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Cameron L. Aldridge

Publications and source records attributed to Cameron L. Aldridge.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS2019

The importance of simulation assumptions when evaluating detectability in population models

Population monitoring is important for investigating a variety of ecological questions, and N-mixture models are increasingly used to model population size (N) and trends (lambda) while estimating detectability (p) from repeated counts within primary periods (when populations are closed to changes). Extending these models to dynamic processes with serial dependence across primary periods may relax the closure assumption, but simulations to evaluate models and inform effort (e.g., number of repeated counts) typically assume p is constant or random across sites and years. Thus, it is unknown how these models perform under scenarios where trends in p confound inferences on N and lambda, and conclusions regarding effort may be overoptimistic. Here, we used global positioning system (GPS) data from greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) to inform simulations of the detection process for lek counts of this species, and we created scenarios with and without linear annual trends in p. We then compared estimates of N and lambda from hierarchical population models either fit with single maximum counts or with detectability estimated from repeated counts (dynamic N-mixture models). We also explored using auxiliary data to correct counts for variation in detectability. Uncorrected count models consistently underestimated N by >50% whereas N-mixture models without auxiliary data underestimated N to a lesser degree due to unmodeled heterogeneity in p such as age. Nevertheless, estimates of lambda from both types of models were unbiased and similar for scenarios without trends in p. When p declined systematically across years, uncorrected count models underestimated lambda whereas N-mixture models estimated lambda with little bias when all sites were counted repeatedly. Auxiliary data also reduced bias in parameter estimates. Evaluating population models using scenarios with systematic variation in p may better reveal potential biases and inform effort than simulations that assume p is constant or random. Dynamic N-mixture models can distinguish between trends in p and N, but also require repeated counts within primary periods for accurate estimates. Auxiliary data may be useful when researchers lack repeated counts, wish to monitor more sites less intensively, or require unbiased estimates of N.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2019

Influences of potential oil and gas development and future climate on Sage-grouse declines and redistribution

Multiple environmental stressors impact wildlife populations, but we often know little about their cumulative and combined influences on population outcomes. We generally know more about past effects than potential future impacts, and direct influences such as changes of habitat footprints than indirect, long-term responses in behavior, distribution, or abundance. Yet, an understanding of all these components is needed to plan for future landscapes that include human activities and wildlife. We developed a case study to assess how spatially explicit individual-based modeling could be used to evaluate future population outcomes of gradual landscape change from multiple stressors. For Greater Sage-grouse in southwest Wyoming, USA, we projected oil and gas development footprints and climate-induced vegetation changes 50 years into the future. Using a time-series of planned oil and gas development and predicted climate-induced changes in vegetation, we recalculated habitat selection maps to dynamically modify future habitat quantity, quality, and configuration. We simulated long-term Sage-grouse responses to habitat change by allowing individuals to adjust to shifts in habitat availability and quality. The use of spatially explicit individual-based modeling offered a useful means of evaluating delayed indirect impacts of landscape change on wildlife population outcomes. The inclusion of movement and demographic responses to oil and gas infrastructure resulted in substantive changes in distribution and abundance when cumulated over several decades and throughout the regional population. When combined, additive development and climate-induced vegetation changes reduced abundance by up to half of the original size. In our example, the consideration of only a single population stressor the final possible population size by as much as 50%. Multiple stressors and their cumulative impacts need to be broadly considered through space and time to avoid underestimating the impacts of multiple gradual changes and overestimating the ability of populations to withstand change.

Wyoming↗
USGS2019

Signatures of adaptive divergence among populations of an avian species of conservation

