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A. V. Vecchia

Publications and source records attributed to A. V. Vecchia.

11 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2010

Stochastic analysis of three-dimensional flow in a bounded domain

A commonly accepted first-order approximation of the equation for steady state flow in a fully saturated spatially random medium has the form of Poisson's equation. This form allows for the advantageous use of Green's functions to solve for the random output (hydraulic heads) in terms of a convolution over the random input (the logarithm of hydraulic conductivity). A solution for steady state three- dimensional flow in an aquifer bounded above and below is presented; consideration of these boundaries is made possible by use of Green's functions to solve Poisson's equation. Within the bounded domain the medium hydraulic conductivity is assumed to be a second-order stationary random process as represented by a simple three-dimensional covariance function. Upper and lower boundaries are taken to be no-flow boundaries; the mean flow vector lies entirely in the horizontal dimensions. The resulting hydraulic head covariance function exhibits nonstationary effects resulting from the imposition of boundary conditions. Comparisons are made with existing infinite domain solutions.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2009

Assessment of water quality trends in the Minnesota River using non-parametric and parametric methods

Excessive loading of sediment and nutrients to rivers is a major problem in many parts of the United States. In this study, we tested the non-parametric Seasonal Kendall (SEAKEN) trend model and the parametric USGS Quality of Water trend program (QWTREND) to quantify trends in water quality of the Minnesota River at Fort Snelling from 1976 to 2003. Both methods indicated decreasing trends in flow-adjusted concentrations of total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), and orthophosphorus (OP) and a generally increasing trend in flow-adjusted nitrate plus nitrite-nitrogen (NO 3 -N) concentration. The SEAKEN results were strongly influenced by the length of the record as well as extreme years (dry or wet) earlier in the record. The QWTREND results, though influenced somewhat by the same factors, were more stable. The magnitudes of trends between the two methods were somewhat different and appeared to be associated with conceptual differences between the flow-adjustment processes used and with data processing methods. The decreasing trends in TSS, TP, and OP concentrations are likely related to conservation measures implemented in the basin. However, dilution effects from wet climate or additional tile drainage cannot be ruled out. The increasing trend in NO 3 -N concentrations was likely due to increased drainage in the basin. Since the Minnesota River is the main source of sediments to the Mississippi River, this study also addressed the rapid filling of Lake Pepin on the Mississippi River and found the likely cause to be increased flow due to recent wet climate in the region. Copyright ?? 2009 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗
USGS2008

Modeling variability and trends in pesticide concentrations in streams

A parametric regression model was developed for assessing the variability and long-term trends in pesticide concentrations in streams. The dependent variable is the logarithm of pesticide concentration and the explanatory variables are a seasonal wave, which represents the seasonal variability of concentration in response to seasonal application rates; a streamflow anomaly, which is the deviation of concurrent daily streamflow from average conditions for the previous 30 days; and a trend, which represents long-term (inter-annual) changes in concentration. Application of the model to selected herbicides and insecticides in four diverse streams indicated the model is robust with respect to pesticide type, stream location, and the degree of censoring (proportion of nondetections). An automatic model fitting and selection procedure for the seasonal wave and trend components was found to perform well for the datasets analyzed. Artificial censoring scenarios were used in a Monte Carlo simulation analysis to show that the fitted trends were unbiased and the approximate p-values were accurate for as few as 10 uncensored concentrations during a three-year period, assuming a sampling frequency of 15 samples per year. Trend estimates for the full model were compared with a model without the streamflow anomaly and a model in which the seasonality was modeled using standard trigonometric functions, rather than seasonal application rates. Exclusion of the streamflow anomaly resulted in substantial increases in the mean-squared error and decreases in power for detecting trends. Incorrectly modeling the seasonal structure of the concentration data resulted in substantial estimation bias and moderate increases in mean-squared error and decreases in power. ?? 2008 American Water Resources Association.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2007

Periodic autoregressive-moving average (PARMA) modeling with applications to water resources

Results involving correlation properties and parameter estimation for autoregressive-moving average models with periodic parameters are presented. A multivariate representation of the PARMA model is used to derive parameter space restrictions and difference equations for the periodic autocorrelations. Close approximation to the likelihood function for Gaussian PARMA processes results in efficient maximum-likelihood estimation procedures. Terms in the Fourier expansion of the parameters are sequentially included, and a selection criterion is given for determining the optimal number of harmonics to be included. Application of the techniques is demonstrated through analysis of a monthly streamflow time series.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2005

Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate

Water availability on the continents is important for human health , economic activity , ecosystem function and geophysical processes . Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming . Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10–40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10–30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

Nature↗
USGS2000

Climatology, hydrology, and simulation of an emergency outlet, Devils Lake basin, North Dakota

Devils Lake is a natural lake in northeastern North Dakota that is the terminus of a nearly 4,000-square-mile subbasin in the Red River of the North Basin. The lake has not reached its natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River (a tributary of the Red River of the North) in recorded history. However, geologic evidence indicates a spill occurred sometime within the last 1,800 years. From 1993 to 1999, Devils Lake rose 24.5 feet and, at the present (August 2000), is about 13 feet below the natural spill elevation. The recent lake-level rise has caused flood damages exceeding $300 million and triggered development of future flood-control options to prevent further infrastructure damage and reduce the risk of a potentially catastrophic uncontrolled spill. Construction of an emergency outlet from the west end of Devils Lake to the Sheyenne River is one flood-control option being considered. This report describes the climatologic and hydrologic causes of the recent lake level rise, provides information on the potential for continued lake-level rises during the next 15 years, and describes the potential effectiveness of an emergency outlet in reducing future lake levels and in reducing the risk of an uncontrolled spill. The potential effects of an outlet on downstream water quantity and quality in the upper Sheyenne River also are described.

South Dakota↗