Geology topics

Aldo V. Vecchia

Publications and source records attributed to Aldo V. Vecchia.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2014

Estimated monthly streamflows for selected locations on the Kabul and Logar Rivers, Aynak copper, cobalt, and chromium area of interest, Afghanistan, 1951-2010

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense Task Force for Business and Stability Operations, used the stochastic monthly water-balance model and existing climate data to estimate monthly streamflows for 1951–2010 for selected streamgaging stations located within the Aynak copper, cobalt, and chromium area of interest in Afghanistan. The model used physically based, nondeterministic methods to estimate the monthly volumetric water-balance components of a watershed. A comparison of estimated and recorded monthly streamflows for the streamgaging stations Kabul River at Maidan and Kabul River at Tangi-Saidan indicated that the stochastic water-balance model was able to provide satisfactory estimates of monthly streamflows for high-flow months and low-flow months even though withdrawals for irrigation likely occurred. A comparison of estimated and recorded monthly streamflows for the streamgaging stations Logar River at Shekhabad and Logar River at Sangi-Naweshta also indicated that the stochastic water-balance model was able to provide reasonable estimates of monthly streamflows for the high-flow months; however, for the upstream streamgaging station, the model overestimated monthly streamflows during periods when summer irrigation withdrawals likely occurred. Results from the stochastic water-balance model indicate that the model should be able to produce satisfactory estimates of monthly streamflows for locations along the Kabul and Logar Rivers. This information could be used by Afghanistan authorities to make decisions about surface-water resources for the Aynak copper, cobalt, and chromium area of interest.

Kabul River;Logar River↗

USGS2014

Water quality in Indiana: trends in concentrations of selected nutrients, metals, and ions in streams, 2000-10

Water quality in Indiana streams generally improved during the 2000–10 study period, based on trends in selected nutrients, metals, and ions. This study combined water-quality data from the Indiana Fixed Station Monitoring Program (FSMP) with streamflow data from nearby U.S. Geological Survey streamgages. A parametric time-series model, QWTREND, was used to develop streamflow-adjusted constituent concentrations, to adjust for seasonal variance and serial correlation, and to identify trends independent of streamflow-related variability. This study examined 7,345 water samples from 57 FSMP sites for 11 years. Concentration trends were analyzed for 12 constituents—the nutrients nitrate, organic nitrogen, and phosphorus; suspended solids; the metals copper, iron, lead, and zinc; the ions chloride, and sulfate together with hardness as a measure of the calcium carbonate ion; and dissolved solids. Nutrient concentrations in this study generally were too high relative to standards and criteria. The national recommended criteria for the three ecoregions in Indiana were exceeded by more than one-half of the nitrate and most of the phosphorus concentrations. Copper, lead, zinc, chloride, sulfate, and dissolved solids concentrations were in acceptable ranges relative to standards and criteria in more than 97 percent of samples. The two Lake Michigan Basin sites had the highest concentrations and were in a unique statistical group for 10 of the 12 constituents, with concentrations many times higher than the statewide median and higher than the medians of most other basins. The two Ohio River Basin sites had the lowest concentrations and were in a unique statistical group for 6 of the 12 constituents. Statistically significant trends were identified that included 167 downward trends and 83 upward trends. The Kankakee River Basin had the most significant upward trends while the most significant downward trends were in the Whitewater River Basin, the Lake Michigan Basin, and the Patoka River Basin. For most constituents, a majority of sites had significant downward trends. Two streams in the Lake Michigan Basin have shown substantial decreases in most constituents. The West Fork White River near Indianapolis, Indiana, showed increases in nitrate and phosphorus and the Kankakee River Basin showed increases in copper, zinc, chloride, sulfate, and hardness. Upward trends in nutrients were identified at a few sites, but most nutrient trends were downward. Upward trends in metals corresponded with relatively small concentration increases while downward trends involved considerably larger concentration changes. Downward trends in chloride, sulfate, and suspended solids were observed statewide, but upward trends in hardness were observed in the northern half of Indiana.