Understanding the genetic underpinning of adaptive divergence among populations is a key goal of evolutionary biology and conservation. Gunnison sage‐grouse ( Centrocercus minimus ) is a sagebrush obligate species with a constricted range consisting of seven discrete populations, each with distinctly different habitat and climatic conditions. Though geographically close, populations have low levels of natural gene flow resulting in relatively high levels of differentiation. Here, we use 15,033 SNP loci in genomic outlier analyses, genotype–environment association analyses, and gene ontology enrichment tests to examine patterns of putatively adaptive genetic differentiation in an avian species of conservation concern. We found 411 loci within 5 kbp of 289 putative genes associated with biological functions or pathways that were overrepresented in the assemblage of outlier SNPs. The identified gene set was enriched for cytochrome P450 gene family members (CYP4V2, CYP2R1, CYP2C23B, CYP4B1) and could impact metabolism of plant secondary metabolites, a critical challenge for sagebrush obligates. Additionally, the gene set was also enriched with members potentially involved in antiviral response (DEAD box helicase gene family and SETX). Our results provide a first look at local adaption for isolated populations of a single species and suggest adaptive divergence in multiple metabolic and biochemical pathways may be occurring. This information can be useful in managing this species of conservation concern, for example, to identify unique populations to conserve, avoid translocation or release of individuals that may swamp locally adapted genetic diversity, or guide habitat restoration efforts.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗
USGS2019

Conservation genomics in the sagebrush sea: Population divergence, demographic history, and local adaptation in sage-grouse (Centrocercus spp.)

Sage-grouse are two closely related iconic species of the North American West, with historically broad distributions across sagebrush-steppe habitat. Both species are dietary specialists on sagebrush during winter, with presumed adaptations to tolerate the high concentrations of toxic secondary metabolites that function as plant chemical defenses. Marked range contraction and declining population sizes since European settlement have motivated efforts to identify distinct population genetic variation, particularly that which might be associated with local genetic adaptation and dietary specialization of sage-grouse. We assembled a reference genome and performed whole-genome sequencing across sage-grouse from six populations, encompassing both species and including several populations on the periphery of the species ranges. Population genomic analyses reaffirmed genome-wide differentiation between greater and Gunnison sage-grouse, revealed pronounced intraspecific population structure, and highlighted important differentiation of a small isolated population of greater sage-grouse in the northwest of the range. Patterns of genome-wide differentiation were largely consistent with a hypothesized role of genetic drift due to limited gene flow among populations. Inferred ancient population demography suggested persistent declines in effective population sizes that have likely contributed to differentiation within and among species. Several genomic regions with SNPs exhibiting extreme population differentiation were associated with candidate genes linked to metabolism of xenobiotic compounds. In vitro activity of enzymes isolated from sage-grouse livers supported a role for these genes in detoxification of sagebrush, suggesting that the observed interpopulation variation may underlie important local dietary adaptations, warranting close consideration for conservation strategies that link sage-grouse to the chemistry of local sagebrush.

Genome Biology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

Mismatches between breeding phenology and resource abundance of resident alpine ptarmigan negatively affect chick survival

1. Phenological mismatches – defined here as the difference in reproductive timing of an individual relative to the availability of its food resources – occur in many avian species. Mistiming breeding activities in environments with constrained breeding windows may have severe fitness costs due to reduced opportunities for repeated breeding attempts. Therefore, species occurring in alpine environments may be particularly vulnerable. 2. We studied fitness consequences of timing of breeding in an alpine-endemic species, the white-tailed ptarmigan ( Lagopus leucura ), to investigate its influence on chick survival. We estimated phenological mismatch by measuring plant and arthropods used by ptarmigan in relation to their timing of breeding. 3. We monitored 120 nests and 67 broods over a three-year period (2013–2015) at three alpine study sites in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. During this same period we actively monitored food resource abundance in brood-use areas to develop year and site specific resource phenology curves. We developed several mismatch indices from these curves that were then fit as covariates in mark-recapture chick survival models. 4. A correlation analysis between seasonal changes in arthropod and food plant abundance indicated that a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was likely the best predictor for food available to hens and chicks. A survival model that included an interaction between NDVI mismatch and chick age received strong support and indicated young chicks were more susceptible to mismatch than older chicks. 5. We provide evidence that individual females of a resident alpine species can be negatively affected by phenological mismatch. Our study focused on individual females and did not examine if phenological mismatch was present at the population level. Future work in animal populations occurring in mountain systems focusing on a combination of both individual- and population- level metrics of mismatch will be beneficial.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

