Geology topics

Brian A. Ebel

Publications and source records attributed to Brian A. Ebel.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Inverse modeling for post-wildfire hydrologic process understanding over snow-dominated watersheds

Wildfire-induced changes to vegetation and soil properties can alter snowpack dynamics and hydrologic processes in ways that complicate predictions of post-wildfire water availability. To better understand these effects, we coupled the Parameter ESTimation in C++ (PEST++) software with the Weather Research & Forecasting Hydrologic model (WRF-Hydro) across three burned, snow-dominated watersheds in the western United States. We incorporated three burn-severity-based land cover categories into WRF-Hydro and used an iterative Ensemble Smoother (iES) within PEST++ to estimate model parameters controlling snow accumulation and melt, infiltration, and streamflow generation. This framework supported three complementary objectives: (1) assessing parameter sensitivities under pre- and post-wildfire conditions, (2) comparing pre- and post-wildfire parameter ensembles to identify wildfire-driven shifts in hydrologic processes, and (3) using counterfactual simulations to isolate the hydrologic response to wildfire from interannual climate variability. Our findings indicate that model parameter sensitivity varied by domain and shifted following wildfire. Maximum snow albedo and snow albedo decay were most influential in the higher-elevation East Troublesome domain, while the rain-snow partitioning temperature threshold dominated in the lower-elevation Chippy Creek and Las Conchas domains. Following wildfire, streamflow sensitivity shifted away from snowpack parameters toward soil hydraulic parameters, consistent with wildfire-driven reductions in evapotranspiration and increases in soil moisture. Incorporating wildfire effects led to complex changes in simulated snowpack accumulation and streamflow timing, generally leading to earlier snowmelt freshet initiation and cessation and reduced late season flows. Simulations were more sensitive to interannual climate variations than wildfire land cover changes. These results highlight both the potential and challenges of ensemble-based inverse modeling for understanding post-wildfire hydrologic change in snow-dominated watersheds.

Colorado, Montana, New Mexico↗

USGS2026

Diverging wildfire regimes and doubling of burn area in western United States water supply watersheds

Recent increases in western United States wildfire activity are raising concerns for regional water supplies. Analyzing the wildfire histories (1940-2024) of 3,100 watersheds, we identify a significant regime shift in the late 20th century. Watersheds with higher runoff ratios, critical for regional water provisioning, have significantly increasing burn area trends. The burned areas double following the late 20th century changepoints. Analysis of 17,000 watersheds reveals a diverging fire regime: a transition from moderate burns (1-20% area) towards minimal (<1%) and extensive (> 20%) events. Vulnerability is greatest in forested and mountainous regions, specifically those providing water to 100,000 or more downstream consumers. An integrated watershed management approach, one that considers land management and downstream water operations, may help secure water supplies and mitigate the cascading hazards from wildfire.

western United States↗

USGS2026

Effects of wildfire on soil hydraulic properties in the western Oregon Cascades

Wildfires can substantially impact the hydrology of forested watersheds, increasing the risk of hydrologic hazards such as flash floods and debris flows. Soil hydraulic properties related to infiltration are a key control in determining the timing and magnitude of these hydrogeomorphic events. In our study, we collected 445 soil cores from burned (216 cores) and unburned (229 cores) reference catchments and analyzed them for soil hydraulic properties 10 months after the 2022 Cedar Creek Fire in Oregon, USA. We observed significantly greater field-saturated hydraulic conductivity ( K fs ), sorptivity ( S ), and wetting front potential ( Ψ f ) in burned soils relative to unburned soils, with median ratios of 5.7, 4.4, and 5.0, respectively. Among low-, moderate-, and high burn severity groups, soil hydraulic properties were not statistically different. Reductions in median soil bulk density with increasing burn severity suggested an expansion of pore sizes, which may have been partially responsible for increasing K fs and S . Additionally, in some burned soil samples, the increase in soil hydraulic properties may have been partially related to a concurrent reduction in “natural background” water repellency that is characteristic of dry, unburned soils in the Western Cascades. We observed no evidence of spatial autocorrelation in K fs using semivariogram analysis. Principal component analysis paired with a k- means cluster analysis suggested that soil physical properties explained variations in soil hydraulic properties better than landscape attributes. Although there is a lack of regional results for comparison, our results trend in the opposite direction from drier, lower net primary productivity regions that are typically studied for post-wildfire soil hydraulic properties.

