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Alan F. Chleborad

Publications and source records attributed to Alan F. Chleborad.

10 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2008

A prototype system for forecasting landslides in the Seattle, Washington, area

Empirical rainfall thresholds and related information form the basis of a prototype system for forecasting landslides in the Seattle area. The forecasts are tied to four alert levels, and a decision tree guides the use of thresholds to determine the appropriate level. From analysis of historical landslide data, we developed a formula for a cumulative rainfall threshold (CT), P 3 = 88.9 − 0.67 P 15 , defined by rainfall amounts in millimeters during consecutive 3 d (72 h) periods, P 3 , and the 15 d (360 h) period before P 3 , P 15 . The variable CT captures more than 90% of historical events of three or more landslides in 1 d and 3 d periods recorded from 1978 to 2003. However, the low probability of landslide occurrence on a day when the CT is exceeded at one or more rain gauges (8.4%) justifies a low-level of alert for possible landslide occurrence, but it does trigger more vigilant monitoring of rainfall and soil wetness. Exceedance of a rainfall intensity-duration threshold I = 82.73 D −1.13 , for intensity, I (mm/hr), and duration, D (hr), corresponds to a higher probability of landslide occurrence (30%) and forms the basis for issuing warnings of impending, widespread occurrence of landslides. Information about the area of exceedance and soil wetness can be used to increase the certainty of landslide forecasts (probabilities as great as 71%). Automated analysis of real-time rainfall and subsurface water data and digital quantitative precipitation forecasts are needed to fully implement a warning system based on the two thresholds.

Washington↗
USGS2006

Rainfall thresholds for forecasting landslides in the Seattle, Washington, area — Exceedance and probability

Empirical rainfall thresholds and related information form a basis for forecasting landslides in the Seattle area. A formula for a cumulative rainfall threshold (CT), P 3 =3.5–0.67 P 15 , defined by rainfall amounts (in inches) during the last 3 days (72 hours), P 3 , and the previous 15 days (360 hours), P 15 , was developed from analysis of historical data for 91 landslides that occurred as part of 3-day events of three or more landslides between 1933 and 1997. Comparison with historical records for 577 landslides (including some used in developing the CT) indicates that the CT captures more than 90 percent of historical landslide events of three or more landslides in 1-day and 3-day periods that were recorded from 1978 to 2003. However, the probability of landslide occurrence on a day when the CT is exceeded at any single rain gage (8.4 percent) is low, and additional criteria are needed to confidently forecast landslide occurrence. Exceedance of a rainfall intensity-duration threshold I =3.257 D –1.13 , for intensity, I , (inch per hour) and duration, D , (hours), corresponds to a higher probability of landslide occurrence (42 percent at any 3 rain gages or 65 percent at any 10 rain gages), but it predicts fewer landslides. Both thresholds must be used in tandem to forecast landslide occurrence in Seattle.

Washington↗
USGS2000

Preliminary method for anticipating the occurrence of precipitation-induced landslides in Seattle, Washington

Analysis of precipitation data associated with historical landslide events in Seattle has resulted in the identification of precipitation thresholds for the initiation of landslides. Also, an air-temperature index for multiple landslide events is identified, and in conjunction with the precipitation thresholds, is used to develop a method for anticipating the occurrence of landslides during the December-March wet season. The precipitation thresholds are based on 3-day cumulative precipitation that occurred immediately prior to landslide events and antecedent 15-day precipitation that occurred prior to the 3-day amounts. The data indicate that 15-day cumulative precipitation influences the amount of subsequent 3-day precipitation required to initiate landslides. Results of the analysis also indicate that air-temperature data can be used to help identify times when conditions are conducive for the initiation of landslides. It is shown that a high percentage of precipitation-related landslides occurred on days when the daily maximum air temperature was between 46? and 56? F (9? and 13? C) and that nearly all of the slides occurred on days when the daily maximum air temperature was above 43? F (6? C).

