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Brian P. Kelly

Publications and source records attributed to Brian P. Kelly.

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Groundwater and streamflow information program Kansas Cooperative Water Science since 1895

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with State, local, and other Federal agencies, operates a network of streamgages throughout the State of Kansas. Data provided by this network are used to forecast floods, operate reservoirs, develop water policy, administer regulation of water, and perform interpretive analyses of streamflow. This data collection and analysis effort has been sustained since 1895 through cooperative matching fund programs that allow the USGS to work with cooperative agencies to solve groundwater and surface water challenges that affect citizens locally and throughout the Nation.

Kansas

Science programs in Kansas

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is a non-regulatory Earth science agency within the Department of the Interior that provides impartial scientific information to describe and understand the health of our ecosystems and environment; minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources; and enhance and protect our quality of life. The USGS cooperates with Federal, State, tribal, and local agencies in Kansas to deliver long-term data in real-time and interpretive reports describing what those data mean to the public and resource management agencies. USGS science programs in Kansas provide real-time groundwater monitoring at more than 19 locations; streamflow monitoring at more than 216 locations; water-quality and trends in the Little Arkansas and Kansas Rivers; inflows and outflows of sediment to/from reservoirs and in streams; harmful algal bloom research in the Kansas River, Milford Lake, and Cheney Reservoir; water-quantity and water-quality effects of artificial groundwater recharge for the Equus Beds Aquifer Storage and Recovery project near Wichita, Kansas; compilation of Kansas municipal and irrigation water-use data statewide; the occurrence, effects, and movement of environmental pesticides, antibiotics, algal toxins, and taste-and-odor compounds; and funding to the Kansas Water Resources Research Institute to further research and education through Kansas universities.

Kansas

Flood-inundation mapping for the Blue River and selected tributaries in Kansas City, Missouri, and vicinity, 2012

Kansas City, Missouri, has severely flooded many times, most notably in 1951, 1961, 1977, 1984, 1990, 1998, and 2010. During the past 30 years these floods resulted in damages within Kansas City costing tens of millions of dollars and more than 25 casualties. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and City of Kansas City, Missouri, operate multiple streamgages along the Blue River and tributaries in and near the city. Knowledge of water level at a streamgage is difficult to translate into depth and areal extent of flooding at points distant from the streamgage. One way to address these informational gaps is to produce a library of flood-inundation maps that are referenced to the stages recorded at a streamgage. By referring to the appropriate map, emergency responders can discern the severity of flooding (depth of water and areal extent), identify roads that are or may be flooded, and make plans for notification or evacuation of residents in harm’s way for some distance upstream and downstream from the streamgage. The USGS, in cooperation with the city of Kansas City, Missouri, developed a library of flood-inundation maps for the Blue River and selected tributaries.

Missouri

Flood-inundation maps and wetland restoration suitability index for the Blue River and selected tributaries, Kansas City, Missouri, and vicinity, 2012

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 39.7-mile reach of the Blue River and selected tributaries (Brush Creek, Indian Creek, and Dyke Branch) at Kansas City, Missouri, and vicinity, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the City of Kansas City, Missouri. The flood-inundation maps, accessed through the USGS Flood-Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the spatial extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at 15 reference streamgages and associated stream reaches in the Blue River Basin. Near-real-time stage data from the streamgages may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ or the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/, which also forecasts flood hydrographs at selected sites. Flood profiles were computed for each of 15 reaches by means of one-dimensional or two-dimensional hydraulic models. The models were calibrated by using the current stage-streamflow relations at 10 USGS streamgages and documented high-water marks from the flood of June 14, 2010. Hydraulic models were then used to compute water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from the National Weather Service Action stage, or near bankfull streamflow, through the stage corresponding to, or exceeding, the estimated 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flood (500-year recurrence interval flood). The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system (GIS) terrain model derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data having a vertical accuracy of less than 0.6 foot and maximum nominal horizontal post spacing of 2.46–3.28 feet to delineate the area flooded at each 1-foot increment of stage. The availability of these flood-inundation maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgages and forecasted high-flow stages from the NWS, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts. Additional information in this report includes maps of simulated stream velocity for an 8.2-mile, two-dimensional modeled reach of the Blue River and a Wetland Restoration Suitability Index (WRSI) generated for the study area that was based on hydrologic, topographic, and land-use digital feature layers. The calculated WRSI for the selected flood-plain area ranged from 1 (least suitable for possible wetland mitigation efforts) to 10 (most suitable for possible wetland mitigation efforts). A WRSI of 5 to 10 is most closely associated with existing riparian wetlands in the study area. The WRSI allows for the identification of lands along the Blue River and selected tributaries that are most suitable for restoration or creation of wetlands. Alternatively, the index can be used to identify and avoid disturbances to areas with the highest potential to support healthy sustainable riparian wetlands.