Managing for multiple species: Greater sage‐grouse and sagebrush songbirds

Human activity has altered 33–50% of Earth's surface, including temperate grasslands and sagebrush rangelands, resulting in a loss of biodiversity. By promoting habitat for sensitive or wide‐ranging species, less exigent species may be protected in an umbrella effect. The greater sage‐grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; sage‐grouse) has been proposed as an umbrella for other sagebrush‐obligate species because it has an extensive range that overlaps with many other species, it is sensitive to anthropogenic activity, it requires resources over large landscapes, and its habitat needs are known. The efficacy of the umbrella concept, however, is often assumed and rarely tested. Therefore, we surveyed sage‐grouse pellet occurrence and sagebrush‐associated songbird abundance in northwest Colorado, USA, to determine the amount of habitat overlap between sage‐grouse and 4 songbirds (Brewer's sparrow [ Spizella breweri ], sage thrasher [ Oreoscoptes montanus ], sagebrush sparrow [ Artemisiospiza nevadensis ]), and green‐tailed towhee [ Pipilo chlorurus ]). During May and June 2013–2015, we conducted standard point count breeding surveys for songbirds and counted sage‐grouse pellets within 300 10‐m radius plots. We modeled songbird abundance and sage‐grouse pellet occurrence with multi‐scaled environmental features, such as sagebrush cover and bare ground. To evaluate sage‐grouse as an umbrella for sagebrush‐associated passerines, we determined the correlation between probability of sage‐grouse pellet occurrence and model‐predicted songbird densities per sampling plot. We then classified the sage‐grouse probability of occurrence as high (probability >0.5) and low (probability ≤0.5) and mapped model‐predicted surfaces for each species in our study area. We determined average songbird density in areas of high and low probability of sage‐grouse occurrence. Sagebrush cover at intermediate scales was an important predictor for all species, and ground cover was important for all species except sage thrashers. Areas with a higher probability of sage‐grouse occurrence also contained higher densities of Brewer's sparrows, green‐tailed towhees, and sage thrashers, but predicted sagebrush sparrow densities were lower in these areas. In northwest Colorado, sage‐grouse may be an effective umbrella for Brewer's sparrows, green‐tailed towhees, and sage thrashers, but sage‐grouse habitat does not appear to capture areas that support high sagebrush sparrow densities. A multi‐species focus may be the best management and conservation strategy for several species of concern, especially those with conflicting habitat requirements.

Colorado↗
USGS2019

The ecological uncertainty of wildfire fuel breaks: Examples from the sagebrush steppe

Fuel breaks are increasingly being implemented at broad scales (100s to 10,000s of square kilometers) in fire‐prone landscapes globally, yet there is little scientific information available regarding their ecological effects (eg habitat fragmentation). Fuel breaks are designed to reduce flammable vegetation (ie fuels), increase the safety and effectiveness of fire‐suppression operations, and ultimately decrease the extent of wildfire spread. In sagebrush ( Artemisia spp) ecosystems of the western US, installation of extensive linear fuel breaks is also intended to protect habitat, especially for the greater sage‐grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), a species that is sensitive to habitat fragmentation. We examine this apparent contradiction in the Great Basin region, where invasive annual grasses have increased wildfire activity and threaten sagebrush ecosystems. Given uncertain outcomes, we examine how implementation of fuel breaks might (1) directly alter ecosystems, (2) create edges and edge effects, (3) serve as vectors for wildlife movement and plant invasions, (4) fragment otherwise contiguous sagebrush landscapes, and (5) benefit from scientific investigation intended to disentangle their ecological costs and benefits.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗
USGS2019

Evaluation of genetic change from translocation among Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus) populations

Maintenance of genetic diversity is important for conserving species, especially those with fragmented habitats or ranges. In the absence of natural dispersal, translocation can be used to achieve this goal, although the success of translocation can be difficult to measure. Here we evaluate genetic change following translocation in Gunnison Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus minimus ), a species reduced to 7 discrete populations with low levels of gene flow and high levels of genetic differentiation. Between 2000 and 2014, 306 birds from the largest and most genetically diverse population (Gunnison Basin) were translocated to 5 much smaller satellite populations to augment local population size and increase genetic diversity. Although the magnitude of the effect varied by population, we found evidence of increased genetic variation, decreased genetic differentiation from Gunnison Basin, and reproduction between translocated individuals and resident birds. These results suggest that translocations are impacting satellite populations, with current data providing a new baseline for genetic diversity among populations of this imperiled species.

