Geology topics

Brian F. Atwater

Publications and source records attributed to Brian F. Atwater.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Dating a medieval tsunami with uranium-series techniques on Caribbean corals

Uranium-series dates from coral boulders constrain the timing of a medieval tsunami from the Puerto Rico Trench. Previously reported evidence for this tsunami includes hundreds of coral boulders that came to rest hundreds of meters inland on Anegada, British Virgin Islands. New U-series dates on these coral boulders provide limiting dates for the tsunami. The narrowest limits were by dating interior bands of a coral that retains the hemispherical form of a living coral colony, and which include adjustments for the number of annual density band couplets between the dated samples and the boulder exteriors. By those limits, the tsunami dates between 1381 and 1391 CE, and likely occurred during summer or fall. The tsunami is important as the only reported sign that the eastern Puerto Rico Trench has produced a great earthquake. The dating may aid in defining the earthquake source and in communicating tsunami hazards.

British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico↗

USGS2024

Modeled flooding by tsunamis and a storm versus observed extent of coral erratics on Anegada, British Virgin Islands— Further evidence for a great Caribbean earthquake six centuries ago

Models of near-field tsunamis and an extreme hurricane provide further evidence for a great precolonial earthquake along the Puerto Rico Trench. The models are benchmarked to brain-coral boulders and cobbles on Anegada, 125 km south of the trench. The models are screened by their success in flooding the mapped sites of these erratics, which were emplaced some six centuries ago. Among 25 tsunami scenarios, 19 have megathrust sources and the rest posit normal faulting on the outer rise. The modeled storm, the most extreme of 15 hurricanes of category 5, produces tsunami-like bores from surf beat. In the tsunami scenarios, simulated flow depth is 1 m or more at all the clast sites, and 2 m or more at nearly all, given either a megathrust rupture 255 km long with 7.5 m of dip slip and M8.45, or an outer-rise rupture 130 km long with 11.4 m of dip slip and M8.17. By contrast, many coral clasts lie beyond the reach of simulated flooding from the extreme hurricane. The tsunami screening may underestimate earthquake size by neglecting trees and shrubs that likely impeded both the simulated flows and the observed clasts; and it may overestimate earthquake size by leaving coastal sand barriers intact. The screening results broadly agree with those from previously published tsunami simulations. In either successful scenario, the average recurrence interval spans thousands of years, and flooding on the nearest Caribbean shores begins within a half-hour.

Anegada↗

USGS2024

Earthquake effects surveyed during the nineteenth century as ecological features of Chinookan tidelands

Lasting effects of a Cascadia earthquake in 1700 were documented during surveys of Chinookan tidelands near the mouth of the Columbia River between 1805 and 1868. The effects resemble estuarine consequences, near Anchorage, of the 1964 Alaska earthquake: fatal drowning of subsided meadows and forests by post-earthquake tides, rebirth of marshes and forests through post-earthquake sedimentation, and uplift. Chinookan remains of killed forests were recorded by James Graham Cooper, John J. Lowell, and Cleveland Rockwell. Cooper, attached to a railroad survey and the Smithsonian Institution, wrote of redcedar stumps and trunks standing dead in tidal marshes of Shoalwater (now Willapa) Bay. Two such snags served as bearing trees for Lowell as he platted a Shoalwater Bay township under contract with the General Land Office. Rockwell, of the US Coast Survey, flecked landward edges of tidal flats west of Astoria with symbols that evoke remains of a bygone spruce forest. The Lewis and Clark Expedition, while in that area in 1805–1806, mapped and puzzled over tideland vegetation that post-1700 succession helps explain.

