Geology topics

Brian R. Clark

Publications and source records attributed to Brian R. Clark.

32 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2011

Simulation of water-use conservation scenarios for the Mississippi Delta using an existing regional groundwater flow model

The Mississippi River alluvial plain in northwestern Mississippi (referred to as the Delta), once a floodplain to the Mississippi River covered with hardwoods and marshland, is now a highly productive agricultural region of large economic importance to Mississippi. Water for irrigation is supplied primarily by the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, and although the alluvial aquifer has a large reserve, there is evidence that the current rate of water use from the alluvial aquifer is not sustainable. Using an existing regional groundwater flow model, conservation scenarios were developed for the alluvial aquifer underlying the Delta region in northwestern Mississippi to assess where the implementation of water-use conservation efforts would have the greatest effect on future water availability-either uniformly throughout the Delta, or focused on a cone of depression in the alluvial aquifer underlying the central part of the Delta. Five scenarios were simulated with the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study groundwater flow model: (1) a base scenario in which water use remained constant at 2007 rates throughout the entire simulation; (2) a 5-percent 'Delta-wide' conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 5 percent; (3) a 5-percent 'cone-equivalent' conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 11 percent (a volume equivalent to the 5-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario); (4) a 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 25 percent; and (5) a 25-percent cone-equivalent conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 55 percent (a volume equivalent to the 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario). The Delta-wide scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements (relative to the base scenario) for the entire Delta area than the cone-equivalent scenarios; however, the cone-equivalent scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements within the area of the cone of depression because of focused conservation efforts within that area. Regardless of where conservation is located, the greatest average improvements in water level occur within the area of the cone of depression because of the corresponding large area of unsaturated aquifer material within the area of the cone of depression and the hydraulic gradient, which slopes from the periphery of the Delta towards the area of the cone of depression. Of the four conservation scenarios, the 25-percent cone-equivalent scenario resulted in the greatest increase in storage relative to the base scenario with a 32-percent improvement over the base scenario across the entire Delta and a 60-percent improvement within the area of the cone of depression. Overall, the results indicate that focusing conservation efforts within the area of the cone of depression, rather than distributing conservation efforts uniformly across the Delta, results in greater improvements in the amount of storage within the alluvial aquifer. Additionally, as the total amount of conservation increases (that is, from 5 to 25 percent), the difference in storage improvement between the Delta-wide and cone-equivalent scenarios also increases, resulting in greater gains in storage in the cone-equivalent scenario than in the Delta-wide scenario for the same amount of conservation.

Mississippi↗

USGS2011

Simulation of the effects of groundwater withdrawals on water-level altitudes in the Sparta aquifer in the Bayou Meto-Grand Prairie area of eastern Arkansas, 2007-37

A groundwater-flow model of the Mississippi embayment was used to evaluate changes in water-level altitudes before (scenario 1) and after (scenario 2) the addition of wells that simulate potential future pumping from the Sparta aquifer in the Bayou Meto-Grand Prairie area of eastern Arkansas for the 30-year period from 2007 through 2037. Water-level altitudes at six model cell locations from the two different scenarios were compared for the period 2007 through 2037. Potential future pumping wells were added to the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study model at a rate of 13 wells per year within areas of potential future pumping. Change maps for the Bayou Meto-Grand Prairie area were constructed for each scenario and water-level hydrographs were constructed for each scenario for each of the six model cell locations. The additional pumping from wells in the Sparta aquifer created greater water-level declines in the Bayou Meto-Grand Prairie area. In scenario 1, simulated water-level altitude declines range from 20 to 40 feet from 2007 through 2037. In scenario 2, the cone of depression in Lonoke County is the deepest, with a maximum water-level decline of approximately 102 feet. Water-level altitude declines range from 40 to 50 feet over most of the remainder of the Bayou Meto-Grand Prairie area in scenario 2. Simulated water-level altitudes across the Bayou Meto-Grand Prairie area and at all six model cell locations indicate substantial declines when additional wells pumping from the Sparta aquifer are introduced into the model from 2007 through 2037.

