Cogongrass invasion increased live fuel loads by up to 1.96 t/ha, with effects strongest in summer and at lower latitudes, and dead fuel loads by up to 1.88 t/ha across all sites. Latitude × invasion interactions indicated that fuel load differences between invaded and non-invaded plots diminished toward northern sites. Cogongrass-driven fuel load alterations elevated surface fire rate of spread (median + 0.75 m/min), and flame length (+ 0.16 m), with the largest increases observed in spring (rate of spread: + 2.60 m/min; flame length: + 0.80 m). Invasion also consistently increased the crown fire transition probability, with magnitudes mirroring those of surface fire effects. Our findings highlight the potential for cogongrass to substantially alter fire behavior across a range of environmental conditions, although the magnitude of these effects varies geographically and tends to be strongest at lower latitudes. These results underscore the importance of targeted management in regional fire planning of invaded landscapes.

Alabama, Florida, Mississippi↗

USGS2024

Declining pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) population productivity caused by woody encroachment and oil and gas development

Conservation is increasingly focused on preventing losses in species’ populations before they occur. Tracking changes in demographic parameters that can impact a population’s resilience in response to drivers of global change can support early conservation efforts. We assessed trends in population productivity (late summer juveniles per 100 females) relative to drivers of global change in 40 pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ) herds across sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) steppe in Wyoming. Pronghorn are an iconic rangeland species that have been exposed to increasing levels of anthropogenic, climatic, and land-use change. Using data collected across the state of Wyoming, we (1) assessed long-term trends in population productivity, (2) identified patterns in large-scale drivers of global change (i.e., climate, land cover change) across pronghorn habitat, and (3) determined the relationship between drivers of global change and population productivity over a 35-year (1984–2019) period. While Wyoming hosts some of the most abundant populations of pronghorn in North America that have been largely stable in recent years, we found many herds are experiencing long-term declines in productivity. Long-term declines in productivity were associated with increases in oil and gas development and woody encroachment. Although increasing across almost all herd units, woody vegetation cover remains at low levels, suggesting that pre-emptive management may help to prevent losses in pronghorn populations.

Global Change and Ecology↗

USGS2018

The perpetual state of emergency that sacrifices protected areas in a changing climate

A modern challenge for conservation biology is to assess the consequences of policies that adhere to assumptions of stationarity (e.g. historic norms) in an era of global environmental change. Such policies may result in unexpected and surprising levels of mitigation given future climate change trajectories, especially as agriculture looks to protected areas to buffer against production losses during periods of environmental extremes. Here, we conduct a scenario impact assessment to determine the potential impact of climate change scenarios on the rates at which lands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands are authorized for emergency biomass removal. Grassland biomass on CRP lands is authorized for ‘emergency’ harvesting for agricultural use when precipitation for the last four months falls below 40 percent of the normal, or ‘historical’ mean, precipitation for that four-month period. We develop and analyze scenarios under the condition that policy will continue to operate under assumptions of stationarity, thereby authorizing emergency biomass harvesting solely as a function of precipitation departure from historic norms. Model projections show the historical likelihood of authorizing emergency biomass harvesting in any given year in the northern Great Plains was 33.28 ± 0.96%, according to long-term weather records. Emergency biomass harvesting became the norm (>50% of years) in the scenario reflecting continued increases in emissions and a decrease in growing season precipitation, and areas in the Great Plains with higher historical mean annual rainfall were disproportionately affected and experienced a greater increase in emergency biomass removal. Emergency biomass harvesting decreased only in the scenario reflecting rapid reductions in emissions. Our scenario impact analysis indicates that biomass from lands enrolled in the CRP will be used primarily as a buffer for agriculture in an era of climatic change, unless policy guidelines are adapted or climate change projections significantly depart from the current consensus.

Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyo↗

USGS2017

Regeneration and invasion of cottonwood riparian forest following wildfire

Populus deltoides is considered to be a weak resprouter and highly susceptible to wildfire, but few post-wildfire studies have tracked P. deltoides response and resprouting within the Great Plains of North America. Following a wildfire in southwestern Kansas, U.S.A., we surveyed burned and unburned areas of a cottonwood riparian forest along the Cimarron River that included a major understory invader, tamarisk ( Tamarix ramosissima Ledeb.). We tested the following hypotheses, which are consistent with the current understanding of P. deltoides response to wildfire in the Great Plains: (1) regeneration of P. deltoides will be low in areas burned by the wildfire; (2) the number of dead P. deltoides individuals will be greater in the wildfire than unburned areas; and (3) tamarisk regeneration will be higher than P. deltoides regeneration in the wildfire areas because tamarisk is considered a stronger resprouter. We found evidence contrary to two of our hypotheses 3 years following the wildfire. (1) P. deltoides regeneration was high following the wildfire, averaging 692 individuals/ha. (2) The number of dead mature cottonwood trees was greater in wildfire plots than in unburned plots. (3) There was more P. deltoides regeneration than tamarisk regeneration following wildfire. These findings, which diverge from the majority of studies examining P. deltoides regeneration in the Great Plains, suggest that differing local environmental and forest stand conditions, coupled with the timing and intensity of the fire, could be important determinants of riparian forest species' responses to wildfire.

Kansas↗