Geology topics

Bette Otto-Bliesner

Publications and source records attributed to Bette Otto-Bliesner.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Decomposition of physical processes controlling EASM precipitation changes during the mid-Piacenzian: New insights into data–model integration

The mid-Piacenzian warm period (MPWP, ~3.264–3.025 Ma) has gained widespread interest due to its partial analogy with future climate. However, quantitative data–model comparison of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) precipitation during the MPWP is relatively rare, especially due to problems in decoding the imprint of physical processes to climate signals in the records. In this study, pollen-based precipitation records are reconstructed and compared to the multi-model ensemble mean of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). We find spatially consistent precipitation increase in most simulations but a spatially divergent change in MPWP records. We reconcile proxy data and simulation by decomposing physical processes that control precipitation. Our results 1) reveal thermodynamic control of an overall enhancement of EASM precipitation and 2) highlight a distinct control of thermodynamic and dynamical processes on increases of tropical and subtropical EASM precipitation, reflecting the two pathways of water vapor supply that enhance EASM precipitation, respectively.

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science↗

USGS2024

Revisiting the physical processes controlling the tropical atmospheric circulation changes during the Mid-Piacenzian Warm Period

The Mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (MPWP; 3.0–3.3 Ma), a warm geological period about three million years ago, has been deemed as a good past analog for understanding the current and future climate change. Based on 12 climate model outputs from Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), we investigate tropical atmospheric circulation (TAC) changes under the warm MPWP and associated underlying mechanisms by diagnosing both atmospheric static stability and diabatic processes. Our findings underscore the advantage of analyzing atmospheric diabatic processes in elucidating seasonal variations of TAC compared to static stability assessments. Specifically, by diagnosing alterations in diabatic processes, we achieve a quantitative understanding and explanation the following TAC changes (incl. Strength and edge) during the MPWP: the weakened (annual, DJF, JJA) Northern Hemisphere and (DJF) Southern Hemisphere Hadley circulation (HC), reduced (annual, DJF) Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) and enhanced (annual, JJA) Southern Hemisphere HC and (JJA) PWC, and westward shifted (annual, DJF, JJA) PWC. We further addressed that the increasing bulk subtropical static stability and/or decreasing vertical shear of subtropical zonal wind - two crucial control factors for changes in subtropical baroclinicity - may promote HC widening, and vice versa. Consequently, our study of spatial diabatic heating and cooling, corresponding to upward and downward motions within the TAC, respectively, provides a new perspective for understanding the processes controlling seasonal TAC changes in response to surface warming.

Quaternary International↗

USGS2016

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific objectives and experimental design

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, as well as their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for climate model experiments in Phase 2. Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data–model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilize state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land–ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO 2 are emerging on orbital timescales, and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models. Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.

Climate of the Past↗

USGS2013

The continuum of hydroclimate variability in western North America during the last millennium

The distribution of climatic variance across the frequency spectrum has substantial importance for anticipating how climate will evolve in the future. Here we estimate power spectra and power laws (ß) from instrumental, proxy, and climate model data to characterize the hydroclimate continuum in western North America (WNA). We test the significance of our estimates of spectral densities and ß against the null hypothesis that they reflect solely the effects of local (non-climate) sources of autocorrelation at the monthly timescale. Although tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions are generally consistent with this null hypothesis, values of ß calculated from long-moisture sensitive chronologies (as opposed to reconstructions), and other types of hydroclimate proxies, exceed null expectations. We therefore argue that there is more low-frequency variability in hydroclimate than monthly autocorrelation alone can generate. Coupled model results archived as part of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) are consistent with the null hypothesis and appear unable to generate variance in hydroclimate commensurate with paleoclimate records. Consequently, at decadal to multidecadal timescales there is more variability in instrumental and proxy data than in the models, suggesting that the risk of prolonged droughts under climate change may be underestimated by CMIP5 simulations of the future.

Journal of Climate↗

USGS2008

Palaeoclimate

This chapter assesses palaeoclimatic data and knowledge of how the climate system changes over interannual to millennial time scales, and how well these variations can be simulated with climate models. Additional palaeoclimatic perspectives are included in other chapters. Palaeoclimate science has made significant advances since the 1970s, when a primary focus was on the origin of the ice ages, the possibility of an imminent future ice age, and the first explorations of the so-called Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period. Even in the first IPCC assessment (IPCC, 1990), many climatic variations prior to the instrumental record were not that well known or understood. Fifteen years later, understanding is much improved, more quantitative and better integrated with respect to observations and modelling. After a brief overview of palaeoclimatic methods, including their strengths and weaknesses, this chapter examines the palaeoclimatic record in chronological order, from oldest to youngest. This approach was selected because the climate system varies and changes over all time scales, and it is instructive to understand the contributions that lower-frequency patterns of climate change might make in influencing higher-frequency patterns of variability and change. In addition, an examination of how the climate system has responded to large changes in climate forcing in the past is useful in assessing how the same climate system might respond to the large anticipated forcing changes in the future.

Book chapter↗