Alaska, British Columbia, California, Oregon, Wash↗

USGS2021

Upper Grand Coulee: New views of a channeled scabland megafloods enigma

New findings about old puzzles occasion rethinking of the Grand Coulee, greatest of the scabland channels. Those puzzles begin with antecedents of current upper Grand Coulee. By a recent interpretation, the upper coulee exploited the former high-level valley of a preflood trunk stream that had drained to the southwest beside and across Coulee anticline or monocline. In any case, a constriction and sharp bend in nearby Columbia valley steered Missoula floods this direction. Completion of upper Grand Coulee by megaflood erosion captured flood drainage that would otherwise have continued to enlarge Moses Coulee. Upstream in the Sanpoil valley, deposits and shorelines of last-glacial Lake Columbia varied with the lake’s Grand Coulee outlet while also recording scores of Missoula floods. The Sanpoil evidence implies that upper Grand Coulee had approached its present intake depth early the last glaciation at latest, or more simply during a prior glaciation. An upper part of the Sanpoil section provides varve counts between the last tens of Missoula floods in a stratigraphic sequence that may now be linked to flood rhythmites of southern Washington by a set-S tephra from Mount St. Helens. On the floor of upper Grand Coulee itself, recently found striated rock and lodgement till confirm the long-held view, which Bretz and Flint had shared, that cutting of upper Grand Coulee preceded its last-glacial occupation by the Okanogan ice lobe. A dozen or more late Missoula floods registered as sand and silt in the lee of Steamboat Rock. Some of this field evidence about upper Grand Coulee may conflict with results of recent two-dimensional simulations for a maximum Lake Missoula. In these simulations only a barrier high above the present coulee intake enables floods to approach high-water marks near Wenatchee that predate stable blockage of Columbia valley by the Okanogan lobe. Above the walls of upper Grand Coulee, scabland limits provide high-water targets for two-dimensional simulations of watery floods. The recent models sharpen focus on water sources, prior coulee incision, and coulee’s occupation by the Okanogan ice lobe. Field reappraisal continues downstream from Grand Coulee on Ephrata fan. There, some of the floods exiting lower Grand Coulee had bulked up with fine sediment from glacial Lake Columbia, upper coulee till, and a lower coulee lake that the fan itself impounded. Floods thus of debris-flow consistency carried outsize boulders previously thought transported by watery floods. Below Ephrata fan, a backflooded reach of Columbia valley received Grand Coulee outflow of small, late Missoula floods. These late floods can—by varve counts in post-S-ash deposits of Sanpoil valley—be clocked now as a decade or less apart. Still farther downstream, Columbia River gorge choked the largest Missoula floods, passing peak discharge only one-third to one-half that released by the breached Lake Missoula ice dam.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2021

Karachi effects of the Makran earthquake and tsunami of November 1945: Mercury spilled, tide gauge impaired, seawalls overrun, boats displaced, mosque flooded

An earthquake and tsunamiI on November 28, 1945, sourced near the Makran coast of the Arabian Sea, disturbed port facilities and fishing villages to the east at Karachi Harbour. Seismic waves, some 300 kilometers from their Makran source, spilled mercury high in a lighthouse at Manora. One liter of the heavy, toxic liquid escaped from an annular trough in which one of the world’s heaviest assemblies of concentric glass prisms usually floated and revolved. Ensuing tsunami waves registered incompletely at a tide gauge, also at Manora. Prior blockage of a stilling well may have held down the recorded level of the first few waves. The highest wave went ungauged by breaking a mechanical connection between water levels and a graphing pencil. That highest wave overtopped seawalls of Keamari (Kiamari), according to newspaper accounts. The overflow reportedly flooded oil facilities, damaged 120 meters of Keamari Groyne, and destroyed a beacon on the groyne. By one account water apparently flowed from east to west in the bight south of Keamari. Interviews seven decades later elicited memories of displaced boats. In Karachi, a scion of a shipping family recalled observing, a few days after the tsunami, a pair of military landing craft atop Keamari wharves beside which the craft had been berthed, he said, as ferries serving schools of the Royal Indian Navy. In Gujarat, a former sailor and port official told of feeling the tsunami suddenly lift an ocean-going dhow that had been grounded for hull cleaning near Baba Island. Others interviewed testified to flooding in fishing villages on Baba and Bhit islands. Three independent accounts told of water entering a Bhit Island mosque. Likely water levels at the overrun seawalls, stranded landing craft, and flooded mosque all exceed the maximum wave height gauged at Manora. A tsunami like the one in 1945 would today encounter more people and developed property in Karachi’s port areas. The population of port villages has increased tenfold or more, as has the tonnage of imports and exports.

