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A.J. Michael

Publications and source records attributed to A.J. Michael.

15 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2014

Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness

We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time‐dependent probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground‐motion exceedance probabilities as well as short‐term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long‐term forecasts of probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA).

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2012

Spatial patterns of aftershocks of shallow focus earthquakes in California and implications for deep focus earthquakes

Previous workers have pioneered statistical techniques to study the spatial distribution of aftershocks with respect to the focal mechanism of the main shock. Application of these techniques to deep focus earthquakes failed to show clustering of aftershocks near the nodal planes of the main shocks. To better understand the behavior of these statistics, this study applies them to the aftershocks of six large shallow focus earthquakes in California (August 6, 1979, Coyote Lake; May 2, 1983, Coalinga; April 24, 1984, Morgan Hill; August 4, 1985, Kettleman Hills; July 8, 1986, North Palm Springs; and October 1, 1987, Whittier Narrows). The large number of aftershocks accurately located by dense local networks allows us to treat these aftershock sequences individually instead of combining them, as was done for the deep earthquakes. The results for individual sequences show significant clustering about the closest nodal plane and the strike direction for five of the sequences and about the presumed fault plane for all six sequences. This implies that the previously developed method does work properly. Nonrandom behavior was also found about the slip directions, the P axis, the T axis, and the B axis, but this is probably caused by the lack of independence between these axes and the previously mentioned features of the focal mechanisms. Given that the method does work and that deep aftershocks were not shown to cluster about the main shock nodal planes, the shallow focus data were used to simulate the deep focus study. The goal is to determine if there are artificial factors that make clustering in the deep focus data unobservable. To more closely mimic the work on deep earthquakes, the largest aftershocks from each of the six sequences were combined and studied with respect to their respective main shock focal mechanisms. This reduced the significance of the clustering about the focal mechanism parameters, but not below 95% confidence. Gaussian noise was then added to the aftershock hypocenters in order to determine if the larger hypocentral and focal mechanism errors in the deep focus data could account for the previous negative result. The conclusion is that the following reasons are sufficient to explain the lack of clustering about the main shock nodal planes for the deep focus aftershocks: the need to combine aftershocks from several sequences, the size of the hypocentral location and focal mechanism errors, and the alignment of distant aftershocks with the Wadati-Benioff zone.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2004

Stress field variations in the Swiss Alps and the northern Alpine foreland derived from inversion of fault plane solutions

This study is devoted to a systematic analysis of the state of stress of the central European Alps and northern Alpine foreland in Switzerland based on focal mechanisms of 138 earthquakes with magnitudes between 1 and 5. The most robust feature of the results is that the azimuth of the minimum compressive stress, S 3 , is generally well constrained for all data subsets and always lies in the NE quadrant. However, within this quadrant, the orientation of S 3 changes systematically both along the structural strike of the Alpine chain and across it. The variation in stress along the mountain belt from NE to SW involves a progressive, counterclockwise rotation of S 3 and is most clear in the foreland, where it amounts to 45°–50°. This pattern of rotation is compatible with the disturbance to the stress field expected from the indentation of the Adriatic Block into the central European Plate, possibly together with buoyancy forces arising from the strongly arcuate structure of the Moho to the immediate west of our study area. Across the Alps, the variation in azimuth of S 3 is defined by a progressive, counterclockwise rotation of about 45° from the foreland in the north across the Helvetic domain to the Penninic nappes in the south and is accompanied by a change from a slight predominance of strike-slip mechanisms in the foreland to a strong predominance of normal faulting in the high parts of the Alps. The observed rotation can be explained by the perturbation of the large-scale regional stress by a local uniaxial deviatoric tension with a magnitude similar to that of the regional differential stress and with an orientation perpendicular to the strike of the Alpine belt. The tensile nature and orientation of this stress is consistent with the “spreading” stress expected from lateral density changes due to a crustal root beneath the Alps.