Arkansas↗

USGS2009

The Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS): Documentation of a groundwater-flow model constructed to assess water availability in the Mississippi embayment

The Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS) was conducted with support from the Groundwater Resources Program of the U.S. Geological Survey Office of Groundwater. This report documents the construction and calibration of a finite-difference groundwater model for use as a tool to quantify groundwater availability within the Mississippi embayment. To approximate the differential equation, the MERAS model was constructed with the U.S. Geological Survey's modular three-dimensional finite-difference code, MODFLOW-2005; the preconditioned conjugate gradient solver within MODFLOW-2005 was used for the numerical solution technique. The model area boundary is approximately 78,000 square miles and includes eight States with approximately 6,900 miles of simulated streams, 70,000 well locations, and 10 primary hydrogeologic units. The finite-difference grid consists of 414 rows, 397 columns, and 13 layers. Each model cell is 1 square mile with varying thickness by cell and by layer. The simulation period extends from January 1, 1870, to April 1, 2007, for a total of 137 years and 69 stress periods. The first stress period is simulated as steady state to represent predevelopment conditions. Areal recharge is applied throughout the MERAS model area using the MODFLOW-2005 Recharge Package. Irrigation, municipal, and industrial wells are simulated using the Multi-Node Well Package. There are 43 streams simulated by the MERAS model. Each stream or river in the model area was simulated using the Streamflow-Routing Package. The perimeter of the model area and the base of the flow system are represented as no-flow boundaries. The downgradient limit of each model layer is a no-flow boundary, which approximates the extent of water with less than 10,000 milligrams per liter of dissolved solids. The MERAS model was calibrated by making manual changes to parameter values and examining residuals for hydraulic heads and streamflow. Additional calibration was achieved through alternate use of UCODE-2005 and PEST. Simulated heads were compared to 55,786 hydraulic-head measurements from 3,245 wells in the MERAS model area. Values of root mean square error between simulated and observed hydraulic heads of all observations ranged from 8.33 feet in 1919 to 47.65 feet in 1951, though only six root mean square error values are greater than 40 feet for the entire simulation period. Simulated streamflow generally is lower than measured streamflow for streams with streamflow less than 1,000 cubic feet per second, and greater than measured streamflow for streams with streamflow more than 1,000 cubic feet per second. Simulated streamflow is underpredicted for 18 observations and overpredicted for 10 observations in the model. These differences in streamflow illustrate the large uncertainty in model inputs such as predevelopment recharge, overland flow, pumpage (from stream and aquifer), precipitation, and observation weights. The groundwater-flow budget indicates changes in flow into (inflows) and out of (outflows) the model area during the pregroundwater-irrigation period (pre-1870) to 2007. Total flow (sum of inflows or outflows) through the model ranged from about 600 million gallons per day prior to development to 18,197 million gallons per day near the end of the simulation. The pumpage from wells represents the largest outflow components with a net rate of 18,197 million gallons per day near the end of the model simulation in 2006. Groundwater outflows are offset primarily by inflow from aquifer storage and recharge.

Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississipp↗

USGS2008

Assessing the vulnerability of public-supply wells to contamination—High Plains Aquifer near York, Nebraska

The U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program found, in studies from 1991 to 2001, low levels of mixtures of contaminants in ground water near the water table in urban areas across the Nation. Although contaminants were detected less frequently in deeper ground water typically developed for public supply the proximity of contaminant mixtures to underlying public-water-supply sources prompted the NAWQA Program to begin, in 2001, an intensive study to assess the vulnerability of public-supply wells to contamination. As part of this study, the pathways and processes by which contaminants reach public-supply wells in nine aquifer systems across the country are being investigated. In addition to studying the processes that occur below land surface—whereby contaminants are mobilized or attenuated—scientists are also investigating how human activities can affect the vulnerability of public-supply wells to contamination. This fact sheet highlights findings from two reports on the vulnerability study of a single, representative public-supply well in York, Nebraska. The selected high-capacity well typically produces more than 720,000 gallons per day from the upper confined aquifer of the High Plains aquifer. A possible source of contamination to the well is intensive, irrigated agriculture, which can sometimes result in elevated concentrations of nitrate and pesticides in ground water. In addition, a sampling of the selected public-supply well by the USGS in 2002 found low concentrations of the solvents trichloroethylene (TCE), tetrachloroethylene (PCE), and their degradation products, which may be linked to historical chemical use in urban and residential areas of York. Uranium and arsenic (which occur naturally in the sediments that make up the aquifers in the area) also were detected in 2002 at concentrations less than drinking-water standards but still of concern. Overall, the current NAWQA study found that three primary factors affect the movement and fate of contaminants and the vulnerability of the public-supply well in York: (1) timing of water entry (recharge) to the aquifer, (2) short-circuiting of natural flow paths through inactive wells, and (3) natural geochemical conditions of the aquifer. Study findings are intended to help water managers, drinking-water suppliers, policymakers, and scientists to better understand how and why contamination of public-supply wells occurs and whether water quality may improve or degrade. Additionally, study findings may be used to evaluate various pumping, resource-development, and land-management scenarios.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2008

