Geology topics

Burke J. Minsley

Publications and source records attributed to Burke J. Minsley.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2021

Characterizing methane emission hotspots from thawing permafrost

Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from climate-sensitive ecosystems within the northern permafrost region represent a potentially large but highly uncertain source, with current estimates spanning a factor of seven (11–75 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ). Accelerating permafrost thaw threatens significant increases in pan-Arctic CH 4 emissions, amplifying the permafrost carbon feedback. We used airborne imaging spectroscopy with meter-scale spatial resolution and broad coverage to identify a previously undiscovered CH 4 emission hotspot adjacent to a thermokarst lake in interior Alaska. Hotspot emissions were confined to <1% of the 10 ha lake study area. Ground-based chamber measurements confirmed average daily fluxes from the hotspot of 1,170 mg CH 4 m −2 d −1 , with extreme daily maxima up to 24,200 mg CH 4 m −2 d −1 . Ground-based geophysical measurements revealed thawed permafrost directly beneath the CH 4 hotspot, extending to a depth of ∼15 m, indicating that the intense CH 4 emissions likely originated from recently thawed permafrost. Hotspot emissions accounted for ∼40% of total diffusive CH 4 emissions from the lake study site. Combining study site findings with hotspot statistics from our 70,000 km 2 airborne survey across Alaska and northwestern Canada, we estimate that pan-Arctic terrestrial thermokarst hotspots currently emit 1.1 (0.1–5.2) Tg CH 4 yr −1 , or roughly 4% of the annual pan-Arctic wetland budget from just 0.01% of the northern permafrost land area. Our results suggest that significant proportions of pan-Arctic CH 4 emissions originate from disproportionately small areas of previously undetermined thermokarst emissions hotspots, and that pan-Arctic CH 4 emissions may increase non-linearly as thermokarst processes increase under a warming climate.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Incorporating uncertainty into groundwater salinity mapping using AEM data

Airborne electromagnetic surveys provide spatially extensive resistivity information that can be useful for groundwater salinity mapping; however, the transformation from geophysical data to salinity interpretations carries uncertainty. We compare two quantitative approaches to salinity mapping recently applied to address water resource management objectives: the location of the depth to the freshwater-brine interface at Paradox Valley, Colorado, and 3D categorical mapping of fresh, brackish, and saline groundwater near oil and gas fields of the San Joaquin Valley, California. These different approaches were driven by a combination of the availability of water quality observations, the hydrogeologic setting, and study objectives.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2021

The biophysical role of water and ice within permafrost nearing collapse: Insights from novel geophysical observations

The impact of permafrost thaw on hydrologic, thermal, and biotic processes remains uncertain, in part due to limitations in subsurface measurement capabilities. To better understand subsurface processes in thermokarst environments, we collocated geophysical and biogeochemical instruments along a thaw gradient between forested permafrost and collapse-scar bogs at the Alaska Peatland Experiment (APEX) site near Fairbanks, Alaska. Ambient seismic noise monitoring provided continuous high-temporal resolution measurements of water and ice saturation changes. Maps of seismic velocity change identified areas of large summertime velocity reductions nearest the youngest bog, indicating potential thaw and expansion at the bog margin. These results corresponded well with complementary borehole nuclear magnetic resonance measurements of unfrozen water content with depth, which showed permafrost soils nearest the bog edges contained the largest amount of unfrozen water along the study transect, up to 25% by volume. In situ measurements of methane within permafrost soils revealed high concentrations at these bog-edge locations, up to 30% soil gas. Supra-permafrost talik zones were observed at the bog margins, indicating talik formation and perennial liquid water may drive lateral bog expansion and enhanced permafrost carbon losses preceding thaw. Comparison of seismic monitoring with wintertime surface carbon dioxide fluxes revealed differential responses depending on time and proximity to the bogs, capturing the controlling influence of subsurface water and ice on microbial activity and surficial emissions. This study demonstrates a multidisciplinary approach for gaining new understanding of how subsurface physical properties influence greenhouse gas production, emissions, and thermokarst development.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Airborne geophysical surveys of the lower Mississippi Valley demonstrate system-scale mapping of subsurface architecture

The Mississippi Alluvial Plain hosts one of the most prolific shallow aquifer systems in the United States but is experiencing chronic groundwater decline. The Reelfoot rift and New Madrid seismic zone underlie the region and represent an important and poorly understood seismic hazard. Despite its societal and economic importance, the shallow subsurface architecture has not been mapped with the spatial resolution needed for effective management. Here, we present airborne electromagnetic, magnetic, and radiometric observations, measured over more than 43,000 flight-line-kilometers, which collectively provide a system-scale snapshot of the entire region. We develop detailed maps of aquifer connectivity and shallow geologic structure, infer relationships between structure and groundwater age, and identify previously unseen paleochannels and shallow fault structures. This dataset demonstrates how regional-scale airborne geophysics can close a scale gap in Earth observation by providing observational data at suitable scales and resolutions to improve our understanding of subsurface structures.

