Geology topics

Ann Bostrom

Publications and source records attributed to Ann Bostrom.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2022

Development of a companion questionnaire for “Did You Feel It?”: Assessing response in earthquakes where an earthquake early warning may have been received

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are relatively new technologies having first emerged as regional systems in the 1990s. Japan was the first nation to develop and implement a nationwide system in October 2007, and in the United States, ShakeAlert ® became available on the entire length of the US West Coast in May 2021. Assessing how EEW is perceived and utilized by alert recipients is considered essential. Such assessments are necessary to evaluate whether alert recipients are taking advantage of alert messages to initiate protective actions upon receipt of an alert, how they regard the usefulness of alerts, desirable thresholds for issuing alerts, and other aspects of these systems. Having information from users will also facilitate assessments of the success of earthquake preparedness educational programs such as the ShakeOut and whether annual drills which include information on EEW systems are resulting in behavioral response consistent with the content of these programs. Finally, information on EEW utilization will provide data useful to social scientists who study hazards to advance our understanding of behavioral response to warnings. Survey research in the aftermath of a significant earthquake in which an EEW has been issued is one obvious method of achieving these objectives and there already exist a number of survey instruments for this purpose. A related strategy and the goal of the present research is to develop a brief questionnaire, consistent with those already developed, as a supplement to the United States Geological Survey’s “Did You Feel It?” questionnaire that has provided earthquake intensities and information on behavioral response in earthquakes, both domestic and international, since 2004. Having the intensity level at each respondent’s location is essential for relating their perspectives and actions to the shaking they experienced.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2022

The effects of earthquake experience on intentions to respond to Earthquake Early Warnings

Warning systems are essential for providing people with information so they can take protective action in response to perils. Systems need to be human-centered, which requires an understanding of the context within which humans operate. Therefore, our research sought to understand the human context for Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) in Aotearoa New Zealand, a location where no comprehensive EEW system existed in 2019 when we did this study. We undertook a survey of people's previous experiences of earthquakes, their perceptions of the usefulness of a hypothetical EEW system, and their intended responses to a potential warning (for example, Drop, Cover, Hold (DCH), staying still, performing safety actions). Results showed little difference in perceived usefulness of an EEW system between those with and without earthquake experience, except for a weak relationship between perceived usefulness and if a respondent's family or friends had previously experienced injury, damage or loss from an earthquake. Previous earthquake experience was, however, associated with various intended responses to a warning. The more direct, or personally relevant a person's experiences were, the more likely they were to intend to take a useful action on receipt of an EEW. Again, the type of experience which showed the largest difference was having had a family member or friend experience injury, damage or loss. Experience of participation in training, exercises or drills did not seem to prompt the correct intended actions for earthquake warnings; however, given the hypothetical nature of the study, it is possible people did not associate their participation in drills, for example, with a potential action that could be taken on receipt of an EEW. Our analysis of regional differences highlighted that intentions to mentally prepare on receipt of a warning were significantly higher for Canterbury region participants, most likely related to strong shaking and subsequent impacts experienced during the 2010–11 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence. Our research reinforces that previous experience can influence earthquake-related perceptions and behaviors, but in different ways depending on the context. Public communication and interventions for EEW could take into consideration different levels and types of experiences of the audience for greater success in response.

Frontiers in Communications↗

USGS2022

Great expectations for earthquake early warnings on the United States West Coast

In October 2019, California became the first state in the United States to fully activate a public earthquake early warning system—ShakeAlert®—managed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The system was subsequently rolled out in March 2021 in Oregon and May 2021 in Washington. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems can provide seconds of notice to people and technological systems that shaking is imminent, but their effectiveness depends on recipients’ expectations and actions as well as technical performance. To better understand these dependencies, we surveyed representative samples of adults in California (N = 1219), Oregon (N = 1020), and Washington (N = 1037) in February 2021. Most respondents had experienced earthquakes, but few had lived through violent shaking; most had not followed protective action guidance to Drop, Cover, and Hold On (DCHO) in earthquakes; and most reported no personal or social harm from prior earthquakes. Nevertheless, expectations and perceived usefulness of EEW were high, and higher still for those who expected alerts to be accurate and easy to use, expressed tolerance of missed and erroneous warnings, and expected to be affected by a damaging earthquake in their lifetime. Results suggest opportunities to better align public preferences and expectations with ShakeAlert operations. For example, some respondents preferred lower alerting thresholds than those proposed by government and scientists. Moreover, reported tolerance of warning errors was widespread, but respondents wanted explanations quickly, suggesting a need to further develop post-alert messaging. Findings from this study should be informative for future research on the co-evolution of experiences and expectations with EEW systems.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2022

Evidence-based guidelines for protective actions and earthquake early warning systems

Earthquake early warning systems (EEW) are becoming increasingly available or in development throughout the world. With public alerting in Mexico, Japan, Taiwan, and parts of the United States, it is important to provide evidence-based recommendations for protective action so people can protect themselves when they receive an alert. Best-practice warning communication research suggests that providing a protective action will increase the efficacy of the message. However, given the diversity of earthquakes and building types, as well as social and cultural contexts where these systems exist, the question is: what is the best protective action to recommend? The answer lies in maximizing life-saving protective actions during an earthquake event requires both contextually relevant messaging and widespread public education about appropriate protective actions under a range of conditions. By researching previous earthquake injury literature, examining current best practices and public education campaigns, key protective actions may be determined and used to increase the life-saving potential of earthquake early warning systems.

Geophysics↗

USGS2020

Developing post-alert messaging for ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States of America

As ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the U.S., begins its transition to operational public alerting, we explore how post-alert messaging might represent system performance. Planned post-alert messaging can provide timely, crucial information to both emergency managers and ShakeAlert operators as well as calibrate expectations among various publics or public user groups and inform their responses to future alerts. There is a concern among the scientists and emergency managers that false alerts may negatively impact trust in the system, so quickly disseminated post-alert messages are necessary. For a new early warning system, such as ShakeAlert, this is particularly relevant given that the potentially affected population is likely to be unfamiliar with this system. We address this concern in six steps: (1) assessment of ShakeAlert performance to date, (2) characterization of human behavior and response to earthquake alerts, (3) presentation of a decision tree for issuing post-alert messages, (4) design of a critical set of post-alert messaging scenarios, (5) elaboration of these scenarios with message templates for a variety of communication channels, and (6) development of a typology of earthquake alerts. We further explore methods for monitoring and evaluating ShakeAlert post-alert messaging, for continuous improvement to the system.

California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Nevada, Uta↗