Geology topics

Arnold J. Ammann

Publications and source records attributed to Arnold J. Ammann.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2022

Factors affecting spatiotemporal variation in survival of endangered winter-run Chinook Salmon outmigrating from the Sacramento River

Among four extant and declining Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) runs in California’s Central Valley, none have declined as precipitously as Sacramento River winter-run Chinook Salmon. In addition to habitat loss, migratory winter-run employ a life history strategy to reside and feed in stopover habitats on their way from freshwaters to the ocean. This life history strategy is widely considered to be a key factor in the continued decline of winter-run. Using acoustic telemetry, we examined conditions that influenced reach-specific movement and survival of outmigrating juveniles during a prolonged, multi-year drought from 2013-2016, followed by one of the wettest years on record in 2017. We modeled how time-varying individual riverine covariates and reach-specific habitat features influenced smolt survival. Model selection favored a model with mean annual flow, intra-annual deviations from the mean flow at the reach scale, reach-specific channel characteristics, and travel time. Mean annual flow had the strongest positive effect on survival. A negative interaction between mean annual flow and intra-annual reach flow indicated that within-year deviations at the reach scale from annual mean flow had larger effects on survival in low flow years. These factors resulted in higher survival in years with pulse flows or high flows. Changes in movement behavior in response to small scale changes in velocity were negatively associated with survival. Covariates of revetment and wooded bank habitat were positively associated with survival but the effect of these fixed habitat features changed depending on whether they were situated in the upper or lower part of the river. Fish exhibited density dependent stopover behavior, with slowed downstream migration in the upper river in the wet years and extending to the lower river in the most critically dry year. This paper contributes two key findings for natural resource managers interested in flow management and targeted habitat restoration. The first is new insight to how the magnitude of pulse flows in dry and wet years affect survival of winter-run. The second is that density dependence influences where stopover habitat is used. Despite this, we identified an area of the river where fish consistently exhibited stopover behavior in all years.

California↗

USGS2022

From drought to deluge: Spatiotemporal variation in migration routing, survival, travel time and floodplain use of an endangered migratory fish

We developed a novel statistical model to relate the daily survival and migration dynamics of an endangered anadromous fish to river flow and water temperature during both extreme drought and severe flooding in an intensively managed river system. Our Bayesian temporally stratified multistate mark recapture model integrates over unobserved travel times and route transitions to efficiently estimate covariate relationships and includes an adjustment for telemetry tag battery failure. We applied the model to acoustic-tagged juvenile Sacramento river winter-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and found that survival decreased with decreasing river flows and increased water temperatures. We found that fish were likely to enter at a large floodplain during flood conditions and that survival in floodplain was comparable to the mainstem Sacramento river. Our study demonstrates the response of an endangered anadromous fish population to extreme spatial and temporal variability in habitat accessibility and quality. The general model framework we introduce here can be applied to telemetry of migratory fish through systems with multiple routes to efficiently estimate spatiotemporal variation in survival, travel time, and routing.

California↗

USGS2020

Outmigration survival of wild Chinook salmon smolts through the Sacramento River during historic drought and high water conditions

Populations of wild spring-run Chinook salmon in California’s Central Valley, once numbering in the millions, have dramatically declined to record low numbers. Dam construction, habitat degradation, and altered flow regimes have all contributed to depress populations, which currently persist in only a few tributaries to the Sacramento River. Mill Creek (Tehama County) continues to support these threatened fish, and contains some of the most pristine spawning and rearing habitat available in the Central Valley. Despite this pristine habitat, the number of Chinook salmon returning to spawn has declined to record low numbers, likely due to poor outmigration survival rates. From 2013-2017, 334 smolts were captured and acoustic tagged while out-migrating from Mill Creek, allowing for movement and survival rates to be tracked over 250 kilometers through the Sacramento River. During this study California experienced both a historic drought and record rainfall, resulting in dramatic fluctuations in year-to-year river flow and water temperature. Cumulative survival of tagged smolts from Mill Creek through the Sacramento River was 9.5% (±1.6) during the study, with relatively low survival during historic drought conditions in 2015 (4.9% ± 1.6) followed by increased survival during high flows in 2017 (42.3% ± 9.1). Survival in Mill Creek and the Sacramento River was modeled over a range of flow values, which indicated that higher flows in each region result in increased survival rates. Survival estimates gathered in this study can help focus management and restoration actions over a relatively long migration corridor to specific regions of low survival, and provide guidance for management actions in the Sacramento River aimed at restoring populations of threatened Central Valley spring-run Chinook salmon.

California↗

USGS2019

Estimating spatial–temporal differences in Chinook salmon outmigration survival with habitat- and predation-related covariates

Low survival rates of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) smolts in California’s Central Valley have been attributed to multiple biological and physical factors, but it is not clear which factors have the largest impact. We used 5 years of acoustic telemetry data for 1709 late-fall Chinook salmon smolts to evaluate the effect of habitat- and predation-related covariates on outmigration survival through the Sacramento River. Using a Cormack–Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model, we estimated survival rates both as a function of covariates (covariate model) and as a function of river location and release year (spatial–temporal model). Our covariate model was overwhelmingly supported as the preferred model based on model selection criteria, suggesting the covariates adequately replicated spatial and temporal patterns in smolt survival. The covariates in the selected model included individual fish covariates, habitat-specific covariates, and temporally variable physical conditions. The most important covariate affecting salmon survival was flow. We describe the importance of these parameters in the context of juvenile salmon predation risk and suggest that additional research on predator distribution and density could improve model estimates.

California↗

USGS2018

Flow-mediated effects on travel time, routing, and survival of juvenile Chinook salmon in a spatially complex, tidally forced river delta

We evaluated the interacting influences of river flows and tides on travel time, routing, and survival of juvenile late-fall Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) migrating through the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta. To quantify these effects, we jointly modeled the travel time, survival, and migration routing in relation to individual time-varying covariates of acoustic-tagged salmon within a Bayesian framework. We used observed arrival times for detected individuals and imputed arrival times for undetected individuals to assign covariate values in each reach. We found travel time was inversely related to river inflow in all reaches, yet survival was positively related to inflow only in reaches that transitioned from bidirectional tidal flows to unidirectional flow with increasing inflows. We also found that the probability of fish entering the interior Delta, a low-survival reach, declined as inflow increased. Our study illustrates how river inflows interact with tides to influence fish survival during the critical transition between freshwater and ocean environments. Furthermore, our analytical framework introduces new techniques to integrate formally over missing covariate values to quantify effects of time-varying covariates.

California↗