Indiana↗

USGS2013

Monitoring and understanding changes in heat waves, cold waves, floods, and droughts in the United States: State of knowledge

Weather and climate extremes have been varying and changing on many different time scales. In recent decades, heat waves have generally become more frequent across the United States, while cold waves have been decreasing. While this is in keeping with expectations in a warming climate, it turns out that decadal variations in the number of U.S. heat and cold waves do not correlate well with the observed U.S. warming during the last century. Annual peak flow data reveal that river flooding trends on the century scale do not show uniform changes across the country. While flood magnitudes in the Southwest have been decreasing, flood magnitudes in the Northeast and north-central United States have been increasing. Confounding the analysis of trends in river flooding is multiyear and even multidecadal variability likely caused by both large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and basin-scale “memory” in the form of soil moisture. Droughts also have long-term trends as well as multiyear and decadal variability. Instrumental data indicate that the Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the drought in the 1950s were the most significant twentieth-century droughts in the United States, while tree ring data indicate that the megadroughts over the twelfth century exceeded anything in the twentieth century in both spatial extent and duration. The state of knowledge of the factors that cause heat waves, cold waves, floods, and drought to change is fairly good with heat waves being the best understood.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗

USGS2013

seawaveQ: an R package providing a model and utilities for analyzing trends in chemical concentrations in streams with a seasonal wave (seawave) and adjustment for streamflow (Q) and other ancillary variables

The seawaveQ R package fits a parametric regression model (seawaveQ) to pesticide concentration data from streamwater samples to assess variability and trends. The model incorporates the strong seasonality and high degree of censoring common in pesticide data and users can incorporate numerous ancillary variables, such as streamflow anomalies. The model is fitted to pesticide data using maximum likelihood methods for censored data and is robust in terms of pesticide, stream location, and degree of censoring of the concentration data. This R package standardizes this methodology for trend analysis, documents the code, and provides help and tutorial information, as well as providing additional utility functions for plotting pesticide and other chemical concentration data.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2012

Eleven-year trend in acetanilide pesticide degradates in the Iowa River, Iowa

Trends in concentration and loads of acetochlor, alachlor, and metolachlor and their ethanasulfonic (ESA) and oxanilic (OXA) acid degradates were studied from 1996 through 2006 in the main stem of the Iowa River, Iowa and in the South Fork Iowa River, a small tributary near the headwaters of the Iowa River. Concentration trends were determined using the parametric regression model SEAWAVE-Q, which accounts for seasonal and flow-related variability. Daily estimated concentrations generated from the model were used with daily streamflow to calculate daily and yearly loads. Acetochlor, alachlor, metolachlor, and their ESA and OXA degradates were generally present in >50% of the samples collected from both sites throughout the study. Their concentrations generally decreased from 1996 through 2006, although the rate of decrease was slower after 2001. Concentrations of the ESA and OXA degradates decreased from 3 to about 23% yr -1 . The concentration trend was related to the decreasing use of these compounds during the study period. Decreasing concentrations and constant runoff resulted in an average reduction of 10 to >3000 kg per year of alachlor and metolachlor ESA and OXA degradates being transported out of the Iowa River watershed. Transport of acetochlor and metolachlor parent compounds and their degradates from the Iowa River watershed ranged from <1% to about 6% of the annual application. These trends were related to the decreasing use of these compounds during the study period, but the year-to-year variability cannot explain changes in loads based on herbicide use alone. The trends were also affected by the timing and amount of precipitation. As expected, increased amounts of water moving through the watershed moved a greater percentage of the applied herbicides, especially the relatively soluble degradates, from the soils into the rivers through surface runoff, shallow groundwater inflow, and subsurface drainage.

Iowa;Minnesota↗

USGS2012

waterData--An R package for retrieval, analysis, and anomaly calculation of daily hydrologic time series data, version 1.0

Hydrologic time series data and associated anomalies (multiple components of the original time series representing variability at longer-term and shorter-term time scales) are useful for modeling trends in hydrologic variables, such as streamflow, and for modeling water-quality constituents. An R package, called waterData, has been developed for importing daily hydrologic time series data from U.S. Geological Survey streamgages into the R programming environment. In addition to streamflow, data retrieval may include gage height and continuous physical property data, such as specific conductance, pH, water temperature, turbidity, and dissolved oxygen. The package allows for importing daily hydrologic data into R, plotting the data, fixing common data problems, summarizing the data, and the calculation and graphical presentation of anomalies.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2012

Evaluation of water-quality characteristics and sampling design for streams in North Dakota, 1970–2008