Simulations of Ground-Water Flow, Transport, Age, and Particle Tracking near York, Nebraska, for a Study of Transport of Anthropogenic and Natural Contaminants (TANC) to Public-Supply Wells

Contamination of public-supply wells has resulted in public-health threats and negative economic effects for communities that must treat contaminated water or find alternative water supplies. To investigate factors controlling vulnerability of public-supply wells to anthropogenic and natural contaminants using consistent and systematic data collected in a variety of principal aquifer settings in the United States, a study of Transport of Anthropogenic and Natural Contaminants to public-supply wells was begun in 2001 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. The area simulated by the ground-water flow model described in this report was selected for a study of processes influencing contaminant distribution and transport along the direction of ground-water flow towards a public-supply well in southeastern York, Nebraska. Ground-water flow is simulated for a 60-year period from September 1, 1944, to August 31, 2004. Steady-state conditions are simulated prior to September 1, 1944, and represent conditions prior to use of ground water for irrigation. Irrigation, municipal, and industrial wells were simulated using the Multi-Node Well package of the modular three-dimensional ground-water flow model code, MODFLOW-2000, which allows simulation of flow and solutes through wells that are simulated in multiple nodes or layers. Ground-water flow, age, and transport of selected tracers were simulated using the Ground-Water Transport process of MODFLOW-2000. Simulated ground-water age was compared to interpreted ground-water age in six monitoring wells in the unconfined aquifer. The tracer chlorofluorocarbon-11 was simulated directly using Ground-Water Transport for comparison with concentrations measured in six monitoring wells and one public supply well screened in the upper confined aquifer. Three alternative model simulations indicate that simulation results are highly sensitive to the distribution of multilayer well bores where leakage can occur and that the calibrated model resulted in smaller differences than the alternative models between simulated and interpreted ages and measured tracer concentrations in most, but not all, wells. Results of the first alternative model indicate that the distribution of young water in the upper confined aquifer is substantially different when well-bore leakage at known abandoned wells and test holes is removed from the model. In the second alternative model, simulated age near the bottom of the unconfined aquifer was younger than interpreted ages and simulated chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations in the upper confined aquifer were zero in five out of six wells because the conventional Well Package fails to account for flow between model layers though well bores. The third alternative model produced differences between simulated and interpreted ground-water ages and measured chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations that were comparable to the calibrated model. However, simulated hydraulic heads deviated from measured hydraulic heads by a greater amount than for the calibrated model. Even so, because the third alternative model simulates steady-state flow, additional analysis was possible using steady-state particle tracking to assess the contributing recharge area to a public supply well selected for analysis of factors contributing to well vulnerability. Results from particle-tracking software (MODPATH) using the third alternative model indicates that the contributing recharge area of the study public-supply well is a composite of elongated, seemingly isolated areas associated with wells that are screened in multiple aquifers. The simulated age distribution of particles at the study public-supply well indicates that all water younger than 58 years travels through well bores of wells screened in multiple aquifers. The age distribution from the steady-state model using MODPATH estimates the youngest 7 percent of the water to have a flow-weighted mean age

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2008

Hydrogeology, Chemical Characteristics, and Transport Processes in the Zone of Contribution of a Public-Supply Well in York, Nebraska