Missouri

Preliminary simulation of chloride transport in the Equus Beds aquifer and simulated effects of well pumping and artificial recharge on groundwater flow and chloride transport near the city of Wichita, Kansas, 1990 through 2008

The Equus Beds aquifer in south-central Kansas is a primary water-supply source for the city of Wichita. Water-level declines because of groundwater pumping for municipal and irrigation needs as well as sporadic drought conditions have caused concern about the adequacy of the Equus Beds aquifer as a future water supply for Wichita. In March 2006, the city of Wichita began construction of the Equus Beds Aquifer Storage and Recovery project, a plan to artificially recharge the aquifer with excess water from the Little Arkansas River. Artificial recharge will raise groundwater levels, increase storage volume in the aquifer, and deter or slow down a plume of chloride brine approaching the Wichita well field from the Burrton, Kansas area caused by oil production activities in the 1930s. Another source of high chloride water to the aquifer is the Arkansas River. This study was prepared in cooperation with the city of Wichita as part of the Equus Beds Aquifer Storage and Recovery project. Chloride transport in the Equus Beds aquifer was simulated between the Arkansas and Little Arkansas Rivers near the Wichita well field. Chloride transport was simulated for the Equus Beds aquifer using SEAWAT, a computer program that combines the groundwater-flow model MODFLOW-2000 and the solute-transport model MT3DMS. The chloride-transport model was used to simulate the period from 1990 through 2008 and the effects of five well pumping scenarios and one artificial recharge scenario. The chloride distribution in the aquifer for the beginning of 1990 was interpolated from groundwater samples from around that time, and the chloride concentrations in rivers for the study period were interpolated from surface water samples. Five well-pumping scenarios and one artificial-recharge scenario were assessed for their effects on simulated chloride transport and water levels in and around the Wichita well field. The scenarios were: (1) existing 1990 through 2008 pumping conditions, to serve as a baseline scenario for comparison with the hypothetical scenarios; (2) no pumping in the model area, to demonstrate the chloride movement without the influence of well pumping; (3) double municipal pumping from the Wichita well field with existing irrigation pumping; (4) existing municipal pumping with no irrigation pumping in the model area; (5) double municipal pumping in the Wichita well field and no irrigation pumping in the model area; and (6) increasing artificial recharge to the Phase 1 Artificial Storage and Recovery project sites by 2,300 acre-feet per year. The effects of the hypothetical pumping and artificial recharge scenarios on simulated chloride transport were measured by comparing the rate of movement of the 250-milligrams-per-liter-chloride front for each hypothetical scenario with the baseline scenario at the Arkansas River area near the southern part of the Wichita well field and the Burrton plume area. The scenarios that increased the rate of movement the most compared to the baseline scenario of existing pumping between the Arkansas River and the southern boundary of the well field were those that doubled the city of Wichita’s pumping from the well field (scenarios 3 and 5), increasing the rate of movement by 50 to 150 feet per year, with the highest rate increases in the shallow layer and the lowest rate increases in the deepest layer. The no pumping and no irrigation pumping scenarios (2 and 4) slowed the rate of movement in this area by 150 to 210 feet per year and 40 to 70 feet per year, respectively. In the double Wichita pumping scenario (3), the rate of movement in the shallow layer of the Burrton area decreased by about 50 feet per year. Simulated chloride rate of movement in the deeper layers of the Burrton area was decreased in the no pumping and no irrigation scenarios (2 and 4) by 80 to 120 feet per year and 50 feet per year, respectively, and increased in the scenarios that double Wichita’s pumping (3 and 5) from the well field by zero to 130 feet per year, with the largest increases in the deepest layer. In the increased Phase 1 artificial recharge scenario (6), the rate of chloride movement in the Burrton area increased in the shallow layer by about 30 feet per year, and decreased in the middle and deepest layer by about 10 and 60 feet per year, respectively. Comparisons of the rate of movement of the simulated 250-milligrams-per-liter-chloride front in the hypothetical scenarios to the baseline scenario indicated that, in general, increases to pumping in the well field area increased the rate of simulated chloride movement toward the well field area by as much as 150 feet per year. Reductions in pumping slowed the advance of chloride toward the well field by as much as 210 feet per year, although reductions did not stop the movement of chloride toward the well field, including when pumping rates were eliminated. If pumping is completely discontinued, the rate of chloride movement is about 500 to 600 feet per year in the area between the Arkansas River and the southern part of the Wichita well field, and 70 to 500 feet per year in the area near Burrton with the highest rate of movement in the shallow aquifer layer. The averages of simulated water-levels in index monitoring wells in the Wichita well field at the end of 2008 were calculated for each scenario. Compared to the baseline scenario, the average simulated water level was 5.05 feet higher for the no pumping scenario, 4.72 feet lower for the double Wichita pumping with existing irrigation scenario, 2.49 feet higher for the no irrigation pumping with existing Wichita pumping scenario, 1.53 feet lower for the double Wichita pumping with no irrigation scenario, and 0.48 feet higher for the increased Phase 1 artificial recharge scenario. The groundwater flow was simulated with a preexisting groundwater-flow model, which was not altered to calibrate the solute-transport model to observed chloride-concentration data. Therefore, some areas in the model had poor fit between simulated chloride concentrations and observed chloride concentrations, including the area between Arkansas River and the southern part of the Wichita well field, and the Hollow-Nikkel area about 6 miles north of Burrton. Compared to the interpreted location of the 250-milligrams per liter-chloride front based on data collected in 2011, in the Arkansas River area the simulated 250-milligrams per liter-chloride front moved from the river toward the well field about twice the rate of the actual 250-milligrams per liter-chloride front in the shallow layer and about four times the rate of the actual 250-milligrams per liter-chloride front in the deep layer. Future groundwater-flow and chloride-transport modeling efforts may achieve better agreement between observed and simulated chloride concentrations in these areas by taking the chloride-transport model fit into account when adjusting parameters such as hydraulic conductivity, riverbed conductance, and effective porosity during calibration. Results of the hypothetical scenarios simulated indicate that the Burrton chloride plume will continue moving toward the well field regardless of pumping in the area and that one alternative may be to increase pumping from within the plume area to reverse the groundwater-flow gradients and remove the plume. Additionally, the results of modeling these scenarios indicate that eastward movement of the Burrton plume could be slowed by the additional artificial recharge at the Phase 1 sites and that decreasing pumping along the Arkansas River or increasing water levels could retard the movement of chloride and may prevent further encroachment into the southern part of the well field area.

