Geology topics

Bryan S. Stevens

Publications and source records attributed to Bryan S. Stevens.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Fitness consequences of catastrophic wildfire are mitigated by behavioral responses of an iconic bird

Background Drought, human disturbance, and invasive species are reshaping disturbance regimes and increasing the scale, severity, and frequency of wildfire in many ecosystems around the globe, including the sagebrush steppe of western North America. Recent studies suggested greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) adhere to strong site fidelity in the aftermath of wildfire, remaining inside fire perimeters for nesting and brood rearing despite negative consequences for survival and reproduction. Sage-grouse in Idaho exhibited context-dependent changes to space use after a large, high-severity fire that burned > 40,000 ha, yet the specific behavioral responses to fire and their fitness consequences remain unclear. We used data collected from 269 hens over a 6-year period under a multi-level before-after-control-impact design to test the hypothesis that sage-grouse mitigated fitness consequences of high-severity wildfire through adaptive behavioral responses and spatial redistribution. Results We tested predictions deduced from our hypothesis at the population and individual levels using behavioral, demographic, and life history data, including nesting metrics, brood-rearing metrics, hen survival, and body mass at capture. Fifteen of 16 predictions were supported, demonstrating that post-fire space use and avoidance of the burn was adaptive and helped mitigate fitness effects of the fire. Short-term consequences included elimination of nesting and brood rearing habitat and subsequent shifts to the distribution of usable space. Yet fitness consequences were minimal because of behavioral flexibility employed by hens during nesting and brood rearing. Conclusions Behavioral responses to wildfire by sage-grouse are more flexible than has been described, and sage-grouse demonstrated resilience by rapidly adapting space use to avoid short-term consequences of catastrophic fire when high-quality habitat remained adjacent to the burn and within their seasonal range. Our results imply behavioral and fitness consequences of fire are context-dependent and likely impacted by attributes of the fire and surrounding landscape after disturbance. Furthermore, among-study differences in behavioral and fitness outcomes of sage-grouse after fire supported underappreciated predictions from both fire ecology and site fidelity theory, and suggest conditions where behavioral flexibility should be expressed, and fidelity relaxed, based on severity of disturbance, landscape context, and species mobility.

Idaho↗

USGS2025

The Grouse & Grazing Project: Effects of cattle grazing on demographic traits of greater sage-grouse

