Geology topics

Cameron L. Aldridge

Publications and source records attributed to Cameron L. Aldridge.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

USGS2023

Dynamic spatiotemporal modeling of a habitat-defining plant species to support wildlife management at regional scales

Sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems provide critical habitat for the Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), a species of conservation concern. Thus, future loss of sagebrush habitat because of land use change and global climate change is of concern. Here, we use a dynamic additive spatiotemporal model to estimate the effects of climate on sagebrush cover dynamics at 32 sage-grouse management (core) areas in Wyoming. We use the fitted models to quantify the sensitivity of each management area to precipitation and temperature, and to make probabilistic projections of sagebrush cover from present to 2100 under three climate change scenarios. Global circulation models predict an increase in temperature and no change in precipitation for Wyoming. Sensitivity to climate varied among management areas, but the most common response (70% of management areas) was a positive effect of temperature on sagebrush performance. The combination of positive sensitivity to temperature and the predicted increase in temperature under all climate change scenarios resulted in projections of increased sagebrush cover for most management areas. We characterized management areas as “optimal” or “suboptimal” based on the percentage of grid cells in each management area with sagebrush cover exceeding a nesting habitat target value. Only 18% of management areas are projected to switch from being currently optimal to suboptimal in the future. Thirty-five percent of management areas are projected to switch from being suboptimal to optimal. The most common outcome (47%) was for currently suboptimal management areas to remain suboptimal, even though average cover tended to increase in those areas. The direct effects of climate change appear to favor sagebrush performance in the future for most sage-grouse core areas in Wyoming. Our approach is broadly applicable to quantitative climate change assessments where remotely sensed estimates of habitat-defining vegetation are available.

Wyoming↗

USGS2023

Temporal patterns of structural sagebrush connectivity from 1985 to 2020

The sagebrush biome within the western United States has been reshaped by disturbances, management, and changing environmental conditions. As a result, sagebrush cover and configuration have varied over space and time, influencing processes and species that rely on contiguous, connected sagebrush. Previous studies have documented changes in sagebrush cover, but we know little about how the connectivity of sagebrush has changed over time and across the sagebrush biome. We investigated temporal connectivity patterns for sagebrush using a time series (1985–2020) of fractional sagebrush cover and used an omnidirectional circuit algorithm to assess the density of connections among areas with abundant sagebrush. By comparing connectivity patterns over time, we found that most of the biome experienced moderate change; the amount and type of change varied spatially, indicating that areas differ in the trend direction and magnitude of change. Two different types of designated areas of conservation and management interest had relatively high proportions of stable, high-connectivity patterns over time and stable connectivity trends on average. These results provide ecological information on sagebrush connectivity persistence across spatial and temporal scales that can support targeted actions to address changing structural connectivity and to maintain functioning, connected ecosystems.

Western United States↗

USGS2023

Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2022

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) are at the center of state and national land-use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population trend analysis provides state and federal land and wildlife managers with best-available science to help guide current management and conservation plans aimed at benefitting sage-grouse populations. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021, 2022a) and incorporated population lek count data through 2022. Bayesian state-space models estimated 2.9 percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations across their geographical range, which varied among subpopulations at the largest scale of analysis, termed climate clusters (2.2–4.7). Cumulative declines were 40.9, 65.0, and 79.6 percent range-wide across short (19 years), medium (35 years), and long (55 years) temporal periods, respectively. These results indicate that the most recent nadir for range-wide populations occurred during 2021. However, growth during 2022 was modest, making 2021 a tentative final nadir at this point.