Oregon↗

USGS2026

Deep critical zone controls on shallow landslides

The deep critical zone (CZ) has long been recognized for its importance in influencing shallow landslides but was not considered feasible to include in slope stability models at the watershed scale. In this study, we demonstrate that simple approximations of the CZ in a fully coupled hydrologic and soil slope stability model can effectively capture the location, timing, and likely size of shallow landslides. To achieve this, we use coupled, process-based models that incorporate the effects of 1) deep CZ structures, 2) three-dimensional transient hydrology, and 3) multidimensional slope stability, calibrated with data from an intensively monitored field site. Our results show that the hydrologically active deep CZ guides groundwater flow, influencing where it drains from or exfiltrates to the soil mantle, producing distinct patterns of soil saturation and seepage forces at the soil-bedrock boundary. Deep conductive weathered critical zone drains the soil mantle, reducing the likelihood of destabilizing pore pressures, while the downslope thinning of the CZ forces groundwater to the surface. This creates localized instability and a tendency for similar-sized landslides across the landscape. In contrast, the absence of conductive weathered bedrock results in more widespread destabilizing pore pressures, leading to larger landslides and the likelihood of landslides earlier in a storm than in landscapes underlain by a deep CZ. Our findings suggest that first-order variations of deep CZ can provide physical explanations for variations observed in the susceptibility, magnitude, and timing of shallow landslides, and that CZ structure may be inferred from patterns and timing of landsliding.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS2026

A review and synthesis of post-wildfire shifts in hydrologic processes and streamflow generation mechanisms

Critical water supply watersheds in the western United States (WUS) are impacted by wildfires, with potential negative effects on water quality and quantity. Scientific understanding is currently insufficient to deliver estimates of wildfire consequences for water quantity that are regionally accurate. Regional variability in the directionality and magnitude of post-wildfire shifts in streamflow generation fuels uncertainty in estimates of wildfire effects on water supply. In this work we provide a narrative review of wildfire effects on hydrologic processes and the resulting changes in streamflow generation mechanisms with a focus on the WUS, incorporating other global regions when pertinent. A conceptual model summary of wildfire effects on streamflow generation emphasizes: (1) precipitation seasonality, (2) synchrony of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, (3) net shifts in interception, evaporation, and transpiration relative to total annual precipitation, (4) vegetation changes, including compensatory uptake and type conversion, (5) degree of overlap in rainfall rates and infiltration, (6) fire extent and severity, (7) burn scar positioning (e.g. in headwaters or proximal to watershed outlet), (8) scale-dependent groundwater leakage, (9) near-surface water storage reduction, and (10) soil to groundwater connectivity. Ongoing gaps and challenges include separating the influences of precipitation variability, water withdrawals, and post-fire land management; compound and overlapping disturbances; and lack of pre-fire data. Notable future opportunities include: harnessing ever-improving gridded and remotely sensed precipitation and fire-effects data; linking geophysical, isotopic tracer, and geochemical signatures to diagnose hydrologic changes; leveraging physically based and data-driven model advancements; and analyzing streamflow generation recovery trajectories across diverse watersheds.

western United States↗

USGS2025

Disparate groundwater responses to wildfire

Post-wildfire investigations of groundwater response reveal a range of outcomes, varying from substantial increases to notable decreases in recharge and baseflow, with some studies indicating negligible or short-lived effects. This review assesses these varied responses within five critical categories: climate, vegetation, hydrogeology, fire characteristics, and the cryosphere, examining both short-term (within 2 years) and intermediate (2–10 years post-fire) effects. Despite considerable variability, some consistent patterns emerge. For instance, in hydroclimatic settings where water input and evaporative demand cycles are out of sync, post-wildfire groundwater responses tend to be positive (i.e., increased flux or storage), whereas under low fire severity conditions or in vegetation types that quickly recover, groundwater responses tend to be negative (i.e., decreased flux or storage). We synthesize relevant findings into a compendium of testable hypotheses aimed at explaining the spatiotemporal variability in observed post-wildfire groundwater responses. A recurring theme is the critical influence of the pre-wildfire groundwater regime on expected response and recovery. We identify opportunities for specific improvements in post-wildfire monitoring and modeling that would further advance capabilities to predict groundwater response. A key area for further research is understanding how wildfire effects on snow dynamics and other cryospheric processes translate to changes in groundwater.

