Geology topics

B.S. Cade

Publications and source records attributed to B.S. Cade.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2011

Foaling rates in feral horses treated with the immunocontraceptive porcine zona pellucida

Locally abundant feral horses (Equus caballus) can rapidly deplete available resources. Fertility control agents present promising nonlethal tools for reducing their population growth rates. We tested the effect of 2 forms of the immunocontraceptive porcine zona pellucida (PZP) on foaling rates in 3 populations of feral horses in the western United States. A liquid form requiring annual boosters was administered at Little Book Cliffs Wild Horse Range, Mesa County (CO), and Pryor Mountain Wild Horse Range, Bighorn County (WY) and Carbon County (MT), and a time-release pellet form designed to produce 2 yr of infertility was administered at McCullough Peaks Herd Management Area, Park County (WY). Average foaling rates (foals born/mare-yr) from direct observation of untreated and treated female horses (mares), 2004-2008, were 60.1% (n = 153 mare-yr) versus 6.6% (n = 91 mare-yr) at Little Book Cliffs, and 62.8% (n = 129 mare-yr) versus 17.7% (n = 79 mare-yr) at Pryor Mountain, respectively. At McCullough Peaks, mean annual foaling rates from 2006 to 2008 were 75.0% (n = 48 mare-yr) for untreated mares and 31.7% (n = 101 mare-yr) for treated mares. Controlling for age of mares and pretreatment differences in fertility, PZP reduced foaling rates in all 3 herds. The pellets used at McCullough Peaks (produced by cold evaporation) were less effective than pellets used in a previous trial and produced by heat extrusion. Immunocontraception with PZP may be a useful tool in reducing fertility rates in some western United States feral horse herds, but population growth reduction will depend on timely access to mares for inoculation and the proportion of mares that can be successfully treated. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2011

Genetic and environmental influences on leaf phenology and cold hardiness of native and introduced riparian trees

To explore the roles of plasticity and genetic variation in the response to spatial and temporal climate variation, we established a common garden consisting of paired collections of native and introduced riparian trees sampled along a latitudinal gradient. The garden in Fort Collins, Colorado (latitude 40.6°N), included 681 native plains cottonwood ( Populus deltoides subsp. monilifera ) and introduced saltcedar ( Tamarix ramosissima , T. chinensis and hybrids) collected from 15 sites at 29.2–47.6°N in the central United States. In the common garden both species showed latitudinal variation in fall, but not spring, leaf phenology, suggesting that the latitudinal gradient in fall phenology observed in the field results at least in part from inherited variation in the critical photoperiod, while the latitudinal gradient in spring phenology observed in the field is largely a plastic response to the temperature gradient. Populations from higher latitudes exhibited earlier bud set and leaf senescence. Cold hardiness varied latitudinally in both fall and spring for both species. For cottonwood, cold hardiness began earlier and ended later in northern than in southern populations. For saltcedar northern populations were hardier throughout the cold season than southern populations. Although cottonwood was hardier than saltcedar in midwinter, the reverse was true in late fall and early spring. The latitudinal variation in fall phenology and cold hardiness of saltcedar appears to have developed as a result of multiple introductions of genetically distinct populations, hybridization and natural selection in the 150 years since introduction.

International Journal of Biometeorology↗

USGS2011

Trophic magnification of PCBs and its relationship to the octanol-water partition coefficient

We investigated polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) bioaccumulation relative to octanol-water partition coefficient (KOW) and organism trophic position (TP) at the Lake Hartwell Superfund site (South Carolina). We measured PCBs (127 congeners) and stable isotopes (??15N) in sediment, organic matter, phytoplankton, zooplankton, macroinvertebrates, and fish. TP, as calculated from ??15N, was significantly, positively related to PCB concentrations, and food web trophic magnification factors (TMFs) ranged from 1.5-6.6 among congeners. TMFs of individual congeners increased strongly with log KOW, as did the predictive power (r2) of individual TP-PCB regression models used to calculate TMFs. We developed log KOW-TMF models for eight food webs with vastly different environments (freshwater, marine, arctic, temperate) and species composition (cold- vs warmblooded consumers). The effect of KOW on congener TMFs varied strongly across food webs (model slopes 0.0-15.0) because the range of TMFs among studies was also highly variable. We standardized TMFs within studies to mean = 0, standard deviation (SD) = 1 to normalize for scale differences and found a remarkably consistent KOW effect on TMFs (no difference in model slopes among food webs). Our findings underscore the importance of hydrophobicity (as characterized by KOW) in regulating bioaccumulation of recalcitrant compounds in aquatic systems, and demonstrate that relationships between chemical KOW and bioaccumulation from field studies are more generalized than previously recognized. ?? This article not subject to U.S. Copyright. Published 2011 by the American Chemical Society.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2011