Data Report↗

USGS2023

Using neutral landscape models to evaluate the umbrella species concept in an ecotone

Context Steep declines in North American rangeland biodiversity have prompted researchers and managers to use umbrella species as a tool to manage diverse suites of co-occurring wildlife, but efficacy of this method has been variable. Evaluation of prairie and shrubland grouse as umbrellas is typically restricted to observed overlap between umbrella and background species, but this approach does not distinguish between overlap due to ubiquity or niche overlap. Objectives We demonstrate a novel application of neutral landscape models (NLMs) to test the effectiveness of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) as an umbrella species for grassland songbirds at a grassland-sagebrush ecotone in northeastern Wyoming, USA. Methods We leveraged existing spatial data representing sage-grouse habitat in two distinct seasons (nesting and late brood-rearing) and density and distribution of eight grassland songbirds. We applied a permutation-based analysis using NLMs to determine whether overlap between background species and greater sage-grouse was greater than expected by chance. Results Three species (western meadowlark Sturnella neglecta , loggerhead shrike Lanius ludovicianus , and lark bunting Calamospiza melanocorys ) had greater overlap than expected with at least one type of greater sage-grouse habitat, while western kingbirds ( Tyrannus verticalis ) indicated avoidance of all sage-grouse habitat assessed. Conclusions NLMs provided a more nuanced evaluation of the umbrella species concept than previously available and allowed us to differentiate between overlap due to ubiquity (e.g., vesper sparrow; Pooecetes gramineus ) rather than overlap in habitat use. All grassland passerine species with greater than expected overlap with sage-grouse habitat either nest in sagebrush (loggerhead shrike) or often select nest locations underneath small shrubs (western meadowlark, lark bunting). These results indicate that nesting substrate is a potential niche axis to consider when evaluating the umbrella species concept, especially within sagebrush-grassland ecotones.

Wyoming↗

USGS2023

A genetic warning system for a hierarchically structured wildlife monitoring framework

Genetic variation is a well-known indicator of population fitness yet is not typically included in monitoring programs for sensitive species. Additionally, most programs monitor populations at one scale, which can lead to potential mismatches with ecological processes critical to species' conservation. Recently developed methods generating hierarchically nested population units (i.e., clusters of varying scales) for greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) have identified population trend declines across spatiotemporal scales to help managers target areas for conservation. The same clusters used as a proxy for spatial scale can alert managers to local units (i.e., neighborhood-scale) with low genetic diversity, further facilitating identification of management targets. We developed a genetic warning system utilizing previously developed hierarchical population units to identify management-relevant areas with low genetic diversity within the greater sage-grouse range. Within this warning system we characterized conservation concern thresholds based on values of genetic diversity and developed a statistical model for microsatellite data to robustly estimate these values for hierarchically nested populations. We found that 41 of 224 neighborhood-scale clusters had low genetic diversity, 23 of which were coupled with documented local population trend decline. We also found evidence of cross-scale low genetic diversity in the small and isolated Washington population, unlikely to be reversed through typical local management actions alone. The combination of low genetic diversity and a declining population suggests relatively high conservation concern. Our findings could further facilitate conservation action prioritization in combination with population trend assessments and (or) local information, and act as a base-line of genetic diversity for future comparison. Importantly, the approach we used is broadly applicable across taxa.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2023

A hidden cost of single species management: Habitat-relationships reveal potential negative effects of conifer removal on a non-target species

Land management priorities and decisions may result in population declines for non-target wildlife species. In the western United States, large-scale removal of conifer from sagebrush ecosystems ( Artemisia spp.) is occurring to recover greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) populations and may result in pinyon jay ( Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus ) habitat loss. Jay populations have experienced long-term declines, due to unknown causes, resulting in a recent petition for listing under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model of jay abundance, using 13 years of point count data (2008–2020) collected across the western United States, to estimate regional population trends, model habitat requirements, assess conifer removal effects on jays, and generate hypotheses regarding jay population declines. Our model included climate and landcover covariates and regional trends in pinyon jay density. We applied our modeled habitat relationships to map predicted pinyon jay density, given 2008 and 2020 resource conditions, and map density changes from 2008 to 2020. Our results indicate pinyon jay populations are declining within Bird Conservation Region 16. Jay density was positively associated with sagebrush cover, Palmer Drought Severity Index, and pinyon-juniper cover. Conversely, jay populations were negatively associated with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We found higher pinyon jay densities within locations possessing both sagebrush and pinyon-juniper cover; conditions characteristic of phase I and II conifer encroachment which are preferentially targeted for conifer removal to restore sagebrush communities. Conifer removal, if conducted at locations with high pinyon jay densities, is therefore likely to negatively affect jay abundance.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Mont↗

