Geology topics

Adrian Jordaan

Publications and source records attributed to Adrian Jordaan.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Quality assessment of past spawning mark estimations from a long-term survey in the Connecticut River watershed

The calcified structures of fishes provide insight into their periodic growth rates and can be combined with other biological variables to identify metrics such as size or age at maturity and mortality rates. Collecting this information on growth and life history can help evaluate the success of conservation efforts and inform future management decisions for a species in need. However, before these life history data can be applied to larger stock assessments that direct management decisions, confidence in the validity of the data needs to be reported through metrics of accuracy and precision. For this report, we assessed the bias and precision of paired reader estimations of spawning marks on scales of Blueback herring (Alosa aestivalis) collected in the U.S. Fish & Wildlife (USFWS) Annual Adult River Herring Stock Assessment for the lower Connecticut River basin. The paired reads on scales from a total of 8,698 fish over the ten years of the long term monitoring program were evaluated for the annual presence of systematic bias and precision using a combination of qualitative (i.e., frequency tables) and quantitative (i.e., Evan’s and Hoenig’s Test of Symmetry, and Coefficient of Variation (CV) calculations) analyses. While seven out of the ten survey years had systematic bias detected by the tests of symmetry, only three years (2013, 2016, 2018) had imprecision values >10% CV threshold. Data were further categorized into specific age classes within survey years to increase our resolution on where bias and imprecision was most prevalent. While the ability for accurate bias detection was limited by sufficient sample sizes (>25 fish), average imprecision values increased with age, and median age classes (4 through 6) commonly had bias detected. However, the removal of insufficient age classes prior to calculating average annual CV did not significantly change the initial average. Lastly, 2023, which was the first year to implement a standardized training procedure prior to production estimating, had the highest precision for both the annual average and specific age classes compared to all prior survey years. This standardized training procedure will continue to be used by USFWS for the lower Connecticut River tributaries, and can be modified for other river systems. Overall, this report’s results highlight the importance of assessing precision and encourage the standardization of spawning mark identification quality control and assurance for future studies. With more quality assessments and baseline information on precision and bias, there can be more beneficial discussion on defining thresholds and how to implement spawning history variability into catch curve analyses.

Connecticut, Massachusetts↗

USGS2024

River herring influence perch morphology, physiology, and life history

Anadromous fishes play important roles in nutrient dynamics for freshwater ecosystems; however, the trophic pathways have been less documented for iteroparous species like river herring ( Alosa pseudoharengus and A. aestivalis ) compared to semelparous species like Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.). Given recent increases in restoration activities to improve connectivity, an understanding of how anadromous river herring influence the morphology, physiology, and life history of predatory fishes can help predict restoration responses. We aimed to quantify the trophic influence of juvenile anadromous river herring on predatory white perch ( Morone americana ) and yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) using a combination of stable isotopes, growth rates, and condition indices. We sampled six lakes in coastal Massachusetts—three lakes with anadromous river herring and three similar lakes without river herring. Bayesian mixing models of δ 13 C and δ 15 N indicated white perch consumed juvenile river herring in higher proportions (69–75%) compared to co-occurring prey fishes (11–16%). Lakes with juvenile river herring contained perch with significantly higher condition values, higher immature growth rates (age 1 and 2), lower mature growth rates (> age 3), significantly smaller mature lengths, and lower mortality rates compared to perch in lakes without river herring. These divergent life history traits of perch in response to consumption of juvenile river herring are consistent with observations in other predatory fishes. Direct links between river herring and predator condition, growth, and life history trajectories suggest broad influences on ecosystem structure across trophic levels through physiological, morphometric, and life history modifications.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2024

Population density and zooplankton biomass influence anadromous juvenile river herring growth in freshwater lakes