Karachi↗

USGS2018

Karachi tides during the 1945 Makran tsunami

This paper extends and detides a Karachi tide-gauge record as an observational basis for assessing Indian Ocean tsunami risk. The extended marigram encompasses the time of the great 1945 Makran earthquake of early November 28, local time, and of the ensuing tsunami, which continued into November 29. The marigram was published previously as a 9-h excerpt that begins 1 h after the earthquake. The full marigram presented here covers most of 17 days from November 15 to December 1. Gaps include a tsunami-induced outage that may help explain why the highest water level gauged is 1 m below the maximum water level reported nearby. The detiding method computes a reference tidal curve that disregards all observations from November 28 and 29. For those 2 days, the reference tide is guided by Admiralty tide tables and, secondarily, by high waters and low waters gauged before and after. As in previous estimates, the detided tsunami crests about 0.5 m above ambient tide, but now with the possibility that the gauge failed to record a higher wave. Anomalies described for the first time include an early one that likely resulted from a recognized problem with the Karachi tide station, but which might instead represent an earthquake precursor.

Karachi↗

USGS2018

A digital elevation model for simulating the 1945 Makran tsunami in Karachi Harbour

The digital elevation model documented here provides a tool for calibrating tsunami models to effects of the 1945 Makran tsunami that were observed in Karachi Harbour. The DEM bathymetry is derived from soundings made mainly during the first 8 years post-tsunami. While deficient in its portrayal of interior tidelands and upland topography, the DEM accurately represents the setting of a tide gauge that recorded the 1945 tsunami.

Karachi Harbour↗

USGS2017

Geologic evidence for catastrophic marine inundation in 1200–1480 C.E. near the Puerto Rico Trench at Anegada, British Virgin Islands

Extraordinary marine inundation scattered clasts southward on the island of Anegada, 120 km south of the Puerto Rico Trench, sometime between 1200 and 1480 calibrated years (cal yr) CE. Many of these clasts were likely derived from a fringing reef and from the sandy flat that separates the reef from the island’s north shore. The scattered clasts include no fewer than 200 coral boulders, mapped herein for the first time and mainly found hundreds of meters inland. Many of these are complete colonies of the brain coral Diploria strigosa . Other coral species represented include Orbicella (formerly Montastraea ) annularis , Porites astreoides , and Acropora palmata . Associated bioclastic carbonate sand locally contains articulated cobble-size valves of the lucine Codakia orbicularis and entire conch shells of Strombus gigas , mollusks that still inhabit the sandy shallows between the island’s north shore and a fringing reef beyond. Imbricated limestone slabs are clustered near some of the coral boulders. In addition, fields of scattered limestone boulders and cobbles near sea level extend mainly southward from limestone sources as much as 1 km inland. Radiocarbon ages have been obtained from 27 coral clasts, 8 lucine valves, and 3 conch shells. All these additional ages predate 1500 cal yr CE, all but 2 are in the range 1000–1500 cal yr CE, and 16 of 22 brain coral ages cluster in the range 1200–1480 cal yr CE. The event marked by these coral and mollusk clasts likely occurred in the last centuries before Columbus (before 1492 CE). The pre-Columbian deposits surpass Anegada’s previously reported evidence for extreme waves in post-Columbian time. The coarsest of the modern storm deposits consist of coral rubble that lines the north shore and sandy fans on the south shore; neither of these storm deposits extends more than 50 m inland. More extensive overwash, perhaps by the 1755 Lisbon tsunami, is marked primarily by a sheet of sand and shells found mainly below sea level beneath the floors of modern salt ponds. This sheet extends more than 1 km southward from the north shore and dates to the interval 1650–1800 cal yr CE. Unlike the pre-Columbian deposits, it lacks coarse clasts from the reef or reef flat; its shell assemblage is instead dominated by cerithid gastropods that were merely stirred up from a marine pond in the island’s interior. In their inland extent and clustered pre-Columbian ages, the coral clasts and associated deposits suggest extreme waves unrivaled in recent millennia at Anegada. Bioclastic sand coats limestone 4 m above sea level in areas 0.7 and 1.3 km from the north shore. A coral boulder of nearly 1 m 3 is 3 km from the north shore by way of an unvegetated path near sea level. As currently understood, the extreme flooding evidenced by these and other clasts represents either an extraordinary storm or a tsunami of nearby origin. The storm would need to have produced tsunami-like bores similar to those of 2013 Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines. Normal faults and a thrust fault provide nearby tsunami sources along the eastern Puerto Rico Trench.