USGS2023

A targeted annual warning system developed for the conservation of a sagebrush indicator species

A fundamental goal of population ecologists is to identify drivers responsible for temporal variation in abundance. Understanding whether variation is associated with environmental stochasticity or anthropogenic disturbances, which are more amenable to management action, is crucial yet difficult to achieve. Here, we present a hierarchical monitoring framework that models rates of change in abundance from spatially structured populations and identifies when local declines fall out of synchrony with trends at larger spatial scales. Importantly, the framework provides signals that alert managers to the categorical significance of observed declines while avoiding signals where declines result from drivers operating at larger spatial scales (e.g., periodic reductions in primary productivity owing to drought). We demonstrate utility through application to a rapidly declining sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) indicator species (greater sage-grouse; Centrocercus urophasianus ) using 30 years (1990–2019) of count data collected from greater than 4,400 leks (habitual breeding sites) distributed across the western United States. Results revealed population declines, immediately preceding triggers (2–4-year period), ranging between 58 and 68%. Conversely, population trends unassociated with triggers showed little-to-no sign of decline. Retrospective application of the monitoring framework indicated an average annual rate of 1.7% of leks or 1.3% of neighborhood clusters (lek aggregations) would have required management intervention to reverse range-wide declines and stabilize the U.S. population as a whole.

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2023

Using state-and-transition simulation models to scope post-fire success in restoring greater sage-grouse habitat

Wildfires are increasingly modifying wildlife habitat in the western United States and managers need ways to scope the pace and degree to which post-fire restoration actions can re-create habitat in dynamic landscapes. We developed a spatially explicit state-transition simulation model (STSM) to project post-fire revegetation and the potential for sage-grouse habitat restoration in sagebrush ecosystems. The model included annual fires, annual grass invasion, conifer encroachment, and projected annual vegetation growth caused by natural regeneration as well as sagebrush seeding and planting. We cross-referenced resulting vegetation maps with greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) habitat needs and evaluated trajectories of potential habitat at three Priority Areas for Conservation in the Great Basin. We compared outcomes among different types of revegetation actions (natural regeneration, seeding, planting), treatment durations, and treatment area sizes. In all scenarios, sagebrush cover was generally insufficient to meet sage-grouse needs for at least a decade post-fire, and the best habitat classes declined or remained at low proportions of landscapes for >50 years post-fire. Under current fire patterns, the pace of habitat restoration is likely to lag behind losses from wildfires. Our results indicate additional efforts beyond sagebrush revegetation actions (e.g., fire suppression, invasive grass treatment) will likely be necessary to maintain and restore areas to meet sage-grouse habitat needs in burned landscapes. Our results also underscore the need for broad-scale habitat restoration strategies that expand the ability to reestablish sagebrush in large, burned areas, as well as strategies for defining which areas should be prioritized for revegetation within the biome. Our landscape models and resulting vegetation maps can be integrated with other restoration prioritization or wildlife monitoring tools that support land manager decision-making. By gauging potential benefits of restoration decisions, our approach can provide information to aid choices on where to invest time, money, and effort and how best to mitigate losses and plan long-term restoration and recovery for landscapes across the sagebrush biome.