In response to the need to examine the large amount of historic water-quality data comprehensively across North Dakota and evaluate the efficiency of the State-wide sampling programs, a study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission and the North Dakota Department of Health to describe the water-quality data collected for the various programs and determine an efficient State-wide sampling design for monitoring future water-quality conditions. Although data collected for the North Dakota State Water Commission High-Low Sampling Program, the North Dakota Department of Health Ambient Water-Quality Network, and other projects and programs provide valuable information on the quality of water in streams in North Dakota, the objectives vary among the programs, some of the programs overlap spatially and temporally, and the various sampling designs may not be the most efficient or relevant to the objectives of the individual programs as they have changed through time. One objective of a State-wide sampling program was to evaluate ways to describe the spatial variability of water-quality conditions across the State in the most efficient manner. Weighted least-squares regression analysis was used to relate the average absolute difference between paired downstream and upstream concentrations, expressed as a percent of the average downstream concentration, to the average absolute difference in daily flow between the downstream and upstream pairs, expressed as a percent of the average downstream flow. The analysis showed that a reasonable spatial network would consist of including the most downstream sites in large basins first, followed by the next upstream site(s) that roughly bisect the downstream flows at the first sites, followed by the next upstream site(s) that roughly bisect flows for the second sites. Sampling sites to be included in a potential State-wide network were prioritized into 3 design levels: level 1 (highest priority), level 2 (second priority), and level 3 (third priority). Given the spatial distribution and priority designation (levels 1–3) of sites in the potential spatial network, the next consideration was to determine the appropriate temporal sampling frequency to use for monitoring future water-quality conditions. The time-series model used to detect concentration trends for this report also was used to evaluate sampling designs to monitor future water-quality trends. Sampling designs were evaluated with regard to their sensitivity to detect seasonal trends that occurred during three 4-month seasons—March through June, July through October, and November through February. For the 34 level-1 sites, samples would be collected for major ions, trace metals, nutrients, bacteria, and sediment eight times per year, with samples in January, April (2 samples),May, June, July, August, and October. For the 21 level-2 sites, samples would be collected for major ions, trace metals, and nutrients six times per year (January, April, May, June, August, and October), and for the 26 level-3 sites, samples would be collected for these constituents four times per year (April, June, August, and October).

North Dakota↗

USGS2011

USGS library for S-PLUS for Windows -- Release 4.0

Release 4.0 of the U.S. Geological Survey S-PLUS library supercedes release 2.1. It comprises functions, dialogs, and datasets used in the U.S. Geological Survey for the analysis of water-resources data. This version does not contain ESTREND, which was in version 2.1. See Release 2.1 for information and access to that version. This library requires Release 8.1 or later of S-PLUS for Windows. S-PLUS is a commercial statistical and graphical analysis software package produced by TIBCO corporation(http://www.tibco.com/). The USGS library is not supported by TIBCO or its technical support staff.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

Simulation of the effects of Devils Lake outlet alternatives on future lake levels and downstream water quality in the Sheyenne River and Red River of the North