Mississippi River Valley↗

USGS2021

Decadal-scale hotspot methane ebullition within lakes following abrupt permafrost thaw

Thermokarst lakes accelerate deep permafrost thaw and the mobilization of previously frozen soil organic carbon. This leads to microbial decomposition and large releases of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) that enhance climate warming. However, the time scale of permafrost-carbon emissions following thaw is not well known but is important for understanding how abrupt permafrost thaw impacts climate feedback. We combined field measurements and radiocarbon dating of CH 4 ebullition with (a) an assessment of lake area changes delineated from high-resolution (1–2.5 m) optical imagery and (b) geophysical measurements of thaw bulbs (taliks) to determine the spatiotemporal dynamics of hotspot-seep CH 4 ebullition in interior Alaska thermokarst lakes. Hotspot seeps are characterized as point-sources of high ebullition that release 14 C-depleted CH 4 from deep (up to tens of meters) within lake thaw bulbs year-round. Thermokarst lakes, initiated by a variety of factors, doubled in number and increased 37.5% in area from 1949 to 2009 as climate warmed. Approximately 80% of contemporary CH 4 hotspot seeps were associated with this recent thermokarst activity, occurring where 60 years of abrupt thaw took place as a result of new and expanded lake areas. Hotspot occurrence diminished with distance from thermokarst lake margins. We attribute older 14 C ages of CH 4 released from hotspot seeps in older, expanding thermokarst lakes ( 14 C CH4 20 079 ± 1227 years BP, mean ± standard error (s.e.m.) years) to deeper taliks (thaw bulbs) compared to younger 14 C CH4 in new lakes ( 14 C CH4 8526 ± 741 years BP) with shallower taliks. We find that smaller, non-hotspot ebullition seeps have younger 14 C ages (expanding lakes 7473 ± 1762 years; new lakes 4742 ± 803 years) and that their emissions span a larger historic range. These observations provide a first-order constraint on the magnitude and decadal-scale duration of CH 4 -hotspot seep emissions following formation of thermokarst lakes as climate warms.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

USGS permafrost research determines the risks of permafrost thaw to biologic and hydrologic resources

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with university, Federal, Tribal, and independent partners, conducts fundamental research on the distribution, vulnerability, and importance of permafrost in arctic and boreal ecosystems. Scientists, land managers, and policy makers use USGS data to help make decisions for development, wildlife habitat, and other needs. Native villages and cities can forecast landscape change and where soils are vulnerable to thaw with more certainty. The scientific community can use USGS data to develop scenarios of future permafrost change.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Model structural uncertainty quantification and hydrogeophysical data integration using airborne electromagnetic data

A irborne electromagnetic (AEM) data are used to estimate large - scale model structural geometry, i.e. the spatial distribution of different lit hological units based on assumed or estimated resistivity - lithology relationships, and the uncertainty in those structures given imperfect measurements. Geophysically derived estimates of model structural uncertainty are then combined with hydrologic obse rvations to assess the impact of model structural error on hydrologic calibration and prediction errors. Using a synthetic numerical model, we describe a sequential hydrogeophysical approach that: (1) uses Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) methods to produce a robust estimate of uncertainty in electrical resistivity parameter s , (2) combines geophysical parameter uncertainty estimates with borehole observations of lithology to produce probabilistic estimates of model structural uncertainty over the e ntire AEM survey area using geostatistical sequential indicator simulation algorithms, and (3) uses model structural estimates along with hydrologic observations to quantify both hydrologic parameter and prediction uncertainty using a second McMC sampling algorithm. Results of simulations will be presented that illustrate the complete workflow from geophysical parameter uncertainty analysis to the impact of model structural uncertainty on hydrologic parameter estimates.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2021

Permafrost characterization and feature identification using public domain airborne electromagnetic data, interior Alaska

The Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys (DGGS) airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data are an excellent resource for permafrost characterization. AEM data can be used for pingo identification, estimating permafrost thickness, estimating surface talik thickness, evaluating permafrost health (temperature), talik identification and more. Data examples are shown from discontinuous permafrost areas just north of Fairbanks, Alaska, USA. Interpretations are made from 2D and 3D resistivity models created from 1D inversions of the Goldstream Valley AEM survey data (Emond, 2018a).