Great Basin↗

USGS2023

A regionally varying habitat model to inform management for greater sage-grouse persistence across their range

Identifying habitat needs for species with large distributions is challenging because species-habitat associations may vary across scales and regions (spatial nonstationarity). Furthermore, management efforts often cross jurisdictional boundaries, complicating the development of cohesive conservation strategies among management entities. The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) is a rapidly declining species that spans 11 U.S. states and responds to habitat conditions across a wide range of spatial scales and regions. Allowing for regional variance in species-habitat associations and suitability predictions could systematically identify important habitats at levels relevant to management. We collaboratively developed a model with Bureau of Land Management (BLM) biologists that: (1) evaluated the scale of effect for different environmental covariates; (2) accounted for regional differences in population-level responses; and (3) predicted probabilities of persistence across the U.S. occupied range. We modeled range-wide lek persistence data (6615 communal breeding sites classified as active or inactive) as a function of environmental covariates. Environmental covariates included sagebrush cover, pinyon-juniper cover, topography, precipitation, point and line disturbance densities, and landscape configuration metrics. Our model treated habitat assessment areas – regionally delineated by BLM biologists – as random intercepts and slopes that allowed for geographic variation in species-habitat associations and predicted probabilities of lek persistence. Our final model indicated support for 12 environmental covariates predicting lek persistence at scales extending between 1- to 15-km radii from lek centers, and a covariate measuring distance to the occupied range boundary. Five of these covariates showed significant regionally varying responses: sagebrush clumpiness (a measure of habitat aggregation), pinyon-juniper cover, point disturbance of anthropogenic features such as energy infrastructure and communication towers, elevation, and a topographic index associated with mesic habitats. This spatial nonstationarity indicates unitary range-wide recommendations, or rules-of-thumb with respect to their effects on lek persistence, may be problematic for these environmental conditions. For covariates that did not include random slopes, and which were potentially amenable to management actions, we found that leks were predicted to become extirpated when sagebrush cover fell below 9.6 % (summarized at the 3.2-km radius extent), and the proportion of classified sagebrush habitat fell below 0.7 (1-km). We produced a continuous predictive probability surface of lek persistence which we binned based on model sensitivity thresholds to produce habitat quality categories. The highest quality habitat (capturing 50 % of active leks) covered 25.5 % of the occupied range, while the combined lowest through highest quality habitats (capturing 95 % of active leks) covered 65.0 %. Accommodating regional environmental differences in models that are relevant to habitat management planning will help ensure their applicability to targeted goals. Continuous collaboration between modelers and land managers early in the modeling process increases the likelihood of this outcome.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2023

A retrospective assessment of fuel break effectiveness for containing rangeland wildfires in the sagebrush biome

Escalated wildfire activity within the western U.S. has widespread societal impacts and long-term consequences for the imperiled sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) biome. Shifts from historical fire regimes and the interplay between frequent disturbance and invasive annual grasses may initiate permanent state transitions as wildfire frequency outpaces sagebrush communities’ innate capacity to recover. Therefore, wildfire management is at the core of conservation plans for sagebrush ecosystems, especially critical habitat for species of conservation concern such as the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter sage-grouse). Fuel breaks help facilitate wildfire suppression by modifying behavior through fuels modification and allowing safe access points for containment by firefighters. The Bureau of Land Management has proposed to roughly double the existing fuel break network in the western U.S., centered on the Great Basin. To our knowledge, no broad-scale examination of fuel break effectiveness or the environmental conditions under which fuel breaks are expected to be most effective has been conducted. We performed a retrospective assessment of probability of fuel break contributing to wildfire containment on recorded wildfire and fuel break interactions from 1985 to 2018 within the western U.S. We characterized environmental, fuels, and weather conditions within 500 m of wildfire contact, and within 5 km of the approaching wildfire. We used a binomial mixed model within a Bayesian framework to identify relationships between these variables and fuel break success. Fuel breaks were least successful in areas classified as having low resilience to disturbance and low resistance to invasion, in areas composed of primarily woody fuels, and when operating in high temperature and low precipitation conditions. Fuel breaks were most effective in areas where fine fuels dominated and in areas that were readily accessible. Maintenance history and fuel break type also contributed to the probability of containment. Overall results indicate a complex and sometimes paradoxical relationship between landscape characteristics that promote wildfire spread and those that impact fuel break effectiveness. Finally, we developed predictive maps of fuel break effectiveness by fuel break type to further elucidate these complex relationships and to inform urgently needed fuel break placement and maintenance priorities across the sagebrush biome.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2022

Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2021

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) are at the center of state and national land use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population trend analysis provides state and federal land and wildlife managers with best-available science to help guide current management and conservation plans aimed at benefitting sage-grouse populations. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021) and includes the addition of three analytical updates: (1) identification of population nadirs (lowest points within cycles) at the lek (breeding ground) and neighborhood cluster (group of leks) spatial scales, (2) truncation of prior distributions on rate of change in apparent abundance values to more realistic boundaries for leks with missing data, and (3) addition of 2 years of population lek count data (2020 and 2021) to the current dataset (1953–2021). Bayesian state-space models estimated 2.9 percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations across their geographical range, which varied among subpopulations at the largest scale of analysis, termed climate clusters (2.2–4.6). Cumulative declines were 42.5, 65.6, and 80.1 percent range-wide across short (19 years), medium (35 years), and long (55 years) temporal periods, respectively. These results indicate that range-wide populations continued to decline during 2020 and 2021, although two climate clusters (eastern area and Bi-State area) have shown growth in population abundance in recent years, indicating they have surpassed a recent population abundance nadir.

Data Report↗

USGS2022

Spatial scale selection for informing species conservation in a changing landscape

Identifying the relevant spatial scale at which species respond to features in a landscape (scale of effect) is a pressing research need as managers work to reduce biodiversity loss amid a variety of environmental challenges. Until recently, researchers often evaluated a subset of potential scales of effect inferred from previous studies in other locations, often based on different biological responses and environmental variables. These approaches, however, can create uncertainty as to whether relevant spatial scales were identified, and whether the effects of environmental variables at scale were accurately estimated. Identifying scales of effect is particularly relevant for the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), a sagebrush-obligate species of conservation concern requiring large areas of intact sagebrush cover ( Artemisia spp.) for habitat. We demonstrate the application of a scale selection approach that jointly estimates the scale of effect and the effect of sagebrush cover on trends in population size using counts from 584 sage-grouse leks in southwestern Wyoming (2003–2019) and annual estimates of sagebrush cover from a remote sensing product. From this approach, we estimated a positive effect of mean sagebrush cover with a 95% probability that the scale of effect occurred within 5.02 km of leks. In an average year, we found that lower levels of sagebrush cover within these estimated scales could support increasing trends in sage-grouse population size when populations were small, but higher levels of sagebrush cover were needed to sustain growing populations when populations were larger. With standardized monitoring and annual estimates of vegetation from remote sensing, this scale selection approach can be applied to identify relevant scales for other populations, species, and biological responses such as demography and movement.

Wyoming↗

USGS2022

Defining biologically relevant and hierarchically nested population units to inform wildlife management

Wildlife populations are increasingly affected by natural and anthropogenic changes that negatively alter biotic and abiotic processes at multiple spatiotemporal scales and therefore require increased wildlife management and conservation efforts. However, wildlife management boundaries frequently lack biological context and mechanisms to assess demographic data across the multiple spatiotemporal scales influencing populations. To address these limitations, we developed a novel approach to define biologically relevant subpopulations of hierarchically nested population levels that could facilitate managing and conserving wildlife populations and habitats. Our approach relied on the Spatial “K”luster Analysis by Tree Edge Removal clustering algorithm, which we applied in an agglomerative manner (bottom-to-top). We modified the clustering algorithm using a workflow and population structure tiers from least-cost paths, which captured biological inferences of habitat conditions (functional connectivity), dispersal capabilities (potential connectivity), genetic information, and functional processes affecting movements. The approach uniquely included context of habitat resources (biotic and abiotic) summarized at multiple spatial scales surrounding locations with breeding site fidelity and constraint-based rules (number of sites grouped and population structure tiers). We applied our approach to greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), a species of conservation concern, across their range within the western United States. This case study produced 13 hierarchically nested population levels (akin to cluster levels, each representing a collection of subpopulations of an increasing number of breeding sites). These closely approximated population closure at finer ecological scales (smaller subpopulation extents with fewer breeding sites; cluster levels ≥2), where >92% of individual sage-grouse's time occurred within their home cluster. With available population monitoring data, our approaches can support the investigation of factors affecting population dynamics at multiple scales and assist managers with making informed, targeted, and cost-effective decisions within an adaptive management framework. Importantly, our approach provides the flexibility of including species-relevant context, thereby supporting other wildlife characterized by site fidelity.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2022

