Geology topics

Aaron D. Shultz

Publications and source records attributed to Aaron D. Shultz.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Holistic understanding of uncertainty for collaborative and proactive global change decision making

Global change is accelerating and pushing the planet's ecosystems beyond the range of historical observations, creating increasing uncertainty in future system conditions. Despite general agreement that proactive environmental action is warranted, environmental decision conversations often end by identifying additional data needed to reduce uncertainty before taking novel action. Given the inherent uncertainty in complex issues such as global change, quantitative data alone are likely insufficient to support proactive environmental action. Holistic understanding of uncertainty includes scientific quantification of uncertainty paired with emotional responses and transcendental grounding to help people work together toward proactive action in uncertain decision contexts. Holistic understanding arises from the four ways in which humans perceive the world, termed the Four Realms: Physical (e.g., how I observe), Mental (e.g., how I think), Emotional (e.g., how I feel), and Transcendental (e.g., how I connect to greater meaning or purpose). Environmental scientists and decision makers are generally trained in Physical and Mental Realm observation and analysis, but not in how to apply Emotional and Transcendental Realm understanding. Emotional and Transcendental processing occurs in scientists and decision makers whether it is acknowledged or not and contributes to different people interpreting the same information in different ways. Thus, when the role of Emotional and Transcendental Realms in an individual's interpretation process is not understood, it can derail conversations and perpetuate the status quo. Explicitly recognizing all Four Realms can bring people together across differences and inspire shared, novel decision making even in increasing uncertainty. To illustrate the benefits of holistic understanding, we share stories from our experiences in environmental decision contexts. Because accessing the Four Realms requires experiential and embodied techniques, while still relying on core scientific tenets of observation and analysis, we also present techniques for readers to learn to feel their own emotional understanding and connect to their own transcendental understanding. Holistic understanding can enhance data-driven decisions by recognizing that human responses to uncertainty inherently include interactions between emotions, thoughts, transcendental connections, and behavior. Ultimately, holistic understanding can help anchor data-driven decisions in intra- and interpersonal connections, inspiring action in the face of uncertainty.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2025

RAD (Resist-Accept-Direct) switch points and triggers for adaptation planning

Climate change is transforming ecosystems globally. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework has gained traction within many natural resource management institutions to help consider the decision space in response to this transformation. Because RAD helps manage for directional change, RAD choices entail considering which RAD pathway to implement and for how long. For example, one may accept a slowly changing ecosystem, but at a certain point, decide to begin resisting or directing the change an ecosystem is experiencing. Alternatively, one may begin resisting an ecosystem transformation, but ultimately realize resistance is no longer feasible based on cost or efficacy. These choices are challenging and encompass broad domains of cultural, ecological, financial, organizational, public, regulatory, and technological considerations to determine when to switch RAD pathways. We introduce the concepts of RAD switch points and triggers to help support these decision processes. We illustrate these concepts using case studies on walleye ( Sander vitreus ) stocking decisions in Wisconsin, wildfire response in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, and bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) management in Oregon, USA. Synthesizing across these examples, we delineate key points for decision makers as they (iteratively) reevaluate among the RAD pathways as conditions continue to change.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2025

Sustaining Namāēw (Lake Sturgeon): Partner-led climate adaptation for Indigenous fisheries in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Namāēw (Menominee; Lake Sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens ) have long supported Indigenous culture and food sovereignty but have declined by over 80% in the Laurentian Great Lakes, exacerbating their sensitivity to climate change. Following interest from Indigenous leaders, we initiated a partnership-driven effort to (1) assess climate effects and (2) develop potential adaptation options for Namāēw using a participatory, transdisciplinary approach that combines multiple ways of knowing. Through a literature review and nine semistructured conversations with officials from Indigenous Nations and organizations in the Great Lakes, we identified central themes including access, culture, and fish persistence. Other concerns included habitat, food web shifts, and water quality. Prominent adaptation themes involved population assessments, stocking, regulations, habitat restoration, interagency coordination, and cultural advocacy. These findings underscore the importance of partnership-driven research to support Indigenous fisheries through knowledge coproduction and equitable adaptation. Our approach provides a model to inform stewardship planning for fisheries that are facing global change.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗

USGS2025

Healing ogaa (walleye Sander vitreus) waters: Lessons and future directions for inland fisheries rehabilitation

ulturally, economically, and nutritionally valuable inland fisheries face many new challenges on top of chronic disturbances. In the upper midwestern United States, declines in cool- and coldwater fisheries have been observed, including ogaa/walleye Sander vitreus . In response to population declines, agencies have implemented rehabilitation efforts, and the frequency and intensity of efforts have increased recently given declines. Evaluating intervention outcomes is critical for institutional learning and to understand strategy effectiveness, but is difficult to do when multiple interventions are applied concurrently and in the absence of replication or controls. This review documents walleye rehabilitation efforts in the upper Midwest U.S., where a rehabilitation effort was defined as a coordinated effort with the stated intention to restore a self-sustaining population such that it required limited-to-no further intervention. We discuss: (1) strategies used; (2) similarities and differences in metrics of success; (3) factors leading to success; and (4) recommendations that may increase future successful rehabilitation. Strategies included harvest regulation changes, stocking, fish community manipulations, habitat enhancement, and partner discussions. Overall, evaluations of environmental, habitat, and fish community factors causing walleye population declines were not included in most rehabilitation plans before implementation. This review highlights an increased need for ecosystem-based fisheries management principles and cultivating ecological conditions that favor walleye as a potential path for future rehabilitation plans. Lessons drawn from rehabilitation plans are applicable to global inland fisheries to inform the conservation of declining fish populations.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2023

Reimagining large river management using the Resist–Accept–Direct (RAD) framework in the Upper Mississippi River

Background Large-river decision-makers are charged with maintaining diverse ecosystem services through unprecedented social-ecological transformations as climate change and other global stressors intensify. The interconnected, dendritic habitats of rivers, which often demarcate jurisdictional boundaries, generate complex management challenges. Here, we explore how the Resist–Accept–Direct (RAD) framework may enhance large-river management by promoting coordinated and deliberate responses to social-ecological trajectories of change. The RAD framework identifies the full decision space of potential management approaches, wherein managers may resist change to maintain historical conditions, accept change toward different conditions, or direct change to a specified future with novel conditions. In the Upper Mississippi River System, managers are facing social-ecological transformations from more frequent and extreme high-water events. We illustrate how RAD-informed basin-, reach-, and site-scale decisions could: (1) provide cross-spatial scale framing; (2) open the entire decision space of potential management approaches; and (3) enhance coordinated inter-jurisdictional management in response to the trajectory of the Upper Mississippi River hydrograph. Results The RAD framework helps identify plausible long-term trajectories in different reaches (or subbasins) of the river and how the associated social-ecological transformations could be managed by altering site-scale conditions. Strategic reach-scale objectives may reprioritize how, where, and when site conditions could be altered to contribute to the basin goal, given the basin’s plausible trajectories of change (e.g., by coordinating action across sites to alter habitat connectivity, diversity, and redundancy in the river mosaic). Conclusions When faced with long-term systemic transformations (e.g., > 50 years), the RAD framework helps explicitly consider whether or when the basin vision or goals may no longer be achievable, and direct options may open yet unconsidered potential for the basin. Embedding the RAD framework in hierarchical decision-making clarifies that the selection of actions in space and time should be derived from basin-wide goals and reach-scale objectives to ensure that site-scale actions contribute effectively to the larger river habitat mosaic. Embedding the RAD framework in large-river decisions can provide the necessary conduit to link flexibility and innovation at the site scale with stability at larger scales for adaptive governance of changing social-ecological systems.

Upper Mississippi River↗

USGS2022

Resist-accept-direct (RAD) considerations for climate change adaptation in fisheries: The Wisconsin experience

Decision-makers in inland fisheries management must balance ecologically and socially palatable objectives for ecosystem services within financial or physical constraints. Climate change has transformed the potential range of ecosystem services available. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework offers a foundation for responding to climate-induced ecosystem modification; however, ecosystem trajectories and current practices must be understood to improve future decisions. Using Wisconsin's diverse inland fisheries as a case study, management strategies for recreational and subsistence fisheries in response to climate change were reviewed within the RAD framework. Current strategies largely focus on resist actions, while future strategies may need to shift toward accept or direct actions. A participatory adaptive management framework and co-production of policies between state and tribal agencies could prioritise lakes for appropriate management action, with the goal of providing a landscape of diverse fishing opportunities. This knowledge co-production represents a process of social learning requiring substantial investments of funding and time.

Wisconsin↗