Estimating equivalence with quantile regression

Equivalence testing and corresponding confidence interval estimates are used to provide more enlightened statistical statements about parameter estimates by relating them to intervals of effect sizes deemed to be of scientific or practical importance rather than just to an effect size of zero. Equivalence tests and confidence interval estimates are based on a null hypothesis that a parameter estimate is either outside (inequivalence hypothesis) or inside (equivalence hypothesis) an equivalence region, depending on the question of interest and assignment of risk. The former approach, often referred to as bioequivalence testing, is often used in regulatory settings because it reverses the burden of proof compared to a standard test of significance, following a precautionary principle for environmental protection. Unfortunately, many applications of equivalence testing focus on establishing average equivalence by estimating differences in means of distributions that do not have homogeneous variances. I discuss how to compare equivalence across quantiles of distributions using confidence intervals on quantile regression estimates that detect differences in heterogeneous distributions missed by focusing on means. I used one-tailed confidence intervals based on inequivalence hypotheses in a two-group treatment-control design for estimating bioequivalence of arsenic concentrations in soils at an old ammunition testing site and bioequivalence of vegetation biomass at a reclaimed mining site. Two-tailed confidence intervals based both on inequivalence and equivalence hypotheses were used to examine quantile equivalence for negligible trends over time for a continuous exponential model of amphibian abundance. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2010

Influences of immunocontraception on time budgets, social behavior, and body condition in feral horses

Managers concerned with shrinking habitats and limited resources for wildlife seek effective tools for limiting population growth in some species. Fertility control is one such tool, yet little is known about its impacts on the behavioral ecology of wild, free-roaming animals. We investigated influences of the immunocontraceptive porcine zona pellucida (PZP) on individual and social behavior in bands of feral horses (Equus caballus) in three discrete populations and used 14 hierarchical mixed effect models to gain insight into the influences of PZP treatment on feral horse behavior. A model of body condition was the strongest predictor of feeding, resting, maintenance, and social behaviors, with treated females allocating their time similarly to control females. Time spent feeding declined 11.4% from low condition to high condition females (F 1,154 = 26.427, P < 0.001) and was partially reciprocated by a 6.0% increase in resting (F 1,154 = 7.629, P = 0.006), 0.9% increase in maintenance (F 1,154 = 7.028, P = 0.009), and 1.8% increase in social behavior (F 1,154 = 15.064, P < 0.001). There was no difference detected in body condition of treated versus control females (F 1,154 = 0.033, P = 0.856), but females with a dependent foal had lower body condition than those without a foal (F 1,154 = 4.512, P = 0.038). Herding behavior was best explained by a model of treatment and the interaction of band fidelity and foal presence (AIC c weight = 0.660) which estimated no difference in rate of herding behavior directed toward control versus treated females (F 1,102 = 0.196, P = 0.659), but resident females without a dependent foal were herded 50.9% more than resident females with a foal (F 3,102 = 8.269, P < 0.001). Treated females received 54.5% more reproductive behaviors from stallions than control mares (F 1,105 = 5.155, P = 0.025), with the model containing only treatment being the most-supported (AIC c weight = 0.530). Treated and control females received harem-tending behaviors from stallions equally (F 1,105 = 0.001, P = 0.969) and agonistic behaviors from stallions equally (F 1,105 < 0.001, P = 0.986). Direct effects of PZP treatment on the behavior of feral horses appear to be limited primarily to reproductive behaviors and most other differences detected were attributed to the effects of body condition, band fidelity, or foal presence. PZP is a promising alternative to traditional hormone-based contraceptives and appears to contribute few short-term behavioral modifications in feral horses.

