Geology topics

Adam N. Price

Publications and source records attributed to Adam N. Price.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Emergent headwater types for watershed monitoring, research, and planning

Headwaters—that is headwater streams and the watersheds they drain—strongly influence water quality, ecosystem services, and hydrologic connectivity, yet remain poorly mapped, monitored, and understood at large spatial scales. Using available spatial data to classify headwater “types” could therefore enhance the utility of sparse monitoring data to advance research and watershed planning—and help update literature-based perceptual models of headwaters as steep, forested, and minimally disturbed watersheds. Here, we analyze headwaters across the contiguous United States to quantify how their attributes (climate, topography, land cover, soils) vary regionally and differ from their downstream watersheds. Our analysis (a) identified seven dominant headwater types with distinct combinations of biophysical and climatic attributes and (b) revealed systematic contrasts with downstream watersheds, with strongest differences in attributes representing potential flowpath depth. Our findings offer a transferable framework for classifying, modeling, and managing these critical yet understudied components of the hydrologic network.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2026

Streamflow and surface-water presence data availability across the conterminous United States: A review for headwater systems

Water is essential for life on Earth, supporting ecosystems, human health, and economic activities. Hydrology relies on observational data, and this paper discusses regional and national datasets for the conterminous United States (CONUS) publicly available as of 2023, focusing on headwaters, defined as first- and second-order streams at 1:24000 scale. It identifies 72 primary and secondary datasets and 11 repositories and argues how better integration and accessibility of hydrological data can improve research. The paper distinguishes between datasets where streamflow was the primary data collection objective and those where it was secondary. This distinction highlights opportunities to consider data from efforts peripheral to hydrology but is still useful for understanding hydrologic conditions. The analysis reveals that out of about 118 000 active and inactive stream observation sites, about 6.6% and 25% are located on first- and second-order streams, respectively. This indicates a substantial data gap for headwater systems, which account for over 77% of stream length in CONUS. Federal agencies manage 72% of hydrologic monitoring sites across all stream orders, but only 34% of these are in headwater systems. Academic institutions operate about 2% of sites, with almost half (48%) in headwater systems, focusing on ecosystem research. State agencies also operate about 2% of sites, primarily on larger systems, with 19% on headwaters. Additionally, 23% of sites are managed by multiple agencies. Spatial patterns further reveal pronounced disparities among physiographic regions. Eastern and coastal provinces show relatively dense monitoring, while central and western regions show sparse coverage. These gaps reflect historical priorities, logistical constraints, funding limitations, and the high cost of continuous instrumentation. To address biases in monitoring networks, data collection could be enhanced with low-cost monitoring, community science, and remote sensing technologies. This study also notes the benefits of long-term monitoring and prioritizing retention of streamgages with longer records.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2026

Identifying headwater streams across the conterminous United States

Headwater streams play critical roles in hydrologic and biogeochemical processes and functions, yet their spatial distribution and land cover context remain poorly understood at continental scales, and no dedicated geospatial dataset exists. Building from a high-resolution conterminous United States (CONUS) hydrography network dataset, we quantified the spatial extent, density, and upstream catchment characteristics of headwater stream segments across the CONUS. We identified approximately 8.4 million kilometers of headwater streams, finding that 77% of the total stream network consists of headwaters, nearly double the total length represented in prior estimates. Stream density varied fivefold across regions, from < 1 km·km −2 in arid basins to > 5 km·km −2 in humid, forested areas. Over 73% of the CONUS landmass drains from headwater streams. The majority of headwater stream length occurred in forested and cultivated catchments across the CONUS, while substantial regional differences were evident for headwater stream distribution in other land cover classes (for example, wetlands, urban areas, shrublands, and herbaceous-dominated catchments). The dedicated and novel geospatial dataset, HELiOS (HEadwater streams and Low-Order Systems) is introduced for management and research use. The HELiOS dataset provides the first continental-scale, high-resolution characterization of headwater streams, offering new insights and opportunities for hydrologic modeling, ecological assessments, and environmental policy.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2025

Interrogating process deficiencies in large-scale hydrologic models with interpretable machine learning

Large-scale hydrologic models are increasingly being developed for operational use in the forecasting and planning of water resources. However, the predictive strength of such models depends on how well they resolve various functions of catchment hydrology, which are influenced by gradients in climate, topography, soils, and land use. Most assessments of hydrologic model uncertainty have been limited to traditional statistical methods. Here, we present a proof-of-concept approach that uses interpretable machine learning techniques to provide post hoc assessment of model sensitivity and process deficiency in hydrologic models. We train a random forest model to predict the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) of National Water Model (NWM) and National Hydrologic Model (NHM) streamflow predictions for 4383 stream gauges in the conterminous United States. Thereafter, we explain the local and global controls that 48 catchment attributes exert on KGE prediction using interpretable Shapley values. Overall, we find that soil water content is the most impactful feature controlling successful model performance, suggesting that soil water storage is difficult for hydrologic models to resolve, particularly for arid locations. We identify nonlinear thresholds beyond which predictive performance decreases for NWM and NHM. For example, soil water content less than 210 mm, precipitation less than 900 mm yr −1 , road density greater than 5 km km −2 , and lake area percent greater than 10 % contributed to lower KGE values. These results suggest that improvements in how these influential processes are represented could result in the largest increases in NWM and NHM predictive performance. This study demonstrates the utility of interrogating process-based models using data-driven techniques, which has broad applicability and potential for improving the next generation of large-scale hydrologic models.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2025

