Geology topics

Brian R. Gray

Publications and source records attributed to Brian R. Gray.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Estimating submersed aquatic vegetation biomass using a hierarchical Bayesian model of ordinal measurements and structural zeros

This study explores the prediction of a continuous target variable that is primarily measured as an ordinal outcome. Interest in such prediction may occur given data from double- or two-phase sampling designs, where an auxiliary variable is measured at all sampling units and a target and predictor variable, X , at a subset of those units. This study focuses on the case where X is nonnegative, is conditional on a zero process, and is sampled using a cluster sampling design. We model the ordinal outcome using cumulative logistic regression and the conditional regressor X , following log transformation, in a Bayesian setting. Estimation of model parameters and prediction of missing X is generally accurate and precise, particularly with sufficiently large Pr(X > 0) and associated variances. This study is motivated by a need to accurately estimate the biomass of submersed aquatic vegetation on the Upper Mississippi River, where two types of measurements for biomass are available: inexpensive, ordinal biomass scores and expensive, continuous diver-harvested biomass data. Here, X represents plant biomass and Pr(X > 0) is the usual species site occupancy measure. When fit using biomass data from the submerged aquatic vegetation species Vallisneria americana Michx, our model estimates parameters within the parameter space region where the model performed acceptably using synthetic data. We expect this model to appeal to investigators with ordered outcomes, cluster designs, and one or more continuous, positive predictors.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmen↗

USGS2026

Harvest of long-tailed ducks from an important hunting location on Lake Michigan

Annual waterfowl harvest in North America is estimated through a collaborative and strategic process, with federal harvest surveys the primary method of estimation. Sea duck hunters participating in federal harvest surveys represent a small proportion of the overall waterfowl hunting population, limiting the utility of harvest estimates for sea ducks. The long-tailed duck ( Clangula hyemalis ) is one such species. To partially address the paucity of long-tailed duck harvest survey information, we conducted in-person hunter surveys from 1 November through 4 December 2016 at a boat launch in Two Rivers, Wisconsin, USA (Lake Michigan), an important area for long-tailed duck harvest within the state. Hunters were present on 15 of 21 survey days, and we surveyed occupants of 62 individual hunting boats on 127 occasions. Long-tailed ducks were the most common (97%) of the 1,431 sea ducks reported harvested by hunters. Hunter harvest of long-tailed ducks averaged 3.8 (95% CI = 3.4, 4.1; range = 0–6) long-tailed ducks/hunter/day. We used count models to evaluate the effects of environmental variables on hunter participation and harvest of long-tailed ducks. Wave height was the most influential predictor variable for hunter participation; an information criterion-based best model (wave height + temperature) indicated that hunter participation decreased by 91.9% (95% CI = 79.3–97.1%) for each 1-m increase in wave height. Long-tailed duck harvest was positively associated with air temperature; the relationship indicated a 9.5% (95% CI = 6.2–12.9%) increase in long-tailed duck harvest with each degree increase in temperature. Our results contribute to the understanding of waterfowl hunter participation, hunter preferences, and harvest on Lake Michigan and can inform managers as they assess regulatory frameworks for sea duck hunting.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2025

Restoration of Gavia immer (common loon) in Minnesota—2024 annual report

In cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, the U.S. Geological Survey monitored 98 common loon ( Gavia immer ) focal territories and an additional 37 nonfocal territories in 2024 across 53 study lakes in Minnesota. Focal territories were those territories from which study inferences will be made, whereas nonfocal territories were observed to monitor common loon dynamics in territories adjacent to focal territories. In collaboration with lake associations and private citizens, we deployed 44 artificial nesting platforms within 44 treatment territories, and the remaining 54 focal territories were controls. We completed territorial surveys from April 29 to August 9, 2024, to evaluate occupancy, nest success, and chick survival. We attempted to visit each territory once a week. At least one nest attempt was observed in 41 of 54 control territories. Precisely one nest attempt was observed in 30 control territories, two nest attempts (first attempts failed) were observed in 9 control territories, and three nest attempts (first and second attempts failed) were observed in 2 control territories. At least one nest attempt was observed in 33 of 44 treatment territories. Precisely one nest attempt was observed in 25 treatment territories, two nest attempts (first attempts failed) were observed in 7 treatment territories, and three nest attempts (first and second attempts failed) were observed in 1 treatment territory. In treatment territories, 8 nests were on an artificial nesting platform; the remaining nest locations were natural. Chicks or other evidence of hatching were observed in 26 of 54 (48.1 percent) control territories and 21 of 44 (47.7 percent) treatment territories, with 7 of those successful treatment nests on an artificial nesting platform. This report includes no formal analysis, but we plan to analyze data after collection of all field data in subsequent years.