Anadromous river herring populations, collectively alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) and blueback herring ( Alosa aestivalis ), have experienced a multi-century decline in abundance and distribution. These declines have been attributed in part to anthropogenic threats in freshwater ecosystems (e.g., habitat fragmentation, overharvest, water pollution, watershed development). An understanding of variability in juvenile productivity and growth is critical to developing restoration approaches. We characterized variability in juvenile river herring growth among 11 freshwater lakes in the northeastern USA. We used age estimates from otoliths and length measurements to calculate growth rates of juvenile river herring ( n = 1452). We tested the effects of juvenile river herring densities, zooplankton (biomass and size), habitat area (based on thermocline depth), and water quality (temperature, nutrients, chlorophyll a ) on juvenile growth. Mean monthly growth rates ranged from 0.56 to 1.41 mm/d and typically increased throughout the summer. Increased juvenile growth was best predicted by lower juvenile density ( β = − 0.104, P < 0.001) and higher zooplankton biomass ( β = 0.032, P < 0.05). Combined with information about juvenile densities and mortality, these results broaden the understanding of anadromous juvenile river herring productivity, provide information that can contribute to refining stock assessment and life cycle models, and help to better understand the potential impacts of habitat conservation and restoration decisions.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

USGS2023

Effect of straying, reproductive strategies, and ocean distribution on the structure of American shad populations

The use of species distribution models has proliferated, providing insights for sustainable management of migratory species in a globally changing environment. However, many of these models are based on statistical relationships developed from historical conditions that may not perform well under changing or even analogous conditions caused by climate change. In this paper, we used a mechanistic species distribution model called GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamics for Diadromous Fish Distribution) to examine the integrated dynamics of American shad ( Alosa sapidissima ) populations across their native range along the Eastern U.S. coast, where the species demonstrates latitudinal variations in life histories and reproductive strategies. The initial design of the model was adapted to incorporate region-specific parameterization to fit the species ecology. Then, a sensitivity analysis was performed to test the influences of uncertain processes regarding American shad distribution at sea, straying and reproduction on key characteristics of the species distribution. The sensitivity analysis showed the influence of the Allee effect (i.e., “depensatory” process) and the homing rate (i.e., fidelity to the breeding sites) on the probability of presence and abundances among catchments and metapopulations estimated by the model. Contrary to the homing rate, the distance of straying did not change the estimated number of metapopulations or abundances. Homing strength, however, was quite influential. The integration of complex migration patterns during the marine phase (i.e., wintering and summering offshore areas) provided more likely estimates of the species' overall distribution. Overall, our study illustrated the utility of incorporating factors governing the large-scale distribution of migratory species to improve local management.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2023

Environmental factors influencing detection efficiency of an acoustic telemetry array and consequences for data interpretation

Background Acoustic telemetry is a commonly used technology to monitor animal occupancy and infer movement in aquatic environments. The information that acoustic telemetry provides is vital for spatial planning and management decisions concerning aquatic and coastal environments by characterizing behaviors and habitats such as spawning aggregations, migrations, corridors, and nurseries, among others. However, performance of acoustic telemetry equipment and resulting detection ranges and efficiencies can vary as a function of environmental conditions, leading to potentially biased interpretations of telemetry data. Here, we characterize variation in detection performance using an acoustic telemetry receiver array deployed in Wellfleet Harbor, Massachusetts, USA from 2015 to 2017. The array was designed to study benthic invertebrate movements and provided an in situ opportunity to identify factors driving variation in detection probability. Results The near-shore location proximate to environmental monitoring allowed for a detailed examination of factors influencing detection efficiency in a range-testing experiment. Detection ranges varied from < 50 to 1,500 m and efficiencies varied from 0 to 100% within those detection ranges. Detection efficiency was affected by distance, wind speed and direction, wave height and direction, water temperature, water depth, and water quality. Conclusions Performance of acoustic telemetry systems is strongly contingent on environmental conditions. Our study found that wind, waves, water temperature, water quality, and depth all affected performance to an extent that could seriously compromise a study if these effects were not taken into consideration. Other unmeasured factors may also be important, depending on the characteristics of each site. This information can help guide future telemetry study designs by helping researchers anticipate the density of receivers required to achieve study objectives. Researchers can further refine and document the reliability of their data by incorporating continuously deployed range-testing tags and prior knowledge on varying detection efficiency into movement and occupancy models.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2023