Kansas

Simulation of groundwater flow, effects of artificial recharge, and storage volume changes in the Equus Beds aquifer near the city of Wichita, Kansas well field, 1935–2008

The Equus Beds aquifer is a primary water-supply source for Wichita, Kansas and the surrounding area because of shallow depth to water, large saturated thickness, and generally good water quality. Substantial water-level declines in the Equus Beds aquifer have resulted from pumping groundwater for agricultural and municipal needs, as well as periodic drought conditions. In March 2006, the city of Wichita began construction of the Equus Beds Aquifer Storage and Recovery project to store and later recover groundwater, and to form a hydraulic barrier to the known chloride-brine plume near Burrton, Kansas. In October 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Wichita, began a study to determine groundwater flow in the area of the Wichita well field, and chloride transport from the Arkansas River and Burrton oilfield to the Wichita well field. Groundwater flow was simulated for the Equus Beds aquifer using the three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model MODFLOW-2000. The model simulates steady-state and transient conditions. The groundwater-flow model was calibrated by adjusting model input data and model geometry until model results matched field observations within an acceptable level of accuracy. The root mean square (RMS) error for water-level observations for the steady-state calibration simulation is 9.82 feet. The ratio of the RMS error to the total head loss in the model area is 0.049 and the mean error for water-level observations is 3.86 feet. The difference between flow into the model and flow out of the model across all model boundaries is -0.08 percent of total flow for the steady-state calibration. The RMS error for water-level observations for the transient calibration simulation is 2.48 feet, the ratio of the RMS error to the total head loss in the model area is 0.0124, and the mean error for water-level observations is 0.03 feet. The RMS error calculated for observed and simulated base flow gains or losses for the Arkansas River for the transient simulation is 7,916,564 cubic feet per day (91.6 cubic feet per second) and the RMS error divided by (/) the total range in streamflow (7,916,564/37,461,669 cubic feet per day) is 22 percent. The RMS error calculated for observed and simulated streamflow gains or losses for the Little Arkansas River for the transient simulation is 5,610,089 cubic feet per day(64.9 cubic feet per second) and the RMS error divided by the total range in streamflow (5,612,918/41,791,091 cubic feet per day) is 13 percent. The mean error between observed and simulated base flow gains or losses was 29,999 cubic feet per day (0.34 cubic feet per second) for the Arkansas River and -1,369,250 cubic feet per day (-15.8 cubic feet per second) for the Little Arkansas River. Cumulative streamflow gain and loss observations are similar to the cumulative simulated equivalents. Average percent mass balance difference for individual stress periods ranged from -0.46 to 0.51 percent. The cumulative mass balance for the transient calibration was 0.01 percent. Composite scaled sensitivities indicate the simulations are most sensitive to parameters with a large areal distribution. For the steady-state calibration, these parameters include recharge, hydraulic conductivity, and vertical conductance. For the transient simulation, these parameters include evapotranspiration, recharge, and hydraulic conductivity. The ability of the calibrated model to account for the additional groundwater recharged to the Equus Beds aquifer as part of the Aquifer Storage and Recovery project was assessed by using the U.S. Geological Survey subregional water budget program ZONEBUDGET and comparing those results to metered recharge for 2007 and 2008 and previous estimates of artificial recharge. The change in storage between simulations is the volume of water that estimates the recharge credit for the aquifer storage and recovery system. The estimated increase in storage of 1,607 acre-ft in the basin storage area compared to metered recharge of 1,796 acre-ft indicates some loss of metered recharge. Increased storage outside of the basin storage area of 183 acre-ft accounts for all but 6 acre-ft or 0.33 percent of the total. Previously estimated recharge credits for 2007 and 2008 are 1,018 and 600 acre-ft, respectively, and a total estimated recharge credit of 1,618 acre-ft. Storage changes calculated for this study are 4.42 percent less for 2007 and 5.67 percent more for 2008 than previous estimates. Total storage change for 2007 and 2008 is 0.68 percent less than previous estimates. The small difference between the increase in storage from artificial recharge estimated with the groundwater-flow model and metered recharge indicates the groundwater model correctly accounts for the additional water recharged to the Equus Beds aquifer as part of the Aquifer Storage and Recovery project. Small percent differences between inflows and outflows for all stress periods and all index cells in the basin storage area, improved calibration compared to the previous model, and a reasonable match between simulated and measured long-term base flow indicates the groundwater model accurately simulates groundwater flow in the study area. The change in groundwater level through recent years compared to the August 1940 groundwater level map has been documented and used to assess the change of storage volume of the Equus Beds aquifer in and near the Wichita well field for three different areas. Two methods were used to estimate changes in storage from simulation results using simulated change in groundwater levels in layer 1 between stress periods, and using ZONEBUDGET to calculate the change in storage in the same way the effects of artificial recharge were estimated within the basin storage area. The three methods indicate similar trends although the magnitude of storage changes differ. Information about the change in storage in response to hydrologic stresses is important for managing groundwater resources in the study area. The comparison between the three methods indicates similar storage change trends are estimated and each could be used to determine relative increases or decreases in storage. Use of groundwater level changes that do not include storage changes that occur in confined or semi-confined parts of the aquifer will slightly underestimate storage changes; however, use of specific yield and groundwater level changes to estimate storage change in confined or semi-confined parts of the aquifer will overestimate storage changes. Using only changes in shallow groundwater levels would provide more accurate storage change estimates for the measured groundwater levels method. The value used for specific yield is also an important consideration when estimating storage. For the Equus Beds aquifer the reported specific yield ranges between 0.08 and 0.35 and the storage coefficient (for confined conditions) ranges between 0.0004 and 0.16. Considering the importance of the value of specific yield and storage coefficient to estimates of storage change over time, and the wide range and substantial overlap for the reported values for specific yield and storage coefficient in the study area, further information on the distribution of specific yield and storage coefficient within the Equus Beds aquifer in the study area would greatly enhance the accuracy of estimated storage changes using both simulated groundwater level, simulated groundwater budget, or measured groundwater level methods.