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) were once widespread within sagebrush -grassland ecosystems of western North America, but populations have declined since the mid-1960s. Though sage-grouse were not listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), when examined in 2015, they remain a species of interest and concern. Roughly half of the sage-grouse’s remaining habitat is on federal land, most of it managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the U.S. Forest Service (USFS). Livestock grazing is the most extensive land use within sage-grouse habitat and the effects of livestock grazing on sage-grouse are often debated. The extensive decade-long research project summarized in this report was initiated to provide rigorous experimental research to inform the debate regarding the relationship between livestock grazing and sage-grouse. In 2012, the Idaho Grouse & Grazing Project was started with several partners including the University of Idaho, BLM, Idaho Department of Fish and Game (IDFG), and other partners to evaluate the effects of cattle grazing on sage-grouse vital rates. Many additional supporters have provided resources to this research effort including the Public Lands Council, Idaho Cattle Association, Idaho Governor’s Office of Species Conservation, Western Association of Fish & Wildlife Agencies, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, USFS, and numerous grazing associations and ranchers in Idaho. This 10-year research project was a scientifically rigorous and replicated experiment, occurring across five study sites in Idaho. This document is intended to provide a summary of the findings of this unprecedented study. Annual reports are available on the project’s website: https://idahogrousegrazing.org and scientific papers are being prepared and submitted to journals. The project focused on the influence of spring cattle grazing on sage-grouse vital rates across five study sites in Idaho including 21 BLM grazing pastures. From 2014-2023, we captured 1,343 grouse, documented the fate of 1,285 nests, and tracked 399 broods. Vegetation was characterized at 4,777 plots and grazing utilization levels were recorded at >30,000 locations. Because insects are an important food source for sage-grouse hens and their chicks, insect biomass and diversity were also examined in this study. We collected arthropods in 12,151 pitfall samples and 6,217 sweep-net samples across 786 plots within our five study sites. At each study site, three or four grazing treatments were implemented after two years of pre-treatment field investigations. These controlled cattle grazing treatments included spring-grazing in even years, spring-grazing in odd years, spring-and-fall grazing in alternating years, and a no grazing (or rested) control. Once grazing treatments were implemented at a study site, we measured sage-grouse demographic traits for 4-8 years post-treatment. Stocking rate (grazing intensity) was assessed across pastures each year and was influenced by vegetation communities, topography, and water sources. Grazed pastures exhibited lower grass cover and height compared to the no grazing pastures, and the extent of this difference varied based on annual precipitation levels. Rested pastures maintained higher grass cover and grass height, but the differences in habitat structure did not consistently translate to differences in sage-grouse demographic traits. Apparent nesting success varied annually and by site, ranging from 24% to 44% over the study period. Like some other studies, results from this research show that successful (i.e., hatched) sage-grouse nests have taller grass heights than failed nests. The average grass height surrounding successful nests in grazed pastures was shorter than that surrounding successful nests in non-grazed (i.e., rested) pastures. It is well documented that grazing reduces grass height, and these observations have led to widely held assumptions that livestock grazing reduces grass height which negatively affects sage-grouse nesting habitat. At the pasture scale, this study has found that sage-grouse nesting success is no greater in pastures that were rested for 4-8 years than those currently or recently grazed. This study gives no indication that removing cattle from pastures affected nesting success. We found some evidence that nest density varied among the grazing treatments, but we did not see compelling evidence of increases in density of nesting hens following cessation of grazing in the no grazing treatments. Brood survival varied by site and year but showed no strong effect of grazing treatment. Climatic conditions, particularly drought in 2021, had a greater effect on brood survival than grazing metrics. We also found no differences in hen survival among the grazing treatments. Results of this study suggest that hens nesting in spring and fall grazed pastures had similar or even slightly higher brood survival than hens in the rested pastures or the spring grazed pastures. Arthropod biomass and species diversity varied among our study sites and the differences between grazed and rested pastures also varied among study sites. Average biomass and diversity of arthropods was higher in the spring grazed pastures on two of three sites examined but higher in the rested pastures on the other site examined. Some taxa of arthropods were more abundant in grazed pastures while other taxa were more abundant in rested pastures. For example, Carabidae (Ground Beetles) and Formicidae (Ants) had higher biomass in grazed pastures, while Tenebrionidae (Darkling Beetles) and Acrididae (Grasshoppers) had higher biomass in non-grazed pastures. Results indicate that grazing effects on arthropod biomass and arthropod diversity are study site-dependent, suggesting a need to better quantify the most important prey taxa for sage-grouse chicks and to better control for other factors that influence arthropod abundance. Based on results of this research, livestock grazing, when properly managed, does not appear to negatively impact sage-grouse nest survival or brood success. This study provides critical insights for land managers balancing livestock production with sage-grouse conservation, supporting adaptive grazing strategies that maintain both economic and ecological objectives.

Idaho↗

USGS2024

Developing a range-wide sampling framework for endangered species: A case study with light-footed Ridgway’s rail

Monitoring provides the foundation for evaluating recovery of endangered species, yet many species lack monitoring programs designed to integrate a species’ unique attributes, specific monitoring objectives, and principles of statistical sampling theory. We developed a framework for monitoring and assessment of endangered light-footed Ridgway’s rails ( Rallus obsoletus levipes ) across their U.S. range, relative to multi-scale recovery goals. We created spatially explicit sample units and a sampling frame covering all potential habitat to facilitate range-wide probability sampling, and also built a model of the call-broadcast process commonly used to survey marsh birds that included heterogeneity in availability for detection and conditional detectability for each bird during each survey. We used the model to simulate 96 sampling strategies that included different levels of replication, multiple approaches for sample allocation amongst strata, and both simple random and weighted probability sampling (i.e., weights proportional to local rail abundance) of sample units within strata. Effective monitoring surveyed ≥20–30% of the sampling frame on ≥3 occasions, with weighted sample selection and more targeted sampling (50% of units) for strata that are key to species recovery. We also tested Bayesian N-mixture models for estimating abundance and show that multiple models provide reasonable estimates. This work lays the foundation for statistical sampling and multi-scale population estimation for an endangered bird, and for refinement of abundance estimation models. Moreover, this work provides a replicable process for building customized and statistically defensible sampling frameworks to assess recovery of endangered species that can used for other sensitive species.