WIREs Water↗

USGS2025

Hysteretic response of suspended-sediment in wildfire affected watersheds of the Pacific Northwest and Southern Rocky Mountains

Wildfires can have a profound impact on hydrosedimentary interactions, or the relationship between sediment and runoff, in forested headwater streams. Quantification of sediment-runoff dynamics at the event scale is integral for understanding source areas and transport of suspended-sediment through a watershed following wildfire. Here we used high-frequency turbidity and stream discharge data, coupled with discrete suspended-sediment measurements, in burned and unburned watersheds in the Southern Rocky Mountains and the western Cascades Range to evaluate the response of fine-grained (clay- and silt-sized particles) suspended-sediment. Hysteresis analysis was conducted on estimated suspended-sediment concentrations (using turbidity as a proxy) and streamflow through measurement of the difference in sediment concentration on the rising and falling limbs of the event hydrograph. All burned watersheds exhibited elevated fine suspended-sediment concentrations relative to concentrations found in pre-fire conditions. Changes to hysteretic response vary and may depend on a watershed's sediment connectivity limitations. Results suggest a watershed's inherent hillslope-to-channel (or lateral) connectivity is the primary factor controlling the relative magnitude of event-driven fine sediment fluxes in watersheds affected by wildfire. While wildfire did promote lateral connectivity through activation of hillslope sources, snowmelt, precipitation characteristics and antecedent conditions were more important drivers of hysteretic response than wildfire. For watersheds influenced by annual snowpack, we identified a predominantly clockwise hysteretic response during snowmelt and counterclockwise events during the late spring and summer months. There were also proportionally more counterclockwise events after wildfire in watersheds with high sediment connectivity. Results suggest contrasting wildfire-related sediment risk potential. Rivers in burned watersheds with high sediment connectivity may pose a higher risk to receiving waterbodies, such as larger tributaries or reservoirs, while rivers with low sediment connectivity may experience long-term sediment-related risk within the watershed above the outlet.

Oregon↗

USGS2025

A review of post-wildfire adaptations of surface-water-quality models: Synthesis, gaps, and opportunities

As wildfires increasingly affect water-supply watersheds, the demand for models to predict water-quality responses is increasing. This work reviews and synthesizes existing post-wildfire applications of water-quality models in the context of geographic and ecohydrological distribution, hydrologic and water-quality response process representation, model parameterization, model and input data scales, model calibration data availability, as well as calibration and performance evaluation approaches. Emphasis is placed on models that simulate water-quality output, rather than sediment and erosional response as the primary focus. Here, identified gaps and opportunities to advance the post-wildfire application of water-quality models include: 1. applying models in under-represented geographic and ecohydrologic regions, 2. simulating multiple streamflow generation mechanisms, including groundwater, with an emphasis on shifting dominant flow pathways as the landscape recovers following wildfire, 3. adding studies that include the simulation of metals, 4. incorporating more biogeochemical and in-stream processes to model applications, 5. applying finer spatial and temporal resolution of precipitation data input as well as finer spatial resolution hydrologic response units, 6. implementing fully distributed grid or element models or finer resolution response units to capture burn severity heterogeneity, 7. collecting enhanced water-quality data for model calibration and validation, 8. conducting model-intercomparison studies, and 9. developing model parameter value guidance in post-wildfire applications. These identified gaps and opportunities may assist users in deciding on key processes and approaches to consider in modeling post-wildfire water-quality conditions.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2024

An intercomparison of DOC estimated from fDOM sensors in wildfire affected streams of the western United States

Wildfires in the western United States (US) have been demonstrated to affect water quality, including dissolved organic carbon (DOC), in streams. Elevated post-wildfire DOC concentration poses a potential risk to drinking water treatment systems. In-stream measurements of fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM), a proxy for DOC, have shown potential to detect dynamic changes in DOC. High frequency monitoring of water temperature, turbidity, and fDOM was used in conjunction with discrete sampling during targeted storm events and at fixed intervals to estimate DOC in five western US streams following wildfires in 2020 and 2021 with the objective to characterise and compare responses to wildfire among sites. The elevated turbidity conditions typical after wildfire presented a challenge to fDOM measurements and there was a need to identify appropriate turbidity corrections at burned sites. A combination of established and novel methods corrected fDOM concentrations for turbidity effects up to 800 Formazin nephelometric units (FNU). Pre-wildfire high frequency water quality data in adjacent burned and unburned watersheds allowed for separation of climate effects on DOC at one of the sites. Hydrology, climate and landcover were more important drivers of post-wildfire DOC yield than wildfire characteristics. Seasonal patterns of DOC were unchanged by wildfire in snowmelt-driven watersheds. Large, transient spikes in DOC concentration following frontal and convective storms were observed post-wildfire at all burned sites, but not at the unburned site. These spikes often exceeded operational thresholds for drinking water treatment. This study highlights the ability to develop high frequency DOC estimates in surface waters up to 800 FNU using fDOM sensors and targeted storm sampling and emphasises the value of high frequency pre-wildfire data in adjacent burned and unburned watersheds for separating climate and wildfire effects.

