Geology topics

Alexa R. Van Eaton

Publications and source records attributed to Alexa R. Van Eaton.

45 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

USGS2017

Ongoing efforts to make ash-cloud model forecasts more accurate

The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland changed the rules for air travel in Europe and introduced the use of restricted fly zones based on ash-cloud concentrations calculated by dispersion models. This change prompted a sustained effort to improve the accuracy of ash-cloud model forecasts. In this paper we describe how this goal is being advanced on three fronts: (1) assessing current capabilities and establishing best practices; (2) improving the accuracy of model inputs; and (3) developing strategies to automatically compare model output with observations and adjust inputs to produce the best match. Progress has been made on all three fronts. A key lesson is that accuracy can only be quantified by comparison with reliable observations, which are often elusive. Model improvements will have to be made in tandem with new technologies to observe and measure.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2016

Adjusting particle-size distributions to account for aggregation in tephra-deposit model forecasts

Volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD) models are used to forecast tephra deposition during volcanic eruptions. Model accuracy is limited by the fact that fine-ash aggregates (clumps into clusters), thus altering patterns of deposition. In most models this is accounted for by ad hoc changes to model input, representing fine ash as aggregates with density ρ agg , and a log-normal size distribution with median μ agg and standard deviation σ agg . Optimal values may vary between eruptions. To test the variance, we used the Ash3d tephra model to simulate four deposits: 18 May 1980 Mount St. Helens; 16–17 September 1992 Crater Peak (Mount Spurr); 17 June 1996 Ruapehu; and 23 March 2009 Mount Redoubt. In 192 simulations, we systematically varied μ agg and σ agg , holding ρ agg constant at 600 kg m −3 . We evaluated the fit using three indices that compare modeled versus measured (1) mass load at sample locations; (2) mass load versus distance along the dispersal axis; and (3) isomass area. For all deposits, under these inputs, the best-fit value of μ agg ranged narrowly between ∼ 2.3 and 2.7 φ (0.20–0.15 mm), despite large variations in erupted mass (0.25–50 Tg), plume height (8.5–25 km), mass fraction of fine ( < 0.063 mm) ash (3–59 %), atmospheric temperature, and water content between these eruptions. This close agreement suggests that aggregation may be treated as a discrete process that is insensitive to eruptive style or magnitude. This result offers the potential for a simple, computationally efficient parameterization scheme for use in operational model forecasts. Further research may indicate whether this narrow range also reflects physical constraints on processes in the evolving cloud.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics↗

USGS2016

Volcanic lightning and plume behavior reveal evolving hazards during the April 2015 eruption of Calbuco volcano, Chile

Soon after the onset of an eruption, model forecasts of ash dispersal are used to mitigate the hazards to aircraft, infrastructure and communities downwind. However, it is a significant challenge to constrain the model inputs during an evolving eruption. Here we demonstrate that volcanic lightning may be used in tandem with satellite detection to recognize and quantify changes in eruption style and intensity. Using the eruption of Calbuco volcano in southern Chile on 22-23 April 2015, we investigate rates of umbrella cloud expansion from satellite observations, occurrence of lightning, and mapped characteristics of the fall deposits. Our remote-sensing analysis gives a total erupted volume that is within uncertainty of the mapped volume (0.56 ±0.28 km3 bulk). Observations and volcanic plume modeling further suggest that electrical activity was enhanced both by ice formation in the ash clouds >10 km asl and development of a low-level charge layer from ground-hugging currents.

Calbuco volcano↗

USGS2016

Monogenetic volcanoes fed by interconnected dikes and sills in the Hopi Buttes volcanic field, Navajo Nation, USA