In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey, as part of the National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program, initiated a topical study of Transport of Anthropogenic and Natural Contaminants (TANC) to PSW (public-supply wells). Local-scale and regional-scale TANC study areas were delineated within selected NAWQA study units for intensive study of processes effecting transport of contaminants to PSWs. This report describes results from a local-scale TANC study area at York, Nebraska, within the High Plains aquifer, including the hydrogeology and geochemistry of a 108-square-kilometer study area that contains the zone of contribution to a PSW selected for study (study PSW), and describes factors controlling the transport of selected anthropogenic and natural contaminants to PSWs. Within the local-scale TANC study area, the High Plains aquifer is approximately 75 m (meter) thick, and includes an unconfined aquifer, an upper confining unit, an upper confined aquifer, and a lower confining unit with lower confined sand lenses (units below the upper confining unit are referred to as confined aquifers) in unconsolidated alluvial and glacial deposits overlain by loess and underlain by Cretaceous shale. From northwest to southeast, land use in the local-scale TANC study area changes from predominantly irrigated agricultural land to residential and commercial land in the small community of York (population approximately 8,100). For the purposes of comparing water chemistry, wells were classified by degree of aquifer confinement (unconfined and confined), depth in the unconfined aquifer (shallow and deep), land use (urban and agricultural), and extent of mixing in wells in the confined aquifer with water from the unconfined aquifer (mixed and unmixed). Oxygen (delta 18O) and hydrogen (delta D) stable isotopic values indicated a clear isotopic contrast between shallow wells in the unconfined aquifer (hereinafter, unconfined shallow wells) and most monitoring wells in the confined aquifers (hereinafter, confined unmixed wells). Delta 18O and delta D values for a minority of wells in the confined aquifers were intermediate between those for the unconfined shallow wells and those for the confined unmixed wells. These intermediate values were consistent with mixing of water from unconfined and confined aquifers (hereinafter, confined mixed wells). Oxidation-reduction conditions were primarily oxic in the unconfined aquifer and variably reducing in the confined aquifers. Trace amounts of volatile organic compounds (VOC), particularly tetrachloroethylene (PCE) and trichloroethylene (TCE), were widely detected in unconfined shallow urban wells and indicated the presence of young urban recharge waters in most confined mixed wells. The presence of degradation products of agricultural pesticides (acetochlor and alachlor) in some confined mixed wells suggests that some fraction of the water in these wells also was the result of recharge in agricultural areas. In the unconfined aquifer, age-tracer data (chlorofluorocarbon and sulfur hexafluoride data, and tritium to helium-3 ratios) fit a piston-flow model, with apparent recharge ages ranging from 7 to 48 years and generally increasing with depth. Age-tracer data for the confined aquifers were consistent with mixing of 'old' water, not containing modern tracers recharged in the last 60 years, and exponentially-mixed 'young' water with modern tracers. Confined unmixed wells contained less than (<) 3 percent (%) young water mixed with a much larger fraction greater than or equal to (>=) 97% of old water. Confined mixed wells contained >30% young water and mean ages ranged from 12 to 14 years. Median concentrations of nitrate (as nitrogen, hereinafter, nitrate-N) were 17.3 and 16.0 mg/L (milligram per liter) in unconfined shallow urban and agricultural wells, respectively, indicating a range of likely nitrate sources. Septic systems are most numerous near the edge of the urban area and appear to be

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2008

Digital surfaces and thicknesses of selected hydrogeologic units within the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS)

Digital surfaces of selected Tertiary and younger age hydrogeologic units within the Mississippi embayment aquifer system were created using more than 2,600 geophysical logs for an area that covers approximately 70,000 square miles and encompasses parts of eight states. The digital surfaces were developed to define and display the hydrogeologic framework for the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS). The digital surfaces also provide a foundation of the selected hydrogeologic units for development of a steady-state and transient regional ground-water flow model of the Mississippi embayment aquifer system from the top of the Midway confining unit upwards to land surface. The ground-water flow model is under development as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Ground-Water Resources Program. Using a Geographic Information System, nine digital surfaces of the tops of selected hydrogeologic units were created using the Australian National University Digital Elevation Model method as an interpolation scheme. Thickness maps also were constructed using the Geographic Information System by calculating the difference between the altitude of the interpreted base of an overlying unit and the altitude of the interpreted top of an underlying unit. In general, the highest hydrogeologic unit altitudes are located along the eastern edge of the study area in the outcrop, and the lowest altitudes, in general, are located along the southern edge of the study area along the axis of the embayment. The Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer and the lower Claiborne aquifer are the thinnest aquifers of importance in the study area; the thickest aquifer of importance is the middle Claiborne aquifer.

Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer↗

USGS2008

Geophysical Log Database for the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS)

The Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS) is an investigation of ground-water availability and sustainability within the Mississippi embayment as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Ground-Water Resources Program. The MERAS area consists of approximately 70,000 square miles and encompasses parts of eight states including Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee. More than 2,600 geophysical logs of test holes and wells within the MERAS area were compiled into a database and were used to develop a digital hydrogeologic framework from land surface to the top of the Midway Group of upper Paleocene age. The purpose of this report is to document, present, and summarize the geophysical log database, as well as to preserve the geophysical logs in a digital image format for online access.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2008

Occurrence, Distribution, Sources, and Trends of Elevated Chloride Concentrations in the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer in Southeastern Arkansas