California, Colorado, Montana, Oregon↗

USGS2024

Intersection of wildfire and legacy mining poses risk to water quality

Mining and wildfires are both landscape disturbances that pose elevated and substantial hazards to water supplies and ecosystems due to increased erosion and transport of sediment, metals, and debris to downstream waters. The risk to water supplies may be amplified when these disturbances occur in the same watershed. This work describes mechanisms by which the intersection of mining and wildfire may lead to elevated metal concentrations in downstream waters: (1) conveyance of metal-rich ash and soil to surface waters, (2) increased dissolution and transport of dissolved metals due to direct contact of precipitation with mine waste, (3) increased erosion and transport of metal-rich sediment from mining waste, (4) remobilization of previously deposited metal-contaminated floodplain sediment by higher postfire flood flows, and (5) increased metal transport from underground mine workings. Predicted increases in wildfire size, frequency, and burn severity, together with the ongoing need for metal resources, indicate that improved mapping, monitoring, modeling, and mitigation techniques are needed to manage the geochemical hazard of the intersection of wildfire and mining and implications for water availability.

Environmental Science and Technology↗

USGS2024

Fire effects on geomorphic processes

Fire-induced geomorphic changes, such as enhanced erosion and debris-flow activity, are expected to increase with climate change owing to increases in fire activity and rainfall intensification. In this Review, we summarize how landscape attributes, rainfall and burn severity influence post-fire geomorphic responses over a range of temporal and spatial scales. Sub-hourly rainfall intensity and burn severity control the magnitude of many post-fire geomorphic process rates through their influence on ground cover and rainfall-runoff partitioning. Post-fire debris flows (PFDFs) make a substantial contribution to the post-fire sediment cascade, transporting sediment from hillslopes to channels, adjacent floodplains and alluvial fans. By the late twenty-first century, PFDF activity is estimated to increase in 68% of areas in which PFDFs have occurred in the past and decrease in only 2% of locations. Once altered by fire, geomorphic state variables — such as infiltration capacity, canopy cover, ground cover and sediment availability — can recover to their pre-fire value or be shifted to a new value. Improved understanding of the factors that influence these post-fire trajectories could support targeted management and intervention strategies. Additionally, monitoring that extends beyond the first 1–3 years after fire and deeper integration of ecohydrological processes into geomorphic models are needed to improve forecasts of post-fire geomorphic responses.

Nature Reviews Earth and Environment↗

USGS2024

Opportunities and challenges for precipitation forcing data in post-wildfire hydrologic modeling applications

The frequency and extent of wildfires have increased in recent decades with immediate and cascading effects on water availability in many regions of the world. Precipitation is used as primary input to hydrologic models and is a critical driver of post-wildfire hydrologic hazards including debris flows, flash floods, water-quality effects, and reservoir sedimentation. These models are valuable tools for understanding the hydrologic response to wildfire but require accurate precipitation data at suitable spatial and temporal resolutions. Wildfires often occur in data-sparse, headwater catchments in complex terrain, and post-wildfire hydrologic effects are particularly sensitive to high-intensity, short-duration precipitation events, which are highly variable and difficult to measure or estimate. Therefore, the assessment and prediction of wildfire-induced changes to watershed hydrology, including the associated effects on ecosystems and communities, are complicated by uncertainty in precipitation data. When direct measurements of precipitation are not available, datasets of indirect measurements or estimates are often used. Choosing the most appropriate precipitation dataset can be difficult as different datasets have unique trade-offs in terms of spatial and temporal accuracy, resolution, and completeness. Here, we outline the challenges and opportunities associated with different precipitation datasets as they apply to post-wildfire hydrologic models and modeling objectives. We highlight the need for expanded precipitation gage deployment in wildfire-prone areas and discuss potential opportunities for future research and the integration of precipitation data from disparate sources into a common hydrologic modeling framework.