Kansas

Contributing recharge areas, groundwater travel time, and groundwater quality of the Missouri River alluvial aquifer near the Independence, Missouri, well field, 1997-2008

The City of Independence, Missouri, operates a well field in the Missouri River alluvial aquifer. Contributing recharge areas (CRA) were last determined for the well field in 1996. Since that time, eight supply wells have been installed in the area north of the Missouri River and well pumpage has changed for the older supply wells. The change in pumping has altered groundwater flow and substantially changed the character of the CRA and groundwater travel times to the supply wells. The U.S Geological Survey, in a cooperative study with the City of Independence, Missouri, simulated steady-state groundwater flow for 2007 well pumpage, average annual river stage, and average annual recharge. Particle-tracking analysis was used to determine the CRA for supply wells and monitoring wells, and the travel time from recharge areas to supply wells, recharge areas to monitoring wells, and monitoring wells to supply wells. The simulated CRA for the well field is elongated in the upstream direction and extends to both sides of the Missouri River. Groundwater flow paths and recharge areas estimated for monitoring wells indicate the origin of water to each monitoring well, the travel time of that water from the recharge area, the flow path from the vicinity of each monitoring well to a supply well, and the travel time from the monitoring well to the supply well. Monitoring wells 14a and 14b have the shortest groundwater travel time from their contributing recharge area of 0.30 years and monitoring well 29a has the longest maximum groundwater travel time from its contributing recharge area of 1,701 years. Monitoring well 22a has the shortest groundwater travel time of 0.5 day to supply well 44 and monitoring well 3b has the longest maximum travel time of 31.91 years to supply well 10. Water-quality samples from the Independence groundwater monitoring well network were collected from 1997 to 2008 by USGS personnel during ongoing annual sampling within the 10-year contributing recharge area (CRA) of the Independence well field. Statistical summaries and the spatial and temporal variability of water quality in the Missouri River alluvial aquifer near the Independence well field were characterized from analyses of 598 water samples. Water-quality constituent groups include dissolved oxygen and physical properties, nutrients, major ions and trace elements, wastewater indicator compounds, fuel compounds, and total benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX), alachlor, and atrazine. The Missouri Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level (SMCL) for iron was exceeded in almost all monitoring wells. The Missouri Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) for arsenic was exceeded 32 times in samples from monitoring wells. The MCL for barium was exceeded five times in samples from one monitoring well. The SMCL for manganese was exceeded 160 times in samples from all monitoring wells and the combined well-field sample. The most frequently detected wastewater indicator compounds were N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide (DEET), phenol, caffeine, and metolachlor. The most frequently detected fuel compounds were toluene and benzene. Alachlor was detected in 22 samples and atrazine was detected in 37 samples and the combined well-field sample. The MCL for atrazine was exceeded in one sample from one monitoring well. Samples from monitoring wells with median concentrations of total inorganic nitrogen larger than 1 milligram per liter (mg/L) are located near agricultural land and may indicate that agricultural land practices are the source of nitrogen to groundwater. Largest median values of specific conductance; total inorganic nitrogen; dissolved calcium, magnesium, sodium, iron, arsenic, manganese, bicarbonate, and sulfate and detections of wastewater indicator compounds generally were in water samples from monitoring wells with CRAs that intersect the south bank of the Missouri River. Zones of higher specific conductance were located just upstream from the Independence well field at south-bank outfalls from wastewater treatment plants, the Blue River, and the south bank of the Missouri River near the closed oil refinery. The long-term presence of these south-bank outfalls and the large specific conductance indicate that the surface water at the south bank of the Missouri River near the Independence well field may have consistently higher dissolved solids and nutrients that can be induced into the aquifer by pumping. Large median concentrations of sodium and chloride from samples from monitoring wells may be the result of road salt use on State Highway 291 or from Mill Creek, which drains the uplands south of the Independence well field. Large median concentrations of arsenic in samples from some monitoring well nests are most likely associated with dissolution of iron and sulfide minerals and fluctuation between oxidizing and reducing conditions. Largest median concentrations for arsenic are in the shallow depth interval where fluctuations between oxidizing and reducing conditions occur. Median concentrations of iron are large in all monitoring wells and are most likely caused by the interaction between fluctuating oxidizing and reducing conditions and siderite and ferric hydroxide. Spatial and temporal trends are not evident from the fuel compounds or total BTEX sample results. Alachlor and atrazine were detected in most monitoring wells and atrazine was detected more often than alachlor. The source of alachlor and atrazine in groundwater near the Independence well field is most likely from nearby agricultural land management practices and (or) the Missouri River. Many of the samples from monitoring wells with alachlor or atrazine detections greater than 10 percent have contributing recharge areas that intersect either agricultural land or the Missouri River bed.

