Geology topics

Bruce G. Marcot

Publications and source records attributed to Bruce G. Marcot.

23 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2014

Low-altitude photographic transects of the Arctic Network of National Park Units and Selawik National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, July 2013

During July 16–18, 2013, low-level photography flights were conducted (with a Cessna 185 with floats and a Cessna 206 with tundra tires) over the five administrative units of the National Park Service Arctic Network (Bering Land Bridge National Preserve, Cape Krusenstern National Monument, Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve, Kobuk Valley National Park, and Noatak National Preserve) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Selawik National Wildlife Refuge in northwest Alaska, to provide images of current conditions and prevalence of land-cover types as a baseline for measuring future change, and to complement the existing grid-based sample photography of the region. Total flight time was 17 hours, 46 minutes, and total flight distance was 2,590 kilometers, at a mean altitude of about 300 meters above ground level. A total of 19,167 photographs were taken from five digital camera systems: 1. A Drift® HD-170 (focal length 5.00 mm); 2. A GoPro® Hero3 Black Edition (focal length 2.77 mm); 3. A Panasonic® Lumix DMC-FZ200 (24× superzoom with variable focal length); 4. A Panasonic® Lumix DMC-SZ7 (10x superzoom with variable focal length); and 5. A Canon® Rebel 3Ti with a Sigma zoom lens (18–200 mm focal length). The Drift® HD-170 and GoPro® Hero3 cameras were secured to the struts and underwing for nadir (direct downward) imaging. The Panasonic® and Canon® cameras were each hand-held for oblique-angle landscape images, shooting through the airplanes’ windows, targeting both general landscape conditions as well as landscape features of special interest, such as tundra fire scars and landslips. The Drift® and GoPro® cameras each were set for time-lapse photography at 5-second intervals for overlapping coverage. Photographs from all cameras (100 percent .jpg format) were date- and time-synchronized to geographic positioning system waypoints taken during the flights, also at 5-second intervals, providing precise geotagging (latitude-longitude) of all files. All photographs were adjusted for color saturation and gamma, and nadir photographs were corrected for lens distortion for the Drift® and GoPro® cameras’ 170° wide-angle distortion. EXIF (exchangeable image file format) data on camera settings and geotagging were extracted into spreadsheet databases. An additional 1 hour, 20 minutes, and 43 seconds of high-resolution videos were recorded at 60 frames per second with the GoPro® camera along selected transect segments, and also were image-adjusted and corrected for lens distortion. Geotagged locations of 12,395 nadir photographs from the Drift® and GoPro® cameras were overlayed in a geographic information system (ArcMap 10.0) onto a map of 44 ecotypes (land- and water-cover types) of the Arctic Network study area. Presence and area of each ecotype occurring within a geographic information system window centered on the location of each photograph were recorded and included in the spreadsheet databases. All original and adjusted photographs, videos, geographic positioning system flight tracks, and photograph databases are available by contacting ascweb@usgs.gov.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Predicting the effects of climate change on ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska

We used a modeling framework and a recent ecological land classification and land cover map to predict how ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska might change in response to increasing temperature. Our results suggest modest increases in forest and tall shrub ecotypes in Northwest Alaska by the end of this century thereby increasing habitat for forest-dwelling and shrub-using birds and mammals. Conversely, we predict declines in several more open low shrub, tussock, and meadow ecotypes favored by many waterbird, shorebird, and small mammal species.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests

Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM). SDM entails four stages: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring the preferred alternative with adaptive management feedbacks. We list a wide array of models, techniques, and tools available for each stage, and provide three case studies of their selected use in National Forest land management and project plans. Successful use of SDM involves participation by decision-makers, analysts, scientists, and stakeholders. We suggest specific areas for training and instituting SDM to foster transparency, rigor, clarity, and inclusiveness in formal decision processes regarding management of national forests.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS2011

Projected status of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) in the twenty-first century

Extensive and rapid losses of sea ice in the Arctic have raised conservation concerns for the Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ), a large pinniped inhabiting arctic and subarctic continental shelf waters of the Chukchi and Bering seas. We developed a Bayesian network model to integrate potential effects of changing environmental conditions and anthropogenic stressors on the future status of the Pacific walrus population at four periods through the twenty-first century. The model framework allowed for inclusion of various sources and levels of knowledge, and representation of structural and parameter uncertainties. Walrus outcome probabilities through the century reflected a clear trend of worsening conditions for the subspecies. From the current observation period to the end of century, the greatest change in walrus outcome probabilities was a progressive decrease in the outcome state of robust and a concomitant increase in the outcome state of vulnerable. The probabilities of rare and extirpated states each progressively increased but remained <10% through the end of the century. The summed probabilities of vulnerable, rare, and extirpated (P(v,r,e)) increased from a current level of 10% in 2004 to 22% by 2050 and 40% by 2095. The degree of uncertainty in walrus outcomes increased monotonically over future periods. In the model, sea ice habitat (particularly for summer/fall) and harvest levels had the greatest influence on future population outcomes. Other potential stressors had much smaller influences on walrus outcomes, mostly because of uncertainty in their future states and our current poor understanding of their mechanistic influence on walrus abundance.

Polar Biology↗

USGS2009

Rebuttal of "Polar bear population forecasts: a public-policy forecasting audit"

Observed declines in the Arctic sea ice have resulted in a variety of negative effects on polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). Projections for additional future declines in sea ice resulted in a proposal to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. To provide information for the Department of the Interior's listing-decision process, the US Geological Survey (USGS) produced a series of nine research reports evaluating the present and future status of polar bears throughout their range. In response, Armstrong et al. [Armstrong, J. S., K. C. Green, W. Soon. 2008. Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces 38 (5) 382–405], which we will refer to as AGS, performed an audit of two of these nine reports. AGS claimed that the general circulation models upon which the USGS reports relied were not valid forecasting tools, that USGS researchers were not objective or lacked independence from policy decisions, that they did not utilize all available information in constructing their forecasts, and that they violated numerous principles of forecasting espoused by AGS. AGS (p. 382) concluded that the two USGS reports were "unscientific and inconsequential to decision makers." We evaluate the AGS audit and show how AGS are mistaken or misleading on every claim. We provide evidence that general circulation models are useful in forecasting future climate conditions and that corporate and government leaders are relying on these models to do so. We clarify the strict independence of the USGS from the listing decision. We show that the allegations of failure to follow the principles of forecasting espoused by AGS are either incorrect or are based on misconceptions about the Arctic environment, polar bear biology, or statistical and mathematical methods. We conclude by showing that the AGS principles of forecasting are too ambiguous and subjective to be used as a reliable basis for auditing scientific investigations. In summary, we show that the AGS audit offers no valid criticism of the USGS conclusion that global warming poses a serious threat to the future welfare of polar bears and that it only serves to distract from reasoned public-policy debate.

Interfaces↗