Minnesota↗

USGS2024

Restoration of common loon (Gavia immer) in Minnesota—2023 annual report

The Deepwater Horizon mobile drilling platform exploded on April 20, 2010. The resulting massive oil spill injured natural resources in the Gulf of Mexico, including wintering common loons ( Gavia immer ). We report on activities completed under the “Restoration of Common Loons in Minnesota” project in calendar year 2023, which was funded by the Open Ocean Trustee Implementation Group. In 2022, a subset of monitored breeding territories was identified as focal territories, which are sampling units for the study. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, monitored 98 common loon focal territories and an additional 43 nonfocal territories in 2023 across 56 study lakes in Minnesota. We collaborated with lake associations and private citizens to deploy 42 artificial nesting platforms within 44 focal treatment territories. The remaining 54 focal territories were controls. Territorial surveys were completed from May 8 to August 11, 2023, to evaluate occupancy, nest success, and chick survival. At least one nest attempt was observed in 31 of 44 treatment territories and a second nest attempt was observed after a failed initial attempt in 6 treatment territories. However, only one nest was on an artificial nesting platform in a treatment territory; the remaining nest locations were natural. At least one nest attempt was observed in 37 of 54 control territories, and a second nest attempt was observed after a failed initial attempt in 5 control territories. Chicks or other evidence of hatching were observed in 17 of 54 control territories and 17 of 44 treatment territories, with 1 of those successful treatment nests occurring on an artificial nesting platform. This report includes no formal analysis, but we plan to analyze data after collection of all field data in subsequent years.

Minnesota↗

USGS2023

Responses of native freshwater mussels to remediation to remove polychlorinated biphenyl-contaminated sediments in the upper Hudson River

The Hudson River, New York, was contaminated with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) from two manufacturing plants over a period of approximately 30 years, and PCBs are still present in sediment and biota today. The river provides habitat for a variety of plants and animals, including native freshwater mussels. A remediation programme, consisting of dredging followed by the placement of backfilled sediment and/or a subaqueous cap, was initiated in 2009 to remove PCB-contaminated sediments, and managers were concerned about how remediation could affect the mussels. Quantitative surveys were conducted across nine reaches (pools) to estimate species composition, density, population size, population structure, and ecosystem services of mussel assemblages, pre- and post-remediation. Surveys were stratified into remediated areas (targeted for dredging) and non-remediated areas (not targeted for dredging). Pre-remediation, the river contained a low diversity, and high, but variable, density of mussels that were strongly dominated by Elliptio complanata . The presence of few fresh dead mussels indicates low natural mortality. Frequent recruitment by many species, varied length classes, and high biomass also support robust assemblages that perform important ecosystem services, such as biofiltration. Remedial activity removed most of the mussels and the associated services that they perform: their density was reduced by 83% and their filtration capacity was reduced by 93%, relative to non-remediated areas. Areas that were remediated were almost devoid of adult mussels, but the presence of small mussels indicates that natural recolonization is occurring. However, it is unknown whether these assemblages will persist. As mussels are generally long lived and slow growing, natural recovery is anticipated to be slow, in the order of decades.

New York↗

USGS2023

Restoration of Gavia immer (common loon) in Minnesota—2022 annual report

The explosion of the Deepwater Horizon mobile drilling platform on April 20, 2010, caused a massive oil spill and injury to natural resources in the Gulf of Mexico. Gavia immer (common loon) were negatively affected from the spill. The Open Ocean Trustee Implementation Group funded the project “Restoration of Common Loons in Minnesota” to restore common loons lost to the spill. Here, we report on activities conducted for this project in an eight-county region in Minnesota in calendar year 2022. We identified a subset of territories that were monitored in 2021 as focal territories ( n =99) from which multiyear study inferences can ultimately be made. We monitored nonfocal territories on all study lakes as well. We conducted surveys from May 9 to August 12, 2022. At least 1 nest attempt was observed in 68 of 99 focal territories, and a second nest attempt after a failed initial attempt was observed in 17 focal territories. Chicks or other evidence of hatching was observed in 33 of 99 territories. Data collected in 2021 and 2022 for this project are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey data release ( https://doi.org/10.5066/P9LA536E ). We present no formal data analysis in this report.