Potential cheatgrass abundance within lightly invaded areas of the Great Basin

Context Anticipating where an invasive species could become abundant can help guide prevention and control efforts aimed at reducing invasion impacts. Information on potential abundance can be combined with information on the current status of an invasion to guide management towards currently uninvaded locations where the threat of invasion is high. Objectives We aimed to support management by developing predictive maps of potential cover for cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ), a problematic invader that can transform plant communities. We integrated our predictions of potential abundance with mapped estimates of current cover to quantify invasion potential within lightly invaded areas. Methods We used quantile regression to model cheatgrass abundance as a function of climate, weather, and disturbance, treating outputs as low to high invasion scenarios. We developed a species-specific set of covariates and validated model performance using spatially and temporally independent data. Results Potential cheatgrass abundance was higher in areas that had burned, at low elevations, and when fall germination conditions were more favorable. Our results highlight the extensive areas across the Great Basin where cheatgrass abundance could increase to levels that can alter fire behavior and cause other ecological impacts. Conclusions We predict potential cheatgrass abundance to quantify relative invasion risk. Our model results provide high and low scenarios of cheatgrass abundance to guide resource allocation and planning efforts across shrubland ecosystems of the Great Basin that remain relatively uninvaded. Combining information on an invasive species’ current and potential abundance can yield spatial predictions to guide resource allocation and management action.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2022

Prairie grouse and wind energy: The state of the science and implications for risk assessment

How to shape the anticipated build-out of industrial-scale renewable energy in a way that minimizes risk to wildlife remains contentious. This challenge is well-illustrated in the grasslands and shrub-steppe of North America. Here, several endemic species of grouse are the focus of intensive, long-term conservation action by a host of governmental and non-governmental entities, many of whom are now asking: will anticipated increases in the number of wind-energy facilities exacerbate declines or prevent recovery of these species? To help answer this question, we synthesized the potential consequences of wind-energy development on prairie grouse. Published literature on behavior or demography of prairie-grouse at wind-energy facilities is sparse, with studies having been conducted at only 5 different facilities in the United States. Only two of these studies met the standard for robust impact analysis by collecting pre-construction data and using control sites or gradient designs. Published results from only one of the species Greater Prairie-Chicken were available for >1 facility. Most studies also drew conclusions based on short (<4 years) periods of study, which is potentially problematic when studying these highly philopatric species. Given these caveats, we found that, in the short-term, adult survival and nest success appear largely unaffected in populations exposed to wind-energy facilities. However, changes in habitat use by female Greater Sage-Grouse and female Greater Prairie-Chicken during some seasons and reduced lek persistence among male Greater Prairie-Chickens near wind turbines suggest behavioral responses that may have demographic consequences. Prairie grouse can coexist with wind-energy facilities in some cases, at least in the short term, but important uncertainties remain, including the potential for long-term, cumulative effects of the extensive development expected as states attempt to meet goals for generating electricity from renewable sources.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2022

Targeting sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) restoration following wildfire with Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) nest selection and survival models