WIREs Water↗

USGS2024

Rainfall as a driver of post-wildfire flooding and debris flows: A review and synthesis

The increasing threat of post-wildfire hazards creates an imperative for improved post-wildfire flooding and debris flow prediction capabilities. Because rainfall is a primary driver of predictive hydrology and debris flow initiation and inundation models, recent efforts have emphasized the need for interdisciplinary collaboration between meteorology and post-wildfire hazard science that develops more accurate rainfall estimates with longer lead times. In this work, we identified critical knowledge gaps for developing rainfall estimates and filled those gaps by reviewing recent literature and synthesizing pre-existing datasets. Gap areas were organized into the following general topics: a) rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relations, b) time-varying rainfall, c) spatially varying rainfall, and d) rainfall regimes. Recent key research advances include the increasing availability of gridded quantitative rainfall estimates, the expanded use of distributed hydrologic and erosion models that incorporate spatial and temporal variability in rainfall, and the linking of concepts and modeling from the atmospheric and climate sciences with post-wildfire hazard science. We prototype a rainfall regime regionalization schema that captures self-similar properties of rainfall intensity ( k , the maximum rainfall intensity) and temporal scaling ( n , the decay rate). Our k - n relations schema could serve as a framework for organizing, interpreting, and predicting post-wildfire hydrologic and erosional responses. Finally, we summarize salient gaps for implementing spatiotemporally varying rainfall as the driver of post-wildfire hydrologic models designed to improve the prediction of flooding and debris flow hazards to the built environment for emergency managers.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2024

Upper limits for post-wildfire floods and distinction from debris flows

Upper magnitude limits and scaling with basin size for post-wildfire floods are unknown. An envelope curve was estimated defining post-wildfire flood upper limits as a function of basin area. We show the importance of separating peak flows by floods versus debris flows. Post-wildfire flood maxima are a constant 43 m 3 s −1 km −2 for basins from 0.01 to 23 to 34 km 2 and then declining with added basin area according to a power law relation. Intense rainfall spatial scaling may cause the envelope curve threshold at 23 to 34 km 2 . Post-wildfire flood maxima are smaller than unburned flood maxima for similar basin area. Rainstorm comparisons indicate that post-wildfire floods are triggered by smaller precipitation depths than unburned floods. Post-wildfire exceptional floods are driven by extreme rainfall rates, in contrast to post-wildfire debris flows. Runoff rates for post-wildfire envelope floods are consistent with infiltration-excess runoff. Future increases in precipitation intensity or wildfire frequency and extent could increase post-wildfire flood upper limits.

Science↗

USGS2023

A call for strategic water-quality monitoring to advance assessment and prediction of wildfire impacts on water supplies

Wildfires pose a risk to water supplies in the western U.S. and many other parts of the world, due to the potential for degradation of water quality. However, a lack of adequate data hinders prediction and assessment of post-wildfire impacts and recovery. The dearth of such data is related to lack of funding for monitoring extreme events and the challenge of measuring the outsized hydrologic and erosive response after wildfire. Assessment and prediction of post-wildfire surface water quality would be strengthened by the strategic monitoring of key parameters, and the selection of sampling locations based on the following criteria: (1) streamgage with pre-wildfire data; (2) ability to install equipment that can measure water quality at high temporal resolution, with a focus on storm sampling; (3) minimum of 10% drainage area burned at moderate to high severity; (4) lack of major water management; (5) high-frequency precipitation; and (6) availability of pre-wildfire water-quality data and (or) water-quality data from a comparable unburned basin. Water-quality data focused on parameters that are critical to human and (or) ecosystem health, relevant to water-treatment processes and drinking-water quality, and (or) inform the role of precipitation and discharge on flow paths and water quality are most useful. We discuss strategic post-wildfire water-quality monitoring and identify opportunities for advancing assessment and prediction. Improved estimates of the magnitude, timing, and duration of post-wildfire effects on water quality would aid the water resources community prepare for and mitigate against impacts to water supplies.

Frontiers in Water↗

USGS2023

Modeling post-wildfire hydrologic response: Review and future directions for applications of physically based distributed simulation

Wildfire is a growing concern as climate shifts. The hydrologic effects of wildfire, which include elevated hazards and changes in water quantity and quality, are increasingly assessed using numerical models. Post-wildfire application of physically based distributed models provides unique insight into the underlying processes that affect water resources after wildfire. This work reviews and synthesizes post-wildfire applications of physically based distributed models by examining the scales and geographic/ecohydrologic distribution of model applications, hydrologic response process representation, model parameterization, and model performance metrics. Highlighted gaps and opportunities for advancing physically based distributed hydrologic response modeling after wildfire include the following: (a) applying models in under-represented geographic (S. America, Africa, Asia) and ecohydrologic regions (arid or dry subhumid climates), (b) incorporating all four major streamflow generation mechanisms (infiltration excess, saturation excess, subsurface storm flow, and groundwater flow), (c) representing integrated vadose zone and saturated zone processes to better capture subsurface streamflow generation, (d) building new remotely sensed model parameterization methods for precipitation interception, infiltration, and overland flow that account for burn severity and recovery, (e) incorporating distributed state variables (e.g., soil moisture, groundwater levels) in model performance assessment, (f) designing model intercomparison studies, including field datasets specifically for post-wildfire model development and validation, (g) linking mechanistic vegetation regrowth models with hydrologic models to improve simulation of process shifts as ecosystems recover, and (h) creating a new community modeling framework to integrate modeling advances across the wildfire science community.