Geosphere↗

USGS2015

Earthquake forewarning in the Cascadia region

This report, prepared for the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC), is intended as a step toward improving communications about earthquake hazards between information providers and users who coordinate emergency-response activities in the Cascadia region of the Pacific Northwest. NEPEC charged a subcommittee of scientists with writing this report about forewarnings of increased probabilities of a damaging earthquake. We begin by clarifying some terminology; a “prediction” refers to a deterministic statement that a particular future earthquake will or will not occur. In contrast to the 0- or 100-percent likelihood of a deterministic prediction, a “forecast” describes the probability of an earthquake occurring, which may range from >0 to <100 percent. When the time window is short (days to months) and the forecast is formulated for operational utility, this term may be “operational earthquake forecasting.” The subcommittee considered short-term forecasts only, herein referred to as “forewarnings,” but not their formulation into messages or their applications, which will be addressed by NEPEC in subsequent activities. The subcommittee considered “direct” and “indirect” forewarnings. Direct forewarnings originate with observed changes in geologic processes or conditions, which may include Increased rates of M >4 earthquakes on the plate interface north of the Mendocino region Changes in shallow seismicity patterns Increased rates of moderate earthquakes within the subducting plate Changes in the pattern of slow slip on the plate interface and other major faults Indirect forewarnings are based largely on model predictions of increased earthquake-occurrence probabilities. In this context, “models” refers to simulations of the processes believed to affect earthquake occurrence, as implemented in computer software, laboratory experiments, or some analog natural system. These indirect forewarnings likely will be more uncertain and difficult to interpret than direct forewarnings. This report also highlights the challenges of assessing the significance of forewarnings, which mostly will be extraordinary events with little or no historical precedent in the Cascadia region.

Cascadia region↗

USGS2015

Chance findings about early holocene tidal marshes of Grays Harbor, Washington, in relation to rapidly rising seas and great subduction earthquakes

Tidal marshes commonly build upward apace with gradual rise in the level of the sea. It is expected, however, that few tidal marshes will keep up with accelerated sea-level rise later in this century. Tidal marshes have been drowned, moreover, after subsiding during earthquakes. This report tells of ancient marshes that endured rapid sea-level rise in a region that subsides during earthquakes. The soils of these marshes were unexpectedly encountered in borings for a public-works project at Grays Harbor, Washington. The borings were logged quickly and only a few of the core sections were conserved. The limited findings pose puzzles about how the ancient marshes endured and what their history implies for earthquake hazards. The borings establish that tidal marshes persisted during the early Holocene at Grays Harbor, an estuary along the Cascadia Subduction Zone of western North America. The persistent marshes are recorded by a unit of peaty mud up to 10 m thick and as much as 40 m below present sea level in the drowned valley of the Chehalis River. The unit was encountered in two areas 4 km apart that were tidal flats in the 19th century. The marshes originated less than 10,000 years ago and endured through most or all of an estimated 500–1,500 years. The borings further show that these persistent marshes eventually yielded to tidal flats, tidal channels, or both. The change is marked by sand and mud that overlie the peaty mud at a typically sharp contact. The marshes were drowned about 8,600–8,400 years ago if the sand and mud buried them promptly, or later if the sand and mud filled channels that migrated across the peaty mud. In one of the studied areas, tidal marshes became re-established locally in the early Holocene and widely in the middle Holocene, and deposits of middle Holocene marshes were overrun as recently as 1,000 years ago by a gravelly tidal channel. In the other area, tidal-flat and probably subtidal deposits make up all of the middle and late Holocene section below artificial fill; if marshes became re-established in this area after about 8,600–8,400 years ago, their deposits have been lost to erosion. The puzzles posed by these findings include: (1) How did the marshes manage to endure centuries of relative sea-level rise that likely approached 1 cm/yr on average? (2) Did the marshes also endure subsidence that accompanied great thrust earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone? (3) Was their eventual drowning triggered by a Cascadia earthquake of unusually large size, or can the drowning be explained by sea-level rise that included a jump from drainage of glacial Lake Agassiz?