Minnesota↗

USGS2023

The relative importance of cisco (Coregonus artedi) in the diets of common loons (Gavia immer) among a set of cisco refuge lakes in Minnesota

Common loon ( Gavia immer (Brünnich, 1764)) foraging patterns and the relative importance of cisco ( Coregonus artedi Lesueur, 1818) in the diets of loons were evaluated for the Whitefish Chain of Lakes, a set of coldwater cisco refuge lakes in Minnesota, USA. Environmental DNA metabarcoding of loon fecal samples detected 15 fish species. Yellow perch ( Perca flavescens (Mitchill, 1814)), mimic shiner ( Notropis volucellus (Cope, 1865)), and cisco were the most prominent prey detected across the study lakes. We observed a shift in fish species consumed, with increases in detections of mimic shiner and cisco DNA among loon fecal samples collected in August and September. In some locations, suitable oxythermal habitat became restricted throughout the summer, forcing cisco into surface waters, which potentially increased their vulnerability to loon predation. Conversely, large foraging aggregations of loons were observed during late summer through fall at locations with ample oxythermal habitat and abundant cisco populations. We hypothesize that cisco were sought by loons as a high-calorie prey resource prior to migration. Conservation efforts directed at preserving water quality in important cisco refuge lakes are likely to benefit common loons through enhancement of both the forage base, for resident and migrating birds, and breeding habitat suitability.

Minnesota↗

USGS2023

Dive characteristics of Common Loons wintering in the Gulf of Mexico and off the southern U.S. Atlantic coast

Common Loons ( Gavia immer ) winter primarily in marine coastal areas and utilize a forage base that is poorly defined, especially for offshore areas. Information on dive activity is needed for describing foraging strategies and for inferring prey distribution. Archival geolocator tags were used to determine the wintering locations and dive characteristics of adult Common Loons captured and marked on breeding lakes in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Among loons that completed fall migration, most wintered in the Gulf of Mexico, with smaller proportions wintering off the southern Atlantic Coast or impoundments in the southeastern United States. Adult Common Loons tended to occupy offshore areas of the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean and, on average, spent about 60% of daylight hours foraging. Dive depths were as deep as 50 m (Gulf of Mexico) and dive characteristics indicated that loons were primarily foraging on benthic prey. Total dive duration, time at maximum depth, and post-dive surface intervals increased with dive depths among wintering Common Loons. Our results are expected to contribute to the understanding of the wintering ecology of Common Loons and be useful in informing regional and national conservation planning efforts.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗

USGS2022

Restoration of Gavia immer (common loon) in Minnesota—2021 annual report

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill caused extensive injury to natural resources in the Gulf of Mexico, and Gavia immer (common loon) were negatively affected from the spill. The Open Ocean Trustee Implementation Group funded the project Restoration of Common Loons in Minnesota to restore common loons lost to the spill. In 2020–21, priority lakes in an eight-county region in north-central Minnesota were identified to focus project activities. In 2021, surveys on these lakes were started to monitor common loon territory occupancy, nest success, and chick survival. We surveyed 62 lakes and identified 110 common loon territories that will be included in the project. At least 1 nest attempt was observed in 78 of 110 territories, and a second nest attempt was observed in 23 territories. A third nest attempt was observed in one territory. Successful nesting was observed in 32 of 110 territories. We present no formal data analysis and plan to analyze the data after the collection of all field data in subsequent years.

Minnesota↗

USGS2021

Migration patterns and wintering distribution of common loons breeding in the Upper Midwest

Identification of geographic linkages among breeding, migratory and wintering common loon Gavia immer populations is needed to inform regional and national conservation planning efforts and compensation of loons lost during marine oil spill events. Satellite telemetry and archival geolocator tags were used to determine the migration patterns and wintering locations of breeding adult and young of the year juvenile common loons captured and marked on lakes in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Adult loons typically traveled from breeding lakes, often via larger staging lakes, to the Great Lakes (primarily Lake Michigan) and then on to wintering areas. Most radiomarked juvenile common loons utilized natal lakes or local lakes through mid-November. Subsequently, the first fall migration of juvenile loons was generally initiated later, and more direct and quicker to wintering areas relative to adults. Among adult (n = 103) and juvenile (n = 23) loons that completed fall migration, most wintered in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), with smaller proportions wintering off the southern Atlantic Coast or impoundments in the southeastern United States. Spring migration of adults to breeding lakes was less prolonged than fall migration, with adult male loons tending to depart wintering areas earlier than adult females. Juvenile common loons migrated during their first spring from wintering sites in the GOM to summer in the Gulf of St Lawrence/Nova Scotia Coastal region. Juvenile mortality was largely linked to parasitic infection and emaciation; spring appeared to be a survival bottleneck among juvenile loons monitored in our study. Our results identify several areas where common loon conservation efforts could be directed to protect key habitats and minimize stressors during the non-breeding period.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2021

Probabilities of detecting submersed aquatic vegetation species using a rake method may vary with biomass