Although monogenetic volcanic fields pose hazards to major cities worldwide, their shallow magma feeders (<500 m depth) are rarely exposed and, therefore, poorly understood. Here, we investigate exposures of dikes and sills in the Hopi Buttes volcanic field, Arizona, to shed light on the nature of its magma feeder system. Shallow exposures reveal a transition zone between intrusion and eruption within 350 m of the syn-eruptive surface. Using a combination of field- and satellite-based observations, we have identified three types of shallow magma systems: (1) dike-dominated, (2) sill-dominated, and (3) interconnected dike-sill networks. Analysis of vent alignments using the pyroclastic massifs and other eruptive centers (e.g., maar-diatremes) shows a NW-SE trend, parallel to that of dikes in the region. We therefore infer that dikes fed many of the eruptions. Dikes are also observed in places transforming to transgressive (ramping) sills. Estimates of the observable volume of dikes (maximum volume of 1.90 × 10 6 m 3 ) and sills (minimum volume of 8.47 × 10 5 m 3 ) in this study reveal that sills at Hopi Buttes make up at least 30 % of the shallow intruded volume (∼2.75 × 10 6 m 3 total) within 350 m of the paeosurface. We have also identified saucer-shaped sills, which are not traditionally associated with monogenetic volcanic fields. Our study demonstrates that shallow feeders in monogenetic fields can form geometrically complex networks, particularly those intruding poorly consolidated sedimentary rocks. We conclude that the Hopi Buttes eruptions were primarily fed by NW-SE-striking dikes. However, saucer-shaped sills also played an important role in modulating eruptions by transporting magma toward and away from eruptive conduits. Sill development could have been accompanied by surface uplifts on the order of decimeters. We infer that the characteristic feeder systems described here for the Hopi Buttes may underlie monogenetic fields elsewhere, particularly where magma intersects shallow, and often weak, sedimentary rocks. Results from this study support growing evidence of the important role of shallow sills in active monogenetic fields.

Arizona↗

USGS2016

Results of the eruptive column model inter-comparison study

This study compares and evaluates one-dimensional (1D) and three-dimensional (3D) numerical models of volcanic eruption columns in a set of different inter-comparison exercises. The exercises were designed as a blind test in which a set of common input parameters was given for two reference eruptions, representing a strong and a weak eruption column under different meteorological conditions. Comparing the results of the different models allows us to evaluate their capabilities and target areas for future improvement. Despite their different formulations, the 1D and 3D models provide reasonably consistent predictions of some of the key global descriptors of the volcanic plumes. Variability in plume height, estimated from the standard deviation of model predictions, is within ~ 20% for the weak plume and ~ 10% for the strong plume. Predictions of neutral buoyancy level are also in reasonably good agreement among the different models, with a standard deviation ranging from 9 to 19% (the latter for the weak plume in a windy atmosphere). Overall, these discrepancies are in the range of observational uncertainty of column height. However, there are important differences amongst models in terms of local properties along the plume axis, particularly for the strong plume. Our analysis suggests that the simplified treatment of entrainment in 1D models is adequate to resolve the general behaviour of the weak plume. However, it is inadequate to capture complex features of the strong plume, such as large vortices, partial column collapse, or gravitational fountaining that strongly enhance entrainment in the lower atmosphere. We conclude that there is a need to more accurately quantify entrainment rates, improve the representation of plume radius, and incorporate the effects of column instability in future versions of 1D volcanic plume models.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2016

Inter-comparison of three-dimensional models of volcanic plumes

We performed an inter-comparison study of three-dimensional models of volcanic plumes. A set of common volcanological input parameters and meteorological conditions were provided for two kinds of eruptions, representing a weak and a strong eruption column. From the different models, we compared the maximum plume height, neutral buoyancy level (where plume density equals that of the atmosphere), and level of maximum radial spreading of the umbrella cloud. We also compared the vertical profiles of eruption column properties, integrated across cross-sections of the plume (integral variables). Although the models use different numerical procedures and treatments of subgrid turbulence and particle dynamics, the inter-comparison shows qualitatively consistent results. In the weak plume case (mass eruption rate 1.5 × 10 6 kg s − 1 ), the vertical profiles of plume properties (e.g., vertical velocity, temperature) are similar among models, especially in the buoyant plume region. Variability among the simulated maximum heights is ~ 20%, whereas neutral buoyancy level and level of maximum radial spreading vary by ~ 10%. Time-averaging of the three-dimensional (3D) flow fields indicates an effective entrainment coefficient around 0.1 in the buoyant plume region, with much lower values in the jet region, which is consistent with findings of small-scale laboratory experiments. On the other hand, the strong plume case (mass eruption rate 1.5 × 10 9 kg s − 1 ) shows greater variability in the vertical plume profiles predicted by the different models. Our analysis suggests that the unstable flow dynamics in the strong plume enhances differences in the formulation and numerical solution of the models. This is especially evident in the overshooting top of the plume, which extends a significant portion (~ 1/8) of the maximum plume height. Nonetheless, overall variability in the spreading level and neutral buoyancy level is ~ 20%, whereas that of maximum height is ~ 10%. This inter-comparison study has highlighted the different capabilities of 3D volcanic plume models, and identified key features of weak and strong plumes, including the roles of jet stability, entrainment efficiency, and particle non-equilibrium, which deserve future investigation in field, laboratory, and numerical studies.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2015