Since 1992, Devils Lake in northeastern North Dakota has risen nearly 30 feet, destroying hundreds of homes, inundating thousands of acres of productive farmland, and costing more than $1 billion for road raises, levee construction, and other flood mitigation measures. In 2011, the lake level is expected to rise at least another 2 feet above the historical record set in 2010 (1,452.0 feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929), cresting less than 4 feet from the lake's natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River (1,458.0 feet). In an effort to slow the rising lake and reduce the chance of an uncontrolled spill, the State of North Dakota is considering options to expand a previously constructed outlet from the west end of Devils Lake or construct a second outlet from East Devils Lake. Future outlet discharges from Devils Lake, when combined with downstream receiving waters, need to be in compliance with applicable Clean Water Act requirements. This study was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota Department of Health Division of Water Quality, to evaluate the various outlet alternatives with respect to their effect on downstream water quality and their ability to control future lake levels. A Devils Lake stochastic simulation model developed in previous studies was modified and combined with a downstream stochastic routing model developed for this study to simulate future (2011–30) Devils Lake levels and water quality, and outlet discharges, flows, and water quality (specifically, dissolved sulfate and total dissolved solids concentrations) for key downstream locations. Outlet alternatives include: (1) a 250 cubic feet per second west-end outlet (the current outlet) combined with a 250 cubic feet per second east-end outlet (W250E250); (2) a 350 cubic feet per second west-end outlet combined with a 250 cubic feet per second east-end outlet (W350E250); and (3) a 250 cubic feet per second west-end outlet combined with a 350 cubic feet per second east-end outlet (W250E350). In addition to satisfying current (2011) flow and water-quality requirements for the upper Sheyenne River, each of the outlet options was simulated with a less restrictive downstream sulfate constraint (750 milligrams per liter) and a more restrictive downstream sulfate constraint (650 milligrams per liter) for the outflows from Baldhill Dam. Thus, there were a total of six outlet scenarios (three outlet alternatives, each with the less restrictive and more restrictive downstream sulfate constraint). In addition, a baseline simulation in which there were no outlet discharges was used for comparison with the outlet simulations. Simulation results indicate all six outlet scenarios substantially reduce, but do not eliminate, the chance of a spill. For the baseline simulation, the chance of a spill would be 0.6 percent this year (2011), about 14 percent by next year (2012), about 28 percent by 2015, and about 45 percent by 2030. The outlet scenarios reduce the chance of a spill to 0.2 percent this year, about 9 percent next year, 14 to 15 percent by 2015, and 17 to 19 percent by 2030. The chances of a spill are slightly less for the larger outlets (W350E250 and W250E350) compared with the smaller outlet (W250E250) and slightly greater for the more restrictive downstream sulfate constraint (650 milligrams per liter) compared with the less restrictive constraint (750 milligrams per liter). All of the outlet scenarios prevent most spills that would have occurred after 2015, but many of the spills that occur before 2015 are not prevented by any of the outlet scenarios. All of the outlet scenarios are effective for drawing the lake down in future years, but the more restrictive downstream constraint results in slower drawdown compared with the less restrictive constraint. For the baseline condition, the chance the lake would be above 1,450.0 feet is 99 percent in 2015 and 38 percent in 2030. For the outlet scenarios with the 750 milligrams per liter downstream constraint, the chance is 55 to 63 percent in 2015 and about 5 percent in 2030. For the outlet scenarios with the 650 milligrams per liter downstream constraint, the chance is 75 to 80 percent in 2015 and about 6 percent in 2030. The 90th percentiles of simulated monthly average sulfate and total dissolved solids concentrations for downstream sites were used as a measure of concentrations that may be expected to occur during relatively dry years when Devils Lake water could provide a substantial part of downstream flows. The percentiles were similar among the three outlet alternatives (W250E250, W350E250, and W250E350). However, the percentiles were sensitive to the downstream sulfate constraint. During periods of declining lake levels and relatively low downstream flows, the 650 milligrams per liter downstream sulfate constraint resulted in reduced outlet discharges and lower downstream concentrations compared with the 750 milligrams per liter constraint. For the 750 milligrams per liter constraint, the 90th percentile concentration for the Red River of the North at Halstad peaked at about 500–550 milligrams per liter of sulfate and 1,200–1,250 milligrams per liter of total dissolved solids during 2013–15 and declined to about 300 milligrams per liter of sulfate and 800 milligrams per liter of total dissolved solids during 2025. The 90th percentile concentration for the Red River of the North at Emerson peaked at about 450–500 milligrams per liter of sulfate and 1,150–1,200 milligrams per liter of total dissolved solids during 2013–15 and declined to about 200–250 milligrams per liter of sulfate and 750 milligrams per liter of total dissolved solids during 2025. For the 650 milligrams per liter constraint, the 90th percentile concentration for the Halstad site peaked at about 400 milligrams per liter of sulfate and 1,000 milligrams per liter of total dissolved solids during 2013–17 and declined to about 300 milligrams per liter of sulfate and 800 milligrams per liter of total dissolved solids during 2025. The 90th percentile concentration for the Emerson site peaked at about 350 milligrams per liter of sulfate and 950 milligrams per liter of total dissolved solids during 2013–17 and declined to about 275 milligrams per liter of sulfate and 750 milligrams per liter of total dissolved solids during 2025.

North Dakota↗

USGS2010

Trends in pesticide concentrations in urban streams in the United States, 1992-2008