Levels of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) are commonly assessed using a modified garden rake. However, the utility of the rake sampling method relative to methods that are typically viewed as more definitive (and expensive) such as snorkeling and coring remains a matter of debate. This study explores whether probabilities of species detections for four SAV species varied among sampling units in a rake-biomass study and, if so, whether such variation reflected variation in species abundance. Variation in detection probabilities, when unaddressed, may yield biased estimators of percent frequency of occurrence (“occupancy”) and of occurrence-habitat associations. Biomass-driven variation in detection probabilities is important because such variation may not be explainable using covariates typically measured when sampling using the rake method. This study found substantial among-unit variation in detection probabilities, with majorities of that variation on the logit or modeling scale being associated with biomass but not with the non-biomass covariates substrate type, water depth and day of study. The study closes by exploring sampling protocols and modeling methods that may yield improved SAV occupancy estimates.

Aquatic Botany↗

USGS2021

Songbird use of interior and edge floodplain forest sites along the Upper Mississippi River, USA, during spring migration and breeding seasons

Floodplain forests of large rivers in the midwestern United States are naturally fragmented by sloughs, backwaters, wetlands, and shrub carr. On the highly altered Upper Mississippi River (UMR), resource managers want to protect and manage floodplain forests to benefit forest “interior” bird species. To discover bird relations with interior and edge floodplain forest, we characterized bird assemblages during spring migration and breeding season in 3 forest types: habitat in the interior of forest areas > 100 m from an edge, edges associated with interior areas, and other areas of forest not associated with an interior area (random sites) on the UMR between Hastings and Red Wing, Minnesota. The random sites represent the majority of UMR floodplain forest area because only a small percentage of forest occurs >100 m from edge. Estimated habitat characteristics did not differ among interior, edge, and random sites. Bird relative abundance, species richness, diversity, assemblage composition, and detections of all but one species (in spring) did not differ among interior, edge, and random sites during both seasons. Our results suggest a homogeneous bird assemblage across UMR floodplain forest in the study area during spring migration and the breeding season, and that individual forest bird species do not seem to be more abundant in interior or edge areas as we defined them.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2018

Patterns of mercury and selenium exposure in Minnesota common loons

Common loons ( Gavia immer ) are at risk of elevated dietary mercury (Hg) exposure in portions of their breeding range. To assess the level of risk among loons in Minnesota (USA), we investigated loon blood Hg concentrations in breeding lakes across Minnesota. Loon blood Hg concentrations were regressed on predicted Hg concentrations in standardized 12‐cm whole‐organism yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ), based on fish Hg records from Minnesota lakes, using the US Geological Survey National Descriptive Model for Mercury in Fish. A linear model, incorporating common loon sex, age, body mass, and log‐transformed standardized perch Hg concentration representative of each study lake, was associated with 83% of the variability in observed common loon blood Hg concentrations. Loon blood Hg concentration was positively related to standardized perch Hg concentrations; juvenile loons had lower blood Hg concentrations than adult females, and blood Hg concentrations of juveniles increased with body mass. Blood Hg concentrations of all adult common loons and associated standardized prey Hg for all loon capture lakes included in the study were well below proposed thresholds for adverse effects on loon behavior, physiology, survival, and reproductive success. The fish Hg modeling approach provided insights into spatial patterns of dietary Hg exposure risk to common loons across Minnesota. We also determined that loon blood selenium (Se) concentrations were positively correlated with Hg concentration. Average common loon blood Se concentrations exceeded the published provisional threshold.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2018

Flooding tolerance of Sagittaria latifolia and Sagittaria rigida under controlled laboratory conditions

Pool‐scale growing‐season water‐level reductions (drawdowns) have been implemented on the Upper Mississippi River in an effort to improve fish and wildlife habitat. Aquatic vegetation is a key habitat component, with perennial emergent species, such as Sagittaria latifolia and Sagittaria rigida , especially important. River managers have assumed the need for continuous drawdown during the growing season with limited reflooding and used this guidance in assessing the potential for an ecologically successful drawdown. However, information on the effects of growing‐season flooding episodes on survival and growth of Sagittaria is limited. To assess the flooding tolerance of S. latifolia and S. rigida , we evaluated multiple levels of timing, duration, and depth on survival and productivity of plants. Plants were produced from S. latifolia and S. rigida seeds and S. latifolia tubers; all were reared under moist‐soil or shallow‐flooded rearing conditions. Mortality of plants was low (2%) among plants from large tubers, low (7%) among seedlings (and largely associated with early flooding treatments), and modest (11%) among plants from small tubers (with no clear effects of inundation). Flooding treatments generally had a positive effect on biomass production from seedlings, particularly when treatments occurred early, were relatively shallow, and were short in duration. There were no clear effects of depth, duration, or timing components of flooding treatments on plant biomass arising from tubers. This experiment indicates that S. latifolia and S. rigida are relatively tolerant of flooding events during the growing season and may actually benefit from some level of inundation.