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Quantifying model structural uncertainty using airborne electromagnetic data

The ability to quantify structural uncertainty in geological models that incorporate geophysical data is affected by two primary sources of uncertainty: geophysical parameter uncertainty and uncertainty in the relationship between geophysical parameters and geological properties of interest. Here, we introduce an open-source, trans-dimensional Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) algorithm GeoBIPy—Geophysical Bayesian Inference in Python—for robust uncertainty analysis of time-domain or frequency-domain airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data. The McMC algorithm provides a robust assessment of geophysical parameter uncertainty using a trans-dimensional approach that lets the AEM data inform the level of model complexity necessary by allowing the number of model layers itself to be an unknown parameter. Additional components of the Bayesian algorithm allow the user to solve for parameters such as data errors or corrections to the measured instrument height above ground. Probability distributions for a user-specified number of lithologic classes are developed through posterior clustering of McMC-derived resistivity models. Estimates of geological model structural uncertainty are thus obtained through the joint probability of geophysical parameter uncertainty and the uncertainty in the definition of each class. Examples of the implementation of this algorithm are presented for both time-domain and frequency-domain AEM data acquired in Nebraska, USA.

Nebraska↗

USGS2020

Wildfire-initiated talik development exceeds current thaw projections: Observations and models from Alaska's continuous permafrost zone

As the Arctic warms and wildfire occurrence increases, talik formation in permafrost regions is projected to expand and affect the cycling of water and carbon. Yet, few unified field and modeling studies have examined this process in detail, particularly in areas of continuous permafrost. We address this gap by presenting multimethod, multiseasonal geophysical measurements of permafrost and liquid‐water content that reveal substantial talik development in response to recent wildfire in continuous permafrost of boreal Alaska. Results from observation‐based cryohydrogeologic model simulations suggest that predisturbance subsurface conditions are key factors influencing thaw response to fire disturbance and air temperature warming. Our high‐resolution integrated study illustrates enhanced vulnerability of boreal continuous permafrost, with observed talik formation that exceeds coarse‐scale model projections by ~100 years even under the most extreme future emissions scenario. Results raise important scaling questions for representing extreme permafrost thaw phenomena of growing widespread importance in large‐scale predictive models.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Probabilistic categorical groundwater salinity mapping from airborne electromagnetic data adjacent to California’s Lost Hills and Belridge oil fields

Growing water stress has led to emerging interest in protecting fresh and brackish groundwater as a potential supplement to water supplies and raised questions about factors that could affect the future quality of fresh and brackish aquifers. Limited well infrastructure, particularly in regions where elevated salinity has led to limited historical groundwater development, hinders traditional mapping of salinity distributions through groundwater sampling. This paper presents a quantitative salinity mapping approach of the upper 300 m using high‐resolution, regionally comprehensive resistivity models derived from Bayesian inversion of an airborne electromagnetic survey adjacent to the Lost Hills and Belridge oil fields in the southwestern San Joaquin Valley of California. Using local water quality observations as an interpretational foundation, a probabilistic approach yields maps of fresh, saline, and brackish groundwater while quantifying joint uncertainty inherited from the geophysical data and interpretational relations. Saline and fresh regions are mapped with relatively high confidence in many locations, while areas of lower confidence, particularly at depth, can be mapped as their most probable salinity category while reflecting the relative uncertainty in the interpretation. These maps identify a stratified salinity structure, where saline water commonly occurs in the surficial aquifer overlying fresher groundwater in the Tulare aquifer, separated by regional confining clay layers. Downgradient of unlined surface water diversions, recharge of imported surface water results in relatively fresh groundwater throughout the depth of investigation.