California↗

USGS2023

Backpack satellite transmitters reduce survival but not nesting propensity or success of greater sage-grouse

Telemetry technology is ubiquitous for studying the behavior and demography of wildlife, including the use of traditional very high frequency (VHF) radio telemetry and more recent methods that record animal locations using global positioning systems (GPS). Satellite-based GPS telemetry allows researchers to collect high spatial–temporal resolution data remotely but may also come with additional costs. For example, recent studies from the southern Great Basin suggested GPS transmitters attached via backpacks may reduce the survival of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) relative to VHF transmitters attached via collars that have been in use for decades. While some evidence suggests GPS backpacks reduce survival, no studies have examined the effects of GPS backpacks on breeding behavior and success. Therefore, we compared survival, breeding behavior, and nest success of sage-grouse hens marked with both VHF collars and GPS backpack transmitter over a 7-year period in central Idaho, USA. GPS backpacks reduced spring–summer survival of sage-grouse hens relative to hens with VHF collars, where daily mortality probability was 68%–82% higher from March 1 to August 1. Yet satellite GPS backpacks did not consistently affect nest success or the likelihood or timing of nest initiation relative to VHF collars. Daily nest survival varied annually and with timing of nest initiation and nest age, but marginal effects of transmitter type were statistically insignificant and interactions between transmitter type and study year produced no meaningful patterns. Our results corroborate recent studies for the effect of satellite GPS backpacks on sage-grouse survival, but also suggest that these transmitters do not appear to affect components of fecundity. Our results therefore add important context to recent debate surrounding the effects of GPS backpacks on sage-grouse, and the relative strengths and weaknesses of different transmitter types for understanding behavior and population dynamics.

Idaho↗

USGS2023

Effects of large-scale disturbance on animal space use: Functional responses by greater sage-grouse after megafire

Global change has altered the nature of disturbance regimes, and megafire events are increasingly common. Megafires result in immediate changes to habitat available to terrestrial wildlife over broad landscapes, yet we know surprisingly little about how such changes shape space use of sensitive species in habitat that remains. Functional responses provide a framework for understanding and predicting changes in space use following habitat alteration, but no previous studies have assessed functional responses as a consequence of megafire. We studied space use and tested for functional responses in habitat use by breeding greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) before and after landscape-level changes induced by a >40,000 ha, high-intensity megafire that burned sagebrush steppe in eastern Idaho, USA. We also incorporated functional responses into predictive resource selection functions (RSFs) to map breeding habitat before and after the fire. Megafire had strong effects on the distribution of available resources and resulted in context-dependent habitat use that was heterogeneous across different components of habitat. We observed functional responses in the use and selection of a variety of resources (shrubs and herbaceous vegetation) for both nesting and brood rearing. Functional responses in the use of nesting habitat were influenced by the overarching effect of megafire on vegetation, whereas responses during brood rearing appeared to be driven by individual variation in available resources that were conditional on nest locations. Importantly, RSFs built using data collected prior to the burn also had poor transferability for predicting space use in a post-megafire landscape. These results have strong implications for understanding and predicting how animals respond to a rapidly changing environment, given that increased severity, frequency, and extent of wildfire are consequences of global change with the capacity to reshape ecosystems. We therefore demonstrate a conceptual framework to better understand space use and aid habitat conservation for wildlife in a rapidly changing world.

Idaho↗

USGS2023

Multi-scale effects of land cover, weather, and fire on Columbian sharp-tailed grouse