Unprecedented conservation efforts for sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems across the western United States have been catalyzed by risks from escalated wildfire activity that reduces habitat for sagebrush-obligate species such as Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ). However, post-fire restoration is challenged by spatial variation in ecosystem processes influencing resilience to disturbance and resistance to non-native invasive species, and spatial and temporal lags between slower sagebrush recovery processes and faster demographic responses of sage-grouse to loss of important habitat. Decision-support frameworks that account for these factors can help users strategically apply restoration efforts by predicting short and long-term ecological benefits of actions. Here, we developed a framework that strategically targets burned areas for restoration actions (e.g., seeding or planting sagebrush) that have the greatest potential to positively benefit sage-grouse populations through time. Specifically, we estimated sagebrush recovery following wildfire and risk of non-native annual grass invasion under four scenarios: passive recovery, grazing exclusion, active restoration with seeding, and active restoration with seedling transplants. We then applied spatial predictions of integrated nest site selection and survival models before wildfire, immediately following wildfire, and at 30 and 50 years post-wildfire based on each restoration scenario and measured changes in habitat. Application of this framework coupled with strategic planting designs aimed at developing patches of nesting habitat may help increase operational resilience for fire-impacted sagebrush ecosystems.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2022

Scale-dependent influence of the sagebrush community on genetic connectivity of the sagebrush obligate Gunnison sage-grouse

Habitat fragmentation and degradation impacts an organism's ability to navigate the landscape, ultimately resulting in decreased gene flow and increased extinction risk. Understanding how landscape composition impacts gene flow (i.e., connectivity) and interacts with scale is essential to conservation decision-making. We used a landscape genetics approach implementing a recently developed statistical model based on the generalized Wishart probability distribution to identify the primary landscape features affecting gene flow and estimate the degree to which each component influences connectivity for Gunnison sage-grouse ( Centrocercus minimus ). We were interested in two spatial scales: among distinct populations rangewide and among leks (i.e., breeding grounds) within the largest population, Gunnison Basin. Populations and leks are nested within a landscape fragmented by rough terrain and anthropogenic features, although requisite sagebrush habitat is more contiguous within populations. Our best fit models for each scale confirm the importance of sagebrush habitat in connectivity, although the important sagebrush characteristics differ. For Gunnison Basin, taller shrubs and higher quality nesting habitat were the primary drivers of connectivity, while more sagebrush cover and less conifer cover facilitated connectivity rangewide. Our findings support previous assumptions that Gunnison sage-grouse range contraction is largely the result of habitat loss and degradation. Importantly, we report direct estimates of resistance for landscape components that can be used to create resistance surfaces for prioritization of specific locations for conservation or management (i.e., habitat preservation, restoration, or development) or as we demonstrated, can be combined with simulation techniques to predict impacts to connectivity from potential management actions.

Colorado, Utah↗

USGS2022

Compendium to invasive annual grass spatial products for the western United States, January 2010-February 2021

Invasive annual grasses (IAGs) degrade native plant communities, alter fire cycles, impact ecosystem processes, and threaten the persistence of some species. Therefore, controlling the spread of IAGs has become a land management priority in the western United States. A wide array of geospatial data has been developed in the last decade to help land managers combat the invasion and expansion of non-native grasses by identifying areas where these species are likely to occur. However, choosing the most appropriate spatial product to address specific management concerns is a daunting task for many land managers, particularly with the rapid increase in the number of IAG spatial products available. To aid potential users in assessing these products, we reviewed and summarized 23 datasets that captured the three IAG species of most concern to rangeland management— Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass), Taeniatherum caput-medusae (medusahead), and Ventenata dubia (ventenata). To be included in this review, products were required to include part of the western United States, be regional or National in scale, and have been published between January 2010 and February 2021. This review, part of a series of informational data resources, is the compendium to an Excel-readable database and provides a 2-page summary of each spatial data product to assist land managers in understanding and selecting the best available spatial data for their management needs.

western United States↗