Pesticide concentration trends in streams dominated by urban land use were assessed using data from 27 urban streams sampled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. The sites were divided into four regions, Northeast, South, Midwest, and West, to examine possible regional patterns. Three partially overlapping 9-year periods (1992-2000, 1996-2004, and 2000-2008) were examined for eight herbicides and one degradation product (simazine, prometon, atrazine, deethylatrazine, metolachlor, trifluralin, pendimethalin, tebuthiuron, and Dacthal), and five insecticides and two degradation products (chlorpyrifos, malathion, diazinon, fipronil, fipronil sulfide, desulfinylfipronil, and carbaryl). The data were analyzed for trends in concentration using a parametric regression model with seasonality, flow-related variability, and trend, called SEAWAVE-Q. The SEAWAVE-Q model also was used to generate estimated daily concentration percentiles for each analysis period to provide a summary of concentration magnitudes. For herbicides, the largest 90th percentiles of estimated concentrations for simazine were in the South, prometon at some sites in all of the regions, atrazine and deethylatrazine in the South and Midwest, metolachlor in the Midwest and a few sites in the South, pendimethalin at scattered sites in all of the regions, and tebuthiuron in the South and a few sites in the Midwest and West. For insecticides, the largest 90th percentiles of estimated concentrations for diazinon and carbaryl were distributed among various sites in all regions (especially during 1996-2004), and fipronil at isolated sites in all of the regions during 2000-2008. Trend analysis results for the herbicides indicated many significant trends, both upward and downward, with varying patterns depending on period, region, and herbicide. Overall, deethylatrazine showed the most consistent pattern of upward trends, especially in the Northeast (2000-2008), South (1996-2004 and 2000-2008), and Midwest (1996-2004 and 2000-2008). Other herbicides showed less consistent upward trends, including simazine in the South (1996-2004), prometon in the Midwest (2000-2008), and atrazine in the South (1996-2004). The most consistent downward trends were for simazine in the Northeast and Midwest (1996-2004), prometon in the Northeast and Midwest (1996-2004) and West (1996-2004 and 2000-2008), and tebuthiuron in the South (1996-2004 and 2000-2008) and West (2000-2008). Strong similarity existed between the trends for atrazine and deethylatrazine during 1996-2004. During 2000-2008, however, there were mixed upward and downward trends in atrazine and predominantly upward trends in deethylatrazine. Ten sites with a downward trend in atrazine were paired with an upward trend in deethylatrazine and for three of these sites (1 in the South and 2 in the Midwest) both opposing trends were significant. Opposing trends showing a decrease in atrazine and an increase in deethylatrazine may indicate that decreases in atrazine from surface runoff are being offset in some cases by increases in deethylatrazine from groundwater for the latter analysis period. Trend results for insecticides indicated widespread significant downward trends for chlorpyrifos (especially 1996-2004), diazinon (1996-2004 and 2000-2008), and malathion (especially 1996-2004); widespread significant upward trends for fipronil and its degradation products (2000-2008); and mostly nonsignificant trends for carbaryl (1996-2004 and 2000-2008). The downward trends for chlorpyrifos and diazinon were consistent with the regulatory phaseout of residential uses of these insecticides and the upward trends for fipronil and its degradation products were consistent with its introduction in 1996 and subsequent increasing use as a possible substitute for chlorpyrifos and diazinon. The downward trends in malathion may be caused by voluntary substitution of pyrethroids or fipronil for malathio

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2009

Trends in concentrations and use of agricultural herbicides for Corn Belt rivers, 1996-2006

Trends in the concentrations and agricultural use of four herbicides (atrazine, acetochlor, metolachlor, and alachlor) were evaluated for major rivers of the Corn Belt for two partially overlapping time periods: 1996-2002 and 2000-2006. Trends were analyzed for 11 sites on the mainstems and selected tributaries in the Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Missouri River Basins. Concentration trends were determined using a parametric regression model designed for analyzing seasonal variability, flow-related variability, and trends in pesticide concentrations(SEAWAVE-Q).TheSEAWAVE-Qmodel accounts for the effect of changing flow conditions in order to separate changes caused by hydrologic conditions from changes caused by other factors, such as pesticide use. Most of the trends in atrazine and acetochlor concentrations for both time periods were relatively small and nonsignificant, but metolachlor and alachlor were dominated by varying magnitudes of concentration downtrends. Overall, with trends expressed as a percent change per year, trends in herbicide concentrations were consistent with trends in agricultural use; 84 of 88 comparisons for different sites, herbicides, and time periods showed no significant difference between concentration trends and agricultural use trends. Results indicate that decreasing use appears to have been the primary cause for the concentration downtrends during 1996-2006 and that, while there is some evidence that nonuse management factors may have reduced concentrations in some rivers, reliably evaluating the influence of these factors on pesticides in large streams and rivers will require improved, basin-specific information on both management practices and use over time. ?? 2009 American Chemical Society.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2009

