Geology topics

Anita C Engelstad

Publications and source records attributed to Anita C Engelstad.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Projections of multiple climate-related coastal hazards for the US Southeast Atlantic

Faced with accelerating sea level rise and changing ocean storm conditions, coastal communities require comprehensive assessments of climate-driven hazard impacts to inform adaptation measures. Previous studies have focused on flooding but rarely on other climate-related coastal hazards, such as subsidence, beach erosion and groundwater. Here, we project societal exposure to multiple hazards along the Southeast Atlantic coast of the United States. Assuming 1 m of sea level rise, more than 70% of the coastal residents and US \ $ 1 trillion in property are in areas projected to experience shallow and emerging groundwater, 15 times higher than daily flooding. Storms increase flooding exposure by an order of magnitude over daily flooding, which could impact up to ~50% of all coastal residents and US \ $ 770 billion in property value. The loss of up to ~80% of present-day beaches and high subsidence rates that currently affect over 1 million residents will exacerbate flooding and groundwater hazard risks.

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, ↗

USGS2023

Numerical model characterization of sediment transport potentials pre- and post-construction of an artificial island in Foggy Island Bay, Alaska

The anticipated construction of the Liberty Development Island near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, has created a need to understand how the island may influence sediment transport patterns and deposition on the nearby Boulder Patch ecosystem. This study uses a numerical model to characterize sediment transport pathways in Foggy Island Bay with and without the artificial island in place. We present the Delft3D-based model setup and application that yields an improved quantification and understanding of the region’s hydrodynamic, wave, and sediment transport patterns. The results for the present show mainly east-west directed, alongshore transport of silt and clay. Insertion of the planned island results in limited changes to the overall hydrodynamic and sediment transport patterns within the Bay but reverses erosional tendencies across a boulder patch, situated within a kilometer of the planned construction location, to being net depositional.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Central Beaufort Sea Wave and Hydrodynamic Modeling Study; Report 2: Modeled waves, hydrodynamics, and sediment transport within Foggy Island Bay

Renewed interest in nearshore oil exploration and production in the shallow waters of the Central Beaufort Sea Shelf has created a need to advance our understanding of the past, current, and future atmospheric and oceanographic conditions that affect existing and planned infrastructure and nearshore ecosystems. At the time of writing this report, Hilcorp Alaska LLC has received BOEM approval for an oil and gas Development and Production Plan (DPP) that includes the construction of the Liberty Drilling Island (LDI) in Foggy Island Bay, situated within Stefansson Sound circa 30 km east of Prudhoe Bay (Figure 1.1). The aim of this study is to investigate how longer periods of open water (defined as < 15% ice cover), decreased sea ice cover, and changes in ocean and atmospheric conditions might affect wave and storm surge conditions, sediment transport patterns, and coastal erosion rates within Foggy Island Bay as well as the modeled influence of the offshore artificial island on sediment transport patterns.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Central Beaufort Sea Wave and Hydrodynamic Modeling Study--Report 1: Field measurements and model development

Renewed interest in nearshore oil exploration and production in the shallow waters of the Central Beaufort Sea Shelf has created a need to advance our understanding of the past, current, and future atmospheric and oceanographic conditions that affect existing and planned infrastructure and nearshore ecosystems. At the time of writing this report, Hilcorp Alaska, LLC, has received BOEM approval for an oil and gas Development and Production Plan (DPP) that includes the construction of the Liberty Drilling Island (LDI) in Foggy Island Bay, situated within Stefansson Sound circa 30 km east of Prudhoe Bay (Figure 1.1). The aim of this study is to investigate how longer periods of open water (defined as < 15% ice cover), decreased sea ice cover, and changes in ocean and atmospheric conditions might affect wave and storm surge conditions, sediment transport patterns, and coastal erosion rates within Foggy Island Bay as well as the modeled influence of the offshore artificial island on sediment transport patterns.

