Geology Reports⌕ Search

Geology topics

B. E. Thomas

Publications and source records attributed to B. E. Thomas.

9 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2007

Climatic fluctuations and forecasting of streamflow in the lower Colorado River Basin

Water-resource managers need to forecast streamflow in the Lower Colorado River Basin to plan for water-resource projects and to operate reservoirs for water supply. Statistical forecasts of streamflow based on historical records of streamflow can be useful, but statistical assumptions, such as stationarity of flows, need to be evaluated. This study evaluated the relation between climatic fluctuations and stationarity and developed regression equations to forecast streamflow by using climatic fluctuations as explanatory variables. Climatic fluctuations were represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Historical streamflow within the 25- to 30-year positive or negative phases of AMO or PDO was generally stationary. Monotonic trends in annual mean flows were tested at the 21 sites evaluated in this study; 76% of the sites had no significant trends within phases of AMO and 86% of the sites had no significant trends within phases of PDO. As climatic phases shifted in signs, however, many sites had nonstationary flows; 67% of the sites had significant changes in annual mean flow as AMO shifted in signs. The regression equations developed in this study to forecast streamflow incorporate these shifts in climate and streamflow, thus that source of nonstationarity is accounted for. The R 2 value of regression equations that forecast individual years of annual flow for the central part of the study area ranged from 0.28 to 0.49 and averaged 0.39. AMO was the most significant variable, and a combination of indices from both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans explained much more variation in flows than only the Pacific Ocean indices. The average R2 value for equations with PDO and SOI was 0.15. ?? 2007 American Water Resources Association.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS1998

Ground-water age, flow, and quality near a landfill, and changes in ground-water conditions from 1976 to 1996 in the Swinomish Indian Reservation, northwestern Washington

This report describes the results of two related studies: a study of ground-water age, flow, and quality near a landfill in the south-central part of the Swinomish Indian Reservation; and a study of changes in ground-water conditions for the entire reservation from 1976 to 1996. The Swinomish Indian Reservation is a 17-square-mile part of Fidalgo Island in northwestern Washington. The groundwater flow system in the reservation is probably independent of other flow systems in the area because it is almost completely surrounded by salt water. There has been increasing stress on the ground-water resources of the reservation because the population has almost tripled during the past 20 years, and 65 percent of the population obtain their domestic water supply from the local ground-water system. The Swinomish Tribe is concerned that increased pumping of ground water might have caused decreased ground-water discharge into streams, declines in ground-water levels, and seawater intrusion into the ground-water system. There is also concern that leachate from an inactive landfill containing mostly household and wood-processing wastes may be contaminating the ground water. The study area is underlain by unconsolidated glacial and interglacial deposits of Quaternary age that range from about 300 to 900 feet thick. Five hydrogeologic units have been defined in the unconsolidated deposits. From top to bottom, the hydrogeologic units are a till confining bed, an outwash aquifer, a clay confining bed, a sea-level aquifer, and an undifferentiated unit. The ground-water flow system of the reservation is similar to other island-type flow systems. Water enters the system through the water table as infiltration and percolation of precipitation (recharge), then the water flows downward and radially outward from the center of the island. At the outside edges of the system, ground water flows upward to discharge into the surrounding saltwater bodies. Average annual recharge is estimated to be about 3 inches, or 12 percent of the average annual precipitation. Ground water in the outwash aquifer near the landfill is estimated to be between 15 and 43 years old. Some deeper ground waters and ground water near the discharge areas close to the shoreline are older than 43 years. Analysis of water-quality data collected for this study and review of existing data indicate that material in the landfill has had no appreciable impact on the current quality of ground water outside of the landfill. The water quality of samples from seven wells near to and downgradient from the landfill appears to be similar to the ground-water quality throughout the entire study area. The high iron and manganese concentrations found in most of the samples from wells near the landfill are probably within the range of natural concentrations for the study area. Ground-water pumping during the past 20 years has not caused any large changes in ground-water discharge to streams, ground-water levels, or seawater intrusion into the ground-water system. Ground-water discharge into Snee-oosh Creek and Munks Creek had similar magnitudes in the summers of 1976 and 1996; flows in both creeks during those summers ranged from 0.07 t 0.15 cubic feet per second. Ground-water levels changed minimally between 1976 and 1996. The average water-level change for 20 wells with more than 10 years between measurements was -0.7 feet and the two largest waterlevel declines were 6 and 9 feet. No appreciable seawater intrusion was found in the ground water in 1996, and there was no significant increase in the extent of seawater intrusion from 1976 to 1996. Median chloride concentrations of water samples collected from wells were 22 milligrams per liter in 1976 and 18 milligrams per liter in 1996.