California↗

USGS2020

Evidence for late Quaternary deformation along Crowley's Ridge, New Madrid seismic zone

The New Madrid seismic zone has been the source of multiple major (M ~7.0–7.5) earthquakes in the past 2 ka, yet the surface expression of recent deformation remains ambiguous. Crowleys Ridge, a linear ridge trending north‐south for 300+ km through the Mississippi Embayment, has been interpreted as either a fault‐bounded uplift or a nontectonic erosional remnant. New and previously published seismic reflection and shallow resistivity data show discontinuities at the ridge margins in Plio‐Pleistocene strata, yet the timing of most recent faulting and the lateral extent of these faults remain unknown. To assess Pleistocene‐to‐recent tectonic activity of Crowleys Ridge, we perform landscape‐scale geomorphic analyses, such as relief, slope, hypsometry, and drainage basin shape, on a 10‐m digital elevation model (DEM). North‐to‐south variations in geomorphic indices indicate Pleistocene‐to‐recent tectonic uplift of the southern ridge. Moreover, mapping on a <1‐m lidar‐derived DEM reveals scarps on late Pleistocene geomorphic surfaces. The scarps are primarily located along the southern ridge, trend parallel to the ridge margin discontinuously for 0.1–1 km, and vertically offset <56 ka surfaces 0.4 m with up to 6 m of tilting. These landscape‐scale patterns and scarps, integrated with discontinuities in the seismic reflection and resistivity data, provide evidence of low‐rate (<0.2 mm/year) late Quaternary tectonic activity along the southern segment of Crowleys Ridge. The interpretations agree with recent tectonic models suggesting southern Crowleys Ridge is a compressional step over in a right‐lateral fault system within the Reelfoot Rift.

Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee↗

USGS2020

High-resolution mapping of the freshwater-brine interface using deterministic and Bayesian inversion of airborne electromagnetic data at Paradox Valley, USA

Salt loads in the Colorado River Basin are a primary water quality concern. Natural groundwater brine discharge to the Dolores River where it passes through the collapsed salt anticline of the Paradox Valley in western Colorado is a significant source of salt to the Colorado River. An airborne electromagnetic survey of Paradox Valley has provided insights into the 3D distribution of brine in the surficial aquifer. A combination of stochastic and deterministic resistivity inversions were used to interpret the top of the freshwater-brine interface and to qualitatively describe the vertical salinity gradients across the interface. Low-resistivity regions indicative of brine occur near the land surface where brine discharges to the Dolores River and increase in depth several kilometers up-gradient along the axis of the valley. The most conductive parts of the brine plume are found in the areas below and adjacent to the river, suggesting that the brine becomes shallower and more concentrated as it reaches its natural discharge location. A significant freshwater lens overlying the brine west of the Dolores River is spatially correlated to the intermittent West Paradox Creek and agricultural irrigation. Below this lens, the transition from freshwater to brine appears to occur abruptly over a few meters and correlates to available well information. However, away from these regions and particularly with distance from the river, the freshwater-brine interface appears to be more diffuse.

Colorado↗

USGS2020

High-resolution airborne geophysical survey of the Shellmound, Mississippi area

In late February to early March 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey acquired 2,364 line-kilometers (km) of airborne electromagnetic, magnetic, and radiometric data in the Shellmound, Mississippi study area. The purpose of this survey is to contribute high-resolution information about subsurface geologic structure to inform groundwater models, water resource infrastructure studies, and local decision making. The Shellmound region hosts a managed aquifer recharge (MAR) pilot project, developed by the Agricultural Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The MAR pilot project is investigating the use of bank filtration along the Tallahatchie River as a source for recharge in areas of significant groundwater decline. Direct injection into the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial aquifer (MRVA) occurs about 3 km from the extraction gallery. Understanding the structure of the aquifer, including both shallow and deep confining units, is important for the success of this pilot MAR study and may be even more important for potential future large-scale MAR projects and groundwater model development efforts.

Mississippi↗

USGS2020

Characterizing the diverse hydrogeology underlying rivers and estuaries using new floating transient electromagnetic methodology