Water-quality data from approximately 2,500 sites were used to investigate the distribution of chloride concentrations in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in southeastern Arkansas. The large volume and areal distribution of the data used for the investigation proved useful in delineating areas of elevated (greater than 100 milligrams per liter) chloride concentrations, assessing potential sources of saline water, and evaluating trends in chloride distribution and concentration over time. Irrigation water containing elevated chloride concentrations is associated with negative effects to rice and soybeans, two of the major crops in Arkansas, and a groundwater chloride concentration of 100 milligrams per liter is recommended as the upper limit for use on rice. As such, accurately delineating areas with high salinity ground water, defining potential sources of chloride, and documenting trends over time is important in assisting the agricultural community in water management. The distribution and range of chloride concentrations in the study area revealed distinct areas of elevated chloride concentrations. Area I includes an elongated, generally northwest-southeast trending band of moderately elevated chloride concentrations in the northern part of the study area. This band of elevated chloride concentrations is approximately 40 miles in length and varies from approximately 2 to 9 miles in width, with a maximum chloride concentration of 360 milligrams per liter. Area II is a narrow, north-south trending band of elevated chloride concentrations in the southern part of the study area, with a maximum chloride concentration of 1,639 milligrams per liter. A zone of chloride concentrations exceeding 200 milligrams per liter is approximately 25 miles in length and 5 to 6 miles in width. In Area I, low chloride concentrations in samples from wells completed in the alluvial aquifer next to the Arkansas River and in samples from the upper Claiborne aquifer, which underlies the alluvial aquifer, indicate that leakage from the river and upward flow of saline water in underlying aquifers are not likely sources for the saline water in the alluvial aquifer in Area I. A good comparison was noted for chloride concentrations in Area I and surface geomorphology. In the majority of cases, elevated chloride concentrations occurred in backswamp deposits, with low concentrations (less than 50 milligrams per liter) in areas of active or abandoned channel deposits. The fine-grained, clay-rich deposits associated with backswamp areas likely restrict recharge, induce increased ratios between evapotranspiration and recharge, and experience minimal flushing of salts concentrated during evapotranspiration. In Area II, chloride isoconcentration maps of the underlying upper Claiborne aquifer, in addition to samples from wells completed in the middle and lower Claiborne aquifers, showed a similar chloride distribution to that of the alluvial aquifer with decreasing chloride concentrations to the east of the zone of elevated chloride concentrations, which suggests a deeper source of saline water that affects Tertiary and Quaternary aquifer systems. Mixing curves developed from bromide/chloride ratios in water samples from the alluvial aquifer, Tertiary aquifers, and samples of brine water from the Jurrasic Smackover Formation additionally discounted upward flow of saline water from underlying Tertiary formations as a potential mechanism for salinity in the alluvial aquifer in Area II. A review of information on oil exploration wells in Chicot County revealed that most of these wells were drilled from 1960 to 1980, after the elevated chloride concentrations were detected in the early 1950s. The elongated nature of the zone of elevated chloride concentrations in Area II suggests a line source or linear conduit connection with the source. Maps of a fractured limestone in the Smackover Formation in Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana for purpose

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2004

Conjunctive-use optimization model and sustainable-yield estimation for the Sparta aquifer of southeastern Arkansas and north-central Louisiana