Effects of freshwater residence time on reproductive success in anadromous alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus): climate change implications

Earlier spring warming and anadromous fish migrations prompted by climate change are linked to shorter freshwater residency. Impacts of phenological change on anadromous fish populations are poorly understood with limited studies focused on iteroparous non-salmonids. We assessed freshwater residence time and reproductive success in an iteroparous clupeid, alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) using a pedigree analysis and otolith-based spawning dates from captured juveniles. The primary objectives were to (1) estimate adult spawning duration in a freshwater pond (freshwater residence time) and (2) evaluate adult freshwater residence time, arrival date, length, sex, and reproductive success across 2 years in one system. Estimated freshwater residence times varied widely (1–64 days), and longer residence times were associated with earlier arrival dates, higher reproductive success, and more mating events. Longer freshwater residence times may allow alewife to spawn with more mates, produce more gametes, and experience a range of spawning and nursery conditions. Plasticity in alewife freshwater residence time could support earlier and shorter migration periods but may result in lower reproductive output if adults spend less time in freshwater ponds.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2022

Decadal-scale phenology and seasonal climate drivers of migratory baleen whales in a rapidly warming marine ecosystem

Species' response to rapid climate change can be measured through shifts in timing of recurring biological events, known as phenology. The Gulf of Maine is one of the most rapidly warming regions of the ocean, and thus an ideal system to study phenological and biological responses to climate change. A better understanding of climate-induced changes in phenology is needed to effectively and adaptively manage human-wildlife conflicts. Using data from a 20+ year marine mammal observation program, we tested the hypothesis that the phenology of large whale habitat use in Cape Cod Bay has changed and is related to regional-scale shifts in the thermal onset of spring. We used a multi-season occupancy model to measure phenological shifts and evaluate trends in the date of peak habitat use for North Atlantic right ( Eubalaena glacialis ), humpback ( Megaptera novaeangliae ), and fin ( Balaenoptera physalus ) whales. The date of peak habitat use shifted by +18.1 days (0.90 days/year) for right whales and +19.1 days (0.96 days/year) for humpback whales. We then evaluated interannual variability in peak habitat use relative to thermal spring transition dates (STD), and hypothesized that right whales, as planktivorous specialist feeders, would exhibit a stronger response to thermal phenology than fin and humpback whales, which are more generalist piscivorous feeders. There was a significant negative effect of western region STD on right whale habitat use, and a significant positive effect of eastern region STD on fin whale habitat use indicating differential responses to spatial seasonal conditions. Protections for threatened and endangered whales have been designed to align with expected phenology of habitat use. Our results show that whales are becoming mismatched with static seasonal management measures through shifts in their timing of habitat use, and they suggest that effective management strategies may need to alter protections as species adapt to climate change.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2022

Identification of supraoptimal temperatures in juvenile blueback herring (Alosa aestivalis) using survival, growth rate and scaled energy reserves

For young fishes, growth of somatic tissues and energy reserves are critical steps for survival and progressing to subsequent life stages. When thermal regimes become supraoptimal, routine metabolic rates increase and leave less energy for young fish to maintain fitness-based activities and, in the case of anadromous fishes, less energy to prepare for emigration to coastal habitats. Thus, understanding how energy allocation strategies are affected by thermal regimes in young anadromous fish will help to inform climate-ready management of vulnerable species and their habitat. Blueback herring ( Alosa aestivalis ) are an anadromous fish species that remain at historically low population levels and are undergoing southern edge-range contraction, possibly due to climate change. We examined the effects of temperature (21°C, 24°C, 27°C, 30°C, 33°C) on survival, growth rate and energy reserves of juveniles collected from the mid-geographic range of the species. We identified a strong negative relationship between temperature and growth rate, resulting in smaller juveniles at high temperatures. We observed reduced survival at both 21°C and 33°C, increased fat and lean mass-at-length at high temperatures, but no difference in energy density. Juveniles were both smaller and contained greater scaled energy reserves at higher temperatures, indicating growth in length is more sensitive to temperature than growth of energy reserves. Currently, mid-geographic range juvenile blueback herring populations may be well suited for local thermal regimes, but continued warming could decrease survival and growth rates. Blueback herring populations may benefit from mitigation actions that maximize juvenile energy resources by increasing the availability of cold refugia and food-rich habitats, as well as reducing other stressors such as hypoxic zones.