The hydrogeology below large surface water features such as rivers and estuaries is universally under-informed at the long reach to basin scales (tens of km+). This challenge inhibits the accurate modeling of fresh/saline groundwater interfaces and groundwater/surface water exchange patterns at management-relevant spatial extents. Here we introduce a towed, floating transient electromagnetic (TEM) system (i.e. FloaTEM) for rapid (up to 15 km/h) high resolution electrical mapping of the subsurface below large water bodies to depths often a factor of 10 greater than other towed instruments. The novel FloaTEM system is demonstrated at a range of diverse 4th through 6th-order riverine settings across the United States including 1) the Farmington River, near Hartford, Connecticut; 2) the Upper Delaware River near Barryville, New York; 3) the Tallahatchie River near Shellmound, Mississippi; and, 4) the Eel River estuary, on Cape Cod, near Falmouth, Massachusetts. Airborne frequency-domain electromagnetic and land-based towed TEM data are also compared at the Tallahatchie River site, and streambed geologic scenarios are explored with forward modeling. A range of geologic structures and pore water salinity interfaces were identified. Process-based interpretation of the case study data indicated FloaTEM can resolve varied sediment-water interface materials, such as the accumulation of fines at the bottom of a reservoir and permeable sand/gravel riverbed sediments that focus groundwater discharge. Bedrock layers were mapped at several sites, and aquifer confining units were defined at comparable resolution to airborne methods. Terrestrial fresh groundwater discharge with flowpaths extending hundreds of meters from shore was also imaged below the Eel River estuary, improving on previous hydrogeological characterizations of that nutrient-rich coastal exchange zone. In summary, the novel FloaTEM system fills a critical gap in our ability to characterize the hydrogeology below surface water features and will support more accurate prediction of groundwater/surface water exchange dynamics and fresh-saline groundwater interfaces.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2019

Inversion of airborne EM data with an explicit choice of prior model

Inversion of airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data is an under-determined inverse problem, in that infinitely many resistivity models exist that will be able to explain the observed data, within measurement errors. Therefore, additional information or constraints must be taken into account to solve the inverse problem. In deterministic approaches, the goal is to locate one optimal model that can be obtained by using some form of smoothness constraints implied through a number of regularization choices. This model, however, will not necessarily represent realistic geological features. Probabilistic methods offer an alternative in which the solution is not one model, but a collection of models, whose variability represents the uncertainty. The probabilistic approach can also rely on implicit model assumptions, representing prior information (a type of regularization information) that may or may not be consistent with the actual available information. Here, we present an approach for AEM inversion in which the prior model is explicitly chosen by a user, preferably selected based on actual prior information available and then integrated with AEM data using a general Monte Carlo based sampling approach. This approach leads to a new workflow to AEM inversion in which geological prior information is independently and explicitly chosen before inversion is carried out. The main benefit of this approach is that each model obtained will, by construction, be consistent with prior (geological) information as well as geophysical data. Through examples based on synthetic and real AEM data, we will demonstrate the methodology, not least that the choice of prior information cannot be avoided: Either it is done explicitly, or it will be chosen implicitly by the choice of method used to invert the AEM data.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2019

Development of perennial thaw zones in boreal hillslopes enhances potential mobilization of permafrost carbon

Permafrost thaw alters subsurface flow in boreal regions that in turn influences the magnitude, seasonality, and chemical composition of streamflow. Prediction of these changes is challenged by incomplete knowledge of timing, flowpath depth, and amount of groundwater discharge to streams in response to thaw. One important phenomenon that may affect flow and transport through boreal hillslopes is development of lateral perennial thaw zones (PTZs), the existence of which is here supported by geophysical observations and cryohydrogeologic modeling. Model results link thaw to enhanced and seasonally-extended baseflow, which have implications for mobilization of soluble constituents. Results demonstrate the sensitivity of PTZ development to organic layer thickness and near-surface factors that mediate heat exchange at the atmosphere/ground-surface interface. Study findings suggest that PTZs serve as a detectable precursor to accelerated permafrost degradation. This study provides important contextual insight on a fundamental thermo-hydrologic process that can enhance terrestrial-to-aquatic transfer of permafrost carbon, nitrogen, and mercury previously sequestered in thawing watersheds.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Hydrogeophysics at societally relevant scales: Airborne electromagnetic applications and model structural uncertainty quantification

There is a critical and growing need for information about subsurface geological properties and processes over sufficiently large areas that can inform key scientific and societal studies. Airborne geophysical methods fill a unique role in Earth observation because of their ability to detect deep subsurface properties at regional scales and with high spatial resolution that cannot be achieved with groundbased measurements. Airborne electromagnetics, or AEM, is one technique that is rapidly emerging as a foundational tool for geological mapping, with widespread application to studies of water and mineral resources, geologic hazards, infrastructure, the cryosphere, and the environment. Applications of AEM are growing worldwide, with rapid developments in instrumentation and data analysis software. In this study, we summarize several recent hydrogeophysical applications of AEM, including examples drawn from a recent survey in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP). In addition, we discuss developments in computational methods for geophysical and geological model structural uncertainty quantification using AEM data, and how these results are used in a sequential hydrogeophysical approach to characterize hydrologic parameters and prediction uncertainty.

Conference Paper↗