European Alps↗
USGS2003

A shallow fault-zone structure illuminated by trapped waves in the Karadere-Duzce branch of the North Anatolian Fault, western Turkey

We discuss the subsurface structure of the Karadere-Duzce branch of the North Anatolian Fault based on analysis of a large seismic data set recorded by a local PASSCAL network in the 6 months following the Mw = 7.4 1999 Izmit earthquake. Seismograms observed at stations located in the immediate vicinity of the rupture zone show motion amplification and long-period oscillations in both P- and S-wave trains that do not exist in nearby off-fault stations. Examination of thousands of waveforms reveals that these characteristics are commonly generated by events that are well outside the fault zone. The anomalous features in fault-zone seismograms produced by events not necessarily in the fault may be referred to generally as fault-zone-related site effects. The oscillatory shear wave trains after the direct S arrival in these seismograms are analysed as trapped waves propagating in a low-velocity fault-zone layer. The time difference between the S arrival and trapped waves group does not grow systematically with increasing source-receiver separation along the fault. These observations imply that the trapping of seismic energy in the Karadere-Duzce rupture zone is generated by a shallow fault-zone layer. Traveltime analysis and synthetic waveform modelling indicate that the depth of the trapping structure is approximately 3-4 km. The synthetic waveform modelling indicates further that the shallow trapping structure has effective waveguide properties consisting of thickness of the order of 100 m, a velocity decrease relative to the surrounding rock of approximately 50 per cent and an S-wave quality factor of 10-15. The results are supported by large 2-D and 3-D parameter space studies and are compatible with recent analyses of trapped waves in a number of other faults and rupture zones. The inferred shallow trapping structure is likely to be a common structural element of fault zones and may correspond to the top part of a flower-type structure. The motion amplification associated with fault-zone-related site effects increases the seismic shaking hazard near fault-zone structures. The effect may be significant since the volume of sources capable of generating motion amplification in shallow trapping structures is large.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2002

A preliminary study on fine structures of Jiashi earthquake region and earthquake generating fault

It is very unusual that nine large earthquakes of similar magnitudes (M = 6.1-6.8) occured within a very small area and a very short period of time (1997-1998) in Jiashi of Xinjiang Province, Northwest China. This paper analyzes the observed data of the aftershocks in the Jiashi earthquake region for studying the generating mechanism and deep structural background of the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm. The simultaneous inversion method was used to calculate the hypocenter positions and 3-D velocity structure of this region. The results show that the aftershocks concentrated in a NNE-trending belt, which roughly coincides with the NE-trending belt of the two strong earthquake belts. Velocity structure obtained from 3-D inversion suggests that there exist two low velocity zones, one trending NNE and the other NNW, below the depth of 12 km. These low velocity zones are almost consistent with the two strong earthquake belts. The preliminary results lead to the conclusion that the low velocity zones correspond to two deep crustal faults. At the time of our observation, microearthquakes took place on the NNE-trending fault, while the NNW-trending fault was relatively quiescent.

Acta Geophysica Sinica↗
USGS1999

Birth of a fault: Connecting the Kern County and Walker Pass, California, earthquakes

A band of seismicity transects the southern Sierra Nevada range between the northeastern end of the site of the 1952 M W (moment magnitude) 7.3 Kern County earthquake and the site of the 1946 M W 6.1 Walker Pass earthquake. Relocated earthquakes in this band, which lacks a surface expression, better delineate the northeast-trending seismic lineament and resolve complex structure near the Walker Pass mainshock. Left-lateral earthquake focal planes are rotated counterclockwise from the strike of the seismic lineament, consistent with slip on shear fractures such as those observed in the early stages of fault development in laboratory experiments. We interpret this seismic lineament as a previously unrecognized, incipient, currently blind, strike-slip fault, a unique example of a newly forming structure.