Open-File Report↗
USGS1998

Landslides triggered by the winter 1996-97 storms in the Puget Lowland, Washington

Snowmelt and rainfall events triggered many landslides and debris flows in the Seattle, Washington, area during late December 1996 and January and March 1997. Landslides caused the deaths of at least four people, millions of dollars in damage to public and private property, lost revenues, traffic diversions, and other direct and indirect losses. Although shallow slides and debris flows were the most common slope failures, many deep-seated slides also occurred. Comparing maps that show distribution of historic landslides with reports of landslides compiled by city and county governments for the winter of 1996-97 and our field reconnaissance of recent landslide deposits and scars indicates that many bluffs and steep hillsides are sites of recurring failures. Investigation of the 1996-97 landslides indicates that houses and other structures built downslope from steep bluffs are in particular danger of impact by debris flows, while those on the benches, slopes, or rim of bluffs are subject to severe damage by deep slides.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1997

Temperature, snowmelt, and the onset of spring season landslides in the central Rocky Mountains

Snow meltwater (snowmelt) that seeps into the subsurface is a major factor contributing to the development of landslides during the spring in mountainous areas of the Rocky Mountain region. An examination of historical temperature data in relation to spring season landslide occurrences reveals an association between the landslide events and intervals of rising temperatures that accelerate the production of snow meltwater. Historical climatic data recorded at local weather stations located near the landslide sites are used to show the association and to identify a temperature threshold that may be useful for forecasting the onset of spring season landslides. Historical daily temperature maximums and minimums for unmonitored landslide sites are estimated by applying an elevation correction factor to historical temperature data from nearby weather stations. The proposed temperature threshold (a 6-day moving average of daily maximum temperature of 58? F) is defined by the number and temporal distribution of snowmelt related landslide events. The results of the study suggest that real-time temperature data recorded at weather stations throughout the Rocky Mountain region is potentially a valuable source of information that may be useful for forecasting the onset of spring season landslides.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1982

Preliminary geotechnical and geophysical logs from drill hole 2C-80 in the Capps coal field, Cook Inlet region, Alaska

The drilling and logging information provided in this report was collected during September 1980 as part of the Energy Lands program of the U.S. Geological Survey. Drill hole 2C-80 is located in the Capps Coal Field, approximately 100 km (62 mi) west of Anchorage, Alaska (fig. 1). The drilling was undertaken to obtain information on the geotechnical characteristics of a part of the coal-bearing Tyonek Formation and overlying surficial deposits. The preliminary results of a previous drill hole (1C-79), located 1.3 km (0.8 mi) northeast of drill hole 2C-80, were reported by Chleborad and others (1980). The Tyonek Formation is early Oligocene to middle Miocene in age (Wolfe and Tanai, 1980). At the drill site it is overlain by a thin colluvial deposit of Quaternary age. The drilling and continuous core sampling penetrated 19.5 m (63.9 ft) of overburden, a major coal bed (Waterfall bed), and approximately 29 m (95.1 ft) of underlying material, to a total depth of 61 m (200 ft). Drill hole 2C-80 stratigraphically overlaps drill hole 1C-79 and continues down section approximately 33 m (108 ft). A proposed open pit coal-mining plan (Placer Amex, Inc., 1977, status report of December 1977) outlines a sequential mining and reclamation scheme for five areas in the Capps Coal Field. Figure 2 shows the location of drill holes 2C-80 and 1C-79 with respect to the proposed mining areas as well as selected surface features. A general description of the geology and natural hazards of the region are given by Schmoll and others (1981). The generalized lithology interpreted from core obtained from drilling and supplemented by outcrop mapping accomplished during the 1979 and 1980 field seasons is presented in figure 3. A more detailed lithologic log is presented as part of the geotechnical log. The geotechnical and geophysical logs presented herein (pls. 1 and 2) provide basic physical-property and engineering data useful in predicting the response of geologic materials to proposed large-scale coal mining and related development, and in identifying and assessing potential geologic hazards.

Alaska↗
USGS1980

Preliminary field geotechnical and geophysical logs from a drill hole in the Capps coal field, Cook Inlet region, Alaska

The drilling and logging activity described in this report was undertaken in August 1979, as part of the Energy Lands program of the U.S. Geological Survey. The general objectives of the project, of which this work is a part, are to provide an understanding of the nature, location, and extent of the engineering and environmental concerns in potential coal-development areas of the Cook Inlet region, Alaska. The geotechnical and geophysical logs presented in this report provide some of the basic physical-property and engineering data needed to evaluate geologic hazards, and to predict the response of geologic materials to large-scale coal mining and related development in the Capps coal field of the Beluga coal area. Specifically, the information may be used to help determine such things as natural- and cut-slope stability, spoil-pile stability, ground response to seismic activity, blasting effects, excavatability, bulking characteristics, ground-water conditions, and erosion potential.

Alaska↗