Columbian sharp-tailed grouse ( Tympanuchus phasianellus columbianus ) are endemic to grassland and shrub-steppe ecosystems of western North America, yet their distribution has contracted to <10% of their historical range. Primary threats to Columbian sharp-tailed grouse include loss of native habitat and conversion to agriculture, reductions in habitat once provided by the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), wildfire, and drought conditions, yet population-level consequences of these threats and their spatio-temporal scales of effect are poorly understood. We evaluated multi-scale effects of land cover, weather, and fire histories on patterns of abundance and productivity for Columbian sharp-tailed grouse populations during 1995–2020 in Idaho, USA, using mixed-effects generalized regression and remotely sensed data. We demonstrated negative effects of fire, tree encroachment, and bare ground, positive effects of spring and summer precipitation and cover of shrubs and perennial forbs and grasses, and positive effects of CRP on grouse abundance that changed in magnitude with cover of perennials and shrubs near leks (i.e., strongest effects when average cover of shrubs and perennial forbs and grasses were less abundant). We also demonstrated per capita recruitment of Columbian sharp-tailed grouse is positively associated with late-summer greenness. Our results show that several suspected threats have measurable, population-level impacts to Columbian sharp-tailed grouse within Idaho. Moreover, our results suggest ongoing changes occurring within the core range of Columbian sharp-tailed grouse, including loss of CRP cover to tilled agriculture and changes to wildfire and precipitation dynamics are likely to have negative effects on populations.

Idaho↗

USGS2022

Nutrient restoration of a large, impounded, ultra-oligotrophic western river to recover declining native fishes

Declines in many fish populations in large, western rivers have been primarily attributed to the anthropogenic reduction of nutrient inputs and subsequent impacts to the food web. The largest known river fertilization program was implemented starting in 2005 on the Kootenai River in northern Idaho to restore resident fisheries. Annual electrofishing surveys were conducted at multiple sites in Idaho and Montana before and during nutrient addition to evaluate assemblage and population-level responses. Although few responses in fish assemblage structure were observed, the addition of liquid ammonium polyphosphate fertilizer (3 μg/L) to the Kootenai River increased fish abundance and biomass over the 20-km stretch of river downstream of the treatment site. Increases were most notable in Largescale Suckers Catostomus macrocheilus, Mountain Whitefish Prosopium williamsoni , and Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss populations, although increases in catch and biomass were detected for nearly all fish species . The Kootenai River is approximately 30 times larger in discharge than other rivers that have been experimentally fertilized and provides compelling evidence that the mitigation of nutrient declines in rivers of similar size can result in positive influences on the fish populations where primary and secondary production are limiting growth, survival, and recruitment. However, results from our study also highlight the importance of completing evaluations across varying levels of biological organization (e.g., assemblage and population) and over biologically relevant timeframes.

Idaho, Montana↗

USGS2022

Large-scale distribution models for optimal prediction of Eastern black rail habitat within tidal ecosystems

Eastern black rails ( Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis ) are among the rarest and least-studied birds in North America and were recently listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Spatial models that predict habitat quality across the subspecies range are therefore needed to inform conservation, recovery, and monitoring efforts for this rare bird. We used data from 47,585 call-broadcast surveys collected at 7906 sites over a 3-decade period (1990s, 2000s, 2010s; 23 total years) to build species distribution models for eastern black rails. We used hierarchical Bayesian occupancy models and predictive model selection to develop multi-scale models that optimally predict habitat suitability for eastern black rails within tidal wetlands while also accounting for imperfect detection of these cryptic birds during field surveys. We also used raster regression techniques to translate model predictions into 30-m resolution maps of habitat suitability for eastern black rails within tidal wetlands along the eastern seaboard of the United States. The model predicted suitability of breeding habitat as a function of wetland attributes (e.g., cover of high marsh and terrestrial border), hydrologic modification, and disturbance from human development measured over multiple spatial scales. We also found differences in habitat relationships for eastern black rails when compared to models that included both North American subspecies of black rail. Important results included negative effects of shrub-scrub wetlands, and strong positive effects of high marsh, terrestrial border, and impoundments on breeding season occupancy. Our study provides an example of integrating detection-non-detection data and modern statistical methods to build predictive distribution models for an extremely rare species, while also providing rigorous predictions of breeding habitat quality for the eastern black rail within tidal wetlands. These models will facilitate optimal monitoring, habitat conservation, and recovery planning efforts for eastern black rails and provide a foundation for future research and conservation of this imperiled bird.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2021

Aural and visual detection of greater sage-grouse leks: Implications for population trend estimates