Colorado, Utah↗
USGS2019

Assessing lek attendance of male greater sage‐grouse using fine‐resolution GPS data: Implications for population monitoring of lek mating grouse

Counts of males displaying on breeding grounds are the primary management tool used to assess population trends in lekking grouse species. Despite the importance of male lek attendance (i.e., proportion of males on leks available for detection) influencing lek counts, patterns of within season and between season variability in attendance rates are not well understood. We used high‐frequency global positioning system (GPS) telemetry data from male greater sage‐grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus; n = 67) over five lekking seasons (2013–2017) at eight study sites in Nevada to estimate lek attendance rates. Specifically, we recorded daily locations of sage‐grouse in relation to mapped lek boundaries and used generalized additive models to assess temporal variation in attendance rates by age class (subadult vs. adult). Average timing of peak attendance occurred on 16 April but varied from March 16, 2014 to April 21 , 2016. Overall, adult males attended leks at higher rates (0.683 at peak) and earlier in the season (19 March) than subadults (0.421 at peak on April 19). Peak attendance probability was positively related to cumulative winter precipitation. Daily probabilities of lek switching differed between adults (0.019 at peak on March 3) and subadults (0.046 at peak on March 22), and lek switching was negatively related to distance to nearest lek. Our results indicate variable patterns in lek attendance through time, and that lek switching may occur at higher rates than previously thought. We demonstrate the use of generalizable daily attendance curves to date‐correct lek counts and derive estimates of male abundance, although such an approach will likely require the incorporation of information on age structure to produce robust results that are useful for population monitoring.

Nevada↗
USGS2019

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2017 annual report

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) was established in 2008 to address the scientific and conservation questions associated with land use changes because of energy development and other factors in southwest Wyoming. Over the past decade, partners from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), State and Federal land management agencies, universities, and the public have collaborated to implement a long-term (defined here as more than 10 years), science-based program that assesses and enhances the quality and quantity of wildlife habitats in this region while facilitating responsible development. The USGS Science Team completes scientific research and develops tools that inform and support WLCI partner planning, decision making, and on-the-ground management actions. In fiscal year 2017, USGS published 18 products (including peer-reviewed journal articles, USGS series publications, and data releases), prepared an additional 7 products for publication, and presented 14 talks or posters at professional scientific meetings in addition to numerous informal presentations to WLCI partners at meetings and workshops. In this report, we summarize the science themes that describe USGS science for the WLCI and highlight work completed in fiscal year 2017 for each science theme. We also provide information on how USGS science is being used by land managers to better achieve habitat conservation objectives.

Wyoming↗
USGS2018

Characterizing range-wide population divergence in an alpine-endemic bird: A comparison of genetic and genomic approaches

The delineation of intraspecific units that are evolutionarily and demographically distinct is an important step in the development of species-specific management plans. Neutral genetic variation has served as the primary data source for delineating “evolutionarily significant units,” but with recent advances in genomic technology, we now have an unprecedented ability to utilize information about neutral and adaptive variation across the entire genome. Here, we use traditional genetic markers (microsatellites) and a newer reduced-representation genomic approach (single nucleotide polymorphisms) to delineate distinct groups of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), an alpine-obligate species that is distributed in naturally fragmented habitats from Alaska to New Mexico. Five subspecies of white-tailed ptarmigan are currently recognized but their distinctiveness has not been verified with molecular data. Based on analyses of 436 samples at 12 microsatellite loci and 95 samples at 14,866 single nucleotide polymorphism loci, we provide strong support for treating two subspecies as distinct intraspecific units—L. l. altipetens, found in Colorado and neighboring states; and L. l. saxatilis, found on British Columbia’s Vancouver Island—but our findings reveal more moderate patterns of divergence within the remainder of the species’ range. Results based on genetic and genomic datasets generally agreed with one another, indicating that in many cases microsatellite loci may be sufficient for describing major patterns of genetic structure across species’ ranges. This work will inform future conservation and management decisions for the white-tailed ptarmigan, a species that may be vulnerable to future changes in climate.