Conservation Physiology↗

USGS2022

Phenological variation in spring migration timing of adult alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) in coastal Massachusetts

The timing of biological events in plants and animals, such as migration and reproduction, is shifting due to climate change. Anadromous fishes are particularly susceptible to these shifts as they are subject to strong seasonal cycles when transitioning between marine and freshwater habitats to spawn. We used linear models to determine the extent of phenological shifts in adult Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus as they migrated from ocean to freshwater environments during spring to spawn at 12 sites along the northeastern USA. We also evaluated broadscale oceanic and atmospheric drivers that trigger their movements from offshore to inland habitats, including sea surface temperature, North Atlantic Oscillation index, and Gulf Stream index. Run timing metrics of initiation, median (an indicator of peak run timing), end, and duration were found to vary among sites. Although most sites showed negligible shifts towards earlier timing, statistically significant changes were detected in three systems. Overall, winter sea surface temperature, spring and fall transition dates, and annual run size were the strongest predictors of run initiation and median dates, while a combination of within-season and seasonal-lag effects influenced run end and duration timing. Disparate results observed across the 12 spawning runs suggest that regional environmental processes were not consistent drivers of phenology and local environmental and ecological conditions may be more important. Additional years of data to extend time series and monitoring of Alewife timing and movements in nearshore habitats may provide important information about staging behaviors just before adults transition between ocean and freshwater habitats.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2022

Interspecific and local variation in Tern chick diets across nesting colonies in the Gulf of Maine

The Gulf of Maine, USA is home to four colonial co-nesting tern species: Least Tern ( Sternula antillarum ), Common Tern ( Sterna hirundo ), Arctic Tern ( Sterna paradisaea ), and the federally endangered Roseate Tern ( Sterna dougallii ). Over three decades of visual observations of chick provisioning were compiled for a comparative dietary study in the region, including the first detailed descriptions of Least and Roseate Tern chick diets. Three prey groups comprised the majority of chick diets among tern species between 1986–2017: hake ( Urophycis spp. or Enchelyopus cimbrius ) 28–37% frequency of occurrence (FO), sand lance ( Ammodytes americanus or A. dubius ) 8–22% FO, and herring ( Clupea spp . or Alosa spp.) 3–30% FO. Dietary contributions varied across species and islands. At two inshore colonies, Common Tern diets contained higher amounts of sand lance (30–42% FO), while offshore islands contained lesser amounts (5–9% FO). Overall dietary diversity (H′) was similar between Common (H′ = 1.57) and Arctic Terns (H′ = 1.74) and notably lower in Roseate (H′ = 1.24) and Least Terns (H′ = 1.37), whose diets were primarily piscivorous. The degree of dietary plasticity and general feeding ecology provided by baseline dietary information can inform holistic assessments of risk to ongoing and future disturbances from fishing and climate change.