Counts of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) at leks have been used in harvest management, Endangered Species Act listing decisions, and land management policies for over half a century. Lek count sampling methods focus on counting male sage-grouse at known leks, primarily those observed visually from roads or vantage points, but leks are likely missed that are unknown prior to the survey and are difficult to detect while driving between known lek sites. One way to ameliorate this shortfall may be to conduct short point-count surveys at multiple stops along lek-survey routes or while driving between lek counts, thereby detecting newly established or unknown leks. To evaluate the feasibility of this approach, we estimated aural and visual detection probability of active sage-grouse leks during 1-minute point-count surveys at known distances and examined the effects of environmental factors on aural lek detection in southern Idaho, USA, 2016–2017. Our results demonstrate that field observers can aurally detect sage-grouse leks at approximately 3 times greater distances compared to detecting leks visually. The probability of hearing an active lek was highest near the peak of male and female attendance (8 Apr), within an hour of sunrise, on relatively calm and cold days, when the observer was at a higher elevation relative to the lek, and during conditions with no background noise. Detection probability declined with distance and the probability of aural detection was 0.59 at 1 km from a lek when other variables were held at their means. Hence, conducting ≥3 1-minute surveys along a lek route would be expected to detect ≥93% of all leks within 1.5 km of each survey under the average environmental conditions in our study. Our results suggest that surveys could greatly improve detection of unknown or newly established leks and can facilitate a more accurate assessment of sage-grouse population trends through lek counts. Moreover, our results demonstrate how environmental factors influence the detection of leks during surveys, and therefore which variables should be considered for inclusion in any future revisions of lek count protocols or in analyses of lek count data.

Idaho↗

USGS2021

Mapping habitat quality and threats for eastern Black Rails (Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis)

Documenting the spatial distribution of high-quality habitat patches, the distributions of threats and protected areas, and the vulnerability of habitat patches to changes in environmental conditions is vital for conservation of rare species. Range-wide species distribution models were developed for Black Rails ( Laterallus jamaicensis ) to predict the distribution of high-quality habitat patches for breeding Eastern Black Rails ( L. j. jamaicensis ). Overlay analyses were conducted to quantify the distribution of habitat relative to human development and existing protected areas, as well as the vulnerability of the best habitat to future sea level rise. The amount of high-quality habitat varied among states (0.4-7.6% of area) and was relatively rare throughout the subspecies' range (3.3% of area). Human development was common but the amount varied spatially among states (2.2-15.3% of area). Higher-quality breeding habitat was more common on federal lands (9.4% of area) and protected areas (6.4% of area), yet 33-42% of the highest-quality habitat patches were vulnerable to sea level rise of 0.61-1.83 m. Our results imply that even though many of the highest-quality habitat patches may be less likely sites for development they are often vulnerable to rising seas, and thus maintenance of existing high-quality habitat patches may be difficult without management that takes into account the likelihood of future inundation.

Waterbirds↗

USGS2020

Balancing transferability and complexity of species distribution models for rare species conservation

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) are valuable for rare species conservation and are commonly used to extrapolate predictions of habitat suitability geographically to regions where species occurrence is unknown (i.e., transferability). Spatially structured cross-validation can be used to infer transferability, yet, few studies have evaluated how delineation of cross-validation folds affects model complexity and predictions. We developed SDMs using multiple cross-validation approaches to understand the implications for predicting habitat suitability for northern Idaho ground squirrels, a rare, federally threatened species that has been extensively surveyed in regions where known populations occur, resulting in >8000 presence locations. Location Idaho, USA. Methods We delineated cross-validation folds by mimicking the manner in which predictions would be geographically extrapolated or by using existing dispersal barriers. We varied the distance between, number, and directionality of folds. We conducted a grid search on statistical regularization parameters to optimize model complexity, covering a range of values exceeding that typically implemented. For each cross-validation approach, we selected optimal regularization and model complexity based on out-of-sample predictive ability. Results Delineation of cross-validation folds substantially affected resulting model complexity and extrapolated predictions. All cross-validation approaches resulted in models with apparently high out-of-sample predictive ability, yet optimal model complexity varied substantially among the approaches. Regularization demonstrated a noisy relationship between model complexity and prediction, where local optima in predictive performance were common at small values. Main conclusion Subtle modelling decisions can have large consequences for predictions of habitat suitability and transferability of SDMs. When transferability is the goal, cross-validation approaches should be considered carefully and mimic the manner in which spatial extrapolation will occur, else overly complex models with inflated assessments of predictive accuracy may result. Further, spatially structured cross-validation may not guard against over-parameterization, and assessing a broader range of regularization parameters may be necessary to optimize model complexity for transferability.