Trends in pesticide concentrations in corn-belt streams, 1996-2006

Trends in the concentrations of commonly occurring pesticides in the Corn Belt of the United States were assessed, and the performance and application of several statistical methods for trend analysis were evaluated. Trends in the concentrations of 11 pesticides with sufficient data for trend assessment were assessed at up to 31 stream sites for two time periods: 1996–2002 and 2000–2006. Pesticides included in the trend analyses were atrazine, acetochlor, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine, EPTC, simazine, metribuzin, prometon, chlorpyrifos, and diazinon. The statistical methods applied and compared were (1) a modified version of the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test (SEAKEN), (2) a modified version of the Regional Kendall test, (3) a parametric regression model with seasonal wave (SEAWAVE), and (4) a version of SEAWAVE with adjustment for streamflow (SEAWAVE-Q). The SEAKEN test is a statistical hypothesis test for detecting monotonic trends in seasonal time-series data such as pesticide concentrations at a particular site. Trends across a region, represented by multiple sites, were evaluated using the regional seasonal Kendall test, which computes a test for an overall trend within a region by computing a score for each season at each site and adding the scores to compute the total for the region. The SEAWAVE model is a parametric regression model specifically designed for analyzing seasonal variability and trends in pesticide concentrations. The SEAWAVE-Q model accounts for the effect of changing flow conditions in order to separate changes caused by hydrologic trends from changes caused by other factors, such as pesticide use. There was broad, general agreement between unadjusted trends (no adjustment for streamflow effects) identified by the SEAKEN and SEAWAVE methods, including the regional seasonal Kendall test. Only about 10 percent of the paired comparisons between SEAKEN and SEAWAVE indicated a difference in the direction of trend, and none of these had differences significant at the 10-percent significance level. This consistency of results supports the validity and robustness of all three approaches as trend analysis tools. The SEAWAVE method is favored, however, because it has less restrictive data requirements, enabling analysis for more site/pesticide combinations, and can incorporate adjustment for streamflow (SEAWAVE-Q) with substantially fewer measurements than the flow-adjustment procedure used with SEAKEN. Analysis of flow-adjusted trends is preferable to analysis of non-adjusted trends for evaluating potential effects of changes in pesticide use or management practices because flow-adjusted trends account for the influence of flow-related variability. Analysis of flow-adjusted trends by SEAWAVE-Q showed that all of the pesticides assessed, except simazine and acetochlor, were dominated by varying degrees of concentration downtrends in one or both analysis periods. Atrazine, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine, EPTC, and metribuzin—all major corn herbicides, as well as prometon and chlorpyrifos, showed more prevalent concentration downtrends during 1996–2002 compared to 2000–2006. Diazinon had no clear trends during 1996–2002, but had predominantly downward trends during 2000–2006. Acetochlor trends were mixed during 1996–2002 and slightly upward during 2000–2006, but most of the trends were not statistically significant. Simazine concentrations trended upward at most sites during both 1996–2002 and 2000–2006. Comparison of concentration trends to agricultural-use trends indicated similarity in direction and magnitude for acetochlor, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine, EPTC, and metribuzin. Concentration downtrends for atrazine, chlorpyrifos, and diazinon were steeper than agricultural-use downtrends at some sites, indicating the possibility that agricultural management practices may have increasingly reduced transport to streams (particularly atrazine) or, for chlorpyrifos and diazinon, that nonagricultural uses declined substantially. Concentration uptrends for simazine generally were steeper than agricultural-use uptrends, indicating the possibility that nonagricultural uses of this herbicide increased during the study period.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2008

Historical and hypothetical future sedimentation and water storage in Kajakai Reservoir, central Afghanistan

Sedimentation has reduced water storage in Kajakai Reservoir. If current sedimentation rates continue, hypothetical future reservoir water volumes at the spillway elevation of 1,033.5 meters could be reduced about 22 percent from 2006 to 2057. Even if the spillway elevation is raised to 1,045 meters, a severe drought could result in large multiyear irrigation-supply deficits in which reservoir water levels remain below 1,022 meters for more than 4 years. Hypothetical climate change and sedimentation could result in greater water-supply deficits. The chance of having sufficient water supplies in Kajakai Reservoir during the worst month is about 47 percent.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2008

Climate simulation and flood risk analysis for 2008-40 for Devils Lake, North Dakota