Maine↗

USGS2021

Direct and size-mediated effects of temperature and ration-dependent growth rates on energy reserves in juvenile anadromous alewives (Alosa pseudoharengus)

Growth rate and energy reserves are important determinants of fitness and are governed by endogenous and exogenous factors. Thus, examining the influence of individual and multiple stressors on growth and energy reserves can help estimate population health under current and future conditions. In young anadromous fishes, freshwater habitat quality determines physiological state and fitness of juveniles emigrating to marine habitats. We tested how temperature and food availability affect survival, growth, and energy reserves in juvenile anadromous alewives ( Alosa pseudoharengus ), a forage fish distributed along the eastern North American continent. Field-collected juvenile anadromous A. pseudoharengus were exposed for 21 days to one of two temperatures (21°C and 25°C) and one of two levels of food rations (1% or 2% tank biomass daily) and compared for differences in final size, fat mass-at-length, lean mass-at-length, and energy density. Increased temperature and reduced ration both led to lower growth rates and the effect of reduced ration was greater at higher temperature. Fat mass-at-length decreased with dry mass and energy density increased with total length, suggesting size-based endogenous influences on energy reserves. Lower ration also directly decreased fat mass-at-length, lean mass-at-length and energy density. Given the fitness implications of size and energy reserves, temperature and food availability should be considered important indicators of nursery habitat quality and incorporated in A. pseudoharengus life history models to improve forecasting of population health under climate change.

Journal of Fish Biology↗

USGS2021

Daily patterns of river herring (Alosa spp.) spawning migrations: Environmental drivers and variation among coastal streams in Massachusetts

The timing of life history events in many plants and animals depends on the seasonal fluctuations of specific environmental conditions. Climate change is altering environmental regimes and disrupting natural cycles and patterns across communities. Anadromous fishes that migrate between marine and freshwater habitats to spawn are particularly sensitive to shifting environmental conditions and thus are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. However, for many anadromous fish species the specific environmental mechanisms driving migration and spawning patterns are not well understood. In this study, we investigated the upstream spawning migrations of river herring Alosa spp. in 12 coastal Massachusetts streams. By analyzing long-term data sets (8–28 years) of daily fish counts, we determined the local influence of environmental factors on daily migration patterns and compared seasonal run dynamics and environmental regimes among streams. Our results suggest that water temperature was the most consistent predictor of both daily river herring presence–absence and abundance during migration. We found inconsistent effects of streamflow and lunar phase, likely due to the anthropogenic manipulation of flow and connectivity in different systems. Geographic patterns in run dynamics and thermal regimes suggest that the more northerly runs in this region are relatively vulnerable to climate change due to migration occurring later in the spring season, at warmer water temperatures that approach thermal maxima, and during a narrower temporal window compared to southern runs. The phenology of river herring and their reliance on seasonal temperature patterns indicate that populations of these species may benefit from management practices that reduce within-stream anthropogenic water temperature manipulations and maintain coolwater thermal refugia.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2021

A novel framework to predict relative habitat selection in aquatic systems: Applying machine learning and resource selection functions to acoustic telemetry data from multiple shark species

Resource selection functions (RSFs) have been widely applied to animal tracking data to examine relative habitat selection and to help guide management and conservation strategies. While readily used in terrestrial ecology, RSFs have yet to be extensively used within marine systems. As acoustic telemetry continues to be a pervasive approach within marine environments, incorporation of RSFs can provide new insights to help prioritize habitat protection and restoration to meet conservation goals. To overcome statistical hurdles and achieve high prediction accuracy, machine learning algorithms could be paired with RSFs to predict relative habitat selection for a species within and even outside the monitoring range of acoustic receiver arrays, making this a valuable tool for marine ecologists and resource managers. Here, we apply RSFs using machine learning to an acoustic telemetry dataset of four shark species to explore and predict species-specific habitat selection within a marine protected area. In addition, we also apply this RSF-machine learning approach to investigate predator-prey relationships by comparing and averaging tiger shark relative selection values with the relative selection values derived for eight potential prey-species. We provide methodological considerations along with a framework and flexible approach to apply RSFs with machine learning algorithms to acoustic telemetry data and suggest marine ecologists and resource managers consider adopting such tools to help guide both conservation and management strategies.