Idaho↗

USGS2020

Mapping habitat suitability at range-wide scales: Spatially explicit distribution models to inform conservation and research for marsh birds

Habitat Loss is a primary cause of species decline, and predicting the distribution of quality habitats across broad scales is needed for conservation of rare species. Secretive marsh birds are a group of emergent-wetland specialists that include multiple threatened and endangered species whose populations have been impacted by wetland loss and modification. Habitat suitability for marsh birds is poorly mapped, and predictions of habitat quality over broad scales are primarily generated via expert judgment. We developed data-driven models to predict fine-resolution habitat quality for 13 marsh bird species across their ranges within the U.S. We demonstrate how these models are useful for conservation by quantifying range contraction, assessing the usefulness of existing protected areas, and assessing the vulnerability of habitats to global change for rare species. These tools provide a quantitative foundation for broad-scale conservation, research, and monitoring efforts, and a starting point for adaptive conservation of marsh bird breeding habitat over broad spatial extents.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

USGS2020

Keeping up with the times: Mapping range-wide habitat suitability for endangered species in a changing environment

Biologists and policy-makers have the difficult task of allocating limited resources to habitat conservation and management for endangered species in the face of changing environmental conditions. Satellite remote sensing can inform conservation because it is an efficient means to obtain environmental data over broad spatial and temporal extents. Yet, the challenges of accessing, processing, and analyzing remote sensing data hinder wider application of these techniques in conservation planning. We used Landsat data and hierarchical statistical models to link satellite-derived habitat measurements with abundance of endangered Yuma Ridgway's rails ( Rallus obsoletus yumanensis ) within the Lower Colorado River Basin and Salton Sink, USA. We addressed many of the challenges facing the application of remote sensing techniques by using the web-based, freely-available Google Earth Engine to process Landsat datasets, apply habitat models, and generate maps to predict habitat suitability at a fine spatial grain (30 m) across the range of the species. These maps are shareable, interactive, and easy to update annually as habitat conditions change using a Google Earth Engine App we developed. Thus, we provide a framework for building habitat suitability models and maps to help target adaptive habitat management over broad extents for sensitive species, enabling biologists to improve conservation and restoration efforts regularly as conditions change in highly variable ecosystems. We demonstrate this approach for Yuma Ridgway's rails, but our methods for merging hierarchical statistical models with open-source mapping software to describe spatial-temporal heterogeneity in habitat quality are applicable to any species, and are especially helpful to species inhabiting highly variable ecosystems.

Arizona, California, Nevada↗

USGS2020

Identifying important military installations for continental-scale conservation of marsh bird breeding habitat

Degradation of wetland ecosystems has negatively impacted many species, perhaps none more so than marsh birds that breed in vegetative emergent wetlands throughout North America. The U.S. Department of Defense manages approximately 29 million acres of land within the continental U.S., and many military installations contain wetland complexes that may be important for wetland birds. Thus, failure to adequately manage habitat for marsh birds could result in species extirpations and additional listings under the Endangered Species Act, and may result in regulatory burdens that reduce military readiness. We conducted spatial analyses to identify important breeding habitat on > 500 military installations for 12 species of marsh birds, with the goal of identifying installations that are, and are not, likely to harbor breeding habitat for each species. We also sought to assess the local value of military installations for species of greatest concern by comparing habitat suitability within installations to that in areas directly adjacent to those sites. We built range-wide, spatially-explicit models of species distribution to project suitability of breeding habitat for marsh birds within and adjacent to military installations. Our results demonstrate that installations with the best marsh bird habitat are geographically aggregated (both among and within species), primarily at sites along the eastern seaboard and within the southern U.S. In addition, only a few sites appear to contain high-quality habitat for most species. Five or fewer sites contained most of the high-quality habitat for 9 of 12 species, whereas most of the high-quality habitat for remaining species was found at ≤ 10 sites. This work fills an information gap regarding the distribution of breeding habitat for marsh birds on military lands across the U.S., and should facilitate both strategic conservation of habitat over broad scales and the integration of marsh birds into management efforts at the site level. Our analyses also identify installations that are not likely to harbor breeding habitat for priority species, and thus should help minimize conflicts between needs of the military and marsh-bird conservation.