River Research and Applications↗

USGS2018

Aquatic vegetation responses to island construction (habitat restoration) in a large floodplain river

The Upper Mississippi River is maintained in its current navigable state through impoundments, dredging, and other engineering projects. These stressors, along with anthropogenic impacts and natural system processes, led to declines in aquatic vegetation and the loss of fish and wildlife habitat, with a major downturn the late 1980s and early 1990s. Large‐scale restoration projects, such as the one evaluated here, are primarily designed to rehabilitate and enhance fish and wildlife habitat. We determined whether an individual restoration project, construction of an island complex, fulfilled a programmatic goal of re‐establishing diverse and abundant native aquatic vegetation. Eighteen years of aquatic vegetation monitoring data from impact and reference areas were compared to evaluate the anticipated direct effects (within 400 m of the constructed islands) and indirect effects (>400 m downstream of constructed islands) of restoration. Impact areas were also compared with an unrestored negative reference area ~200 km downstream of the project and with a positive reference area in adjacent, relatively natural backwaters. Only indirect effects of restoration were evident. Prevalence and species richness of aquatic vegetation in both of the impact areas and in the negative reference area increased prior to restoration, suggesting large‐scale improvement independent of the project examined here. Indirect effects were demonstrated as further increases in both prevalence and species richness coinciding with restoration in the area >400 m downstream of the restoration. We conclude that increased abundance and diversity of aquatic vegetation was partially achieved, with observed improvements potentially linked to reduced wind fetch.

River Research and Applications↗

USGS2018

Effects of air temperature and discharge on Upper Mississippi River summer water temperatures

Recent interest in the potential effects of climate change has prompted studies of air temperature and precipitation associations with water temperatures in rivers and streams. We examined associations between summer surface water temperatures and both air temperature and discharge for 5 reaches of the Upper Mississippi River during 1994–2011. Water–air temperature associations at a given reach approximated 1:1 when estimated under an assumption of reach independence but declined to approximately 1:2 when water temperatures were permitted to covary among reaches and were also adjusted for upstream air temperatures. Estimated water temperature–discharge associations were weak. An apparently novel feature of this study is that of addressing changes in associations between water and air temperatures when both are correlated among reaches.

Upper Mississippi River↗

USGS2018

Distribution and foraging patterns of common loons on Lake Michigan with implications for exposure to type E avian botulism

Common loons ( Gavia immer ) staging on the Great Lakes during fall migration are at risk to episodic outbreaks of type E botulism. Information on distribution, foraging patterns, and exposure routes of loons are needed for understanding the physical and ecological factors that contribute to avian botulism outbreaks. Aerial surveys were conducted to document the spatiotemporal distribution of common loons on Lake Michigan during falls 2011–2013. In addition, satellite telemetry and archival geolocator tags were used to determine the distribution and foraging patterns of individual common loons while using Lake Michigan during fall migration. Common loon distribution observed during aerial surveys and movements of individual radiomarked and/or geotagged loons suggest a seasonal pattern of use, with early fall use of Green Bay and northern Lake Michigan followed by a shift in distribution to southern Lake Michigan before moving on to wintering areas. Common loons tended to occupy offshore areas of Lake Michigan and, on average, spent the majority of daylight hours foraging. Dive depths were as deep as 60 m and dive characteristics suggested that loons were primarily foraging on benthic prey. A recent study concluded that round gobies ( Neogobius melanostomus ) are an important prey item of common loons and may be involved in transmission of botulinum neurotoxin type E. Loon distribution coincides with the distribution of dreissenid mussel biomass, an important food resource for round gobies. Our observations support speculation that energy transfer to higher trophic levels via gobies may occur in deep-water habitats, along with transfer of botulinum neurotoxin.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2018

Separable correlation and maximum likelihood

We consider estimation of the covariance matrix of a multivariate normal distribution when the correlation matrix is separable in the sense that it factors as a Kronecker product of two smaller matrices. A computationally convenient coordinate descent-type algorithm is developed for maximum likelihood estimation. Simulations indicate our method often gives smaller estimation error than some common alternatives when correlation is separable, and that correctly sized tests for correlation separability can be obtained using a parametric bootstrap. Using dissolved oxygen data from the Upper Mississippi River, we illustrate how our model can lead to interesting scientific findings that may be missed when using competing models.

arXiv↗