Foggy Island Bay↗

USGS2022

The effect of changing sea ice on wave climate trends along Alaska's central Beaufort Sea coast

Diminishing sea ice is impacting the wave field across the Arctic region. Recent observation- and model-based studies highlight the spatiotemporal influence of sea ice on offshore wave climatologies, but effects within the nearshore region are still poorly described. This study characterizes the wave climate in the central Beaufort Sea coast from 1979 to 2019 by utilizing a wave hindcast model that uses ERA5 winds, waves, and ice concentrations as input. The spectral wave model SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) is calibrated and validated based on more than 10 000 in situ time point measurements collected over a 13-year time period across the region, with friction variations and empirical coefficients for newly implemented empirical ice formulations for the open-water and shoulder seasons. Model results and trends are analyzed over the 41-year time period using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test, including an estimate of Sen's slope. The model results show that the reduction in sea ice concentration correlates strongly with increases in average and extreme wave conditions. In particular, the open-water season extended by ∼96 d over the 41-year time period (∼2.4 d yr−1), resulting in a 5-fold increase in the yearly cumulative wave power. Moreover, the open-water season extends later into the year, resulting in relatively more open-water conditions during fall storms with high wind speeds. The later freeze-up results in an increase in the annual offshore median wave heights of 1 % yr−1 and an increase in the average number of rough wave days (defined as days when maximum wave heights exceed 2.5 m) from 1.5 in 1979 to 13.1 d in 2019. Trends in the nearshore areas deviate from the patterns offshore. Model results indicate a saturation limit for high wave heights in the shallow areas of Foggy Island Bay. Similar patterns are found for yearly cumulative wave power.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Seven decades of coastal change at Barter Island, Alaska: Exploring the importance of waves and temperature on erosion of coastal permafrost bluffs

Observational data of coastal change over much of the Arctic are limited largely due to its immensity, remoteness, harsh environment, and restricted periods of sunlight and ice-free conditions. Barter Island, Alaska, is one of the few locations where an extensive, observational dataset exists, which enables a detailed assessment of the trends and patterns of coastal change over decadal to annual time scales. Coastal bluff and shoreline positions were delineated from maps, aerial photographs, and satellite imagery acquired between 1947 and 2020, and at a nearly annual rate since 2004. Rates and patterns of shoreline and bluff change varied widely over the observational period. Shorelines showed a consistent trend of southerly erosion and westerly extension of the western termini of Barter Island and Bernard Spit, which has accelerated since at least 2000. The 3.2 km long stretch of ocean-exposed coastal permafrost bluffs retreated on average 114 m and at a maximum of 163 m at an average long-term rate (70 year) of 1.6 ± 0.1 m/yr. The long-term retreat rate was punctuated by individual years with retreat rates up to four times higher (6.6 ± 1.9 m/yr; 2012–2013) and both long-term (multidecadal) and short-term (annual to semiannual) rates showed a steady increase in retreat rates through time, with consistently high rates since 2015. A best-fit polynomial trend indicated acceleration in retreat rates that was independent of the large spatial and temporal variations observed on an annual basis. Rates and patterns of bluff retreat were correlated to incident wave energy and air and water temperatures. Wave energy was found to be the dominant driver of bluff retreat, followed by sea surface temperatures and warming air temperatures that are considered proxies for evaluating thermo-erosion and denudation. Normalized anomalies of cumulative wave energy, duration of open water, and air and sea temperature showed at least three distinct phases since 1979: a negative phase prior to 1987, a mixed phase between 1987 and the early to late 2000s, followed by a positive phase extending to 2020. The duration of the open-water season has tripled since 1979, increasing from approximately 40 to 140 days. Acceleration in retreat rates at Barter Island may be related to increases in both thermodenudation, associated with increasing air temperature, and the number of niche-forming and block-collapsing episodes associated with higher air and water temperature, more frequent storms, and longer ice-free conditions in the Beaufort Sea.

Alaska↗