Buck Island Reef National Monument, St Croix↗

USGS2021

Feeling the squeeze: Adult run size and habitat availability limit juvenile river herring densities in lakes

Maximum densities of juvenile river herring (Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus and Blueback Herring A. aestivalis ) vary among freshwater lakes, likely due to densities of adult spawners. Differences in habitat availability and lake water quality may also contribute to variation in juvenile river herring productivity between populations, yet these relationships have not been tested across a large geographic scope. In this study we investigated relationships between juvenile river herring densities and (1) spawning adult river herring densities, (2) lake habitat availability, and (3) lake water quality in 29 freshwater lakes in the northeastern USA. Purse seines were used at night to sample juvenile river herring monthly in June–August 2014 and 2015, with concurrent collection of lake-specific physical (e.g., lake surface area, mean depth, depth to thermocline), chemical (e.g., nitrogen, phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon [DOC]), and biological (chlorophyll a , adult spawning density) data. Spawning adult density (number of adults per surface area of lake) explained 66.6% of the variation in juvenile densities using a generalized additive model. Juvenile densities increased with increasing adult density, peaking at roughly 1,000 adults/ha, and then declined at higher adult densities, suggesting a limit to carrying capacity in juvenile production. Linear mixed-effects models revealed that differences in water quality and habitat across lakes explained additional variation in juvenile densities. Specifically, DOC was negatively related to juvenile densities, suggesting that DOC limits the amount of suitable, well-oxygenated epilimnion habitat available to juvenile river herring in late summer. Our results can be used to help understand expected juvenile production based on adult density within a lake, to inform expectations about juvenile growth and survival, and to understand the mechanisms for how changes in habitat availability and water quality affect river herring populations.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

USGS2020

How and why is the timing and occurrence of seasonal migrants in the Gulf of Maine changing due to climate?

Plants and animals undergo certain recurring life-cycle events, such as migrations between summer and winter habitats or the annual blooming of plants. Known as phenology, the timing of these events is very sensitive to changes in climate (and changes in one species’ phenology can impact entire food webs and ecosystems). Shifts in phenology have been described as a “fingerprint” of the temporal and spatial responses of wildlife to climate change impacts. Thus, phenology provides one of the strongest indicators of the adaptive capacity of organisms (or the ability of organisms to cope with future environmental conditions). In this study, researchers are exploring how the timing and occurrence of a number of highly migratory marine animals is changing due to a series of climatic and ecological shifts. First, using existing long-term historical data series, they will determine the direction and magnitude of how migration, abundance, or other phenological factors have changed for marine mammals, sea turtles, and fishes that migrate into the Gulf of Maine on a seasonal basis. Because marine animals are inherently difficult to detect, the team will apply dynamic occupancy models to evaluate seasonal migration patterns and habitat use across multiple habitats in the Gulf of Maine region. The project team will also synthesize regional information on a key, ecologically-important prey fish, sandlance, whose timing and abundance is a strong predictor of the occurrence and behavior of predator species targeted in this study as well as a range of other regional fish and wildlife of conservation and management concern. Results from this component of the project will identify coastal fish and wildlife species that are relatively more or less able to adapt and thus potentially vulnerable to climate change; determine the likely primary drivers of those changes; and identify data gaps and future monitoring needs. Ultimately, this information will be available and useful for regional coastal management and adaptation decisions that will allow managers to effectively plan for the future. In a second component of the project, researchers will focus specifically on changes in migration patterns of the endangered North Atlantic right whale. While shifts in the distribution and time of recurring life events are adaptive responses that may help species cope with climate impacts, they can also lead to changes in how species interact with humans. The North Atlantic right whale is one of the most endangered whale species on the planet. In the North Atlantic Ocean, ship strikes and entanglements with commercial fishing gear represent fatal threats to right whales. Recent reports suggest that North Atlantic right whale migration patterns have changed. Many researchers posit that shifts in migration are responsible for recent increases in the overlap between right whales and human activities, especially fishing. To help understand how changes in right whale movements and behaviors may overlap with ship traffic, and thus put the animals at risk of encountering vessels, we will combine right whale habitat models with ship traffic maps. The end result will be a set of maps identifying risk levels.