Applied Animal Behaviour Science↗

USGS2009

Spectral distance decay

Remotely sensed data represents key information for character-izing and estimating biodiversity. Spectral distance among sites has proven to be a powerful approach for detecting species composition variability. Regression analysis of species similarity versus spectral distance may allow us to quantitatively estimate how beta-diversity in species changes with respect to spectral and ecological variability. In classical regression analysis, the residual sum of squares is minimized for the mean of the dependent variable distribution. However, many ecological datasets are characterized by a high number of zeroes that can add noise to the regression model. Quantile regression can be used to evaluate trend in the upper quantiles rather than a mean trend across the whole distribution of the dependent variable. In this paper, we used ordinary least square (OLS) and quantile regression to estimate the decay of species similarity versus spectral distance. The achieved decay rates were statistically nonzero (p < 0.05) considering both OLS and quantile regression. Nonetheless, OLS regression estimate of mean decay rate was only half the decay rate indicated by the upper quantiles. Moreover, the intercept value, representing the similarity reached when spectral distance approaches zero, was very low compared with the intercepts of upper quantiles, which detected high species similarity when habitats are more similar. In this paper we demonstrated the power of using quantile regressions applied to spectral distance decay in order to reveal species diversity patterns otherwise lost or underestimated by ordinary least square regression.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗

USGS2008

Fundamental limits to the accuracy of deuterium isotopes for identifying the spatial origin of migratory animals

Deuterium isotope analyses have revolutionized the study of migratory connectivity because global gradients of deuterium in precipitation (??DP) are expressed on a continental scale. Several authors have constructed continental scale base maps of ??DP to provide a spatial reference for studying the movement patterns of migratory species and, although they are very useful, these maps present a static, 40-year average view of the landscape that ignores much underlying inter-annual variation. To more fully understand the consequences of this underlying variation, we analyzed the GNIP deuterium data, the source for all current ??DP maps, to estimate the minimum separation in ??DP (and latitude) necessary to conclude with a given level of confidence that distinct ??DP values represent different geographic sites. Extending analyses of ??DP successfully to deuterium in tissues of living organisms, e.g., feathers in migratory birds (??DF), is dependent on the existence of geographic separation of ??DP, where every geographic location has a distribution of values associated with temporal variability in ??DP. Analyses were conducted for three distinct geographic regions: North America, eastern North America (east of longitude 100??W), and Argentina. At the 80% confidence level, the minimum separation values were 12, 7, and 14?? of latitude (equivalent to 53, 31, and 32???) for North America, eastern North America, and Argentina, respectively. Hence, in eastern North America, for example, one may not be able to accurately assign individual samples to sites separated by less than about 7?? of latitude as the distributions of ??DP were not distinct at latitudes <7?? apart. Moreover, two samples that differ by less than 31??? cannot be confidently said to originate from different latitudes. These estimates of minimum separation for ??DP do not include other known sources of variation in feather deuterium (??D F) and hence are a first order approximation that may be useful, in the absence of more specific information for the system of interest, for planning and interpreting the results of new stable isotope studies. ?? 2008 Springer-Verlag.

Oecologia↗

USGS2008

Movement patterns and the conservation of amphibians breeding in small, temporary wetlands

Many amphibians breed in water but live most of their lives in terrestrial habitats. Little is known, however, about the spatial distribution of these habitats or of the distances and directions amphibians move to reach breeding sites. The amphibian community at a small, temporary pond in northcentral Florida was monitored for 5 years. Based on captures and recaptures of more than 2500 striped newts (Notophthalmus perstriatus) and 5700 eastern narrow-mouthed toads (Gastrophryne carolinensis), we tabulated the angles of orientation that these amphibians entered and exited the pond basin. Our results showed that movements of these species between the pond and terrestrial habitats were nonrandom in orientation, but that narrow corridors did not appear to be used. Differences between the species likely reflect differences in habitat preferences, whereas intraspecific differences among years and between the sexes likely reflect variation among individuals. For terrestrial buffer zones to be effective at conserving pond-breeding amphibian communities, they need both a distance and a directional component. The determination of a directional component may be obscured if studies are carried out over a short time span. Conservation efforts for wetland-breeding amphibians that concentrate solely on the wetland likely will fail without consideration of the adjacent terrestrial habitat.