Missouri

Estimated Flood-Inundation Mapping for the Upper Blue River, Indian Creek, and Dyke Branch in Kansas City, Missouri, 2006-08

In the interest of improved public safety during flooding, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Kansas City, Missouri, completed a flood-inundation study of the Blue River in Kansas City, Missouri, from the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage at Kenneth Road to 63rd Street, of Indian Creek from the Kansas-Missouri border to its mouth, and of Dyke Branch from the Kansas-Missouri border to its mouth, to determine the estimated extent of flood inundation at selected flood stages on the Blue River, Indian Creek, and Dyke Branch. The results of this study spatially interpolate information provided by U.S. Geological Survey gages, Kansas City Automated Local Evaluation in Real Time gages, and the National Weather Service flood-peak prediction service that comprise the Blue River flood-alert system and are a valuable tool for public officials and residents to minimize flood deaths and damage in Kansas City. To provide public access to the information presented in this report, a World Wide Web site (http://mo.water.usgs.gov/indep/kelly/blueriver) was created that displays the results of two-dimensional modeling between Hickman Mills Drive and 63rd Street, estimated flood-inundation maps for 13 flood stages, the latest gage heights, and National Weather Service stage forecasts for each forecast location within the study area. The results of a previous study of flood inundation on the Blue River from 63rd Street to the mouth also are available. In addition the full text of this report, all tables and maps are available for download (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2008/5068). Thirteen flood-inundation maps were produced at 2-foot intervals for water-surface elevations from 763.8 to 787.8 feet referenced to the Blue River at the 63rd Street Automated Local Evaluation in Real Time stream gage operated by the city of Kansas City, Missouri. Each map is associated with gages at Kenneth Road, Blue Ridge Boulevard, Kansas City (at Bannister Road), U.S. Highway 71, and 63rd Street on the Blue River, and at 103rd Street on Indian Creek. The National Weather Service issues peak stage forecasts for Blue Ridge Boulevard, Kansas City (at Bannister Road), U.S. Highway 71, and 63rd Street during floods. A two-dimensional depth-averaged flow model simulated flooding within a hydraulically complex, 5.6-mile study reach of the Blue River between Hickman Mills Drive and 63rd Street. Hydraulic simulation of the study reach provided information for the estimated flood-inundation maps and water-velocity magnitude and direction maps. Flood profiles of the upper Blue River between the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage at Kenneth Road and Hickman Mills Drive were developed from water-surface elevations calculated using Federal Emergency Management Agency flood-frequency discharges and 2006 stage-discharge ratings at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. Flood profiles between Hickman Mills Drive and 63rd Street were developed from two-dimensional hydraulic modeling conducted for this study. Flood profiles of Indian Creek between the Kansas-Missouri border and the mouth were developed from water-surface elevations calculated using current stage-discharge ratings at the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage at 103rd Street, and water-surface slopes derived from Federal Emergency Management Agency flood-frequency stage-discharge relations. Mapped flood water-surface elevations at the mouth of Dyke Branch were set equal to the flood water-surface elevations of Indian Creek at the Dyke Branch mouth for all Indian Creek water-surface elevations; water-surface elevation slopes were derived from Federal Emergency Management Agency flood-frequency stage-discharge relations.

