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A. Atkinson

Publications and source records attributed to A. Atkinson.

4 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2019

Prediction of unprecedented biological shifts in the global ocean

Impermanence is an ecological principle 1 but there are times when changes occur nonlinearly as abrupt community shifts (ACSs) that transform the ecosystem state and the goods and services it provides 2 . Here, we present a model based on niche theory 3 to explain and predict ACSs at the global scale. We test our model using 14 multi-decadal time series of marine metazoans from zooplankton to fish, spanning all latitudes and the shelf to the open ocean. Predicted and observed fluctuations correspond, with both identifying ACSs at the end of the 1980s 4,5,6,7 and 1990s 5,8 . We show that these ACSs coincide with changes in climate that alter local thermal regimes, which in turn interact with the thermal niche of species to trigger long-term and sometimes abrupt shifts at the community level. A large-scale ACS is predicted after 2014—unprecedented in magnitude and extent—coinciding with a strong El Niño event and major shifts in Northern Hemisphere climate. Our results underline the sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean, where unprecedented melting may reorganize biological communities 5,9 , and suggest an increase in the size and consequences of ACS events in a warming world.

Nature Climate Change↗
USGS2009

Coral disease following massive bleaching in 2005 causes 60% decline in coral cover on reefs in the US Virgin Islands

In the northeast Caribbean, doldrum-like conditions combined with elevated water temperatures in the summer/fall 2005 created the most severe coral bleaching event ever documented within this region. Video monitoring of 100 randomly chosen, permanent transects at five study sites in the US Virgin Islands revealed over 90% of the scleractinian coral cover showed signs of thermal stress by paling or becoming completely white. Lower water temperatures in October allowed some re-coloring of corals; however, a subsequent unprecedented regional outbreak of coral disease affected all sites. Five known diseases or syndromes were recorded; however, most lesions showed signs similar to white plague. Nineteen scleractinian species were affected by disease, with >90% of the disease-induced lesions occurring on the genus Montastraea. The disease outbreak peaked several months after the onset of bleaching at all sites but did not occur at the same time. The mean number of disease-induced lesions increased 51-fold and the mean area of disease-associated mortality increased 13-fold when compared with pre-bleaching disease levels. In the 12 months following the onset of bleaching, coral cover declined at all sites (average loss: 51.5%, range: 42.4-61.8%) reducing the five-site average from 21.4% before bleaching to 10.3% with most mortality caused by white plague disease, not bleaching. Continued losses through October 2007 reduced the average coral cover of the five sites to 8.3% (average 2-year loss: 61.1%, range: 53.0-79.3%). Mean cover by M. annularis (complex) decreased 51%, Colpophyllia natans 78% and Agaricia agaricites 87%. Isolated disease outbreaks have been documented before in the Virgin Islands, but never as widespread or devastating as the one that occurred after the 2005 Caribbean coral-bleaching event. This study provides insight into the effects of continued seawater warming and subsequent coral bleaching events in the Caribbean and highlights the need to understand links between coral bleaching and disease. ?? The Author(s) 2009.

Coral Reefs↗
USGS2006

Vegetation classification for south Florida natural areas

Introduction A critical component of any ecological restoration program is documenting the temporal changes in the spatial extent, pattern, and proportion of plant communities within the landscape. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP - www.evergladesplan.org), authorized as part of the Water Resources and Development Act (WRDA) of 2000 (U.S. Congress, 2000), is an $8 billion hydrologic restoration project for all of south Florida. CERP includes 68 separate projects to be managed over the next 30 years by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD), the U. S. Army Corp of Engineers (USACE), and other State and Federal agencies. Restoration Coordination and Verification (RECOVER) is a system-wide program of the CERP, designed to organize, manage, and provide the highest quality scientific and technical support during implementation of the restoration program (RECOVER, in prep.). It is the role of RECOVER to develop and implement a system-wide Monitoring and Assessment Plan (MAP) (RECOVER, 2004) and to document how well the CERP is meeting its objectives for ecosystem restoration. One critical component of the MAP is vegetation mapping to document changes in the spatial extent, pattern, and proportion of plant communities within the Everglades landscape. A major aspect of the vegetation mapping project was determining a classification system for labeling vegetation categories utilizing a grid method. The grid method was created specifically for use in the CERP RECOVER vegetation monitoring and assessment project (Rutchey and others, in prep). The CERP RECOVER vegetation mapping project utilizes aerial photography and photointerpretation techniques (with ground truthing) to identify and label vegetation classes. A classification system that had sufficient flexibility and detail to enable the designation of vegetation classes using various remote sensing platforms and identification techniques needed to be developed. The classification system had to be hierarchical, represent distinct ecological communities, individual species, and physical characteristics such as density and height. In addition, it was desirable to have a classification system that allowed exotic species and cattail to be identified using density classes. The classification system was developed specifically for peninsular south Florida and the Florida Keys, from Lake Okeechobee in the north to Key West in the south (Figure 1). Specific areas of interest include Everglades National Park, Big Cypress National Preserve, Biscayne National Park, Florida Panther National Wildlife Refuge, Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, the State of Florida Water Conservation Areas, Holeyland Wildlife Management Area, Rotenberger Wildlife Management Area, J.W. Corbett Wildlife Management Area, Pal-Mar Wildlife Management Area, the Lake Okeechobee Littoral Zones, and additional coastal wetlands of south eastern Miami-Dade County. In addition to being used for mapping of CERP affected areas, the National Park Service-South Florida/Caribbean Network is using the classification for mapping the remaining areas of Everglades National Park and Big Cypress National Preserve outside the CERP footprint, Florida Panther National Wildlife Refuge, Biscayne National Park, and Dry Tortugas National Park.

Florida↗