Conjunctive-use optimization modeling was done to assist water managers and planners by estimating the maximum amount of ground water that hypothetically could be withdrawn from wells within the Sparta aquifer indefinitely without violating hydraulic-head or stream-discharge constraints. The Sparta aquifer is largely a confined aquifer of regional importance that comprises a sequence of unconsolidated sand units that are contained within the Sparta Sand. In 2000, more than 35.4 million cubic feet per day (Mft3/d) of water were withdrawn from the aquifer by more than 900 wells, primarily for industry, municipal supply, and crop irrigation in Arkansas. Continued, heavy withdrawals from the aquifer have caused several large cones of depression, lowering hydraulic heads below the top of the Sparta Sand in parts of Union and Columbia Counties and several areas in north-central Louisiana. Problems related to overdraft in the Sparta aquifer can result in increased drilling and pumping costs, reduced well yields, and degraded water quality in areas of large drawdown. A finite-difference ground-water flow model was developed for the Sparta aquifer using MODFLOW, primarily in eastern and southeastern Arkansas and north-central Louisiana. Observed aquifer conditions in 1997 supported by numerical simulations of ground-water flow show that continued pumping at withdrawal rates representative of 1990 - 1997 rates cannot be sustained indefinitely without causing hydraulic heads to drop substantially below the top of the Sparta Sand in southern Arkansas and north-central Louisiana. Areas of ground-water levels below the top of the Sparta Sand have been designated as Critical Ground-Water Areas by the State of Arkansas. A steady-state conjunctive-use optimization model was developed to simulate optimized surface-water and ground-water withdrawals while maintaining hydraulic-head and streamflow constraints, thus determining the 'sustainable yield' for the aquifer. Initial attempts to estimate sustainable yield using simulated 1997 hydraulic heads as initial heads in Scenario 1 and 100 percent of the baseline 1990-1997 withdrawal rate as the lower specified limit in Scenario 2 led to infeasible results. Sustainable yield was estimated successfully for scenario 3 with three variations on the upper limit of withdrawal rates. Additionally, ground-water withdrawals in Union County were fixed at 35.6 percent of the baseline 1990-1997 withdrawal rate in Scenario 3. These fixed withdrawals are recognized by the Arkansas Soil and Water Conservation Commission to be sustainable as determined in a previous study. The optimized solutions maintained hydraulic heads at or above the top of the Sparta Sand (except in the outcrop areas where unconfined conditions occur) and streamflow within the outcrop areas was maintained at or above minimum levels. Scenario 3 used limits of 100, 150, and 200 percent of baseline 1990-1997 withdrawal rates for the upper specified limit on 1,119 withdrawal decision variables (managed wells) resulting in estimated sustainable yields ranging from 11.6 to 13.2 Mft3/d in Arkansas and 0.3 to 0.5 Mft3/d in Louisiana. Assuming the total 2 Conjunctive-Use Optimization Model and Sustainable-Yield Estimation for the Sparta Aquifer of Southeastern Arkansas and North-Central Louisiana water demand is equal to the baseline 1990-1997 withdrawal rates, the sustainable yields estimated from the three scenarios only provide 52 to 59 percent of the total ground-water demand for Arkansas; the remainder is defined as unmet demand that could be obtained from large, sustainable surface-water withdrawals.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2003

Development and calibration of a ground-water flow model for the Sparta Aquifer of southeastern Arkansas and north-central Louisiana and simulated response to withdrawals, 1998-2027

The Sparta aquifer, which consists of the Sparta Sand, in southeastern Arkansas and north-central Louisiana is a major water resource and provides water for municipal, industrial, and agricultural uses. In recent years, the demand in some areas has resulted in withdrawals from the Sparta aquifer that substantially exceed replenishment of the aquifer. Considerable drawdown has occurred in the potentiometric surface forming regional cones of depression as water is removed from storage by withdrawals. These cones of depression are centered beneath the Grand Prairie area and the cities of Pine Bluff and El Dorado in Arkansas, and Monroe in Louisiana. The rate of decline for hydraulic heads in the aquifer has been greater than 1 foot per year for more than a decade in much of southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana where hydraulic heads are now below the top of the Sparta Sand. Continued hydraulic-head declines have caused water users and managers alike to question the ability of the aquifer to supply water for the long term. Concern over protecting the Sparta aquifer as a sustainable resource has resulted in a continued, cooperative effort by the Arkansas Soil and Water Conservation Commission, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the U.S. Geological Survey to develop, maintain, and utilize numerical ground-water flow models to manage and further analyze the ground-water system. The work presented in this report describes the development and calibration of a ground-water flow model representing the Sparta aquifer to simulate observed hydraulic heads, documents major differences in the current Sparta model compared to the previous Sparta model calibrated in the mid-1980's, and presents the results of three hypothetical future withdrawal scenarios. The current Sparta model-a regional scale, three-dimensional numerical ground-water flow model-was constructed and calibrated using available hydrogeologic, hydraulic, and water-use data from 1898 to 1997. Significant changes from the previous model include grid rediscretization of the aquifer, extension of the active model area northward beyond the Cane River Formation facies change, and representation of model boundaries. The current model was calibrated with the aid of parameter estimation, a nonlinear regression technique, combined with trial and error parameter adjustment using a total of 795 observations from 316 wells over 4 different years-1970, 1985, 1990, and 1997. The calibration data set provides broad spatial and temporal coverage of aquifer conditions. Analysis of the residual statistics, spatial distribution of residuals, simulated compared to observed hydrographs, and simulated compared to observed potentiometric surfaces were used to analyze the ability of the calibrated model to simulate aquifer conditions within acceptable error. The calibrated model has a root mean square error of 18 feet for all observations, an improvement of more than 12 feet from the previous model. The current Sparta model was used to predict the effects of three hypothetical withdrawal scenarios on hydraulic heads over the period 1998-2027 with one of those extended indefinitely until equilibrium conditions were attained, or steady state. In scenario 1a, withdrawals representing the time period from 1990 to 1997 was held constant for 30 years from 1998 to 2027. Hydraulic heads in the middle of the cone of depression centered on El Dorado decreased by 10 feet from the 1997 simulation to 222 feet below NGVD of 1929 in 2027. Hydraulic heads in the Pine Bluff cone of depression showed a greater decline from 61 feet below NGVD of 1929 to 78 feet below NGVD of 1929 in the center of the cone. With these same withdrawals extended to steady state (scenario 1b), hydraulic heads in the Pine Bluff cone of depression center declined an 2 Development and Calibration of a Ground-Water Flow Model for the Sparta Aquifer of Southeastern Arkansas and North-Central Louisiana and Simulated Response to Withdrawa