Scientific Investigations Report

Estimated flood-inundation mapping for the Lower Blue River in Kansas City, Missouri, 2003-2005

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Kansas City, Missouri, began a study in 2003 of the lower Blue River in Kansas City, Missouri, from Gregory Boulevard to the mouth at the Missouri River to determine the estimated extent of flood inundation in the Blue River valley from flooding on the lower Blue River and from Missouri River backwater. Much of the lower Blue River flood plain is covered by industrial development. Rapid development in the upper end of the watershed has increased the volume of runoff, and thus the discharge of flood events for the Blue River. Modifications to the channel of the Blue River began in late 1983 in response to the need for flood control. By 2004, the channel had been widened and straightened from the mouth to immediately downstream from Blue Parkway to convey a 30-year flood. A two-dimensional depth-averaged flow model was used to simulate flooding within a 2-mile study reach of the Blue River between 63rd Street and Blue Parkway. Hydraulic simulation of the study reach provided information for the design and performance of proposed hydraulic structures and channel improvements and for the production of estimated flood-inundation maps and maps representing an areal distribution of water velocity, both magnitude and direction. Flood profiles of the Blue River were developed between Gregory Boulevard and 63rd Street from stage elevations calculated from high water marks from the flood of May 19, 2004; between 63rd Street and Blue Parkway from two-dimensional hydraulic modeling conducted for this study; and between Blue Parkway and the mouth from an existing one-dimensional hydraulic model by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Twelve inundation maps were produced at 2-foot intervals for Blue Parkway stage elevations from 750 to 772 feet. Each map is associated with National Weather Service flood-peak forecast locations at 63rd Street, Blue Parkway, Stadium Drive, U.S. Highway 40, 12th Street, and the Missouri River at the Hannibal railroad bridge in Kansas City. The National Weather Service issues peak-stage forecasts for these locations during times of flooding. Missouri River backwater inundation profiles were developed using interpolated Missouri River stage elevations at the mouth of the Blue River. Twelve backwater-inundation maps were produced at 2-foot intervals for the mouth of the Blue River from 730.9 to 752.9. To provide public access to the information presented in this report, a World Wide Web site (http://mo.water.usgs.gov/indep/kelly/blueriver/index.htm) was created that displays the results of two-dimensional modeling between 63rd Street and Blue Parkway, estimated flood-inundation maps, estimated backwater-inundation maps, and the latest gage heights and National Weather Service stage forecast for each forecast location within the study area. In addition, the full text of this report, all tables, and all plates are available for download at http://pubs.water.usgs.gov/sir2006-5089.

Missouri

Water-quality changes caused by riverbank filtration between the Missouri River and three pumping wells of the Independence, Missouri, well field 2003-05

Riverbank filtration substantially improves the source-water quality of the Independence, Missouri well field. Coliform bacteria, Cryptosporidium, Giardia, viruses and selected constituents were analyzed in water samples from the Missouri River, two vertical wells, and a collector well. Total coliform bacteria, Cryptosporidium, Giardia, and total culturable viruses were detected in the Missouri River, but were undetected in samples from wells. Using minimum reporting levels for non-detections in well samples, minimum log removals were 4.57 for total coliform bacteria, 1.67 for Cryptosporidium, 1.67 for Giardia, and 1.15 for total culturable virus. Ground-water flow rates between the Missouri River and wells were calculated from water temperature profiles and ranged between 1.2 and 6.7 feet per day. Log removals based on sample pairs separated by the traveltime between the Missouri River and wells were infinite for total coliform bacteria (minimum detection level equal to zero), between 0.8 and 3.5 for turbidity, between 1.5 and 2.1 for Giardia, and between 0.4 and 2.6 for total culturable viruses. Cryptosporidium was detected once in the Missouri River but no corresponding well samples were available. No clear relation was evident between changes in water quality in the Missouri River and in wells for almost all constituents. Results of analyses for organic wastewater compounds and the distribution of dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, and temperature in the Missouri River indicate water quality on the south side of the river was moderately influenced by the south bank inflows to the river upstream from the Independence well field.

Missouri

Simulation of ground-water flow, contributing recharge areas, and ground-water travel time in the Missouri River alluvial aquifer near Ft. Leavenworth, Kansas

The Missouri River alluvial aquifer near Ft. Leavenworth, Kansas, supplies all or part of the drinking water for Ft. Leavenworth; Leavenworth, Kansas; Weston, Missouri; and cooling water for the Kansas City Power and Light, Iatan Power Plant. Ground water at three sites within the alluvial aquifer near the Ft. Leavenworth well field is contaminated with trace metals and organic compounds and concerns have been raised about the potential contamination of drinking-water supplies. In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the U.S. Army began a study of ground-water flow in the Missouri River alluvial aquifer near Ft. Leavenworth. Hydrogeologic data from 173 locations in the study area was used to construct a ground-water flow model (MODFLOW-2000) and particle-tracking program (MODPATH) to determine the direction and travel time of ground-water flow and contributing recharge areas for water-supply well fields within the alluvial aquifer. The modeled area is 28.6 kilometers by 32.6 kilometers and contains the entire study area. The model uses a uniform grid size of 100 meters by 100 meters and contains 372,944 cells in 4 layers, 286 columns, and 326 rows. The model represents the alluvial aquifer using four layers of variable thickness with no intervening confining layers. The model was calibrated to both quasi-steady-state and transient hydraulic head data collected during the study and ground-water flow was simulated for five well-pumping/river-stage scenarios. The model accuracy was calculated using the root mean square error between actual measurements of hydraulic head and model generated hydraulic head at the end of each model run. The accepted error for the model calibrations were below the maximum measurement errors. The error for the quasi-steady-state calibration was 0.82 meter; for the transient calibration it was 0.33 meter. The shape, size, and ground-water travel time within the contributing recharge area for each well or well field is affected by changes in river stage and pumping rates and by the location of the well or well field with respect to the major rivers, alluvial valley walls, and other pumping wells. The shapes of the simulated contributing recharge areas for the well fields in the study area are elongated in the upstream direction for all well-pumping/river-stage scenarios. The capture of ground water by the pumping wells as it moved downgradient toward the Missouri River caused the long up-valley extent of the contributing recharge areas. Recharge to the Iatan and Weston well fields primarily is from precipitation and surface runoff from the surrounding uplands because the contributing recharge area does not intersect the Missouri River for any well-pumping/river-stage scenarios. Recharge to the Leavenworth and Ft. Leavenworth well fields is from precipitation, surface runoff from the surrounding uplands, and the Missouri River because the contributing recharge area intersects these boundaries for all well-pumping/river-stage scenarios. Particle tracking analysis indicated ground water from the three contaminated sites was captured by the Ft. Leavenworth well field for all well-pumping/river-stage scenarios. Ground-water travel times to the Ft. Leavenworth well field for average well-pumping/river-stage scenario ranged from about 33 years for the closest contamination site to about 71 years for the farthest contamination site. Ground-water flow was induced below the Missouri River by the Ft. Leavenworth and Leavenworth well fields for all well-pumping/river-stage scenarios.