Conservation Genetics↗
USGS2018

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2016 annual report

This is the ninth annual report highlighting U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science and decision-support activities conducted for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI). The activities address specific management needs identified by WLCI partner agencies. In fiscal year (FY) 2016, there were 26 active USGS WLCI science-based projects. Of these 26 projects, one project was new for FY2016, and three were completed by the end of the fiscal year (though final products were still in preparation or review). USGS WLCI projects were grouped under five categories: (1) Baseline Synthesis, (2) Long-Term Monitoring, (3) Effectiveness Monitoring, (4) Mechanistic Studies of Wildlife, and (5) Data and Information Management. Each of these topic areas is designed to address WLCI management needs: identifying key drivers of change, identifying the condition and distribution of key wildlife species and habitats and of species’ habitat requirements, development of an integrated inventory and monitoring strategy, use of emerging technologies and development and testing of innovative methods for maximizing the efficiency and efficacy of monitoring efforts, evaluating the effectiveness of habitat treatment projects, evaluating the responses of wildlife to development, and developing a data clearinghouse and information management framework to support and provide access to results of most USGS WLCI projects. In FY2016, we assisted with updating the WLCI Conservation Action Plan and associated databases as part of the Comprehensive Assessment, and we also assisted with the Bureau of Land Management 2015 WLCI annual report. By the end of FY2016, we completed or had nearly completed assessments of WLCI energy and mineral resources and had submitted a manuscript on modeled effects of oil and gas development on wildlife to a peer-reviewed journal. We also initiated a study on the effects of wind energy on wildlife in the WLCI region. A USGS circular on WLCI long-term monitoring was in review at the end of the fiscal year, and seven projects monitoring water and vegetation (including changes in sagebrush cover and patterns of sagebrush mortality) continued through the year. USGS scientists continued many projects in FY2016 that evaluate the effectiveness of habitat conservation actions (including sagebrush, cheatgrass, and aspen habitat treatments) and provide tools in support of mechanistic studies of wildlife. In FY2016, USGS scientists, along with university and State partners, continued work on five focal wildlife species/communities (pygmy rabbits [ Brachylagus idahoensis ], greater sage grouse , mule deer, sagebrush songbirds, and native fish). In FY2016, the USGS Information Management Team presented information to WLCI scientists on how USGS tools and resources can be used to fulfill the requirements of new USGS policies regarding data release, data management, and data visualization.

Wyoming↗
USGS2018

A conservation paradox in the Great Basin—Altering sagebrush landscapes with fuel breaks to reduce habitat loss from wildfire

Interactions between fire and nonnative, annual plant species (that is, “the grass/fire cycle”) represent one of the greatest threats to sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems and associated wildlife, including the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ). In 2015, U.S. Department of the Interior called for a “science-based strategy to reduce the threat of large-scale rangeland fire to habitat for the greater sage-grouse and the sagebrush-steppe ecosystem.” An associated guidance document, the “Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy Actionable Science Plan,” identified fuel breaks as high priority areas for scientific research. Fuel breaks are intended to reduce fire size and frequency, and potentially they can compartmentalize wildfire spatial distribution in a landscape. Fuel breaks are designed to reduce flame length, fireline intensity, and rates of fire spread in order to enhance firefighter access, improve response times, and provide safe and strategic anchor points for wildland fire-fighting activities. To accomplish these objectives, fuel breaks disrupt fuel continuity, reduce fuel accumulation, and (or) increase plants with high moisture content through the removal or modification of vegetation in strategically placed strips or blocks of land. Fuel breaks are being newly constructed, enhanced, or proposed across large areas of the Great Basin to reduce wildfire risk and to protect remaining sagebrush ecosystems (including greater sage-grouse habitat). These projects are likely to result in thousands of linear miles of fuel breaks that will have direct ecological effects across hundreds of thousands of acres through habitat loss and conversion. These projects may also affect millions of acres indirectly because of edge effects and habitat fragmentation created by networks of fuel breaks. Hence, land managers are often faced with a potentially paradoxical situation: the need to substantially alter sagebrush habitats with fuel breaks to ultimately reduce a greater threat of their destruction from wildfire. However, there is relatively little published science that directly addresses the ability of fuel breaks to influence fire behavior in dryland landscapes or that addresses the potential ecological effects of the construction and maintenance of fuel breaks on sagebrush ecosystems and associated wildlife species. This report is intended to provide an initial assessment of both the potential effectiveness of fuel breaks and their ecological costs and benefits. To provide this assessment, we examined prior studies on fuel breaks and other scientific evidence to address three crucial questions: (1) How effective are fuel breaks in reducing or slowing the spread of wildfire in arid and semi-arid shrubland ecosystems? (2) How do fuel breaks affect sagebrush plant communities? (3) What are the effects of fuel breaks on the greater sage-grouse, other sagebrush obligates, and sagebrush-associated wildlife species? We also provide an overview of recent federal policies and management directives aimed at protecting remaining sagebrush and greater sage-grouse habitat; describe the fuel conditions, fire behavior, and fire trends in the Great Basin; and suggest how scientific inquiry and management actions can improve our understanding of fuel breaks and their effects in sagebrush landscapes.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2018