Shared leadership can promote success in collaborative research networks in ecology

1. While collaborative science is becoming the norm in ecology, many ecologists participating in collaborations are less aware of the body of research that studies the processes by which collaborative teams organize and communicate. 2. Here, we discuss how we successfully used a shared leadership model in the Dry Rivers Research Coordination Network. We discuss how this model promote dour success in different stages of the project, using the Tuckman model of team development: forming, storming, norming, performing and adjourning. 3. Shared leadership in the forming phase helped us recruit a diverse membership from different scientific disciplines. In the storming and norming phases, shared leadership was especially useful in ensuring that all voices were heard in establishing group norms that promoted adhesion among and investment by RCN members. Shared leadership in the performing phase was crucial in providing opportunities for early career members to lead projects, and in the adjourning phase we reflected upon our entire collaboration to identify that shared leadership was crucial to our success, generating the thesis for this commentary. 4. It is our hope that others may find this discussion of our experience in implementing a shared leadership model useful in developing their own fruitful collaborations.

Functional Ecology↗

USGS2025

Advancing the science of headwater streamflow for global water protection

The protection of headwater streams faces increasing challenges, exemplified by limited global recognition of headwater contributions to watershed resiliency and a recent US Supreme Court decision limiting federal safeguards. Despite accounting for ~77% of global river networks, the lack of adequate headwaters protections is caused, in part, by limited information on their extent and functions—in particular, their flow regimes, which form the foundation for decision-making regarding their protection. Yet, headwater streamflow is challenging to comprehensively measure and model; it is highly variable and sensitive to changes in land use, management and climate. Modelling headwater streamflow to quantify its cumulative contributions to downstream river networks requires an integrative understanding across local hillslope and channel (that is, watershed) processes. Here we begin to address this challenge by proposing a consistent definition for headwater systems and streams, evaluating how headwater streamflow is characterized and advocating for closing gaps in headwater streamflow data collection, modelling and synthesis.

Nature Water↗

USGS2024

Biogeochemical and community ecology responses to the wetting of non-perennial streams

Transitions between dry and wet hydrologic states are the defining characteristic of non-perennial rivers and streams, which constitute the majority of the global river network. Although past work has focused on stream drying characteristics, there has been less focus on how hydrology, ecology and biogeochemistry respond and interact during stream wetting. Wetting mechanisms are highly variable and can range from dramatic floods and debris flows to gradual saturation by upwelling groundwater. This variation in wetting affects ecological and biogeochemical functions, including nutrient processing, sediment transport and the assembly of biotic communities. Here we synthesize evidence describing the hydrological mechanisms underpinning different types of wetting regimes, the associated biogeochemical and organismal responses, and the potential scientific and management implications for downstream ecosystems. This combined multidisciplinary understanding of wetting dynamics in non-perennial streams will be key to predicting and managing for the effects of climate change on non-perennial ecosystems.

Nature Water↗

USGS2022

Going beyond low flows: Streamflow drought deficit and duration illuminate distinct spatiotemporal drought patterns and trends in the U.S. during the last century

Streamflow drought is a recurring challenge, and understanding spatiotemporal patterns of past droughts is needed to manage future water resources. We examined regional patterns in streamflow drought metrics and compared these metrics to low flow timing and magnitude using long-term daily records for 555 minimally disturbed watersheds. For each streamgage, we calculated streamflow drought duration (number of days) and deficit (flow volume below a specified threshold) for each climate year (April 1–March 31). We identified drought using five thresholds (2%–30%) and two approaches: variable thresholds with unique values for each day of the year, and a fixed threshold based on all period-of-record flows. We then analyzed drought trends using the Mann-Kendall test with persistence adjustment for 1921–2020, 1951–2020, and 1981–2020, and computed correlations between annual streamflow drought metrics and climate metrics using values from a monthly water balance model. Spatial patterns in drought metrics were consistent between variable and fixed approaches, though fixed threshold durations were typically longer and variable threshold deficits larger. High interannual variability in drought duration emerged in the central, interior west, and southwestern U.S., with high deficit variability in the interior west. Drought metrics were weakly correlated with low flow magnitude and timing, providing unique information. Drought duration and deficit increased in the southern and western U.S. for both 1951–2020 and 1981–2020, particularly using fixed thresholds, and paralleled trends in aridity. Projections of continued aridification for the southern and western U.S. may increase drought durations and deficits and intensify water availability impacts.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2022