Scientific Investigations Report

Ecological dynamics of wetlands at Lisbon Bottom, Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge, Missouri

The study documented the interaction between hydrology and the biological dynamics within a single spring season at Lisbon Bottom in 1999. The study goal was to provide information necessary for resource managers to develop management strategies for this and other units of the Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge. Researchers studied the hydrology, limnology, and biological dynamics of zooplankton, macroinvertebrates, fish and waterbird communities. Lisbon Bottom is one of several parcels of 1993 flood-damaged land that was purchased from willing sellers by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service as part of the Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge. Lisbon Bottom is a loop bend in the river near Glasgow in Howard County, Missouri between approximately river mile (RM) 213 to RM 219. Flooding at Lisbon in 1993 and 1995 breeched local levees and created a diverse wetland complex.

Missouri

Ground-water monitoring plan, water quality, and variability of agricultural chemicals in the Missouri River alluvial aquifer near the City of Independence, Missouri, well field, 1998-2000

A detailed ground-water sampling plan was developed and executed for 64 monitoring wells in the city of Independence well field to characterize ground-water quality in the 10-year zone of contribution. Samples were collected from monitoring wells, combined Independence well field pumpage, and the Missouri River at St. Joseph, Missouri, from 1998 through 2000. In 328 ground-water samples from the 64 monitoring wells and combined well field pumpage samples, specific conductance values ranged from 511 to 1,690 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius, pH values ranged from 6.4 to 7.7, water temperature ranged from 11.3 to 23.6 degrees Celsius, and dissolved oxygen concentrations ranged from 0 to 3.3 milligrams per liter. In 12 samples from the combined well field pumpage samples, specific conductance values ranged from 558 to 856 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius, pH values ranged from 6.9 to 7.7, water temperature ranged from 5.8 to 22.9 degrees Celsius, and dissolved oxygen concentrations ranged from 0 to 2.4 milligrams per liter. In 45 Missouri River samples, specific conductance values ranged from 531 to 830 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius, pH ranged from 7.2 to 8.7, water temperature ranged from 0 to 30 degrees Celsius, and dissolved oxygen concentrations ranged from 5.0 to 17.6 milligrams per liter. The secondary maximum contaminant level for sulfate in drinking water was exceeded once in samples from two monitoring wells, the maximum contaminant level (MCL) for antimony was exceeded once in a sample from one monitoring well, and the MCL for barium was exceeded once in a sample from one monitoring well. The MCL for iron was exceeded in samples from all monitoring wells except two. The MCL for manganese was exceeded in all samples from monitoring wells and combined well field pumpage. Enzyme linked immunoassay methods indicate total benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, and xylene (BTEX) was detected in samples from five wells. The highest total BTEX concentration was less than the MCL of toluene, ethyl benzene, or xylene but greater than the MCL for benzene. Total BTEX was not detected in samples from any well more than once. Atrazine was detected in samples from nine wells, and exceeded the MCL once in a sample from one well. Alachlor was detected in samples from 22 wells but the MCL was never exceeded in any sample. Samples from five wells analyzed for a large number of organic compounds indicate concentrations of volatile organic compounds did not exceed the MCL for drinking water. No semi-volatile organic compounds were detected; dieldrin was detected in one well sample, and no other pesticides, herbicides, polychlorinated biphenyls, or polychlorinated napthalenes were detected. Dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, dissolved orthophosphorus, alachlor, and atrazine analyses were used to determine the spatial and temporal variability of agricultural chemicals in ground water. Detection frequencies for dissolved ammonia increased with well depth, decreased with depth for dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, and remained relatively constant with depth for dissolved orthophosphorus. Maximum concentrations of dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, and dissolved orthophosphorus were largest in the shallowest wells and decreased with depth, which may indicate the land surface as the source. However, median concentrations increased with depth for dissolved ammonia, were less than the detection limit for dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, and decreased with depth for dissolved orthophosphorus. This pattern does not indicate a well-defined single source for these constituents. Dissolved orthophosphorus median concentrations were similar, but decreased slightly with depth, and may indicate the land surface as the source. Seasonal variability of dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, and dissolved orthophosphorus concentrations is not well-defined for samples grouped by month. Individual sample results from the Missouri River and the combined Independence well field pumpage show a seasonal trend that may indicate the effect of induced recharge from the Missouri River on the well field. Individual results and samples from seven wells indicate relatively constant dissolved ammonia concentrations, low dissolved nitrite plus nitrate concentrations in all but one well, and a more well-defined seasonal variation of dissolved orthophosphorus than either dissolved ammonia or dissolved nitrite plus nitrate. Larger detection frequencies in the shallow depth intervals and the large maximum concentrations of alachlor and atrazine in the shallower wells indicate that the source of these chemicals to shallow ground water most likely is the land surface rather than induced river recharge. Seasonal variability of alachlor is not well-defined from samples grouped by month. Individual results from the combined Independence well field pumpage and samples from seven wells indicate variation in both alachlor and atrazine with time, but the degree and timing of the variation is not consistent. This inconsistency most likely is caused by varying rates of transport from the land surface to wells, different rates of degradation of both alachlor and atrazine in soil and ground water, the timing and area of application, and multiple source areas in and around the Independence well field. Alachlor and atrazine concentrations in the Missouri River at Hermann, Missouri, increased in spring, greater concentrations continued until late summer or early fall, and lower concentrations occurred in late fall and winter. Alachlor and atrazine concentrations most likely followed a similar trend in the Missouri River near the Independence well field. The lack of a seasonal trend similar to that of the Missouri River in the combined Independence well field pumpage and the monitoring wells may indicate that the source of alachlor and atrazine to ground water is the land surface rather than the Missouri River.