Washington↗

USGS2015

A tribute to George Plafker

In a long and distinguished career, George Plafker made fundamental advances in understanding of megathrust tectonics, tsunami generation, paleoseismology, crustal neotectonics, an d Alaskan geology, chiefly by means of geological field observations. George discovered that giant earthquakes result from tens of meters of seismic slip on subduction megathrusts, and he did this before the theory of plate tectonics h ad become a paradigm. The discovery was founded on George's comprehensive mapping of land-level changes in the aftermath of the 1964 earthquake in Alaska, and on his follow-up mapping, in 1968, in the region of the 1960 earthquakes in Chile. The mapping showed paired, parallel belts of coseismic uplift largely offshore and coseismic subsidence mo stly onshore – a pattern now familiar as the initial condition assumed in simulations of subduction-zone tsu namis. George recognized, moreover, that splay faulting can play a major role in tsunami generation, and he also distinguished carefully between tectonic and landslide sources for the multiple tsunamis that accounted for nearly all the fatalities associated with the 1964 Alaska earthquake. George's classic monographs on the 1964 earthquake include findings on subduction-zone paleoseismology that he soon extended to include stratigraphic evidence for cyclic vertical deformation at the Copper River Delta, as well as recurrent uplift evidenced by flights of marine terraces at Middleton Island. As a geologist of earthquakes, George also clarified the tectonics and hazards of crustal faulting in Alaska, California, and other areas worldwide. All the while, George was mapping bedrock geol ogy in Alaska, where he contributed importantly to today's understanding of how terranes were accreted and modified. Especially important was his documentation of the origin, movement, subduction, and collision of the Yakutat terrane in southern Alaska.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2014

Elders recall an earlier tsunami on Indian Ocean shores

Ten years on, the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 still looms large in efforts to reduce coastal risk. The disaster has spurred worldwide advances in tsunami detection and warning, tsunami-risk assessment, and tsunami awareness [Satake, 2014]. Nearly a lifetime has passed since the northwestern Indian Ocean last produced a devastating tsunami. Documentation of this tsunami, in November 1945, was hindered by international instability in the wake of the Second World War and, in British India, by the approach of independence and partition. The parent earthquake, of magnitude 8.1, was widely recorded, and the tsunami registered on tide gauges, but intelligence reports and newspaper articles say little about inundation limits while permitting a broad range of catalogued death tolls. What has been established about the 1945 tsunami falls short of what's needed today for ground-truthing inundation models, estimating risk to enlarged populations, and anchoring awareness campaigns in local facts. Recent efforts to reduce coastal risk around the Arabian Sea include a project in which eyewitnesses to the 1945 tsunami were found and interviewed (Fig. 1), and related archives were gathered. Results are being made available through UNESCO's Indian Ocean Tsunami Information Center in hopes of increasing scientific understanding and public awareness of the region's tsunami hazards.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News↗

USGS2014

Effects of 2010 Hurricane Earl amidst geologic evidence for greater overwash at Anegada, British Virgin Islands