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2003

Conjunctive-use optimization model of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer of northeastern Arkansas

The Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer is a water-bearing assemblage of gravels and sands that underlies about 32,000 square miles of Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Because of the heavy demands placed on the aquifer, several large cones of depression over 100 feet deep have formed in the potentiometric surface, resulting in lower well yields and degraded water quality in some areas. A ground-water flow model of the alluvial aquifer was previously developed for an area covering 14,104 square miles, extending northeast from the Arkansas River into the northeast corner of Arkansas and parts of southeastern Missouri. The flow model showed that continued ground-water withdrawals at rates commensurate with those of 1997 could not be sustained indefinitely without causing water levels to decline below half the original saturated thickness of the aquifer. To develop estimates of withdrawal rates that could be sustained in compliance with the constraints of critical ground-water area designation, conjunctive-use optimization modeling was applied to the flow model of the alluvial aquifer in northeastern Arkansas. Ground-water withdrawal rates form the basis for estimates of sustainable yield from the alluvial aquifer and from rivers specified within the alluvial aquifer model. A management problem was formulated as one of maximizing the sustainable yield from all ground-water and surface-water withdrawal cells within limits imposed by plausible withdrawal rates, and within specified constraints involving hydraulic head and streamflow. Steady-state flow conditions were selected because the maximized withdrawals are intended to represent sustainable yield of the system (a rate that can be maintained indefinitely). Within the optimization model, 11 rivers are specified. Surface-water diversion rates that occurred in 2000 were subtracted from specified overland flow at the appropriate river cells. Included in these diversions were the planned diversions of 63,339,248 ft3/d for the Bayou Meto project area and 55,078,367 ft3/d for the Grand Prairie project area, which factor in an additional 30 and 40 percent transmission loss, respectively. Streamflow constraints were specified at all 1,165 river cells based on average 7-day minimum flows for 10 years. Sustainable yield for all rivers ranged from 0 (Current, Little Red, and Bayou Meto Rivers) to almost 5 billion cubic feet per day for the Arkansas River. Total sustainable yield from all rivers combined was 12.8 billion cubic feet per day, which represents a substantial source for supplementing ground water to meet the total water demand. Sustainable-yield estimates are affected by the allowable upper limit on withdrawals from wells specified in the optimization model. Ground-water withdrawal rates were allowed to vary as much as 200 percent of the withdrawal rate in 1997. As the overall upper limit on withdrawals is increased, the sustainable yield generally increases. Tests with the optimization model show that without limits on pumping, wells adjacent to sources of water would have optimized withdrawal rates that were orders of magnitude larger than rates corresponding to those of 1997. The sustainable yield from ground water for the entire study area while setting the maximum upper limit as the amount withdrawn in 1997 is 360 million cubic feet per day, which is only about 57 percent of the amount withdrawn in 1997 (635.6 million cubic feet per day). Optimal sustainable yields from within the Bayou Meto irrigation project area and within the Grand Prairie irrigation project area are 18.1 and 9.1 million cubic feet per day, respectively, assuming a maximum allowable withdrawal rate equal to 1997 rates. These values of sustainable yield represent 35 and 30 percent respectively of the amount pumped from these project areas in 1997. Unmet demand (defined as the difference between the optimized withdrawal rate or sustainable yield, and the anticipated demand) was calculated using different demand rates based on multiples of the 1997 withdrawal rate. Assuming that demand is the 1997 withdrawal rate, and that sustainable-yield estimates are those obtained using upper limits of withdrawal rates of 100-, 150-, and 200-percent of 1997 withdrawal rates, then the resulting unmet demand for the entire model area is 275.5, 190.9, and 110 million cubic feet per day, respectively. Whereas, if the demand is specified as 100-, 150-, and 200-percent of the 1997 withdrawal rate, and the sustainable-yield estimates remain the same, then the resulting unmet demand for the entire model area is 275.5, 508.8, and 745.8 million cubic feet per day, respectively. These unmet demands for ground water could be obtained from large sustainable surface-water withdrawals.