Geology↗
USGS1998

Seismotectonics of the Loma Prieta, California, region determined from three-dimensional Vp, Vp/Vs, and seismicity

Three-dimensional V p and V p / V s velocity models for the Loma Prieta region were developed from the inversion of local travel time data (21,925 P arrivals and 1,116 S arrivals) from earthquakes, refraction shots, and blasts recorded on 1700 stations from the Northern California Seismic Network and numerous portable seismograph deployments. The velocity and density models and microearthquake hypocenters reveal a complex structure that includes a San Andreas fault extending to the base of the seismogenic layer. A body with high V p extends the length of the rupture and fills the 5 km wide volume between the Loma Prieta mainshock rupture and the San Andreas and Sargent faults. We suggest that this body controls both the pattern of background seismicity on the San Andreas and Sargent faults and the extent of rupture during the mainshock, thus explaining how the background seismicity outlined the along-strike and depth extent of the mainshock rupture on a different fault plane 5 km away. New aftershock focal mechanisms, based on three-dimensional ray tracing through the velocity model, support a heterogeneous postseismic stress field and can not resolve a uniform fault normal compression. The subvertical (or steeply dipping) San Andreas fault and the fault surfaces that ruptured in the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are both parts of the San Andreas fault zone and this section of the fault zone does not have a single type of characteristic event.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1997

Testing prediction methods: Earthquake clustering versus the Poisson model

Testing earthquake prediction methods requires statistical techniques that compare observed success to random chance. One technique is to produce simulated earthquake catalogs and measure the relative success of predicting real and simulated earthquakes. The accuracy of these tests depends on the validity of the statistical model used to simulate the earthquakes. This study tests the effect of clustering in the statistical earthquake model on the results. Three simulation models were used to produce significance levels for a VLF earthquake prediction method. As the degree of simulated clustering increases, the statistical significance drops. Hence, the use of a seismicity model with insufficient clustering can lead to overly optimistic results. A successful method must pass the statistical tests with a model that fully replicates the observed clustering. However, a method can be rejected based on tests with a model that contains insufficient clustering.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS1991

Relations among fault behavior, subsurface geology, and three-dimensional velocity models

The development of three-dimensional P-wave velocity models for the regions surrounding five large earthquakes in California has lead to the recognition of relations among fault behavior and the material properties of the rocks that contact the fault at seismogenic depths; regions of high moment release appear to correlate with high seismic velocities whereas rupture initiation or termination may be associated with lower seismic velocities. These relations point toward a physical understanding of why faults are divided into segments that can fail independently, an understanding that could improve our ability to predict earthquakes and strong ground motion.

California↗
USGS1988

The 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, California

The Whittier Narrows earthquake sequence (local magnitude, M L = 5.9), which caused over 358-million dollars damage, indicates that assessments of earthquake hazards in the Los Angeles metropolitan area may be underestimated. The sequence ruptured a previously unidentified thrust fault that may be part of a large system of thrust faults that extends across the entire east-west length of the northern margin of the Los Angeles basin. Peak horizontal accelerations from the main shock, which were measured at ground level and in structures, were as high as 0.6 g (where g is the acceleration of gravity at sea level) within 50 kilometers of the epicenter. The distribution of the modified Mercalli intensity VII reflects a broad north-south elongated zone of damage that is approximately centered on the main shock epicenter.

California↗
USGS1988

Effects of three-dimensional velocity structure on the seismicity of the 1984 Morgan Hill, California, aftershock sequence

A three-dimensional velocity model for the area surrounding the 24 April 1984 Morgan Hill earthquake has been developed by simultaneously inverting local earthquake and refraction arrival-time data. This velocity model corresponds well to the surface geology of the region, predominantly showing a low-velocity region associated with the sedimentary sequence to the southwest of the Madrone Springs fault. This low-velocity sequence extends to a depth of approximately 5 km. Previously constructed geologic cross-sections for this region had suggested that these sediments extended to a depth of less than 2 km. Relocation of 2,179 hypocenters with the three-dimensional velocity model did not show great differences when compared to locations done with a one-dimensional velocity model with station corrections. In both cases, the Calaveras fault is steep but has a noticeable dip to the northeast and the seismicity does not intersect the surface along the trace of the Calaveras fault in the southern half of the rupture zone. The greatest differences between the two sets of locations was that the locations using the three-dimensional velocity model were deeper, and fewer earthquakes were located within the low-velocity region. The focal mechanisms were also determined for 946 earthquakes using both the one-dimensional and three-dimensional earth models. Both earth models yield similar focal mechanisms for these earthquakes.

California↗