Florida↗

USGS2008

Estimating fish body condition with quantile regression

We used quantile regression to compare the body condition of walleye Sander vitreus and white bass Morone chrysops before (1980-1988) and after (1989-2004) the establishment of alewives Alosa pseudoharengus in Lake McConaughy, Nebraska. Higher quantiles (percentiles = 100% x quantiles [0, 1]) of weight (W) at the same total length (TL) were indicative of better body condition in an allometric growth model that included separate slopes and intercepts for the before and after groups. All quantiles of walleye weights by TL increased in the years after alewife introduction, ranging from 1.01 to 1.12 times weights in the years before alewife introduction, with greatest increases for the lower (<0.50) quantiles and greater TLs. Quantiles up to 0.25 (the lowest 25th percentiles) of white bass weights were reduced in years after alewife introduction for TLs less than 300 mm, ranging from 0.78 to 0.98 times weights in the years before alewife introduction. However, quantiles greater than or equal to 0.50 (the upper 50th percentiles) of white bass weights increased for all TLs, ranging from 1.01 to 1.06 times the pre-1988 weights. A three-group analysis, which improved the model fit for longer white bass, indicated a reduction (0.80-1.0) in white bass body condition across all TLs in the first 2 years (1989-1990) after alewife introduction, whereas body condition actually improved (1.02-1.12) across all TLs in later years (1991-2004). Thus, after the establishment of alewives in 1988, walleye body condition improved for all fish at all lengths (the greatest improvement occurring among fish in poorer condition), whereas white bass body condition was initially reduced for all fish at all lengths for 2 years and improved in subsequent years. The approach that we developed for comparing fish body condition before and after a management action in Lake McConaughy could be applied to other weight-length data sets typically evaluated with relative weight indices. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2008

Macrophyte decomposition in a surface-flow ammonia-dominated constructed wetland: Rates associated with environmental and biotic variables

Decomposition of senesced culm material of two bulrush species was studied in a surface-flow ammonia-dominated treatment wetland in southern California. Decomposition of the submerged culm material during summer months was relatively rapid (k = 0.037 day-1), but slowed under extended submergence (up to 245 days) and during fall and spring sampling periods (k = 0.009-0.014 day-1). Stepwise regression of seasonal data indicated that final water temperature and abundance of the culm-mining midge, Glyptotendipes, were significantly associated with culm decomposition. Glyptotendipes abundance, in turn, was correlated with water quality parameters such as conductivity and dissolved oxygen and ammonia concentrations. No differences were detected in decomposition rates between the bulrush species, Schoenoplectus californicus and Schoenoplectus acutus.

Ecological Engineering↗

USGS2008

Quantile regression applied to spectral distance decay

Remotely sensed imagery has long been recognized as a powerful support for characterizing and estimating biodiversity. Spectral distance among sites has proven to be a powerful approach for detecting species composition variability. Regression analysis of species similarity versus spectral distance allows us to quantitatively estimate the amount of turnover in species composition with respect to spectral and ecological variability. In classical regression analysis, the residual sum of squares is minimized for the mean of the dependent variable distribution. However, many ecological data sets are characterized by a high number of zeroes that add noise to the regression model. Quantile regressions can be used to evaluate trend in the upper quantiles rather than a mean trend across the whole distribution of the dependent variable. In this letter, we used ordinary least squares (OLS) and quantile regressions to estimate the decay of species similarity versus spectral distance. The achieved decay rates were statistically nonzero (p < 0.01), considering both OLS and quantile regressions. Nonetheless, the OLS regression estimate of the mean decay rate was only half the decay rate indicated by the upper quantiles. Moreover, the intercept value, representing the similarity reached when the spectral distance approaches zero, was very low compared with the intercepts of the upper quantiles, which detected high species similarity when habitats are more similar. In this letter, we demonstrated the power of using quantile regressions applied to spectral distance decay to reveal species diversity patterns otherwise lost or underestimated by OLS regression. ?? 2008 IEEE.

IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters↗

USGS2008

A quantile count model of water depth constraints on Cape Sable seaside sparrows

1. A quantile regression model for counts of breeding Cape Sable seaside sparrows Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis (L.) as a function of water depth and previous year abundance was developed based on extensive surveys, 1992-2005, in the Florida Everglades. The quantile count model extends linear quantile regression methods to discrete response variables, providing a flexible alternative to discrete parametric distributional models, e.g. Poisson, negative binomial and their zero-inflated counterparts. 2. Estimates from our multiplicative model demonstrated that negative effects of increasing water depth in breeding habitat on sparrow numbers were dependent on recent occupation history. Upper 10th percentiles of counts (one to three sparrows) decreased with increasing water depth from 0 to 30 cm when sites were not occupied in previous years. However, upper 40th percentiles of counts (one to six sparrows) decreased with increasing water depth for sites occupied in previous years. 3. Greatest decreases (-50% to -83%) in upper quantiles of sparrow counts occurred as water depths increased from 0 to 15 cm when previous year counts were 1, but a small proportion of sites (5-10%) held at least one sparrow even as water depths increased to 20 or 30 cm. 4. A zero-inflated Poisson regression model provided estimates of conditional means that also decreased with increasing water depth but rates of change were lower and decreased with increasing previous year counts compared to the quantile count model. Quantiles computed for the zero-inflated Poisson model enhanced interpretation of this model but had greater lack-of-fit for water depths > 0 cm and previous year counts 1, conditions where the negative effect of water depths were readily apparent and fitted better with the quantile count model.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2006

Evaluating redband trout habitat in sagebrush desert basins in southwestern Idaho

We estimated abundance quantiles of redband trout Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdneri relative to five site-specific habitat variables (stream shading, bank cover, bank stability, fine sediment in the stream substrate, and cover for adults) and one landscape variable (distance from stream headwaters) on 30 streams in southwestern Idaho during 1993–1998. In addition, the five site-specific habitat variables were used to calculate a habitat suitability rating (HSR) used by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management to determine habitat quality of sagebrush desert streams for redband trout. Variation in abundance increased significantly with increasing HSR; the highest abundances were only found with high HSRs, indicating that the HSR model correctly predicted habitat quality for redband trout. However, a model that consisted of stream shade, distance from stream headwaters, and their interaction best predicted redband trout density, explaining 36% of the variation in adult density in sagebrush desert basin streams; stream shade explained most of the variation in redband trout density. When habitat quality was modeled on shade alone, the precision in predicting adult redband trout density was similar to that of the HSR model, as evaluated with tolerance intervals that contained 80% of future observations of redband trout density with 95% confidence. Increasing stream shade in the uppermost 50 km of a stream would result in the greatest increase in redband trout density. We recommend that land managers primarily evaluate the habitat quality of sagebrush desert streams by quantifying the amount of stream shade provided by riparian shrubs and trees. Use of a multivariable habitat model should be retained for desert streams where shade from riparian plant communities is limited.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2006

The effect of multiple stressors on salt marsh end-of-season biomass

It is becoming more apparent that commonly used statistical methods (e.g. analysis of variance and regression) are not the best methods for estimating limiting relationships or stressor effects. A major challenge of estimating the effects associated with a measured subset of limiting factors is to account for the effects of unmeasured factors in an ecologically realistic matter. We used quantile regression to elucidate multiple stressor effects on end-of-season biomass data from two salt marsh sites in coastal Louisiana collected for 18 yr. Stressor effects evaluated based on available data were flooding, salinity air temperature, cloud cover, precipitation deficit, grazing by muskrat, and surface water nitrogen and phosphorus. Precipitation deficit combined with surface water nitrogen provided the best two-parameter model to explain variation in the peak biomass with different slopes and intercepts for the two study sites. Precipitation deficit, cloud cover, and temperature were significantly correlated with each other. Surface water nitrogen was significantly correlated with surface water phosphorus and muskrat density. The site with the larger duration of flooding showed reduced peak biomass, when cloud cover and surface water nitrogen were optimal. Variation in the relatively low salinity occurring in our study area did not explain any of the variation in Spartina alterniflora biomass.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

USGS2006

Rank score and permutation testing alternatives for regression quantile estimates