Arkansas↗

USGS2003

Recalibration of a ground-water flow model of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in southeastern Arkansas, 1918-1998, with simulations of hydraulic heads caused by projected ground-water withdrawals through 2049

To evaluate the effects of projected ground water withdrawals, three scenarios were used to simulate a range of possible withdrawals. Five additional stress periods of 10 years each were added to the model to facilitate predictive scenario generation. The predictive scenarios control pumpage by either continuing 1997 pumpage into the future (scenario 1) or by increasing water-use trends into the future (scenario 2 and 3). The ASWCC Critical Ground Water area designation includes a requirement that a 50-percent saturated formation thickness be maintained. For this reason, the level of 50-percent saturated formation thickness is used as a reference surface in the scenario output presented. Animations of simulated heads changing through time are included on the compact disc in the "Animations" folder. In the animations, the level of 50 percent saturated formation thickness is indicated by a mesh surface and the dry cells appear as voids in the model surface.

Arkansas↗

USGS2003

Conjunctive-use optimization model of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer of Southeastern Arkansas

The Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer is a water-bearing assemblage of gravels and sands that underlies about 32,000 square miles of Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Because of the heavy demands placed on the aquifer, several large cones of depression have formed in the potentiometric surface, resulting in lower well yields and degraded water quality in some areas. A ground-water flow model of the alluvial aquifer was previously developed for an area covering 3,826 square miles, extending south from the Arkansas River into the southeastern corner of Arkansas, parts of northeastern Louisiana, and western Mississippi. The flow-model results indicated that continued ground-water withdrawals at rates commensurate with those of 1997 could not be sustained indefinitely without causing water levels to decline below half the original saturated thickness of the aquifer. Conjunctive-use optimization modeling was applied to the flow model of the alluvial aquifer to develop withdrawal rates that could be sustained relative to the constraints of critical ground-water area designation. These withdrawal rates form the basis for estimates of sustainable yield from the alluvial aquifer and from rivers specified within the alluvial aquifer model. A management problem was formulated as one of maximizing the sustainable yield from all ground-water and surface-water withdrawal cells within limits imposed by plausible withdrawal rates, and within specified constraints involving hydraulic head and streamflow. Steady-state conditions were selected because the maximized withdrawals are intended to represent sustainable yield of the system (a rate that can be maintained indefinitely).One point along the Arkansas River and one point along Bayou Bartholomew were specified for obtaining surface-water sustainable-yield estimates within the optimization model. Streamflow constraints were specified at two river cells based on average 7-day low flows with 10-year recurrence intervals. Sustainable-yield estimates were affected by the allowable upper limit on withdrawals from wells specified in the optimization model. Withdrawal rates were allowed to increase to 200 percent of the withdrawal rate in 1997. As the overall upper limit is increased, the sustainable yield generally increases. Tests with the optimization model show that without limits on pumping, wells adjacent to sources of water, such as large rivers, would have optimal withdrawal rates that were orders of magnitude larger than rates corresponding to those of 1997. Specifying an upper withdrawal limit of 100 percent of the 1997 withdrawal rate, the sustainable yield from ground water for the entire study area is 70.3 million cubic feet per day, which is about 96 percent of the amount withdrawn in 1997 (73.5 million cubic feet per day). If the upper withdrawal limit is increased to 150 percent of the 1997 withdrawal rate, the sustainable yield from ground water for the entire study area is 80.6 million cubic feet per day, which is about 110 percent of the amount withdrawn in 1997. If the upper withdrawal limit is increased to 200 percent of the 1997 withdrawal rate, the sustainable yield from ground water for the entire study area is 110.2 million cubic feet per day, which is about 150 percent of the amount withdrawn in 1997. Total sustainable yield from the Arkansas River and Bayou Bartholomew is about 4,900 million cubic feet per day, or about 6,700 percent of the amount of ground-water withdrawn in 1997. The large, sustainable yields from surface water represent a potential source of water that could supplement ground water and meet the total water demand. Unmet demand (defined as the difference between the optimized withdrawal rate or sustainable yield, and the anticipated demand) was calculated using different demand rates based on multiples of the 1997-withdrawal rate. Assuming that demand is the 1997 withdrawal rate, and that sustainable-

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