Eruptive and environmental processes recorded by diatoms in volcanically-dispersed lake sediments from the Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand

Late Pleistocene diatomaceous sediment was widely dispersed along with volcanic ash (tephra) across and beyond New Zealand by the 25.4 ka Oruanui supereruption from Taupo volcano. We present a detailed analysis of the diatom populations in the Oruanui tephra and the newly discovered floras in two other eruptions from the same volcano: the 28.6 ka Okaia and 1.8 ka Taupo eruptions. For comparison, the diatoms were also examined in Late Pleistocene and Holocene lake sediments from the Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ). Our study demonstrates how these microfossils provide insights into the lake history of the TVZ since the Last Glacial Maximum. Morphometric analysis of Aulacoseira valve dimensions provides a useful quantitative tool to distinguish environmental and eruptive processes within and between individual tephras. The Oruanui and Okaia diatom species and valve dimensions are highly consistent with a shared volcanic source, paleolake and eruption style (involving large-scale magma-water interaction). They are distinct from lacustrine sediments sourced elsewhere in the TVZ. Correspondence analysis shows that small, intact samples of erupted lake sediment (i.e., lithic clasts in ignimbrite) contain heterogeneous diatom populations, reflecting local variability in species composition of the paleolake and its shallowly-buried sediments. Our analysis also shows a dramatic post-Oruanui supereruption decline in Cyclostephanos novaezelandiae, which likely reflects a combination of (1) reorganisation of the watershed in the aftermath of the eruption, and (2) overall climate warming following the Last Glacial Maximum. This decline is reflected in substantially lower proportions of C. novaezelandiae in the 1.8 ka Taupo eruption deposits, and even fewer in post-1.8 ka sediments from modern (Holocene) Lake Taupo. Our analysis highlights how the excellent preservation of siliceous microfossils in volcanic tephra may fingerprint the volcanic source region and retain a valuable record of volcanically-influenced environmental change.

Taupo Volcanic Zone↗

USGS2015

Hail formation triggers rapid ash aggregation in volcanic plumes

During explosive eruptions, airborne particles collide and stick together, accelerating the fallout of volcanic ash and climate-forcing aerosols. This aggregation process remains a major source of uncertainty both in ash dispersal forecasting and interpretation of eruptions from the geological record. Here we illuminate the mechanisms and timescales of particle aggregation from a well-characterized ‘wet’ eruption. The 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano in Alaska incorporated water from the surface (in this case, a glacier), which is a common occurrence during explosive volcanism worldwide. Observations from C-band weather radar, fall deposits, and numerical modeling demonstrate that volcanic hail formed rapidly in the eruption plume, leading to mixed-phase aggregation of ~95% of the fine ash and stripping much of the cloud out of the atmosphere within 30 minutes. Based on these findings, we propose a mechanism of hail-like aggregation that contributes to the anomalously rapid fallout of fine ash and the occurrence of concentrically-layered aggregates in volcanic deposits.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Modeling ash fall distribution from a Yellowstone supereruption

We used the volcanic ash transport and dispersion model Ash3d to estimate the distribution of ashfall that would result from a modern-day Plinian supereruption at Yellowstone volcano. The simulations required modifying Ash3d to consider growth of a continent-scale umbrella cloud and its interaction with ambient wind fields. We simulated eruptions lasting 3 days, 1 week, and 1 month, each producing 330 km 3 of volcanic ash, dense-rock equivalent (DRE). Results demonstrate that radial expansion of the umbrella cloud is capable of driving ash upwind (westward) and crosswind (N-S) in excess of 1500 km, producing more-or-less radially symmetric isopachs that are only secondarily modified by ambient wind. Deposit thicknesses are decimeters to meters in the northern Rocky Mountains, centimeters to decimeters in the northern Midwest, and millimeters to centimeters on the East, West, and Gulf Coasts. Umbrella cloud growth may explain the extremely widespread dispersal of the ∼640 ka and 2.1 Ma Yellowstone tephra deposits in the eastern Pacific, northeastern California, southern California, and South Texas.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