Exploring declustering methodology for addressing geothermal exploration bias

Geothermal resources assessments use data that are unevenly distributed in space, with more data collected in areas with known thermal features. To meet the assumptions for geostatistical modeling (e.g., variography and kriging) such as having a random sample representative of the population, declustering may be needed to correct for spatial sample bias. Several declustering methods exist and to understand how best to use these methods, we apply these to real data and samples of that data. The work described herein summarizes the application of cell-based declustering to shallow temperature data (~20 cm) collected in a survey across a thermal feature in the Lower Geyser Basin, Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming. The sample dataset is a regular grid (3-m spacing) of temperatures across a 72-m square area, providing a shallow, subsurface temperature dataset collected with minimal spatial bias (a few grid locations near a hot spring could not be sampled). To test the influence of sample clustering on geothermal estimates, this dense dataset is sub-sampled irregularly to evaluate bias on temperature estimation. Three sampling strategies were tested: a simple random sample, a stratified random sample, and a stratified biased random sample. The naive mean (before declustering) values for each dataset were compared to the post-declustering mean to evaluate the effectiveness of declustering on correcting the mean for spatial bias. For the limited number of sample datasets evaluated, we found that although cell-based declustering did partially correct the mean, some bias remained (i.e., the estimate was improved, but not fully corrected). It is possible that the procedure documented herein (applied here to only a few random samples) could be applied to many random samples, so that robust conclusions might be drawn (e.g., Is there always some remaining bias in declustered estimates? Does it depend on the number of sample points?). In particular, bias could be evaluated for persistency, and uncertainty could be evaluated.

Geothermal Resources Council Transactions↗

USGS2021

Pervasive changes in stream intermittency across the United States

Non-perennial streams are widespread, critical to ecosystems and society, and the subject of ongoing policy debate. Prior large-scale research on stream intermittency has been based on long-term averages, generally using annually aggregated data to characterize a highly variable process. As a result, it is not well understood if, how, or why the hydrology of non-perennial streams is changing. Here, we investigate trends and drivers of three intermittency signatures that describe the duration, timing, and dry-down period of stream intermittency across the continental United States (CONUS). Half of gages exhibited a significant trend through time in at least one of the three intermittency signatures, and changes in no-flow duration were most pervasive (41% of gages). Changes in intermittency were substantial for many streams, and 7% of gages exhibited changes in annual no-flow duration exceeding 100 days during the study period. Distinct regional patterns of change were evident, with widespread drying in southern CONUS and wetting in northern CONUS. These patterns are correlated with changes in aridity, though drivers of spatiotemporal variability were diverse across the three intermittency signatures. While the no-flow timing and duration were strongly related to climate, dry-down period was most strongly related to watershed land use and physiography. Our results indicate that non-perennial conditions are increasing in prevalence over much of CONUS and binary classifications of 'perennial' and 'non-perennial' are not an accurate reflection of this change. Water management and policy should reflect the changing nature and diverse drivers of changing intermittency both today and in the future.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2021

The drying regimes of non-perennial rivers and streams

The flow regime paradigm is central to the aquatic sciences, where flow drives critical functions in lotic systems. Non-perennial streams comprise the majority of global river length, thus we extended this paradigm to stream drying. Using 894 USGS gages, we isolated 25,207 drying events from 1979 to 2018, represented by a streamflow peak followed by no flow. We calculated hydrologic signatures for each drying event and using multivariate statistics, grouped events into drying regimes characterized by: (a) fast drying, (b) long no-flow duration, (c) prolonged drying following low antecedent flows, (d) drying without a distinctive hydrologic signature. 77% of gages had more than one drying regime at different times within the study period. Random forests revealed land cover/use are more important to how a river dries than climate or physiographic characteristics. Clustering stream drying behavior may allow practitioners to more systematically adapt water resource management practices to specific drying regimes or rivers.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2021

Spatial patterns and drivers of nonperennial flow regimes in the contiguous United States

Over half of global rivers and streams lack perennial flow, and understanding the distribution and drivers of their flow regimes is critical for understanding their hydrologic, biogeochemical, and ecological functions. We analyzed nonperennial flow regimes using 540 U.S. Geological Survey watersheds across the contiguous United States from 1979 to 2018. Multivariate analyses revealed regional differences in no-flow fraction, date of first no flow, and duration of the dry-down period, with further divergence between natural and human-altered watersheds. Aridity was a primary driver of no-flow metrics at the continental scale, while unique combinations of climatic, physiographic and anthropogenic drivers emerged at regional scales. Dry-down duration showed stronger associations with nonclimate drivers compared to no-flow fraction and timing. Although the sparse distribution of nonperennial gages limits our understanding of such streams, the watersheds examined here suggest the important role of aridity and land cover change in modulating future stream drying.

contiguous United States↗