Performance of quantile rank score tests used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1) were evaluated by simulation for models with p = 2 and 6 predictors, moderate collinearity among predictors, homogeneous and hetero-geneous errors, small to moderate samples ( n = 20–300), and central to upper quantiles (0.50–0.99). Test statistics evaluated were the conventional quantile rank score T statistic distributed as χ 2 random variable with q degrees of freedom (where q parameters are constrained by H 0 :) and an F statistic with its sampling distribution approximated by permutation. The permutation F -test maintained better Type I errors than the T -test for homogeneous error models with smaller n and more extreme quantiles τ. An F distributional approximation of the F statistic provided some improvements in Type I errors over the T -test for models with > 2 parameters, smaller n , and more extreme quantiles but not as much improvement as the permutation approximation. Both rank score tests required weighting to maintain correct Type I errors when heterogeneity under the alternative model increased to 5 standard deviations across the domain of X . A double permutation procedure was developed to provide valid Type I errors for the permutation F -test when null models were forced through the origin. Power was similar for conditions where both T - and F -tests maintained correct Type I errors but the F -test provided some power at smaller n and extreme quantiles when the T -test had no power because of excessively conservative Type I errors. When the double permutation scheme was required for the permutation F -test to maintain valid Type I errors, power was less than for the T -test with decreasing sample size and increasing quantiles. Confidence intervals on parameters and tolerance intervals for future predictions were constructed based on test inversion for an example application relating trout densities to stream channel width:depth.

Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation↗

USGS2006

The effect of multiple stressors on salt marsh end-of-season biomass

It is becoming more apparent that commonly used statistical methods (e.g., analysis of variance and regression) are not the best methods for estimating limiting relationships or stressor effects. A major challenge of estimating the effects associated with a measured subset of limiting factors is to account for the effects of unmeasured factors in an ecologically realistic matter. We used quantile regression to elucidate multiple stressor effects on end-of-season biomass data from two salt marsh sites in coastal Louisiana collected for 18 yr. Stressor effects evaluated based on available data were flooding, salinity, air temperature, cloud cover, precipitation deficit, grazing by muskrat, and surface water nitrogen and phosphorus. Precipitation deficit combined with surface water nitrogen provided the best two-parameter model to explain variation in the peak biomass with different slopes and intercepts for the two study sites. Precipitation deficit, cloud cover, and temperature were significantly correlated with each other. Surface water nitrogen was significantly correlated with surface water phosphorus and muskrat density. The site with the larger duration of flooding showed reduced peak biomass, when cloud cover and surface water nitrogen were optimal. Variation in the relatively low salinity occurring in our study area did not explain any of the variation in Spartina alterniflora biomass. ?? 2006 Estuarine Research Federation.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

USGS2005

Linear models: permutation methods

Permutation tests (see Permutation Based Inference) for the linear model have applications in behavioral studies when traditional parametric assumptions about the error term in a linear model are not tenable. Improved validity of Type I error rates can be achieved with properly constructed permutation tests. Perhaps more importantly, increased statistical power, improved robustness to effects of outliers, and detection of alternative distributional differences can be achieved by coupling permutation inference with alternative linear model estimators. For example, it is well-known that estimates of the mean in linear model are extremely sensitive to even a single outlying value of the dependent variable compared to estimates of the median [7, 19]. Traditionally, linear modeling focused on estimating changes in the center of distributions (means or medians). However, quantile regression allows distributional changes to be estimated in all or any selected part of a distribution or responses, providing a more complete statistical picture that has relevance to many biological questions [6]...

Book chapter↗

USGS2005

Determinants of woody cover in African savannas

Savannas are globally important ecosystems of great significance to human economies. In these biomes, which are characterized by the co-dominance of trees and grasses, woody cover is a chief determinant of ecosystem properties 1-3. The availability of resources (water, nutrients) and disturbance regimes (fire, herbivory) are thought to be important in regulating woody cover1,2,4,5, but perceptions differ on which of these are the primary drivers of savanna structure. Here we show, using data from 854 sites across Africa, that maximum woody cover in savannas receiving a mean annual precipitation (MAP) of less than ???650 mm is constrained by, and increases linearly with, MAP. These arid and semi-arid savannas may be considered 'stable' systems in which water constrains woody cover and permits grasses to coexist, while fire, herbivory and soil properties interact to reduce woody cover below the MAP-controlled upper bound. Above a MAP of ???650 mm, savannas are 'unstable' systems in which MAP is sufficient for woody canopy closure, and disturbances (fire, herbivory) are required for the coexistence of trees and grass. These results provide insights into the nature of African savannas and suggest that future changes in precipitation 6 may considerably affect their distribution and dynamics. ?? 2005 Nature Publishing Group.

Nature↗