Washington↗
USGS1994

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in the southwestern United States

Methods have been developed for estimating magni- tude and frequency of floods at gaged and ungaged sites on streams in the southwestern United States. Estimating equations for ungaged sites that apply to small drainage basins were developed by transferring information from ungaged sites using techniques such as multiple regression and a hybrid method developed during this study. Drainage area, mean basin elevation, mean annual precipitation, mean annual evaporation, latitude, and longitude are the basin and climatic charac- teristics needed to use the equations. Flood- frequency relations and selected basin and climatic characteristics, updated through 1986 water year, are tabulated for more than 1,300 gaging stations in the southwestern United States. The study area was divided into 16 flood regions. Generalized least-squares regression was used to define the regression models in 12 regions with a sufficient number of defined flood-frequency relations at gaged sites. Four regions had more than 30 percent of the gaged sites with no defined relations, thus the regression method was not used because of the large amount of missing infor- mation. The hybrid analysis was used in those 4 regions, because it does not require individual flood-frequency relations and thus can use data for all gaging stations in a region. Average standard error of prediction for the 12 regions with generalized least-squares models ranged from 39 to 95 percent for the 100-year peak discharge. The estimated average standard error of the four hybrid models ranged from 0.44 to 1.8 log units for the 100-year peak discharge.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1992

New look at regional flood-frequency relations for arid lands

A new method is proposed that combines records for several streamflow-gaging stations, as in the station-year approach, and produces regional flood-frequency relations using an iterative regression technique. This technique eliminates the need to extrapolate the flood-frequency relation to the flood probability of interest. The resulting multiparameter regional flood-frequency relation is based on all the available annual peak-flow data. The method was applied to a group of records from 42 gaging stations in Nevada with many years of no flow and with many poorly defined flood-frquency relations. One- and two-parameter models were developed in which much of the variance in peak discharge is explained by drainage area. The log-Pearson type III and Weibull probability distributions were used in the models. Part of the error is directly assessed using randomly selected subsamples of the annual peak discharges. -from Authors

Journal of Hydraulic Engineering↗
USGS1989

Simulation analysis of the ground-water system in Mesozoic rocks in the Four Corners area, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico

The steady-state groundwater system in Mesozoic rocks in the Four Corners area, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico, was simulated with a finite-difference digital-computer model to improve the understanding of the system. The simulated area is 4 ,100 sq mi, and it includes three aquifers. The Entrada-Navajo aquifer includes the Wingate, Navajo, and Entrada Sandstones. The Morrison aquifer includes the sandstone units of the Morrison Formation. The Dakota aquifer includes the Burro Canyon Formation and Dakota Sandstone. The simulation of the groundwater system had a mean error (error is absolute value of residual) of 70 ft for the Entrada-Navajo aquifer, 67 ft for the Morrison aquifer and 79 ft for the Dakota aquifer. The hydraulic conductivity used in the simulation ranged from 0.38 to 0.47 ft/day. Simulated inflow to the groundwater system was 30,000 acre-ft/yr. 48% of the inflow is from infiltration of precipitation within the simulated area, and 42% is from infiltration in 145 sq mi of mountain areas adjacent to the simulated area. Simulations indicated that some vertical inflow of water is needed between the Entrada-Navajo and Morrison aquifers to develop a reasonable representation of the system.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗
USGS1986

Simulation analysis of water-level changes in the Navajo sandstone due to changes in the altitude of Lake Powell near Wahweap Bay, Utah and Arizona

A two-dimensional, finite difference, digital computer model was used to simulate various concepts of groundwater flow near Wahweap Bay, Lake Powell. The filling of Lake Powell started in March 1963; and by 1983 the lake had risen almost 550 ft. This resulted in a maximum observed water level rise of 395 ft in a well in the Navajo Sandstone 1 mi from the lake. A steady-state model was prepared with subsurface recharge rates of 5,720 acre-ft/yr, 10,440 acre-ft/yr, and 14,820 acre-ft/yr, resulting in a range of hydraulic conductivity of 0.25 to 3.38 ft/da. Comparing measured and simulated water level changes resulted in a range of specific yield of 0.02 to 0.15. Using larger values for hydraulic conductivity in the model area corresponding to the axis of the Wahweap syncline and the Echo monocline was instrumental in attaining a reasonable match for the water level distribution. This supports previous concepts that areas where rocks are structurally deformed more readily transmit groundwater because of the higher degree of fracturing. Using the most likely simulation of the flow system, groundwater storage in the Navajo increased by about 25,000 acre ft/mi of shoreline form 1963-83, but the flow system will require about 400 yr to reach a state of equilibrium. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1983

Methods for estimating peak discharge and flood boundaries of streams in Utah

Equations for estimating 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year peak discharges and flood depths at ungaged sites in Utah were developed using multiple-regression techniques. Ratios of 500- to 100-year values also were determined. The peak discharge equations are applicable to unregulated streams and the flood depth equations are applicable to the unregulated flow in natural stream channels. The flood depth data can be used to approximate flood prone areas. Drainage area and mean basin elevation are the two basin characteristics needed to use these equations. The standard error of estimate ranges from 38% to 74% for the 100-year peak discharge and from 23% to 33% for the 100-year flood depth. Five different flood mapping methods are described. Streams are classified into four categories as a basis for selecting a flood mapping method. Procedures for transferring flood depths obtained from the regression equations to a flood boundary map are outlined. Also, previous detailed flood mapping by government agencies and consultants is summarized to assist the user in quality control and to minimize duplication of effort. Methods are described for transferring flood frequency data from gaged to ungaged sites on the same stream. Peak discharge and flood depth frequency relations and selected basin characteristics data, updated through the 1980 water year, are tabulated for more than 300 gaging stations in Utah and adjoining states. In addition, weighted estimates of peak discharge relations based on the station data and the regression estimates are provided for each gaging station used in the regression analysis. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