A post-hurricane survey of a Caribbean island affords comparisons with geologic evidence for greater overwash at the same place. This comparison, though of limited application to other places, helps calibrate coastal geology for assessment of earthquake and tsunami potential along the Antilles Subduction Zone. The surveyed island, Anegada, is 120 km south of the Puerto Rico Trench and is near the paths of hurricanes Donna (1960) and Earl (2010), which were at or near category 4 when at closest approach. The survey focused on Earl's geologic effects, related them to the surge from Hurricane Donna, and compared them further with erosional and depositional signs of southward overwash from the Atlantic Ocean that dates to 1200–1450 AD and to 1650–1800 AD. The main finding is that the geologic effects of these earlier events dwarf those of the recent hurricanes. Hurricane Earl's geologic effects at Anegada, observed mainly in 2011, were limited to wrack deposition along many of the island's shores and salt ponds, accretion of small washover (spillover) fans on the south shore, and the suspension and deposition of microbial material from interior salt ponds. Earl's most widespread deposit at Anegada, the microbial detritus, was abundantly juxtaposed with evidence for catastrophic overwash in prior centuries. The microbial detritus formed an extensive coating up to 2 cm thick that extended into breaches in beach-ridge plains of the island's north shore, onto playas that are underlain by a sand-and-shell sheet that extends as much as 1.5 km southward from the north shore, and among southward-strewn limestone boulders pendant to outcrops as much as 1 km inland. Earl's spillover fans also contrast with a sand-and-shell sheet, which was dated previously to 1650–1800, by being limited to the island's south shore and by extending inland a few tens of meters at most. These findings complement those reported in this issue by Michaela Spiske and Robert Halley (Spiske and Halley, 2014), who studied a coral-rubble ridge that lines part of Anegada's north shore. Spiske and Halley attribute the ridge to storms that were larger than Earl. But they contrast the ridge with coral boulders that were scattered hundreds of meters inland by overwash in 1200–1450.

Anegada↗

USGS2014

Rethinking turbidite paleoseismology along the Cascadia subduction zone

A stratigraphic synthesis of dozens of deep-sea cores, most of them overlooked in recent decades, provides new insights into deep-sea turbidites as guides to earthquake and tsunami hazards along the Cascadia subduction zone, which extends 1100 km along the Pacific coast of North America. The synthesis shows greater variability in Holocene stratigraphy and facies off the Washington coast than was recognized a quarter century ago in a confluence test for seismic triggering of sediment gravity flows. That test compared counts of Holocene turbidites upstream and downstream of a deep-sea channel junction. Similarity in the turbidite counts among seven core sites provided evidence that turbidity currents from different submarine canyons usually reached the junction around the same time, as expected of widespread seismic triggering. The fuller synthesis, however, shows distinct differences between tributaries, and these differences suggest sediment routing for which the confluence test was not designed. The synthesis also bears on recent estimates of Cascadia earthquake magnitudes and recurrence intervals. The magnitude estimates hinge on stratigraphic correlations that discount variability in turbidite facies. The recurrence estimates require turbidites to represent megathrust earthquakes more dependably than they do along a flow path where turbidite frequency appears limited less by seismic shaking than by sediment supply. These concerns underscore the complexity of extracting earthquake history from deep-sea turbidites at Cascadia.

Cascadia subduction zone↗

USGS2014

Assessing inundation hazards to nuclear powerplant sites using geologically extended histories of riverine floods, tsunamis, and storm surges