Devils Lake and Stump Lake in northeastern North Dakota receive surface runoff from a 3,810-square-mile drainage basin, and evaporation provides the only major water loss unless the lakes are above their natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River. In September 2007, flow from Devils Lake to Stump Lake had filled Stump Lake and the two lakes consisted of essentially one water body with an elevation of 1,447.1 feet, about 3 feet below the existing base flood elevation (1,450 feet) and about 12 feet below the natural outlet elevation to the Sheyenne River (1,459 feet). Devils Lake could continue to rise, causing extensive additional flood damages in the basin and, in the event of an uncontrolled natural spill, downstream in the Red River of the North Basin. This report describes the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, to evaluate future flood risk for Devils Lake and provide information for developing updated flood-insurance rate maps and planning flood-mitigation activities such as raising levees or roads. In about 1980, a large, abrupt, and highly significant increase in precipitation occurred in the Devils Lake Basin and elsewhere in the Northern Great Plains, and wetter-than-normal conditions have persisted through the present (2007). Although future precipitation is impossible to predict, paleoclimatic evidence and recent research on climate dynamics indicate the current wet conditions are not likely to end anytime soon. For example, there is about a 72-percent chance wet conditions will last at least 10 more years and about a 37-percent chance wet conditions will last at least 30 more years. A stochastic simulation model for Devils Lake and Stump Lake developed in a previous study was updated and used to generate 10,000 potential future realizations, or traces, of precipitation, evaporation, inflow, and lake levels given existing conditions on September 30, 2007, and randomly generated future duration of the current wet period. On the basis of the simulations, and assuming ice-free conditions and calm wind, the Devils Lake flood elevation for an annualized flood risk of 1 percent (analogous to a “100-year” riverine flood) was estimated to be 1,454.6 feet for a 10-year time horizon (2008–17). Therefore, without adjusting for wind or ice, a residence near Devils Lake at elevation 1,454.6 feet has the same chance of being flooded sometime during the next 10 years as a residence at the edge of the 100-year flood plain along a river. Adjusting for the effects of wind or ice, which will increase the flood elevations for many locations near the lakes, was not within the scope of this study.

North Dakota↗

USGS2007

Calculation of nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals for ground-water flow models

A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2007

Water-balance simulations of runoff and reservoir storage for the Upper Helmand watershed and Kajakai Reservoir, central Afghanistan

A study was performed to provide information on monthly historical and hypothetical future runoff for the Upper Helmand watershed and reservoir storage in Kajakai Reservoir that could be used by Afghanistan authorities to make economic and demographic decisions concerning reservoir design and operation, reservoir sedimentation, and development along the Helmand River. Estimated reservoir volume at the current spillway elevation of 1,033.5 meters decreased by about 365 million cubic meters from 1968 to 2006 because of sedimentation. Water-balance simulations indicated a good fit between modeled and recorded monthly runoff at the two gaging stations in the watershed for water years 1956-79 and indicated an excellent fit between modeled and recorded monthly changes in Kajakai Reservoir storage for water years 1956-79. Future simulations, which included low starting reservoir water levels and a spillway raised to an elevation of 1,045 meters, indicated that the reservoir is likely to fill within 2 years. Although Kajakai Reservoir is likely to fill quickly, multiyear deficits may still occur. If future downstream irrigation demand doubles but future precipitation, temperature, and reservoir sedimentation remain similar to historical conditions, the reservoir would have more than a 50-percent chance of being full during April or May of a typical year. Future simulations with a 10-percent reduction in precipitation indicated that supply deficits would occur more than 1 in 4 years, on average, during August, September, or October. The reservoir would be full during April or May fewer than 1 in 2 years, on average, and multiyear supply deficits could occur. Increased sedimentation had little effect on reservoir levels during April through July, but the frequency of deficits increased substantially during September and October.

Kajakai Reservoir, Upper Helmand watershed↗

USGS2006

Simulation of daily pesticide concentrations from watershed characteristics and monthly climatic data