Greater sage-grouse science (2015–17)—Synthesis and potential management implications

Executive Summary The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter called “sage-grouse”), a species that requires sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), has experienced range-wide declines in its distribution and abundance. These declines have prompted substantial research and management investments to improve the understanding of sage-grouse and its habitats and reverse declines in distribution and population numbers. Over the past two decades, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) has responded to eight petitions to list the sage-grouse under the Endangered Species Act of 1973, with the completion of the most recent listing determination in September 2015. At that time, the USFWS determined that the sage-grouse did not warrant a listing, primarily because of the large scale science-based conservation and planning efforts completed or started by Federal, State, local agencies, private landowners, and other entities across the range. The planning efforts culminated in the development of the 2015 Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and U.S. Forest Service Land Use Plan Amendments, which provided regulatory certainty and commitment from Federal land-management agencies to limit, mitigate, and track anthropogenic disturbance and implement other sage-grouse conservation measures. After these policy decisions, the scientific community has continued to refine and expand the knowledge available to inform implementation of management actions, increase the efficiency and effectiveness of those actions, and continue developing an overall understanding of sage-grouse populations, habitat requirements, and their response to human activity and other habitat changes. The development of science has been driven by multiple prioritization documents including the “Greater Sage-Grouse National Research Strategy” (Hanser and Manier, 2013) and, most recently, the “Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy Actionable Science Plan” (Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy Actionable Science Plan Team, 2016). In October 2017, after a review of the 2015 Federal plans relative to State sage-grouse plans, in accordance with Secretarial Order 3353, the BLM issued a notice of intent to consider whether to amend some, all, or none of the 2015 land use plans. At that time, the BLM requested the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to inform this effort through the development of an annotated bibliography of sage-grouse science published since January 2015 and a report that synthesized and outlined the potential management implications of this new science. Development of the annotated bibliography resulted in the identification and summarization of 169 peer-reviewed scientific publications and reports. The USGS then convened an interagency team (hereafter referred to as the “team”) to develop this report that focuses on the primary topics of importance to the ongoing management of sage-grouse and their habitats. The team developed this report in a three-step process. First, the team identified six primary topic areas for discussion based on the members’ collective knowledge regarding sage-grouse, their habitats, and threats to either or both. Second, the team reviewed all the material in the “Annotated Bibliography of Scientific Research on Greater Sage-Grouse Published since January 2015” to identify the science that addressed the topics. Third, team members discussed the science related to each topic, evaluated the consistency of the science with existing knowledge before 2015, and summarized the potential management implications of this science. The six primary topics identified by the team were: Multiscale habitat suitability and mapping tools Discrete anthropogenic activities Diffuse activities Fire and invasive species Restoration effectiveness Population estimation and genetics