Most nuclear powerplants in the United States are near rivers, large lakes, or oceans. As evident from the Fukushima Daiichi, Japan, disaster of 2011, these water bodies pose inundation threats. Geologic records can extend knowledge of rare hazards from flooding, storm surges, and tsunamis. This knowledge can aid in assessing the safety of critical structures such as dams and energy plants, for which even remotely possible hazards are pertinent. Quantitative analysis of inundation from geologic records perhaps is most developed for and applied to riverine flood hazards, but because of recent natural disasters, geologic investigations also are now used widely for understanding tsunami hazards and coastal storm surges. Layered sedimentary deposits commonly give the most complete geologic record of large floods, storm surges, and tsunamis. Sedimentary layers may be preserved for hundreds or thousands of years in suitable depositional environments, thereby providing an archive of rare, high-magnitude events. All inundation hazards discussed in this report—riverine floods, tsunamis, and storm surges—have had long records extracted from sedimentary sequences, many specifically for hazard assessment. Geologic records commonly are imprecise, so most hazard assessments benefit from evaluation of many sites and rigorous uncertainty assessment. Despite uncertainties, geologic records commonly can improve knowledge of the types and magnitudes of hazards threatening specific sites or regions. New statistical tools and approaches can efficiently incorporate geologic information into frequency assessments. These tools are most developed for riverine flood hazards, but are to some degree transferable to other episodic natural phenomena such as tsunamis and storm surges. Even with these efficient statistical approaches for examining geologic records, systematic landscape changes may reduce the applicability of retrospective assessments. These non-stationarity issues (such as climate change, sea‑level rise, land-use, dams and flow regulation) may all affect the validity of using past experience—no matter how complete the record—to assess future likelihoods. These issues require site-specific consideration for nearly all hazard assessments drawn from geologic evidence. A screening of the 104 nuclear powerplants in the United States licensed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (at 64 sites) indicates several sites for which paleoflood studies likely would provide additional flood-frequency information. Two sites—Duane Arnold, Iowa, on the Cedar River; and David-Besse, Ohio, on the Toussaint River—have geologic conditions suitable for creating and preserving stratigraphic records of flooding and few upstream dams that may complicate flood-frequency analysis. One site—Crystal River, Florida1, on the Withlacoochee River and only 4 kilometers from the coast—has high potential as a candidate for assessing riverine and marine inundation hazards. Several sites on the Mississippi River have high geologic potential, but upstream dams almost certainly now regulate peak flows. Nevertheless, studies on the Mississippi River to evaluate long-term flood frequency may provide results applicable to a wide spectrum of regional hazard issues. Several sites in the southeastern United States have high geologic potential, and studies at these sites also may be helpful in evaluating hazards from outburst floods from landslide dams (river blockages formed by mass movements), which may be a regional hazard. For all these sites, closer investigation and field reconnaissance would be needed to confirm suitable deposits and settings for a complete paleoflood analysis. Similar screenings may help identify high-potential sites for geologic investigations of tsunami and storm-surge hazards.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2013

The 1960 tsunami on beach-ridge plains near Maullín, Chile: Landward descent, renewed breaches, aggraded fans, multiple predecessors

The Chilean tsunami of 22 May 1960 reamed out a breach and built up a fan as it flowed across a sparsely inhabited beach-ridge plain near Maullín, midway along the length of the tsunami source. Eyewitnesses to the flooding, interviewed mainly in 1988 and 1989, identified levels that the tsunami had reached on high ground, trees, and build- ings. The maximum levels fell, from about 10 m to 2 m, between the mouth of the tidal Río Maullín and an inundation limit nearly 5 km inland across the plain. Along this profile at Caulle, where the maximum flow depth was a few meters deep, airphotos taken in 1961 show breaches across a road on a sandy beach ridge. Inland from one of these breaches is a fan with branched distributaries. Today its breach holds a pond that has been changing into a marsh. The 1960 fan deposits, as much as 60 cm thick, are traceable inland for 120 m from the breach. They rest on a pasture soil above two additional sand bodies, each atop its own buried soil. The earlier of the pre-1960 sand bodies probably dates to AD 1270-1400, in which case its age is not statistically different from that of a sand sheet previously dated elsewhere near Maullín. The breach likely originated then and has been freshened twice. Evidence that the breach was freshened in 1960 includes a near-basal interval of cobble-size clasts of sediment and soil, most of them probably derived from the organic fill of pre-1960 breach. The cobbly interval is overlain by sand with ripple-drift laminae that record landward flow. The fan of another breach near Maullín, at Chanhué, also provides stratigraphic evidence for recurrent tsunamis, though not necessarily for the repeated use of the breach. These findings were anticipated a half century ago by descrip- tion of paired breaches and fans that the 1960 Chilean tsunami produced in Japan. Breaches and their fans may provide lasting evidence for tsunami inundation of beach-ridge plains. The breaches might be detectable by remote sensing, and the thickness of the fan deposits might help them outlast an ordinary tsunami sand sheet. Keywords: Tsunami, Erosion, Deposition, Hazard, Chile.