Earth's Future↗

USGS2023

Wildfire-induced shifts in groundwater discharge to streams identified with paired air and stream water temperature analyses

Within the western United States, increasingly severe and frequent wildfires may alter the magnitude, timing, and quality of water exported from burned areas by streams. Post-fire hydrologic studies often focus on peak stream flow responses to shifts in runoff generation or on annual streamflow yield response to changes in evapotranspiration following fire. However, the magnitude and duration of wildfire effects on groundwater recharge, changes in subsurface routing, and consequences for stream low flows sourced predominately by baseflow are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate an approach using the amplitude and phase of paired annual air and stream water temperature signals to broadly identify changes in watershed subsurface flow contributions after fire. Watersheds were classified using pre-fire temperature data, as having air-coupled (i.e., reduced apparent groundwater signature), deep groundwater, or shallow groundwater stream temperature signals. Changes in pre- and post-fire paired air and stream water temperature metrics were compared for locations (n = 17) spanning a large range of physiographic and climatic conditions across the western United States. Pre- and post-fire comparisons were computed by quantile using bootstrapped confidence intervals (ci = 95), as well as in aggregate using Kruskal-Wallis and post-hoc Dunn tests. Statistical comparisons of pre- and post-fire temperature metrics suggest that overall, watersheds classified as having minimal groundwater influence are the most likely to experience fire-induced subsurface hydrologic change. More specifically, watersheds classified as having air-coupled or shallow groundwater signals experienced increases in the magnitude of groundwater discharge, with more stable annual thermal regimes post-fire that are less-coupled to ambient air temperature. These findings form the basis of a conceptual framework for watershed resistance to subsurface hydrologic change following fire that can be broadly applied as a first approximation for water management, impacts on aquatic habitat, and post-wildfire response planning.

California, Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2023

Implications of fire-induced evapotranspiration shifts for recharge-runoff generation and vegetation conversion in the western United States

Wildfire has been shown to increase, decrease, or have no detectable effect on actual evapotranspiration (ETa) fluxes in the western United States. Where disturbance-induced shifts are significant, source-water hydrology may be impacted as ETa constitutes the largest outgoing water flux in much of the arid West. We conducted pixel-scale analysis of 30-m ETa data and various meteorologic and landscape variables at 13 burn scars to understand how wildfire disturbance impacted hillslope-to-burn scar-scale hydrology and vegetation conversion. Significant fire-induced ETa reductions (between approximately −15 to −50%) were detected at nine burn scars through the tenth post-fire year, while ETa recovery rate varied substantially by ecoregion and pre-fire vegetation type. Along elevation gradients, both climate and land disturbance influenced the location of runoff/recharge generation zones, and more net water was generated from a snow-dominated burn scar in dry post-fire years than in wet pre-fire years. However, especially in arid locations where ETa is water-limited, compensatory ETa pathways may be more likely to dampen fire effects on total basin water yield where intact vegetation is located between the disturbance footprint and the basin outlet. Relationships between post-fire ETa shifts and early-successional vegetation conversion were also tracked. The majority of burn scars with significant fire-induced ETa reductions experienced conversion patterns typical of the western United States following stand-replacing disturbance, with forests converting to shrub/scrub and/or grassland/herbaceous cover through at least the end of the study period (eight to 15 years depending on date of the fire event). This could have important implications for high-elevation, snow-dominated watersheds – some of the most critical source water areas - as previous research indicates that wildfire activity is moving upslope and into vegetation communities that have not evolved to withstand fire. Finally, we show that much of the Colorado River Basin’s high-yield source water areas are vulnerable to the fire-induced ETa reductions and vegetation conversion observed herein. As such, water managers in the Colorado River Basin can anticipate changes in burn scar hydrology and snowpack mechanics following fire disturbance.

Journal of Hydrology X↗