Gulf of Maine↗

USGS2019

It’s about time: A synthesis of changing phenology in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem

The timing of recurring biological and seasonal environmental events is changing on a global scale relative to temperature and other climate drivers. This study considers the Gulf of Maine ecosystem, a region of high social and ecological importance in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean and synthesizes current knowledge of 1) key seasonal processes, patterns, and events; 2) direct evidence for shifts in timing; 3) implications of phenological responses for linked ecological-human systems; and 4) potential phenology-focused adaptation strategies and actions. Twenty studies demonstrated shifts in timing of regional marine organisms and seasonal environmental events. The most common response was earlier timing, observed in spring onset, spring and winter hydrology, zooplankton abundance, and diadromous fish migrations. Later timing was documented for fall onset, reproduction and fledging in Atlantic puffins, spring and fall phytoplankton blooms, and occurrence of some larval fishes. Changes in event duration generally increased and were detected in zooplankton peak abundance, early life history periods of macro-invertebrates, and lobster fishery landings. Reduced duration was observed in winter-spring ice-affected stream flows. Two studies projected phenological changes, both finding diapause duration would decrease in zooplankton under future climate scenarios. Phenological responses were species-specific and varied depending on the environmental driver, spatial, and temporal scales evaluated. Overall, a wide range of baseline phenology and relevant modeling studies exist, yet surprisingly few document long-term shifts. Results reveal a need for increased emphasis on phenological shifts in the Gulf of Maine, identify opportunities for future research and consideration of phenological changes in adaptation efforts.

Maine↗

USGS2019

Larger body size and earlier run timing increase alewife reproductive success in a whole lake experiment

Environmental conditions can influence biological characteristics like phenology and body size with important consequences for organismal fitness. Examining these fitness consequences under natural conditions through genetic pedigree reconstruction offers a lens into potential population responses to changing environments. Over three years (2013-2015), we introduced adult alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), anadromous, iteroparous clupeids, into one Massachusetts (USA) lake to complete the first detailed examination of this species’ mating system and assess relationships between body size, reproductive timing, and seasonal reproductive success. We reconstructed pedigrees using 15 microsatellites and genotypes from all possible parents and samples of naturally produced offspring within four months of hatching. Within each of the three study years, spawning adults had multiple mates and spawned multiple times. Larger females that arrived earlier had higher reproductive success. Declining body size and altered migration timing over time, through an influence on reproductive success, can influence population vital rates and productivity.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2019

Ecological and management implications of climate change induced shifts in phenology of coastal fish and wildlife species in the Northeast CASC region

Climate change is causing species to shift their phenology, or the timing of recurring life events such as migration and reproduction, in variable and complex ways. This can potentially result in mismatches or asynchronies in food and habitat resources that negatively impact individual fitness, population dynamics, and ecosystem function. Numerous studies have evaluated phenological shifts in terrestrial species, particularly birds and plants, yet far fewer evaluations have been conducted for marine animals. This project seeks to improve our understanding of shifts in the timing of seasonal migration, spawning or breeding, and biological development (i.e. life stages present, dominant) of coastal fishes, marine mammals,and migratory shore and seabirds along the U.S Atlantic coast. Ideally the suite of species selected will allow us to compare whether fish, marine mammals, shore and seabird predators are shifting their phenology at different rates than their primary prey and optimal habitat conditions, thus influencing trophic interactions and population dynamics. A comprehensive literature review will be conducted simultaneous to data collection and synthesis to determine what is known, and what knowledge/information/data gaps exist regarding regional phenological responses of coastal species to climate change. Project results will help managers assess the vulnerability of coastal species to climate change by providing information on how they are responding to impacts in the region.

Conference Paper↗