A time-series model was developed to simulate daily pesticide concentrations for streams in the coterminous United States. The model was based on readily available information on pesticide use, climatic variability, and watershed charac-teristics and was used to simulate concentrations for four herbicides [atrazine, ethyldipropylthiocarbamate (EPTC), metolachlor, and trifluralin] and three insecticides (carbofuran, ethoprop, and fonofos) that represent a range of physical and chemical properties, application methods, national application amounts, and areas of use in the United States. The time-series model approximates the probability distributions, seasonal variability, and serial correlation characteristics in daily pesticide concentration data from a national network of monitoring stations. The probability distribution of concentrations for a particular pesticide and station was estimated using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) model. The WARP model, which was developed in previous studies to estimate the probability distribution, was based on selected nationally available watershed-characteristics data, such as pesticide use and soil characteristics. Normality transformations were used to ensure that the annual percentiles for the simulated concentrations agree closely with the percentiles estimated from the WARP model. Seasonal variability in the transformed concentrations was maintained by relating the transformed concentration to precipitation and temperature data from the United States Historical Climatology Network. The monthly precipitation and temperature values were estimated for the centroids of each watershed. Highly significant relations existed between the transformed concentrations, concurrent monthly precipitation, and concurrent and lagged monthly temperature. The relations were consistent among the different pesticides and indicated the transformed concentrations generally increased as precipitation increased but the rate of increase depended on a temperature-dependent growing-season effect. Residual variability of the transformed concentrations, after removal of the effects of precipitation and temperature, was partitioned into a signal (systematic variability that is related from one day to the next) and noise (random variability that is not related from one day to the next). Variograms were used to evaluate measurement error, seasonal variability, and serial correlation of the historical data. The variogram analysis indicated substantial noise resulted, at least in part, from measurement errors (the differences between the actual concen-trations and the laboratory concentrations). The variogram analysis also indicated the presence of a strongly correlated signal, with an exponentially decaying serial correlation function and a correlation time scale (the time required for the correlation to decay to e-1 equals 0.37) that ranged from about 18 to 66 days, depending on the pesticide type. Simulated daily pesticide concentrations from the time-series model indicated the simulated concentrations for the stations located in the northeastern quadrant of the United States where most of the monitoring stations are located generally were in good agreement with the data. The model neither consistently overestimated or underestimated concentrations for streams that are located in this quadrant and the magnitude and timing of high or low concentrations generally coincided reasonably well with the data. However, further data collection and model development may be necessary to determine whether the model should be used for areas for which few historical data are available.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2006

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for the Devils Lake Basin, North Dakota, January 1965 through September 2003

This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, the Devils Lake Basin Joint Water Resource Board, and the Red River Joint Water Resource District, to analyze historical water-quality trends in three dissolved major ions, three nutrients, and one dissolved trace element for eight stations in the Devils Lake Basin in North Dakota and to develop an efficient sampling design to monitor the future trends. A multiple-regression model was used to detect and remove streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. To separate the natural variability in concentration as a result of variability in streamflow from the variability in concentration as a result of other factors, the base-10 logarithm of daily streamflow was divided into four components-a 5-year streamflow anomaly, an annual streamflow anomaly, a seasonal streamflow anomaly, and a daily streamflow anomaly. The constituent concentrations then were adjusted for streamflow-related variability by removing the 5-year, annual, seasonal, and daily variability. Constituents used for the water-quality trend analysis were evaluated for a step trend to examine the effect of Channel A on water quality in the basin and a linear trend to detect gradual changes with time from January 1980 through September 2003. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved calcium concentrations during 1980-2003 for two stations were significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved sulfate concentrations for three stations were positive and similar in magnitude. Of the three upward trends, one was significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved chloride concentrations were positive but insignificant. The fitted linear trends for the upstream stations were small and insignificant, but three of the downward trends that occurred during 1980-2003 for the remaining stations were significant. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen concentrations during 1987-2003 for two stations were significant. However, concentrations during recent years appear to be lower than those for the 1970s and early 1980s but higher than those for the late 1980s and early 1990s. The fitted downward linear trend for dissolved ammonia concentrations for one station was significant. The fitted linear trends for total phosphorus concentrations for two stations were significant. Upward trends for total phosphorus concentrations occurred from the late 1980s to 2003 for most stations, but a small and insignificant downward trend occurred for one station. Continued monitoring will be needed to determine if the recent trend toward higher dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations continues in the future. For continued monitoring of water-quality trends in the upper Devils Lake Basin, an efficient sampling design consists of five major-ion, nutrient, and trace-element samples per year at three existing stream stations and at three existing lake stations. This sampling design requires the collection of 15 stream samples and 15 lake samples per year rather than 16 stream samples and 20 lake samples per year as in the 1992-2003 program. Thus, the design would result in a program that is less costly and more efficient than the 1992-2003 program but that still would provide the data needed to monitor water-quality trends in the Devils Lake Basin.

North Dakota↗