Llanquihue↗

USGS2012

Deep-Sea Turbidites as Guides to Holocene Earthquake History at the Cascadia Subduction Zone—Alternative Views for a Seismic-Hazard Workshop

This report reviews the geological basis for some recent estimates of earthquake hazards in the Cascadia region between southern British Columbia and northern California. The largest earthquakes to which the region is prone are in the range of magnitude 8-9. The source of these great earthquakes is the fault down which the oceanic Juan de Fuca Plate is being subducted or thrust beneath the North American Plate. Geologic evidence for their occurrence includes sedimentary deposits that have been observed in cores from deep-sea channels and fans. Earthquakes can initiate subaqueous slumps or slides that generate turbidity currents and which produce the sedimentary deposits known as turbidites. The hazard estimates reviewed in this report are derived mainly from deep-sea turbidites that have been interpreted as proxy records of great Cascadia earthquakes. The estimates were first published in 2008. Most of the evidence for them is contained in a monograph now in press. We have reviewed a small part of this evidence, chiefly from Cascadia Channel and its tributaries, all of which head offshore the Pacific coast of Washington State. According to the recent estimates, the Cascadia plate boundary ruptured along its full length in 19 or 20 earthquakes of magnitude 9 in the past 10,000 years; its northern third broke during these giant earthquakes only, and southern segments produced at least 20 additional, lesser earthquakes of Holocene age. The turbidite case for full-length ruptures depends on stratigraphic evidence for simultaneous shaking at the heads of multiple submarine canyons. The simultaneity has been inferred primarily from turbidite counts above a stratigraphic datum, sandy beds likened to strong-motion records, and radiocarbon ages adjusted for turbidity-current erosion. In alternatives proposed here, this turbidite evidence for simultaneous shaking is less sensitive to earthquake size and frequency than previously thought. Turbidites far below a channel confluence, instead of representing the merged flows from two tributaries, monitor the dominant tributary only. Sandy beds low in the turbidites, instead of matching from channel to channel, permit divergent stratigraphic correlations; and rather than approximating strong-motion seismograms, the sandy beds more likely record processes internal to the generation and transformation of subaqueous mass movements. The age adjustments, instead of supporting other evidence that all the northern ruptures were long, are uncertain enough to accord with variation in rupture mode, and this variation improves agreement with onshore paleoseismology. Many of the turbidites counted as evidence for frequent earthquakes on the southern Cascadia plate boundary may instead reflect nearness to steep slopes. This report is meant to aid in the updating of national maps of seismic hazards in Canada and the United States. It offers three main conclusions for consideration at a U.S. hazard-map workshop slated for March 21-22, 2012: If giant earthquakes are the norm for the plate boundary offshore southern Washington, the strongest paleoseismic evidence for this rupture mode is the average earthquake-recurrence interval of about 500 years that is evidenced both offshore in lower Cascadia Channel and onshore at estuaries of southern Washington and northernmost Oregon. The plate boundary offshore southern British Columbia and northern Washington may be capable of producing great earthquakes at an average interval as short as 300 years that is evidenced mainly onshore. Review of more of the turbidite evidence now in press may clarify implications for the hazard maps. Further work on the deep-sea turbidites could target sedimentary processes and chronological uncertainties that may affect the turbidites' sensitivity to fault-rupture lengths and recurrence rates.

Washington;Oregon;California↗

USGS2011

Observing the Greatest Earthquakes: AGU Chapman Conference on Giant Earthquakes and Their Tsunamis: Viña del Mar and Valparaíso, Chile, 16–20 May 2010

An AGU Chapman Conference commemorated the fiftieth anniversary of the 1960 M 9.5 Chile earthquake. Participants reexamined this earthquake, the largest ever recorded instrumentally, and compared it with Chile's February 2010 M 8.8 earthquake. They also addressed the giant earthquake potential of subduction zones worldwide and strategies for reducing losses due to tsunamis. The conference drew 96 participants from 18 countries, and it reached out to public audiences in Chile.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News↗