Open-File Report↗
USGS2017

Greater sage-grouse population trends across Wyoming

The scale at which analyses are performed can have an effect on model results and often one scale does not accurately describe the ecological phenomena of interest (e.g., population trends) for wide-ranging species: yet, most ecological studies are performed at a single, arbitrary scale. To best determine local and regional trends for greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) in Wyoming, USA, we modeled density-independent and -dependent population growth across multiple spatial scales relevant to management and conservation (Core Areas [habitat encompassing approximately 83% of the sage-grouse population on ∼24% of surface area in Wyoming], local Working Groups [7 regional areas for which groups of local experts are tasked with implementing Wyoming's statewide sage-grouse conservation plan at the local level], Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) by Working Groups, and Core Areas by Working Groups). Our goal was to determine the influence of fine-scale population trends (Core Areas) on larger-scale populations (Working Group Areas). We modeled the natural log of change in population size ( peak M lek counts) by time to calculate the finite rate of population growth ( λ ) for each population of interest from 1993 to 2015. We found that in general when Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) was investigated by Working Group Area, the 2 populations trended similarly and agreed with the overall trend of the Working Group Area. However, at the finer scale where Core Areas were analyzed separately, Core Areas within the same Working Group Area often trended differently and a few large Core Areas could influence the overall Working Group Area trend and mask trends occurring in smaller Core Areas. Relatively close fine-scale populations of sage-grouse can trend differently, indicating that large-scale trends may not accurately depict what is occurring across the landscape (e.g., local effects of gas and oil fields may be masked by increasing larger populations).

Wyoming↗
USGS2017

Multi-model comparison highlights consistency in predicted effect of warming on a semi-arid shrub

A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance, and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi-model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species. To evaluate the climate sensitivity of A. tridentata , we developed four predictive models, two based on empirically derived spatial and temporal relationships, and two that applied mechanistic approaches to simulate sagebrush recruitment and growth. This approach enabled us to produce an aggregate index of climate change vulnerability and uncertainty based on the level of agreement between models. Despite large differences in model structure, predictions of sagebrush response to climate change were largely consistent. Performance, as measured by change in cover, growth, or recruitment, was predicted to decrease at the warmest sites, but increase throughout the cooler portions of sagebrush's range. A sensitivity analysis indicated that sagebrush performance responds more strongly to changes in temperature than precipitation. Most of the uncertainty in model predictions reflected variation among the ecological models, raising questions about the reliability of forecasts based on a single modeling approach. Our results highlight the value of a multi-model approach in forecasting climate change impacts and uncertainties and should help land managers to maximize the value of conservation investments.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2017

Hierarchical population monitoring of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) in Nevada and California—Identifying populations for management at the appropriate spatial scale

Population ecologists have long recognized the importance of ecological scale in understanding processes that guide observed demographic patterns for wildlife species. However, directly incorporating spatial and temporal scale into monitoring strategies that detect whether trajectories are driven by local or regional factors is challenging and rarely implemented. Identifying the appropriate scale is critical to the development of management actions that can attenuate or reverse population declines. We describe a novel example of a monitoring framework for estimating annual rates of population change for greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) within a hierarchical and spatially nested structure. Specifically, we conducted Bayesian analyses on a 17-year dataset (2000–2016) of lek counts in Nevada and northeastern California to estimate annual rates of population change, and compared trends across nested spatial scales. We identified leks and larger scale populations in immediate need of management, based on the occurrence of two criteria: (1) crossing of a destabilizing threshold designed to identify significant rates of population decline at a particular nested scale; and (2) crossing of decoupling thresholds designed to identify rates of population decline at smaller scales that decouple from rates of population change at a larger spatial scale. This approach establishes how declines affected by local disturbances can be separated from those operating at larger scales (for example, broad-scale wildfire and region-wide drought). Given the threshold output from our analysis, this adaptive management framework can be implemented readily and annually to facilitate responsive and effective actions for sage-grouse populations in the Great Basin. The rules of the framework can also be modified to identify populations responding positively to management action or demonstrating strong resilience to disturbance. Similar hierarchical approaches might be beneficial for other species occupying landscapes with heterogeneous disturbance and climatic regimes.

California, Nevada↗