Continental United States↗

USGS2019

Predictive multi-scale occupancy models at range-wide extents: Effects of habitat and human disturbance on distributions of wetland birds

Aim Predicting distributions is fundamental to ecology, yet hindered by spatially restricted sampling, scale-dependent relationships and detection error associated with field surveys. Predictive species distribution models (SDMs) are nonetheless vital for conservation of many species. We developed a framework for building predictive SDMs with multi-scale data and used it to develop range-wide breeding-season SDMs for 14 marsh bird species of concern. Location USA. Methods We built SDMs using data from range-wide surveys conducted over 14 years, and habitat and disturbance covariates measured at multiple spatial scales. We built hierarchical occupancy models that included heterogeneity in detectability during sampling, and used Bayesian model selection to regulate model complexity (covariates and scales) based explicitly on spatial predictive abilities. We thus integrated model selection for optimizing out-of-sample prediction, range-wide sampling over broad conditions, multi-scale analyses and scale optimization, and species-specific detectability for a suite of wide-ranging species. Results Distributions of marsh birds were affected by local wetland conditions, but also by agricultural, urban and hydrologic disturbances operating from local scales (100–500 m) to the watershed level. Variables measuring human disturbances improved prediction for most species, and every species was affected by attributes at >1 scale. Five species showed evidence for continental-scale range contraction during the study. Main conclusions We demonstrate how hierarchical occupancy models can be optimized for prediction across a species' range at the extent of a continent while also accounting for imperfect detection, and thus describe a generalizable approach that can be used for any species. We provide the first data-driven, empirical SDMs built at the range-wide extent for most of our 14 study species and demonstrate that previous studies focused on local distributions and the effects of fine-scale wetland vegetation missed important broadscale drivers of occupancy for marsh birds.

Diversity and Distributions↗

USGS2019

Predicting species distributions: unifying model selection and scale optimization for multi-scale occupancy models

Geographic distributions are a basic component of a species’ ecology, and predicting distributions is a fundamental task of conservation and resource management. Reliable prediction depends on identification of appropriate scales of effect for environmental data, and scale-optimization techniques are thus desirable to identify optimal scales for predictor variables. Recent statistical developments have also advanced methods of model selection based explicitly on predictive ability, which differ from commonly-used methods that regulate model structures via anticipated predictive performance. Such methods are beginning to permeate into species distribution models (SDMs), yet there remains no consensus methodology for developing optimally-predictive multi-scale SDMs when covariate data are collected over a range of scales. Thus, we compared the performance of common approaches for scale optimization and model selection in terms of their ability to produce optimally predictive multi-scale Bayesian occupancy models for predicting a species distribution, using models of the breeding distribution for King Rails (Rallus elegans) as a case study. Our results demonstrate sizable gains in predictive performance for hierarchical occupancy models selected explicitly via their ability to predict out-of-sample data using the logarithmic scoring rule, as compared to models selected using information criteria (DIC and WAIC). Information criteria commonly selected individual covariates, as well as scales of effect for those covariates, with suboptimal predictive performance. Performance of models selected using the logarithmic scoring rule was robust across method of scale optimization, which was not true for models selected using DIC and WAIC. Thus, we empirically demonstrate benefits of study designs that enable covariate and scale selection based explicitly on predictive ability. Our results also imply that more careful consideration of what constitutes an optimal scale is warranted in many ecological studies, as the meaning of optimal is not independent of the technique used for scale selection.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2015

Patterns of fish assemblage structure and habitat use among main- and side-channel environments in the lower Kootenai River, Idaho

The lower Kootenai River, Idaho, was sampled during the summers of 2012 and 2013 to evaluate its fish assemblage structure at seven sites within main- and side-channel habitats where large-scale habitat rehabilitation was undertaken. Understanding the current patterns of fish assemblage structure and their relationships with habitat is important for evaluating the effects of past and future rehabilitation projects on the river. Species-specific habitat associations were modeled, and the variables that best explained the occurrence and relative abundance of fish were identified in order to guide future habitat rehabilitation so that it benefits native species. The results indicated that the side-channel habitats supported higher species richness than the main-channel habitats and that nonnative fishes were closely associated with newly rehabilitated habitats. This research provides valuable insight on the current fish assemblages in the Kootenai River and the assemblage-level responses that may occur as a result of future rehabilitation activities.

Idaho↗