Missouri

Effects of alternative Missouri River management plans on ground-water levels in the lower Missouri River flood plain

In 1998, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) proposed eight Alternative River Management Plans (ARMPs) for managing reservoir levels and water-release rates for the Missouri River. The plans include the Current Water Control Plan (CWCP), Conservation 18, 31, and 44 (C18, C31, and C44) that provide different levels of water conservation in the reservoirs during droughts, Fish and Wildlife 10, 15, and 20 (FW10, FW15, and FW20) that vary water-release rates to provide additional fish and wildlife benefits, and Mississippi River 66 (M66) that maintains a 66,000 cubic feet per second discharge at St. Louis to provide navigation support for the Mississippi River. Releases from Gavin?s Point Dam affect both the lower 1,305 kilometers of the Missouri River and ground-water levels in the lower Missouri River flood plain. Changes in the magnitude and timing of ground-water-level fluctuations in response to changes in river management could impact agriculture, urban development, and wetland hydrology along the lower Missouri River flood plain. This study compared simulated ground-water altitude and depth to ground water for the CWCP in the Missouri River alluvial aquifer near the Kansas City area between 1970 and 1980 with each ARMP, determined the average change in simulated ground-water level for selected river-stage flood pulses at selected distances from the river, and compared simulated flood pulse, ground-water responses with actual flood pulse, and ground-water responses measured in wells located at three sites along the lower Missouri River flood plain.For the model area, the percent total shallow ground-water area (depth to ground water less than 0.3048 meter) is similar for each ARMP because of overall similarities in river flow between ARMPs. The percent total shallow ground-water area for C18 is the most similar to CWCP followed by C31, M66, C44, FW10, FW15, and FW20. ARMPs C18, C31, C44, and M66 do not cause large changes in the percent shallow ground-water area when compared to CWCP. FW10 and FW15 each cause a spring increase and a summer decrease in the shallow ground-water area. FW20 has a larger spring increase in the shallow ground-water area, but the largest decrease is delayed into November. Analysis of daily changes between the ARMPs indicate large differences can exist in both duration and extent of shallow ground-water areas.A series of 12 flood pulses of 0.5-, 1-, and 3-meters in magnitude and 1-, 8-, 32-, and 128-days in duration were simulated using the ground-water flow model. A ground-water response factor (GWRF, defined as the change in ground-water level at a known distance from the river, at a specified time after the beginning of a flood pulse divided by the magnitude of the flood pulse) was determined daily for selected distances from the river. The GWRF multiplied by the magnitude of the flood pulse can be used to estimate the change in ground-water level at a known time after the beginning of a flood pulse for a known distance from the river. Flood-pulse simulation results indicate the relatively small impact on ground-water levels of small river-stage fluctuations of short duration as might occur daily or weekly. The larger impact on ground-water levels from larger river-stage increases of longer duration indicate the importance of river management flow releases, seasonal changes in river flow, and the effects of continuous high-river stage for long periods on ground-water levels of the lower Missouri River flood plain.A comparison of model results to well hydrographs from three areas along the lower Missouri River flood plain was used to determine how closely the simulated GWRFs matched the measured GWRFs for similar flood pulses and the transferability of GWRFs to other parts of the lower Missouri River flood plain. The comparison between the measured and simulated ground-water responses indicate that the simulated ground-water responses can provide a reasonable estimate of the ground-water resp

Water-Resources Investigations Report